Shaw66
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With the Clay Thing last week I didn't think there was enough fault to lay on anyone; it was just a play which didn't come off. Here I think otherwise : Taylor threw to the pylon, cheating just a bit to the inside to lead away from the cornerback. Jones ran tight to the sideline out at the five yard line, looked back for the pass over his right shoulder, took one stumbling step and jumped up vertically. However with just another stride the ball would have dropped right over his shoulder for an easy touchdown. ZJ did an awkward job tracking the pass and misjudged badly making a play on the ball. No one knows where the route was supposed to go, but if it to the pylon, Taylor's pass was better than Jones' route - even if you don't assume Taylor was purposely throwing Jones away from the coverage. Every game every Sunday receivers running deep make adjustments on the ball. It's a basic receiver skill with a pass plus-minus forty yards thru the air.
Thanks for this. I only saw the play once, at a sports bar, and I've wondered a lot about it. It IS like the Clay play last week - none us really knows what was expected of the players on that play. I think Taylor has good accuracy, especially deep, so part of me wants to think that he put that ball where he wanted to and it was all on Jones. It looked to me like Jones didn't adjust to the ball as well as he should have - he had time to track it and he had space to operate in. In other words, he made it a more difficult catch than it needed to be.
One reason I feel good about the team is that I think with six or eight more weeks experience, and certainly next year, Taylor and Jones and Matthews will be fully on the same page on plays like that. Jones is learning the league and the position, Taylor is learning the offense and the receivers. Why do I think they'll improve? Because the level of discipline these guys are demonstrating makes me think that over time they'll get it all down pat.
I have two words for you in regards to the offensive line, Aaron Kromer. He was so good at what he does and it was a shame to lose him even under contract. Castillo is a huge step back and I will keep saying it. Now with that said a healthy Glenn makes a big difference too and I should think Henderson if he gets back to playing condition would be an enormous upgrade over Mills.
I don't pretend to know the answer, and yours is certainly a good possible explanation.
Rarely do I change my mind from anything I have red here but you have got me thinking, it is entirely possible it was Zay Jones fault and that pass was exactly where and when it was supposed to be. I never noticed the stumble but i see it now
I agree. I don't know, and I'd love to hear the coaches talk about it. That's not stuff they share with us.
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I agree with the optimistic outlook. Maybe it is because I had no expectations for this season anyways, but I watched the game with very little frustration. I see the big picture like you do.
Big picture: we have a new offensive scheme. Our #1 WR was picked up weeks before the season and missed all of preseason and training camp. Our #2 WR is a rookie still learning his way around the NFL - 2 balls that hit him in the hands ended up as incompletions including a possible game winner.
The game, again, came down to missed opportunities. In addition to the 2 Zay drops, DiMarco dropped a clean ball for a would-be 3rd down conversion. On a 4th and 1 at midfield (I loved the decision to go for it) we draw up a pitch to Shady in the backfield and Carolina ate it right up.
Our 1st down offense was putrid, play calling and execution. In the 1st half we may as well have started on 2nd down. A couple drives we may as well have started on 3rd down! Those critical drops were critical because they came on 3rd downs or at the very end of the game. What if we ran the last play of the game on 2nd down in the 2nd quarter? We leave ourselves with so little room for error. In a rush-centric offense, the drops count more.
But it's a road NFC game. This is as unimportant as it gets for the final standings. Still it would have been nice to have one more win to cushion against later in the season. I will be looking forward and hoping the offense can get its act together. Next week is a must-win.
Thanks for the post, Happy. All good points.
I liked going for it on fourth down, too. That play call looks brilliant when it works, awful when it doesn't. I think good teams have gotten smart to to that play.
Zay's in the big leagues now, and we only can wait to see if he raises his game to the necessary level.
I've been quite confident that the offensive problems under Rex were largely because of play design and play calling. I feel the same way after two games this season. There MUST be ways to get Matthews and Jones and Holmes more than once or twice a game. Unless, of course, as some will say, they ARE open and SHOULD be thrown to, but Tyrod isn't finding them. I don't know the answer to that. I think six weeks from now we'll know, because Tyrod will be finding them or Peterman will be playing.
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The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66
Welcome to the NFL
The Bills opened their season last week with a win over the New York Jets. This week they played a real NFL team, the Carolina Panthers, the result was different. This week the Bills began to learn how far they must progress to be competitive in the league.
There isn’t much to say. When your defense gives up less than 5 yards per pass and less than 3 yards per rush, you win, right? Not when your offense is worse.
Either the Bills just don’t have an offense, or they have one that needs a lot of work. It’s frustrating, really; all last season the Bills needed the defense to show up to make the playoffs. The defense didn’t. Now the Bills are getting the defense and the offense is in the tank.
It’s almost always tough transitioning to a new coach and a new GM. The Bills are no exception. They installed a new offensive scheme and a new defensive scheme. They moved on from several players with the potential to be big contributors – Watkins, Gilmore, Darby, Gillislee, Woods and replaced them with some veterans and some rookies. In a situation like this, there are going to be growing pains.
And it doesn’t help when games two, three and four on the schedule are against recent Super Bowl teams, two on the road. If the offense could do nothing against Carolina, how will it match up with the Broncos? How about on the road in Atlanta?
I like this team. I may not like it in December, but I like it now. I can live with the growing pains, because this team gives me a good feeling. For example:
Penalties. Two weeks in a row, very few penalties. The players are playing with discipline.
Tackling. Every coach talks about having a defense that runs to the ball, but talk is cheap. The Bills defenders actually DO run to the ball, and it’s great to watch. These guys tackle, they tackle in the open field, and they gang tackle. They play with discipline
Composure. These Bills know that not every play will go well, and when a play fails, they get up, go back to the huddle and get ready for the next play. LeSean McCoy had every reason to be frustrated Sunday, because he had no place to run. The frustration never showed. Discipline.
Confidence. All game, even on offense, the team had the look and feel of a team that was in control, that was confident the next play would work. After an entire day of failure, when the offense needed a touchdown to salvage the game, they played like a team that knew how to get it done. Didn’t close it out, but didn’t go four and out with two sacks. They seriously threatened to win the game. Discipline.
The Bills look and feel like a team that can win. Of course, that’s not enough. They must actually win, win more than they lose, win games on the road, win games against good teams, win all the games they should and a few that they shouldn’t. Until that happens, it’s nice that the Bills are likeable but it isn’t enough.
Sunday, the Bills defense was great. No touchdowns, no big chunk plays. Six sacks for 50 yards with relatively limited blitzing. If the offense had done its job, the time of possession would have been even and the Panthers would have been held under 200 yards offense.
This defense looks a lot like Jauron’s defense in the sense that it takes a conservative approach: no big plays, challenge the opponent to go the length of the field on long drives, challenge the opponent to convert plenty of third downs. McDermott has better players than Jauron had, especially up front, so his defense can give the opponent fits.
A lot of guys made defensive plays against the Panthers. Someday before the end of the season, I should watch Kyle Williams on every play, because he is a rare football player. He makes plays every week. He does it with strength, he does it with quickness, he does it with determination. He did it again Sunday.
Jordan Poyer makes plays.
Tre’Davious White is around the ball a lot. He isn’t making a lot of plays, not yet, but he doesn’t look like a rookie, either. As he learns the scheme and the game, I expect we will start to see some big plays from him.
Humber is growing on me. Solid.
Shaq is starting to make some noise.
The offense, of course, is an entirely different story. The defense has success on most plays; the offense doesn’t. Ten first downs isn’t enough. Three yards per rush attempt isn’t enough. Three yards per pass attempt isn’t enough. The quarterback leading the team in rushing. Those stats scream two words: Offensive line.
I don’t know who played well on the line, if anyone. I don’t know what’s wrong. I do know that for an offense to be that, either the offensive line has to be bad or the skill position players have to be totally inept. The receivers aren’t inept, the running backs aren’t, and Taylor isn’t either. The line has to be better. Good luck getting better against the Broncos..
Tyrod Taylor? It’s hard to know. He looks like he’s in control. He looks like he’s decisive, reading defenses and getting the ball out. And he was under a lot of pressure. But for the second week in a row, he’s looked more like a game manager than a franchise quarterback. Simply put, he didn’t make enough throws to win the game. He didn’t throw enough to wide outs – was that Tyrod or was that the play calling? He missed opportunities throughout the game, but the most important pass, the last offensive play of the game for the Bills, was the one that really mattered.
The defense played so well for the entire game that somehow, almost miraculously, the Bills still had a chance to win with two minutes left in the game. Taylor managed that final drive well enough, and on fourth down with seconds left, Dennison had a play that would get Zay Jones open near the goal line, perhaps into the end zone. It was the kind of play that winning teams always seem to have in their back pockets, the play they call when the game’s on the line. The Bills had it, Jones was open, and Taylor didn’t make the throw. The throw wasn’t horrible; it was catchable, but it would have been a truly great catch. Did Jones misplay it? Maybe. Even if he did, he got his hands on the ball and could have caught it. But great teams rely on their quarterbacks, not their rookie wideouts, to win games. Taylor got exactly the look he wanted, and he didn’t make the throw.
I’m not giving up on Taylor. If Holmes had simply made his cut without pushing off, Taylor’s perfect throw to the sideline would have been a completion, and the Bills would have had four shots at the end zone from the 22. Taylor has skills, he’s learning the offense, he’s working with new receivers. Let’s see how he looks six weeks from now.
The offense will improve as the season progresses; the question is how much. A lot will depend on the offensive line, and a lot will depend on Taylor.
I like this team.
GO BILLS!!!
The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.
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Thanks for the write up, due to Irma, unable to go to the Bills Bar (which was closed) in St Pete, good to see that the improvement in the Team especially Taylor, on to Carolina. Go Bills (side note, just got power 3 hrs ago, dodged a big bullet)
Too bad you missed it. It was a good game to watch. Bills actually won without relying on screwups by the other team or by having a lucky break.
Glad you dodged that bullet.
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Man, I am puzzled by you. You have good thoughts on other things, but I am a bit taken back by some of the conclusions you are taking no this Clay play. 5 feet? REALLY?
You have this mythological idea that Clay did a 48" vertical or something on this play. He barely jumped, and he didn't even have to jump. And Clays hands were literally eye level. Its mathematically impossible for the pass to be remotely close to 5 feet off. I mean if the ball is literally a foot away it hits him right in the chest.
Saying the ball was five feet off target is so over the top and ludricrous its like someone claiming the Bills are gonna go undefeated and win the SB this year. In fact, if the ball is 5 feet in any direction from where it actually was, then Clay likely doesn't even get his hands on the ball or its picked off before Clay touches it.
Again, all good dude, we wont and don't need to agree on this particular topic, but man this 5 feet stuff now is just crazy to me. I still don't know why you are going to such extremes and greatly over exaggerating the height and difficulty of that catch to excuse Clay either. Almost everyone agrees that Clay has to make that catch no matter what, even if the pass could have been improved by slightly better placement or coming out a half second earlier. Nothing changes the fact that its almost universally agreed that Clay needs to complete the catch there. For some reason you are one of only a few people that refuses to accept Clay missed a VERY catchable ball and it cost us points.
No disrespect, but I am glad you are not our TE coach or OC because we need our coaches to both hold Clay accountable there and not go easy on him. Its way too common of an occurrence for our highly paid TE to have lapses in key moments like that. And like I said before, if that pass is not in his catch radius nor expected to be, then I would without question cut him tomorrow. I obviously believe it to be one he can and should catch, so not saying to cut him, just saying if you think thats not an expected catch then you should be calling for him to be cut.
You just can't read.
48" jump. I didn't say that.
I gave you the math. The ball was 8 feet off the ground and is supposed to be 3 feet off the ground. Very simple to get to 5 feet from there.
I've gone to NO extremes to excuse Clay. I've said repeatedly he should catch the ball. Somehow your brain translates that into excusing Clay.
You don't know me. One thing about me is I care very little about tight ends. The QB is literally 10 times more important to the team than the tight end. Therefore I care 10 times more about whether Taylor executed properly than about whether Clay executed properly. My comments in this thread are about Tyrod, not about Clay.
I will bet you $500 that the coaches have talked to and worked with Taylor about the flaws in his execution of this play. (They've talked to Clay, too, for sure, but there isn't much to say to him other than get yourself ready and catch it.) With Taylor there are multiple little skills involved in that play that he should and can improve. That's what I've been talking about all along.
I'm not trying to blame anyone or excuse anyone, and I've never said anything about that. You just have an active imagination.
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There's been enough detailed analysis of this play to play to reach War & Peace length. It's been an interesting debate to follow, particularly because it's been more civil & factually-oriented than a lot of topics, particularly concerning Taylor. Whether commentators have blamed Taylor, Clay, or some combination thereof, they've dug deep into the minutia to support their point - one side answering the other in kind.
All of which leads me to believe there isn't a lot of there there. If you blame Clay, you still concede it was a difficult catch from someone who was immediately after hammered. If you blame Taylor, you still concede he didn't have any ideal place to put the ball. I'm not disparaging all the analysis, which has been very informative to read. But given the degree people have needed to qualify their conclusion on who's to blame, there just ain't a lot of blame left.....
Exactly.
The interesting thing is the coaches reached this conclusion after about 90 seconds of film review. That's why they're pros and we are amateurs.
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Geez. That pass got some miles on it, huh?
I get the timing argument. Taylor could have thrown it a little earlier. But no one seems to know if Jones or Clay was the 1st read. Looks like Jones to me, but I don't know. Do you?
If Jones was the 1st read, we're picking over likely a fraction of a second when Taylor should have thrown the ball earlier. We're fans so we can nitpick like that. But maybe it should just make us appreciate how damn difficult the position is...?
And regardless, isn't it still something Taylor seems to be progressing on? Throwing over the middle and going through reads is something absolutely no QB gets 100% right, including Brady.
Seems good we're nitpicking this.
However, Clay should have and could have caught that ball. Last year in the 2nd NE game I spent a long time and a number of posts critiquing a gorgeous bomb that hit Clay right in the hand that he couldn't pull in largely because I think he lacks good hands combined with ball awareness. And that's what came into play here, again.
Is blame supposed to be adjusted based on the WRs or should all NFL WRs/TEs be expected to catch footballs that don't involve acrobatic feats?
Nice post, transplant. Several things about this I agree with.
I don't think Jones was primary. May have been Clay, but Taylor looked right first, I think to verify that the other guys were covered up.
That fraction of a second is what it's all about, Unlike your job and mine, Taylor's job requires that he be one of the 10 or 15 best people in the world. Being 50th isn't good enough. That fraction of a second is the difference between being in the top 15 and the top 50 or 100. It's a lot of little things that add up to making Rodgers and Brady who they are. To Taylor's credit, he's demonstrated the kind of work ethic those other guys have; Taylor works every day to get better. And, yes, I think he is progressing. I also think he's now in an offense that's better planned and better coached, so it's easier to have success on a lot of plays. That, in turn, makes the few difficult plays, like this one, more important. McCown can complete the same passes as Taylor on the easy plays. If Taylor wants to be something more than McCown, he needs to master those fractions of seconds.
And yes, this play does show how complicated and how hard it is. Taylor figured out the right throw. Did he figure it out as quickly as he needs to? Don't know. Assume he did. Then he needed to figure out how to get the ball to Clay, which we can see in the video involved recognizing how the pocket was moving and stepping out to have a clear throwing lane. He didn't do that, which forced him to throw high. That's a lot of thinking that has to be done almost instinctively, and Taylor didn't quite do it.
However, he did it well enough to get the ball to a place where Clay could have caught it. Clay's a good but not elite tight end. He doesn't have the body control of a wide out, and getting his hands up and behind him, if only a little, makes that a hard catch for him. That too is the difference between playing in the league and being an elite player. There are a half dozen tight ends who mike that catch regularly. Clay isn't yet, probably never will be, elite like that.
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So TT was a little high. Clay still had his hands on it. How many passes did Brady miss?
1 pass get over it.
It was one of the most important plays in the game. It was the kind of play that separates the good teams from the mediocre teams. The Bills failed to execute.
It's worth talking about. If you can't understand why it's worth talking or you're not interested, don't join in.
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Not to beat a dead horse here as we already agreed to disagree hahaha...but where did you come up with this "missed by 5 feet" stat? Thats is about an 80% exaggeration. Do you realize how big 5 feet is? I mean again, clay got both hands on the ball and in front of his face while facing the direction the ball was coming. I mean if the ball is foot more left it hits Clay in the numbers.
Five feet comes from this:
Clay jumped. The ball hit his hands above his head, not in front of his face. If a 6'3" guy jumps and puts his hands over his head to contact the ball, his hands are 8 feet off the ground even if he only goes 6 or 8 inches airborne.. The throw to that receiver is supposed to be down, at his waist. His waist is about 3 feet off the ground. 8 feet (where the ball was) - 3 feet (where the ball should have been) = 5 feet. That's how I got to 5 feet.
As I've said in this discussion, the continuing review of this play has caused me to realize that because the passing lane was blocked, Taylor COULDN'T have thrown it low - he had to throw over Glenn and his man. That tells me that Taylor's inaccuracy on that play was not the result of a mechanical failure - he threw it the only way he could. The problem, then, wasn't inaccuracy - it was his failure to maneuver in the pocket to open the throwing lane. He had time to do that after he'd identified Clay as the right target on the play.
Now, as I've also said, I'm a Taylor fan and I continue to think that he can be the long-term solution at QB. I find this play interesting because that skill, stepping up and/or sliding in the pocket to access the best throwing lanes, is something that we see the top QBs do. Brees, particularly, is a master at it, because given his size, his downfield vision is more limited than some of the larger QBs. Taylor has the same limitation and needs the same skill.
There's another important aspect of that play that has been mentioned in this thread - risk taking. Taylor's stats to this point in his career are very good, in a significant part, by his low interception numbers. He's created those numbers by not taking chances. That's not good enough - the best QBs are risk takers; they learn when to take chances. If you never take them, you never learn how to take them. This play was one of those plays. I have no way of knowing, but I would guess that last season Taylor would not have thrown that ball - he didn't have the look at Clay that he wanted, he didn't have much more time, and he didn't have any other good options (like you, I don't think Jones was an option at all). Last season he would have thrown it away or run. Sunday Taylor risked three points by deciding to throw, and in fact he lost the three points. But I commend him for taking the risk, because he has to learn. I'd guess he knew it was a tough throw, he threw it about as well as he could given the passing lane problem, and he gave Clay a decent chance to catch the ball.
I really think that what Taylor and the coaches talked about Monday or Tuesday was how to improve his ability to move around in the pocket - how to recognize opportunities and how to fight the instinct to back up. On this play, a half step forward instead of a half step back would have made it an easy throw.
Enjoyed reading this.. Thank You!!!
Enjoyed reading this... Thank You!!!
You're welcome.
You're welcome.
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I think all the Tolbert hate is foolish.
First, he's on the team because McD wanted a great veteran presence. Tolbert brings that.
Second, did you know that Tolbert is currently 21at in the league in rushing yards per attempt. That means that he's gaining more yards per attempt than 10 or 15 STARTERS in the league, and you're complaining about him. (By the way, McCoy is fourth and Taylor is sixth, so the Bills have three of the top 21 rushers in yards per attempt.
Maybe it's time to focus on something that matters.
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Please just stop with this quibbling at the margins. So the pass was a little high and a little behind Clay. So what? That is far more the rule with every QB than the "perfectly thrown pass."
The niggling on TT's "shortcomings" includes someone posting earlier in the thread that he should have gotten the ball out a 1/4 of a second quicker! What?
And "the Zay was open" critics seem not to have noticed he was actually well covered...until TT committed to Clay. The defender switching to Clay is what opened up Zay. Considering the pettiness and harping on miniscule flaws, imagine he'd thrown to Zay, with a defender in front of him. The odds of a TD were low and that of an interception were high. The critics surely would be screaming that Clay was wide open and TT stinks.
The guy can't win with some of you. I wonder why that is.
I'm a Tyrod fan. And I think, and I said, he had a good game.
But football games generally turn on five or six key plays, and the interception was one of those plays. It's worth discussion.
And in the case of the Bills, it's worth discussion because most people agree that the best way to build a good team is to have a really good quarterback. Whether Taylor can be a really good quarterback turns on little things. Among the things people think needs to improve are accuracy on short balls, pocket management and quick decision making and throwing. Missing by 5 feet on a pass 10 yards down field is a big miss. Drifting back and left and thereby missing the throwing lane is a problem. Throwing late because he doesn't have a good throwing lane is a problem.
I'm grateful for the discussion here, even if it did bother you, because it helped me understand what happened on the play. I still don't agree with everyone about what happened on the play, but my understanding of Tyrod's play has been enhanced.
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Kind of an interesting comparison between Tyrod and Kaepernick
Lets compare these 2 players stats. This is over the same period of time. Leaving the politics out of it is there really a big statistical difference between both QB's? When you consider Colin's salary could be in the $5-$6 million base salary range with Bonuses which one would you rather have? Kaepernick is not good enough for a team to pick him up yet Tyrod is our starting QB.
Kap
6-4 225, 29 - 30 win record (this includes a 1-10 season)
69 games played, 59.8% completion, 72 td's 30 int
Rushing - 2300 yards, 13 Td's
Sacked 171 times
4-2 playoff record
Tyrod
6-0 221, 14-14 record
29 games played, 62.3% completion, 37 td's 14 Int
Rushing - 1248 yards in 234 attempts, 11 Td's
Sacked 78 times
Cam Newton
94 games, 58.4% completion, 138 Tds 79 INT
3569 yards rushing in 695 carries, 72 TDs
Sacked 221
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Zay was not remotely close to open when TT was throwing the pass, and Zay only became open because TT began to throw to TT. So for sake of discussion, ZJ was not a factor in this play at all in terms of being an open target.
Regardless if he was always going to throw to Clay or not (all speculation on who his first read was or intended target is as none of us know), he put the ball right in Clays 2 hands. People can the make the case it could have been a second sooner or in a slightly easier place to catch it all they want, but thats not how the NFL works. Rogers, Brady, Bress, Ryan, Montanna don't put the ball in the exact most ideal spot on every throw.
Again, if Clays dependency on catching that pass relies on the easiest and simplest ball placement then Clay should be cut immediately because that is not how the NFL works. You must make that catch on a 7 yard pass that hits you in both hands in the end zone. That pass was fully in the catch radius of Clay, and if that is not in Clays catch radius he should not be our starting TE.
What baffles me the most is this is the kind of throw people have been clamoring for TT to make...to not just throw it away, run when someone is open, or be too safe...they want him to fire a strike and take the opportunities that are there. He did that, Clay whiffed and yet the excuses keep coming for Clay and now people are complaining TT made that throw.
Im glad you see that now, but I still think its the right throw and one I want him to make every time. I just expect Clay or whoever the target is to not let it go off both hands into a defender. That pass has to be in the catch radius of the receiving target at the NFL level, especially a starter making as much as Clay does.
I really think you aren't seeing the catch of that ball correctly at all. It was higher than you keep saying, and it was behind him. As I've said before, it may have been that Taylor expected Clay to stop running and Clay didn't. It wasn't an easy catch, and unless your tight end is Jimmy Graham, it isn't surprising that the tight end didn't catch it. Should have, I agree, but it wasn't a gimme.
I'm now more convinced that the whole play was a Tyrod problem. Shouldn't have drifted back - should have moved up to create a throwing lane. And should have thrown it earlier. Those are all things TT has been accused of - not managing the pocket properly and being slow to pull the trigger.
As you said, I think, long ago in this thread, TT will say it was on him and CC will say it was on him, and I think they're both right.
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You make an interesting point about the throwing lane. When I look at the replay, it's pretty clear that Glenn and his man are right in the throwing lane. Taylor COULDN'T throw it low with any zip on the ball.
What Taylor should have done, it's easy to see in retrospect, is step up into the pocket instead of taking a step back and to his left. That additional drop left Glenn right in the line of the throw. If he'd stepped up a step, the throwing lane was wide open.
I say easy to see in retrospect, because at full speed, under fire, stepping up isn't the obvious move. I've been one who's advocated deeper drops for Tyrod, so that he can see the rush and escape more easily, but dropping deeper got him in a little trouble here.
Given this view, I'd say Taylor knew he was taking a risk and let the pass go. The conservative move would have been to throw it away and take the three points, but I believe you can't learn to make the hard throws unless you take the risk and suffer the consequences when it doesn't work out. This was a good risk to take - 7 vs 3 points. Taylor watched the film this week and learned some things from that play.
Huh? Clay wasn't even his first read and in this picture he is not staring down Clay he is literally in motion to throw the pass to Clay. You have to look at your target you are throwing to. And again, Clay was open, so this is in no way a bad read in the first place. Defender did not come close to touching the ball, it went off Clays hands.
You're right about this decision making. Clay wasn't the first read, and Clay was open. If he wasn't going to throw to Clay, he needed to begin scrambling. Not likely he could run it in, and it isn't clear where he was going to find an open receiver. Throwing to Clay was the right decision.
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I hope you're right.
You and me and about a million other Bills fans.
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See your point. Also felt Clay could have caught it. My pews wee coach always used to tell us if your can get your hands on it you should catch it.
Overall a solid, workmanlike victory. TT is what he is, I tend to embrace the unique things about him like his running ability and live with the negatives.
I'm more hopeful about TT than that. I'm not convinced he has any serious negatives. I think he will continue to get better and by the time his legs give out he may have the kind of savvy that Brees has.
That throw wasn't a good throw, but there weren't many others in that category on Sunday. I calculated his passer rating if he'd completed that pass for a TD, and it would have been in the 120s or 130s. I posted it somewhere. That shows how good his day was. When you add the impact of his running, I don't see anything I'd call a negative.
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I agree about the coaches. But sometimes I wonder if we overanalyze what QBs do. Sometimes they throw in a split second and then accuracy will be a little off.
That's generally true but it's also the difference between average play and great play. Taylor's job is to be accurate. He wasn't rushed. He missed by 4 or 5 feet too high. That is not NFL accuracy at the highest level.
And his job is to be sure that whatever else happens there us not a turnover. He put it in a position that led to a turnover.
Yes, everyone makes mistakes, but these guys are measured against perfection. Taylor wasn't perfect here.
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This is one of things we'll never know for sure just watching the tape but this is what Cover1 thinks and I trust his judgments as much as I would anyone's. His thinking is that the safety Jamal Adams would have nailed Clay. So Tyrod intentionally threw a back shoulder throw leading Clay away from the safety. Adams actually played this perfectly. He's the reason fans think Zay Jones was wide open (he wasn't) and why the play wasn't a TD.
Like I said, I'd like to know what the coaches told Tyrod.
But this makes sense. Someone else said Tyrod did what you say expecting Clay to "settle into that spot instead of to continue running. Since Clay didn't slow down, it became a tougher catch for him - if he'd stopped, he could have gone airborne for easily and it's a score.
If Clay was supposed to make that read and stop, then Tyrod's throw behind him was the right throw. Still too high - especially when the receiver is settling in front of a zone like that, the throw is supposed to be down.
There are so many plays like this that I'd like to hear what the coaches say. They know what the players were supposed to do and they watch the films and see whether the player did it. We all just speculate, except for the occasional poster who has some serious football experience - like years playing or coaching D-I.
I think it's all overanalysis. I think the throw was where it was because that's where he threw it, and I think Clay didn't catch it because it hit his hands wrong.
Right. Not the way the coaches look at it, but you're right.
The important point, however, is that the players' jobs on that play was to avoid the turnover to preserve the scoring opportunity. They failed.
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It was great to take care of business and beat a team that many expect to land the #1 overall pick in next years draft. But the next three weeks will essentially determine this teams fate for the rest of the season.
On paper the Bills should lose against the Panthers, Broncos and Falcons which would translate into a 1-3 record. But thankfully the games aren't played on paper.
And as of right now I still think the Panthers and Falcons are guaranteed losses by default since they both road games against vastly superior teams and QB's. Denver looked pretty good last night but it was at home and I don't think Simian is anywhere close to the type of QB's Newton and Ryan are.
Still thinking 2-2 is best case which would ensure the season isn't lost by Halloween, but if we do lose all 3 then it's time to start thinking about the bills own chances of landing the #1 overall pick next year.
I don't agree with the title or with the notion that the Panthers or Falcons are vastly superior. They may be, but as you say, we won't know until the games are played.
I don't agree with the title because EVERY team in the NFL is changing over the fist 4 to 8 weeks of the season. The good teams emerge later in the season, as they have gotten really good at executing what the coaches have given them. When the Bills D was so good under Schwartz a few years ago, it wasn't until the second half of the season that the D got dominant.
We won't know whether the Jets are as bad as everyone thinks until they've played a half dozen games.
It's especially true with a new HC and new offensive and defensive systems. We won't know what the Bills are like until the players really settle into the systems.
So the Bills could start 1-3 and still be a good team in December. The problem with starting 1-3 is that it makes it difficult to make the playoffs, but that doesn't mean they should tank after that start. Most of these players will be on the team next season, and tanking for the last 12 games means that you've given up the opportunity for those players to learn and grow in the system as much as possible.
I agree, Panthers, Broncos, Falcons looks like a really tough stretch of games, but you don't know until the Bills play them. Maybe one or more of those teams isn't as good as we think they are. Panthers lost their defensive coordinator, except for short stretches Newton hasn't been a better QB than Taylor. Really, check the stats - lower career passer rating, never had a season with a higher passer rating than Tyrod, has lower yards per attempt rushing than Taylor. Yes, it's on the road.
Broncos have a really suspect QB, and what looks to be a mediocre offense. Bills offense is perfect to play Denver - they aren't very good against the run, and the short passing game negates the pass rush.
Atlanta? Have they recovered from the Super Bowl? Their rushing defense isn't very good either.
Bottom line, the Bills could be 4-0 to start the season. Am I dreaming? Yes. I'd be happy to be 2-2, and that's what I expect. I don't think the Bills will lose the next three.
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No offense, but you are completely contradicting yourself in this statement. First, where does this false pretense come from that you keep saying that you are not supposed to throw the ball high? In no way is that actual football sense, in fact they have a term for specifically throwing the ball high to where ONLY your player can get to it and that his High Pointing.
I mean you literally say the QB is supposed to put the ball where only his target can get to it and that is 1 million percent exactly what TT did. You seem to think that because on a high pass a player can screw up and not catch it causing the ball to be tipped in the air is somehow disqualified as a location for putting the ball when that couldn't be further from the truth.
Furthermore, throwing to a HIGH spot in the End Zone is one of the most common type of throws period in the red zone passing. That is the entire point of having BIG targets at WR and TE...to specifically to be able to throw to them at a higher point where its harder for shorter DB's to to interfere with the play.
Again...I liked a lot of what you wrote on some other things, but you are way way off base with your assignment of blame on this play and your description of what "should" be done. Plus you literally keep contradicting yourself claiming it needs to be where only Clay can get it when that is EXACTLY where Clay got the ball...and right in BOTH hands directly in front of his face on a short Dagger route.
I should let this go, but I'm replying for several reasons:
1. I have a big ego. I like being right and I like arguing.
2. I learn things in these discussions.
3. Someone who reads this may learn something. YOU may learn something, but you seem more intent on arguing than listening and thinking.
4. Others may enjoy reading this, may even be amused by it.
Okay, are you ready? You really misunderstand some basic things about this aspect of football.
1. Where do I get the notion that the ball shouldn't be thrown high? It's very simple: quarterbacks are taught that when the defenders are BETWEEN the QB and the receiver, to throw it high so only the receiver can get it. When the defenders are BEHIND the receiver, QBs are supposed to throw low so that only the receiver can get it. Throwing high to receivers when the defenders are BEHIND the receiver leads to the possibility of tipped balls and INTs, which is EXACTLY what happened here. If Taylor had thrown low to Clay, there may or may not have been a completion, but there would have beeen no interception, and the Bills would have kicked a field goal.
The best example of this general rule is this exact case. When the receivers are at the back of end zone, the defenders are in front and the QB is supposed to throw high. If the ball goes off the receiver's hands, it carries out end zone and there's no INT.
But when the receiver is on the goal line, as in this case, the defenders typically are behind the receiver, so the QB is supposed to throw low.
2. There was no reason for Taylor to throw high. There's no advantage to throwing high in that situation, and there's a higher probability of an INT. You seem to think because it's OK in some circumstances to throw high that it's OK in this instance, and it isn't. Much of football decision making is about probabilities, and this case is a good example. THe probability of completing the pass is the same, whether it's thrown high or low, so long as the ball is within a reasonable catching radius. The probability of an INT is higher if the QB throws high. So the QB is taught to throw low. Simple.
3. You don't understand what high-pointing is. That is a term used to describe what the RECEIVER does, not what the QB does. High-pointing describes the receiving jumping to catch a pass at the highest point off the ground possible. By high-pointing, the receiver to reduce or eliminate the number of defenders who can make a play on the ball by virture of the receiver's height and jumping ability. It's a technique that is applied on passes with air uner them, because it's only those passes that give the receiver options as to where to catch the ball. The ball is coming down, the receiver could try to catch the ball when it is 6 feet, 8 feet or 10 feet off the ground. The best play is to high point it, to catch it 10 feet off the ground. A receiver running downfield has a chance to do that by jumping earlier rather than continuing to run and letting the ball fall to him.
This wasn't one of those situations. Clay was running across the field and the throw was going downfield. Clay's only option was to catch the ball at the point wher his path and the ball's path intersected.
High pointing is irrelevant. And it has nothing to do with how Taylor should throw the ball on this kind of play.
4. You say the point of having big targets is so they can out-jump defenders. That's true. But that doesn't mean that all throws to the end zone are supposed to be thrown high. The ball has to be thrown where the probabilities are best. See above.
5. You say throwing high to receivers in the end zone is a common practice. That's also true. But that is true when the receivers are deep in the end zone and the defenders are in front of the receiver. It is not true when the receiver is in the front of the end zone and the defenders are behind him. See above.
Rephrasing an old proverb, Abraham Lincoln once said "better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt."
Regarding the DTs, particularly Dareus, we were absolutely incredible against the run game. That tackle for Kyle he referred to is, from when I can remember the only play he made during the game. Let me rephrase, the only tackle he made in the game or the only thing that pops on a stat sheet. DTs are space eaters. I don't think we should be overly concerned right now. If our run defense looks this good, I'm betting the DTs are doing their jobs.
Great post, as always, Shaw
Thanks.
I agree with this. Tackles don't pile up stats, and they can have very good games without ever being visible to most of us unsophisticated viewers of the game. It takes some real discipline to see what the DTs are doing while watching the games. Kyle's play was easy because the stunt put him outside the DE and then running free in the backfield.
The Jets had so little success running the ball, Hughes, Dareus, Kyle and Shaq had to have played well. They either were making tackles or making it possible for linebackers and DBs to make tackles.
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The ball is about to be release in the still. Tyrod has comiited to throwing it to clay well before this still. His drive foot is already coming off the field. You have not clue what is going on in that still you posted.
I'm with you. TT already is committed to Clay in that still.
But QCity is correct about ball placement. That ball has to be thrown low so that only Clay can get it. It is NOT supposed to be thrown high, for the exact reason that played out here. Throw it high and you've turned it into a jump ball.
And the notion that it was at eye level is ridiculous. Clay jumped and reached over his head to make a play on the ball. It simply was one of Taylor's poorer throws of the day. Could Clay have caught it? Sure. But that doesn't mean it was a good throw.
There's also the question of whether Taylor read this play as quickly as he needed to. The still makes it look like he did, but it isn't easy to tell. I'd love to know what the coaches said to Taylor after watching the film.
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I think they like the contrast in running styles between McCoy and Tolbert because Tolbert is probably a much more physical tackle, while Shady requires discipline and technique to bottle in. Two entirely different approaches to tackling those two guys and that type of stuff gets into the heads of defenders. Tackling is the most important part of defense and for the best defenders it's almost instinctive, when you add an element of thinking to an instinctive player you've impacted their effectiveness and you keep them on their toes. I'm not calling the Bills genius for implementing such a 1-2 punch, because it's not like they are innovating here, but I get why they'd want Tolbert spelling McCoy, and I was impressed with his involvement in the offense.
I'm not ready to call this as an arrow pointing up moment for the Bills, but it is refreshing to see good coaching and team discipline on display, especially on the D. I was worried about the Offense taking a step backwards, but I may have come to the realization that maybe the talent is there to be successful with whatever scheme they run as long as they put emphasis on running the ball.
I think it IS an arrow up moment for the Bills precisely for the reasons you give - good coaching and team discipline. Not saying this is a playoff team, but if the team is organized and disciplined, you can add talent and get better. Last season I had the feeling that Rex wasn't going to win regardless of the talent the Bills might get. So I'm definitely feeling good.
This Sunday will tell a lot. I actually care less about winning than I do about the Bills being competitive. Can this team, with last season's talent and this season's coaching, compete with a team with some big offensive threats and a good defense? If the Bills can compete, we've got something to get excited about. If the Bills can win, well, then it's a whole new ballgame.
if TT had thrown it to Clay as soon as he made his break it would have been a TD
I think you're right. Problem was that Clay wasn't the first option. Maybe Taylor came to him late, maybe he was too slow recognizing what was happening and he should have seen Clay earlier. No way for us to know.
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I've been waiting for a good clip of this.
Think Clay should've had it but I'm not sure that's a TD if he does catch it.
I think you're right. But that's one thing that isn't Taylor's fault.
Clay definitely could have caught it, but the throw wasn't where it was supposed to be.
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Problem is, Rivera knows McD's defense inside and out, and he has Cam Newton to take advantage of Bills weaknesses.
i don't think there's an advantage.
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Welcome to the NFL
in The Stadium Wall Archives
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If the Bills are going to go 2-2 to open the season. I don't see any way to win in Atlanta.