Shaw66
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Posts posted by Shaw66
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1 hour ago, Sweats said:
Let's be honest, he's no Lynn Swann, however, he's a workhorse and he'll push for the extra yards.
I'm looking forward to the energy that Coleman and JA will bring to the field every week......they'll feed off each other and create something special.
After I watched his highlight reel, my reaction was "Mike Evans." He's not as big Evans, at least not yet, and he isn't quite as physically tough as Evans, but he makes you wonder why this guy is open so much, just like Evans. Not the fastest, not the quickest, not anything except rock solid catching ability.
Feed off each other is correct. Josh will love throwing to him, and if that's true, he'll be getting playing time sooner rather than later.
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32 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:
Week after the draft, after watching Keon, listening to him and reading about him all I can think of is Josh scramble play where he gets close to the sideline and unleashes 30-40 yard bomb to Keon who is "covered" but doesn't care and catches the damn ball for huge gain.
Everything won't be perfect but these plays will make up for it.
Season can't start soon enough!
You know, I really hadn't seen it until you described it. You're right!
He is most likely to become the answer to prayers. And when prayers start getting answered, Josh is unbeatable.
Of course all of this Keon will dominate talk is most likely wishful fan-think, and the reality may be uglier. But however it plays out, ultimately I think you're right - Josh and Keon are going to be a pair, the main event. The others will be role players in the big show - Kincaid and Shakir and Samuel. Even if it isn't a big deal in total yards over the season, some of the plays are going to be big plays. Whether he knew it or not, Josh has been waiting for a guy just like Keon.
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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think there is going to be one guy on this offense that defenses key in on every week like they did on Stef. Certainly not early in the year anyway. In a sense that might give us a little bit of an advantage early on in the season if Josh genuinely can spread the ball around. I expect at some point teams will revert to a "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam." But it will take some time for defenses to workout how this offense is going to run and if we can hit the ground ready to roll in week 1 that might even be in our favour.
This is a great description of how I see it, too. No one will be the key guy, until someone becomes a threat. The real question about the success of this group of receivers will be what they can do AFTER they go "don't let Samuel win deep and force Kincaid to break off his routes short rather than threaten the seam." How do they adjust and continue to have success? Put another way, if defenses are taking away what you do best, what or who allows you to take advantage of the defensive schemes they're using? That's when someone, Shakir or Samuel or Coleman or Kincaid has to step up.
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1 hour ago, Warcodered said:
Yeah people sounded like they thought FSU asked him to do a lot at FSU so he's already got a good understanding of the route tree. More than that from his interviews the guy seems very smart and having transferred he's already got experience learning a new system. If I had to guess what the big thing developing with him along the way will be it'll be technique. I just get the feeling he could really improve quickly.
And not simply technique, but getting used to the level of talent. He'll be covered MUCH better, every week, and that's what will force-feed him new and sharper technique. He'll need the enhanced skills to deal with the caliber of defender he'll see. That's hard work, raising your level of play like that. For a few, they're naturally there, but for a lot of rookies, it takes a year or two. The good news is that he seems understand completely that that is what he has to do. And he seems to have he mindset to get right to work at that goal.
I agree, he could improve quickly. The ingredients seem to be there for him to be really good as early as midseason. It's just that not everyone, ingredients or not, makes that leap that quickly.
The Bills would love it if he exploded, but I don't think they need that out of him. I think the Bills' plan is to get 700-900 yards out of him, beginning early in the season and building from there. They expect over 1000 from someone else - Shakir or Kincaid or Samuel, and 600-800 from the other two. One guy above 1000 and three others from maybe 600-900. Then you get miscellaneous other receivers, including Knox, the running backs, etc. get another 600-800. 4,000 yards. Not a lights out number, but if you're running a truly balanced attack, you just aren't putting the ball in the air as much in a pass=first philosophy.
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1 hour ago, Logic said:
Thanks, Shaw.
I DO think, as you say in your last paragraph, that he has a good chance to succeed. And maybe I should have more faith in the coaches to help ensure that he does.
I think what I fear is that -- given his young age and how raw he is, generally speaking -- that it might take him a while to succeed. That he might be a premiere receiver in this league by year three, but the Bills very much need him in year one.
Now, if the Bills had made moves to NOT need him so much in year one, then it would be a different story. But they didn't. If Coleman isn't being counted on to be a big factor until, say, week 6, then it currently means that Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter or Tyrell Shavers is being counted on during that time instead, and you'll have to forgive me for being not at all confident in that being a good thing.
I already mentioned strongly hoping that Beane keeps adding to the WR room, and you mentioned that you think he's likely not done adding there. I really hope this is the case. Right now, for the Bills to succeed optimally on offense, they're going to NEED Coleman to hit the ground running. If they put themselves in less of a position to NEED that by adding a capable veteran, I'll feel a lot better about things.Thanks for this.
I'd only say that, having seen and heard Coleman for a week now, and seeing what the Bills saw, I seriously doubt that they think they'll have to wait for year three. I'm sure they expect him to move into serious playing time in year one, just like Rousseau, Kincaid, Cook, and others. And I agree with that assessment. He has special physical talent, and he's tuned in to what the position takes. I expect he'll be soaking up information from last week through Labor Day, and the Bills will get him the field in live action pretty quickly. (They started Edmunds from day 1, and he had more to learn than Coleman.)
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23 minutes ago, Beast said:
The Bills were garbage for the first 10 games of last season. I don’t expect that this year.Well, after losing the opener to the Jets, they won three in a row by scores of 38-10, 37-3, 48-20, before a trip to London changed everything. I don't care who the opponents were, I wouldn't call those lopsided scores "garbage."
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6 minutes ago, Beast said:
I’m not asking you to say it. I said it. That’s my belief. We’ll see who’s right come September.Actually, what I care about is who's right come December. In September, Harmon might be right. After all, after the Jets game last year, the Bills came out absolutely smokin', and I don't expect that kind of start again. I think in December, you'll be right, because the young talent will be making an impact then.
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15 minutes ago, Logic said:
This is where I've come to on Coleman as well.
After my initial disappointment and teeth gnashing subsided and I allowed myself to become excited about what he seems to do WELL rather than what he DOESN'T do well, I've slowly accepted that he has the upside and skillset to potentially become a very good NFL receiver.....eventually.
The issue, as you point out, is that they need him NOW, and Beane said as much recently.
Where I think Coleman would have the best chance to succeed is if he had been added to a WR depth chart that didn't need him to produce right away. That could use him situationally and scheme him up and bring him along slowly.
I also think his best chance at success is to be a move player, a big slot, and to line up off the line of scrimmage more often than not.
Instead, he will seemingly have neither of those two luxuries. He joined a team that's gonna depend on him right away, and he joined a team that seems dead set on using him as a traditional X receiver. My worry about Coleman has thus shifted. I'm not as worried about him purely as a prospect -- clearly he's talented. Instead, I'm worried that his early workload and the way the Bills seem to want to use him will not be setting him up for success.
I really, REALLY hope they add a WR of significance after June 1st, be it via trade or free agency. Even someone who is only serviceable (like the current version of Odell Beckham) would take some pressure off of Coleman and would be able to provide some on-field mentorship.
As things stand now, I feel like there is a clear path to success for Keon Coleman, and that the Bills do not currently seem to be headed down that path.Frankly, I think you need to have a little faith in Beane and McDermott. I hear all of what you say, and I saw Bado's language that you quoted. I think your fears are unfounded.
McDermott doesn't put guys on the field for extended plays if they can't do what they're expected to do. They will move Coleman along at the pace that is appropriate for him.
I don't know Xs and Os, but I think you're overly concerned about him getting off the line of scrimmage. First, in his first snaps in the regular season, the coaches are going to put him in position to get easy releases, however they do it. They're going to put him in positions where he can succeed. In other words, I am confident they understand the "path to success" idea, and they will be mindful of that. In other words, I don't think Bado's correct (surprise, surprise) that the Bills will throw him out there because they need a #1 receiver. He'll play as he's ready to play.
I'm not ready to assume that Coleman will not have a major role early in the season. He may grow into that role faster than we think. But on the assumption that he simply isn't ready to carry a big load, then I can't tell you who the starting group will be. I think Beane's not done working on the receiver room, but if he is, it's because they're confident they can get it done in the front half of the season while they're waiting for Coleman to get up to speed.
Personally, I think we'll be seeing a lot of Coleman by game six, if not earlier. I think they'll find enough ways for him to succeed that he'll start seeing the field regularly, and once that happens, he'll start making plays that get the attention of the defenses.
I was just looking at his college stats. Maybe he benefitted from step down in competition at Florida State, but 11 receiving touchdowns in 50 catches is eye-opening, as is #3 nationally in punt returns. In his early snaps, I think the Bills are going to be looking for opportunities where he can get open with some room to run after the catch.
I'm not worried. Sure, he could flop, but I don't think so.
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1 hour ago, Sweats said:
I love this pick.....the dude is a bruiser, has a motor that doesn't quit and great vision.
He kind of reminds me of a cross between a Thurman Thomas and a Ladainian Tomlinson.
I know everyone is talking about the Coleman pick, but this is the guy i'm wanting to see the most in action.
Cook will have to be pretty good if he's going to keep Thomas and Tomlinson on the bench.
Sometimes I think I've just gone completely homer on this stuff, but the fact is that I'm not only interested in seeing Davis on the field, I'm interested in seeing all of the top five picks on the field. By the end of the season we could see Coleman, Bishop and Van Pran-Granger starting, and Carter and Davis in significant roles.
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5 hours ago, Beast said:
Yeah, I mean how could they not be better. They’ll only have Milano and Bernard back on the field, a healthy secondary, and their two top receivers have contribute a whopping 3 catches for 21 yards and the other will have to be healthy enough to suit up.Such a tall task.
You know, what you say is such good example of the fact that there different ways to look at a team. It's absolutely correct - how could the team be in a worse position now than they were then. They are much better off, physically. Of course, the real question is the roster as good today as it was a year ago at this time? That takes Bernard and Milano out of the comparison, and the secondary, too.
Depends when you look. Nevertheless, I think your take is correct. That team last year won 5 out of six down the stretch - or whatever - to make the playoffs and win the division, and they did with the team you describe. If those guys, in that shape, could be that good, these guys have a chance to be much better.
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31 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Now we're starting to find out why this guy was drafted. This guy has some outstanding physical attributes that we've all seen on film, and it's becoming clear that he has a real head on his shoulders. We're seeing multiple interviews that show his maturity, his dedication, his competitiveness, and now this. It's a one-minute seminar in the details of pass receiving. He's a serious dude.
I'm realizing that Keon is more than I first imagined.
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Just now, Bferra13 said:
Why would he though? If he doesn't want to be so involved,then just hire a President to run the team and collect the money. Literally a license to print money and now he has a pretty much free stadium. After he gets the PSL fees and what nots.
Why? The man's life has changed totally in two years. In such situations, some people reevaluate what's important to them. Happens often. I wasn't making a prediction, but under these circumstances, anything is possible.
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It just makes me sad, for all of them. Kim, Terry, the children.
Terry's going to do what he has to do, whatever that may be. He may stay the course, he actually be thinking about getting out.
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11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I think it's possible that Beane had a WR he liked higher up in the 4th and was trying to move up into the first 10 picks to grab one of the cluster of WR who went in the first half of the 4th, but it takes two and sounds like no one was buying what he was selling. I think I caught something about trying to move up but no one was interested (of course, there were a cluster of other RBs drafted in the 4th and some other positions, so who knows what he wanted).
I don't recall anything from Beane about moving up in the fourth. He said he wanted to move up in the second to get Bishop, but he couldn't find a dance partner. Fortunately, Bishop fell to him.
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45 minutes ago, NoName said:
Is he really competing against McGovern? Or is he competing against Edwards?
All indications are that McGovern is the center and Edwards is the left guard going into camp, and in both cases it's there job to lose.
Going into camp, I'd guess that The Bills like McGovern over Edwards, and like that tandem at Center and Guard, better than any tandem with Van Pran-Granger. It's really that tandem that matters. McGovern is probably better at guard than Edwards, so the battle in camp probably is McGovern and Edwards vs. Van Pran-Granger and McGovern.
And Jake, Saturday wasn't half bad. For sheer toughness (arm length aside) Torrence, Van Pran-Granger and McGovern suits me just fine.
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5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
Hahahah the rack! I have seen it around some of the seedier parts of one Bills drive 🤣
What also hurt his draft stock is that he is basically a center only... The bills and most of the NFL value position flexibility
If you're a large guard who can play right tackle it's a boost... If you're an athletic big guard who could play center... It's boost
If you can play left and right tackle it's a boost
He is strictly a center... In the modern NFL that probably did push him down another round.. what I do like about him...
Is that he is a very aggressive blocker... You can't teach aggression... It's a trait you have or don't
I mentioned something the other day that I liked about this draft, which is that they took guys with significant upside throughout the draft. Coleman, Bishop, Carter, Davis, Van Pran-Granger, Ulofoshio, Solomon, Grable, Hardy, and Clayton. Each one is a guy who, if he pans out, will end up being a bargain, and each is a guy who actually could pan out. .
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1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:
His short arms and inconsistent ability to play with good technique are definitely his biggest flaws
If the bills online coach can basically mold his technique over the next year... And get him into the weight room... I can see taking the next step at the NFL level
But he needs to work on his technique and gain some Mass
Fifth round picks usually are projects of some sort. This is no exception.
Have the Bills invested in an arm-stretching machine yet?
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16 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:
As I've said multiple times...
There is literally next to no chance.. a short-armed , smaller center who struggles with technique .. could beat out a NFL starter... With center experience in college... And is now one of the strongest biggest centers in the league
It will be next to impossible to beat him out in 1 year... Maybe next season or the year after
You're not unseating an the NFL veteran who is big for his position year 1... Who is starting quality
I have to agree. Guy's started at center in a big-time college program, so it's practically a given that he has the mental skills to play the position now. Given that, it's telling that he fell to the fifth round. It must be clear to the scouts and GMs that his physical limitations raise real questions about whether he ever can succeed in the NFL, let alone start as a rookie.
If he wins the starting job as a rookie, he will be the steal of the draft.
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I listen to him and I just want this guy on my team.
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13 hours ago, Beck Water said:
And yeah, we don't know how much was what Brady would like to do, and how much is "OK, these are the chess pieces still on my board, these are their capabilities, what can I do to win now?"
I think we can look back now and say what we saw in the second half were actually the beginnings of what Brady would like to do. I think that's what Beane's work shows us. If Brady (and McDermott) didn't want the shift we saw when Brady took over, if they had wanted something different, Beane wouldn't have take Samuel, Coleman, and Davis.
I think Davis sends a strong signal that the Bills intend to be a serious running team. Davis will take touches from Johnson - I think he will take over the #2 RB role, and I think he will emerge as a different but nearly equally valuable running back as Cook. And I think having a solid #2 was important because they want to run.
And Beane clearly was not looking for the killer big downfield threat at receiver. It's exactly the discussion you and I had before the draft. Beane's given Brady two more guys in the Shakir-Kincaid mold - good athletes who can do everything, two more guys who fit in the style that we think we were seeing in the second half last season.
Now, maybe it's all just Beane, McDermott, and Brady being practical - they didn't have a stud receiver in February and couldn't expect to find one, so rather than dream about a receiver room that wasn't possible, give where they were, they are building the best thing they can with what they have. Regardless of how they got there, however, I think the guys the Bills have added tell us something about how they intend to play. Whether it works remains to be seen.
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14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
You hit the nail on the head there Shaw. Very nice, well thought out, very well reasoned post BTW!!
Regarding the above however, the primary issue with this team is that we're two different teams, one in the regular season and another in the postseason.
For example, our Ds have consistently finished 1st, 2nd, and 4th in the league during the regular season, but over the past four years it plays more like the 20th (or worse) defense in the playoffs. Many attribute that to precisely what you said, particularly when it comes to coaching errors, miscues, whatever anyone wishes to call them, that hand games to our opponents in one form or another, including lax defensive scheming.
You mention the talent in September, but the discussion needs to revolve around the talent in January and February.
Here's the issue with our drafting, there's no visible plan in sight, much as game-planning, it seems to be a lot of shoot-from-the-hip stuff.
To start, Drafts are not annual events taken independently, at least not for the best, best coached, and best managed teams. There should be a year-over-year plan in place to build and create a Super Bowl Championship caliber team. Is there any hint of any such plan in place here? Many would argue that there is not. If there is, it's hardly identifiable other than creating the best D.
In fact, last season it was all about getting a WR that could separate. Diggs was ejected at tremendous cost because they claim he couldn't do that anymore. Watching the last game of the season vs. Miami seems to contradict that, where Allen badly overthrew him for a missed TD opportinity, and threw short to Knox for another missed TD opp, both plays he had beaten Ramsey and Apple, but that's irrelevant. This year we went with a WR that doesn't do that. There's zero visible plan for the offense in a year-over-year manner.
Our focus, clearly, has been on having the top-ranked D, which would be fine and dandy if it played that way in the playoffs, but it doesn't, it plays like one of the worst Ds in the playoffs generally speaking and with a pair of exceptions over the past four or five postseasons. McD seems to model things after the '85 Bears D which ranked #1 also, but in the playoffs it allowed 10 points in three games. We've averaged nearly three times that many in the playoffs.
Here's the thing, you mention those players, but which of them step up during the playoffs? Coleman is all but mystery meat right now. Torrence played very well as a rookie, but he's the only OL-man that Beane's hit on for us in 6 drafts.
Oliver's shows up for three playoff games and two of 'em our D wasn't particularly impressive against backup QBs. 10 plahyoff games, 2 sacks, 5 TFLs, 8 QB Hits, with 2, 3, and 5 in two games, one against Skylar Thompson, the other in that horrific defensive performance allowing 36 regulation points to KC. 0 sacks, 2 TFLs, and 3 QB Hits in the other 8 playoff games.
Same for Milano. 8 playoff games, 3 sacks, 5 TFLs, 7 QB Hits, with 3, 4, and 4 of those in two games, one against Skylar Thompson, the others in that miserable loss to Cincy. 0 sacks, 1 TFL, and 3 QB Hits in the other 6 games.
Cook, LOL, he hasn't had a great playoff game yet and Allen has to carry the running game in the playoffs. Despite Cook's 5.0 career rushing avg. hee's averaged 3.6 in the playoffs. 1 playoff TD in 4 playoff games. 53 carries for 192 rushing yards, 8 catches for 26 receiving yards, 1 total TD (rushing), and averages of 48 rushing yards and 6 receiving yards with TDs much less big-plays being rare.
Doesn't that fall on the coaching given your post?
Great! Eight (8) seasons in it's well past time to get it done. At what point does one cut bait. (rhetorical)
GO BILLS!!!
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This is really good stuff. I don't agree with it all, but even where we disagree, it's getting to the heart of the matter.
First, overall, I think it has to come down to coaching. Player personnel to some extent, but coaching primarily. In some ways, that's the point of my essay - Beane's job is to present the HC with a better mix of players than the HS coach can expect to get out of the random selection of kids in his school. We can argue about this player or that player, this trade or that signing, but in the end, Beane's delivering a pretty good collection of players, and the coach's job is to figure out how to win. We've pretty much all felt over the past few years that the roster was good enough to win it all, and they didn't. Roster could have been better, but it was good enough.
After listening to Beane for several years, I don't think it's possible to "plan" personnel the way you say. There's too much that the GM can't control. Beane's probably been thinking since October that he needed a new #1 receiver, but he wasn't thinking that a year ago. He might have had a crystal ball, sure, but he really didn't have any way to know for sure that Diggs would go sideways in 2023 and then kind of separate himself from the team. If he had some sort of plan for the receiver room before then, it went out the window. So, starting in October, he's thinking about what he's going to do about a receiver. But by then, his cap situation was determined, his draft situation was more or less determined. He wasn't going to be able to get a stud rookie. There wasn't a stud veteran who was available. What does he do? He talks to the coaches about what sort of receiving help they could use, given where Shakir and Kincaid are in their development, what kind of offense they want to run, etc. Beane comes up with some ideas, and then he does the best he can. It's hard to stick to a plan in that kind of situation.
So, he comes up with what he can, in this case Coleman, and he already got Samuel. Pretty good choices, guys with some interesting skills, interesting personality, and in many respects they're good building blocks to work with. They're both different from Shakir and Kincaid, and they probably make sense in terms of what Brady and McDermott said they'd like to do with the passing game.
I think that demonstrates that Beane might have an overall philosophy that he's following, but it's not really a plan.
Your primary point however, seems to be the truly critical point: the coaches seem to be quite good at taking what Beane gives them year to year and building a team that is successful in the regular season, but those teams never have been very successful at playoff football.
My view for the past few years has been that McDermott's philosophy, and therefore Beane's player selection, works well in the regular season and not so well in the playoffs. McDermott's philosophy is that his his team will be good at everything, able to play any kind of game, adapt from week to week. Pass one week, run the next. Blitz one week, defend the next. The philosophy demands that the Bills have jack-knife players: o-linemen who can pass block one week, run block the next. It means you have a guy like Spencer Brown at right tackle. In the receiver room, it means you want to have five or six guys, all of whom can do a lot of things pretty well - run routes, catch contested balls, run after catch, block, etc. And McDermott is good at running that kind of team, as we've seen. It makes a team resilient, to use the popular word.
But the playoffs are different. In the playoffs, there may be one or two teams that are multi- like your team is, and then it's just mano-a-mano. But there are also are teams that are very good at some things and just okay at other things. The Bills haven't been good enough to stop what the other team does really well and haven't been outstanding enough to take advantage of what the other team does not so well. It's like the Bills are stuck in some sort of high-end mediocrity across all aspects of their game. It's been that way on offense some times, but it's particularly been that way on defense.
What's to be done about it? Although I've been saying for years it's primarily about coaching (and I believe it is), on the personnel side I think (as many other do) that pursuit of these jack-knife players means that the Bills roster doesn't have true game changers (other than Allen). There's no Chris Jones. We hoped Diggs would be one, but he never quite got there. The safeties weren't outstanding, but they were outstanding within the system. It's hard to be that guy from Milano's position. They hoped Miller would be that guy, and the Bills have had bad luck with him. Maybe he comes back. Rousseau and Oliver are good examples - both probably top 10 at their positions, and excellent at what they do, but they're top 10, not top 3.
Maybe Beane and McDermott don't think they need a standout playmaker, but I do. On the personnel side, that's what I think.
The coaching side is, in my mind, more of a problem. I think it's really hard to get the jack-of-all-trades philosophy to win in the playoffs. In particular in recent years, it's been necessary not just to be really good, but to raise your game to the level of offensive and defensive excellence that Chiefs have had. What Reid has done in KC puts him, I think, way up on the list of all-time great coaches. His teams always seem to have an answer. It's scheme and creativity on the coaching side, and it's outstanding playmaking on the personnel side.
But it's mostly coaching. I think, and it appears that several posters here agree, that regardless of what one might think about the players Beane has assembled, they are good enough to win the Super Bowl. The potential is there to have a top-three offense. The defense may be a little weak. I think a lot depends on Bishop and Edwards, and on Miller. I'm assuming Milano and Bernard will be back, and I actually expect that we'll see some great stuff from Dorian Williams.
I'm more optimistic than most, because I have more confidence in McDermott than most people. McDermott is not about doing the same thing over and over and expecting to get better results. His system is to examine, constantly, what works and what doesn't and to make changes. I like to think that he knows what I've just said, and he's working at changing those things that haven't worked. He is, for example, challenging Brady to build an offense that is feared around the league, and they have a vision of what that will look like. He has a vision for what his defense will look like. (On defense, I think he now has what he had in Carolina - a linebacker corps that can drive a great defense.)
But my optimism doesn't win football games. McDermott 's approach may make sense, but sooner or later has to win in the playoffs. He could use another player or two, but fundamentally it's up to him to raise his game.
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2 hours ago, folz said:
Great original post Shaw. I took up your challenge from your above post...it's not the most "in-depth" dive, and doesn't answer all of your questions, but it at least gives a good overview to try and draw some conclusions.
Here are the snap counts, targets, and yards for the top pass catchers in 2023, divided into the first half of the season and the second half of the year:
Player 1st 8 games (snaps/targets/yards) Last 9 games (snaps/targets/yards)
Diggs 85%/90/748 78%/70/435
Davis 86%/47/434 81%/34/312
Kincaid 55%/34/258 64%/57/415
Shakir 31%/15/167 70%/30/444
Knox 68%/28/102 (7 games only/INJ) 49%/8/84 (5 games only (INJ)
Sherfield 32%/8/44 36%/14/32
Harty 20%/16/113 7%/5/37
Cook X/22/192 X/32/253
Overall, looking at total passing targets, the Bills averaged 33 passing targets/game over the first half of the season, and 28 passing targets per game over the 2nd half of the season. So, there is a bit of a drop. Adding up all of the QB/RB rushing attempts, the Bills averaged 26 rush plays/game over the first half of the year, and 32 rush plays over the second half. So, the Bills had a 33/26 pass/rush split, or a 56%/44% pass/rush balance for the first half of the season, and a 28/32 pass/rush split, or a 47%/53% pass/rush balance over the back half. Obviously, end-of-the-year weather has something to do with rushing more in the second half, but it does seem offensive philosophy may have been involved as well. It was a closer balance in the 2nd half of the season, but leaned more to the run game than the pass. And interesting to note, though Cook's attempts did increase from 13 to 15 rushes per game in the 2nd half, the much larger increase in rushing was from Josh, who went from 4.75 rushes/game in the first half to 8.33 rushes /game in the 2nd half. Again, how much of that was philosophy and how much was end-of-the-year desperation, gotta get it done one way or the other, who knows?
As to the individual receiving players,
Shakir was the big change, going from a 31% snap count in the first half of the season to a 70% snap count in the 2nd half and doubling his targets. Kincaid saw a decent increase in snap count, but a significant jump in targets. Diggs and Davis didn't have much of a change in snap count throughout the year, so the extra snaps for Shakir and Kincaid were mostly poached from Knox and Harty. But, Shakir and Kincaid were apparently stealing targets from Diggs and Davis. D&D averaged 17 combined targets in the first half of the season, and 12 combined targets in the 2nd half. Whereas, Kincaid and Shakir averaged 6 combined targets at the start of the year, and 10 combined targets in the 2nd half of the year.
Looking up the stats for all of this, the one that really jumped out at me though was catch rate for the 2023 season:
Diggs 66%
Davis 56%
Kincaid 79%
Shakir 86%
Knox 62%
Sherfield 48%
Harty 74%
We already knew that Davis and Knox weren't the most sure-handed receivers, but that was a big drop-off for Diggs last year. In his defense, he has a lot more targets, which means more opportunities for misses too---but I don't think that 66% seems great for your #1 receiver*, especially when his playoff production hasn't been stellar, and he is unhappy. Coleman is supposed to have very good hands. I think they are making a concerted effort for more reliability in that department
*For comparison t other top receivers: Lamb, Collins, Allen, D. Smith, St. Brown, Moore, Pittman are all in the 71-72% catch rate range; Hill, Chase, Robinson, Godwin have a 69% catch rate; Curtis Samuel, Jefferson, and Waddle are all around 68%.
And granted it was only on 45 targets (about 28% the number of say Diggs' targets), but Khalil's 86% catch rate was best in the league last year; and Kincaid's 79% was the 5th best catch rate for a TE last season (and two of the TEs ahead of him only had like 40 targets, compared to Dalton's 91).
Wow! That's really great. Thanks.
It's a lot to chew on. I was interested that you ended with catch rate. Last season, for the first time since he'd been in Buffalo, Diggs seemed unreliable. Before then, if the ball arrived almost any where he could get his arms to, he was catching it. He wasn't like that last season.
I heard some media guy, maybe coach, talking one time about how on offense, the best way to be successful was to have (1) zero negative plays, and (2) have very few plays where you get zero. That is, make every play a positive play. For Josh, that means take the easy completion, even if it's shorter. For the receivers, it's catch every ball. Samuel and Coleman should be a big upgrade over Diggs and Davis in that department.
Also interesting that they moved toward a more balanced attack. I would expect that balance is important to McDermott, and maybe even that he told Brady to be less pass-happy.
I'm getting interested in this offense.
1 hour ago, SoTier said:Starting QB Jack Kemp was injured during training camp IIRC. Shaw was coming back from a knee-injury suffered the previous year, and the rest of the OL was trash. The Bills ended up going through 4 other QBs in 14 games: Dan Darragh (rookie), Ed Rutkowski (eventually became Erie County Executive), Kay Stephenson, and Tom Flores. They finished 1-12-1 and used their #1 pick on OJ Simpson.
And, in the second-last or last game of the season, at Oakland, Rutkowski was playing. He wasn't really a QB; he was the emergency QB and there was no one else. Late in the game, Inside the 10, late in the game, a touchdown wins, Rutkowski fumbled and the Bills lost, thereby giving the Bills the #1 pick. Rutkowski scores, and OJ would have been an Eagle, I think.
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9 minutes ago, Rockinon said:
I think the Bills are going to lead the league in rushing this year. Add in the young depth at WR and TE and the Bills are going to have a nice balanced attack. Kincaid, Shakir and Cook all put up some numbers last year and it was clear, the second half of the season, they all gained Josh's trust. There is a perception by some that we should focus more on the passing game because of Josh's undeniable passing ability, but defenses are built to defend the pass. There were times when our passing attack seemed to regress as a result. I'm not saying that Josh isn't going to sling the rock, but I do believe there will be some emphasis on the rushing attack. Not just to have a balanced attack but to build a team that can't be stopped, no matter what a defense tries to do. The RBs we picked up in the draft are no slouches either.
Another thing we are going to see is a lot of is pre-snap motion. When Brady took over we were surprised to see it used significantly more often. And Shaw66 is correct about a lot of crossers and occasional deep shots. One of the misconceptions about our offense is that we don't have any speed. We do. They aren't big X receivers but they are very fast. Those deep routes aren't going away. They just aren't going to be Davis or Diggs. We may see some different looks in the way routes are run and in the way plays are schemed up, but Josh is still going to put up some numbers. One thing is clear. The ball is going to be spread around and at the end of the year, we are going to see it running like a well oiled machine. It might take a few games to really get rolling with all of the youth, or Kincaid, Shakir and Cook step into larger roles and we pick right up where we left off from last year.
Interesting take. Makes sense. I like the look of Ray Davis. We saw the running game beginning to emerge last season, and I can see it progressing.
The point is that the offense is going to be what McDermott wants - an offense that attacks all of the real estate that possibly can be attacked - from sideline to sideline, from five yards behind the line of scrimmage to sixty yards downfield. I think we're going to see a varied attack, dramatically varied. Curtis Samuel IS going to run running plays out of the backfield. Cook Is going to split wide. Before Coleman is fully up to speed, they are going to find plays to get the ball to him, and let him do his run after the catch thing. The objective is that it will look like the 49ers or the Chiefs - they always seem to be attacking your weakness, wherever it is. Put another way - your defense is deployed in a way that stops your attack in certain areas, and those offenses understand how to attack the open areas.
Davis wasn't versatile enough to fit into such an offense. And Diggs wasn't emotionally able, wasn't a team guy enough to reshape his game to be versatile. Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Cook all have shown they play that versatility game, and I think that's who Coleman is, too. Brady's playing mad scientist all spring, and we can only wait to see what he cooks up.
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28 minutes ago, TH3 said:
Haha ….You should have said “Yes …..I remember!”
Not sure Billy Shaw still alive….but he did rent our house for that season….I think they were awful that year…
Billy's still alive, so far as I know. I hope he doesn't mind that I use his name and number. I chose the name to honor and remember one of the all-time great Bills.
And yes, 1968 was an awful year. So awful that the Bills got the #1 overall pick.
Bills sign Chase Claypool, Smoot, Jones
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Very much my reaction, too. Hasn't fit in on three NFL teams. He's going to have to be a different guy if he wants a spot on the Bills' 53.
I'd think he's on a short leash.