Shaw66
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Posts posted by Shaw66
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5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Fair, and Beane literally said that in his last interview before the draft...alluding to having a higher priority on secondary help than DL for those reasons heading into the draft essentially. But DT was def still a need, we need to get off the field on 3rd downs...near last in the league was a massive issue. Getting more guys on the DL to just get us off the field one or two more times a game puts us literally in the SB this year and past KC in our last 3 losses.
So if TJ can just impact 3rd downs and help our front guys affect the play and get us off the field more, thats a pretty important aspect we have literally been devoid of.
I get what you are saying...but its not 80% of the snaps we are struggling the most - its those 3rd down plays where we give up 3rd and long because our corners failed and our front guys got no pressure. First 2 picks literally were to change those very things, which is what helped Philly dominate KC a game after we got embarrassed nearly every 3rd down by KC.
Will it work? We will see, but I get the intent here.
I think that if we could ask Beane, he would say that the Bills' objective is to have eight or ten defensive linemen, ALL of whom would start on most other teams. I think they really think they have eight or ten starters who share the job. That's what their objective is. They want to come at the offensive line with waves of talent.
I can't explain it other than that.
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12 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:
I fully support beane but not sure about drafting DT. When they took Oliver there are many other DTs who have been better who were taken after him. We will see about sanders and Carter in time.
I can't compare players, but I do know that one coach who played the Bills last year said that they set up their offensive scheme by first planning how they can contain Oliver. That's not a bad thing.
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42 minutes ago, notpolian said:
This guy could be good, but this is a reflection of McDermotts defensive philosophy. Smaller mobile DTs. Teams can run you over.
It's becoming more clear as each season goes by that McDermott wants quickness and versatility, and he believes that he can get those smaller guys to rise to the challenge on running downs. I think it's McDermott's wrestling mentality. I think his belief is that it's tougher to find big guys with the quickness and versatility he wants, than it is to find smaller quick guys who are tough enough to win against big power lines.
I have trouble seeing how his view actually is a better approach to defensive line plane, but McDermott has reasons that I'm sure at least make sense.
It's almost as though the plan is to fill the tackle room with 3Ts and have them compete. The two winners make the team as 3Ts, the next two guys get the 1T spots and agree to play the position as well as they can. I don't know.
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1 hour ago, 3rdand12 said:
I hate to admit , this was probably a very wise pick all considered.
Not my choice , but glad they stayed and he made it to them. He will have some pretty good mentors btw. Now I like the White pick up even better. Even Jackson knows the Game well , as well as Bills football
I approve !
This is a really good insight. I mean, think of it: They're bringing in this kid with all the talent in the world, a kid who is energetic and committed and competitive, and they surrounding him with four certifiable practitioners of the McDermott pass defense. He will be in OTAs and camp and preseason with Benford, White, Jackson, and Taron Johnson. They all will be showing him, teaching him. Hairston has the opportunity in the next three months to win the starting job outright, and all four of those guys are going to be helping him do it.
Hairston couldn't have been put in a better situation to succeed, and the Bills may be the beneficiary really quickly.
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33 minutes ago, Logic said:
As a fellow "we need a difference maker" guy, and one who also grants the difficulty of finding one at pick 30, I just wanna say...
Watching Hairston a bunch since last night, there are some game-changing type plays in his highlights. His eyes, instincts, trust in himself, and aggressiveness, combined with 4.28 speed, lead to him driving on the ball at times, picking it off and taking it to the house. When a 4.28 guy that's as aggressive as he is drives on it and picks it off, you're likely not catching him on his way to a house call.
So while most of the time the best way a corner can be a "difference maker" is to lock down his side of the field, there are occasionally guys -- Trevon Diggs, Deion Sanders, guys like that -- whose ability to intercept the ball and bring it back the other way can make a very direct and noticeable difference. And I'm definitely not saying Hairston is Deion Sanders. I'm just saying that he has some impressive plays on tape against top SEC competition, and I don't think it's crazy to think that there may be some pick-sixes in his future that swing important football games in the Bills' direction. The Bills having just one interception in the AFFCG of the variety that I saw Hairston make at times at Kentucky may have sent the Bills to the Super Bowl.
Maybe it's the optimist in me, but I have hope that Hairston can be a legitimate playmaker. Here's hoping.Thanks for this. You've looked at a lot more tape than I have, obviously. Before I say more, let me congratulate you on your final draft analysis, for having come down to the conclusion that the Bills would be taking a corner at 30 and knowing who was on the short list. Nice job.
I agree with your analysis. There's always the risk that a guy taken late in the first round just won't pan out, and we've seen that recently enough. I think that he that he probably will make it, and that he has some unusual upside. I think you are exactly right about this. If he's just number two to benford's number one, the pick will have been worth it. If he is a guy who makes people talk about Deion Sanders, the pick will be one of the best in Bills history. If he can be the kind of mental player that McDermott wants, McDermott will create multiple opportunities for Hairston to use his unique skill set. If that happens, a half dozen teams or more will wonder why they didn't take him earlier in the first round.
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I have no idea what the Bills will do in in the second round. I would be happy if they could find a way to package some of their other picks to move up higher in the second round. But even if they stay where they are, the opportunity to add two second round talents to this team is a great thing. Hairston plus plus the two guys they can get tonight could be three starters by the end of this season, and that would mean the Bills have gotten a lot better in this draft.
My choices would be a defender at almost any position and a running back. If the Bills found a quality running back in the second round, we could see Cook going in a a trade this summer which would allow Beane to add another pick in next years a draft.
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3 minutes ago, Simon said:
It still makes a huge difference but without quick, hard coverage to complement it the QB ends up with an easy out before the pressure has time to get home.
DL is still the second most important unit imo, but offensive systems are so efficient now that DLs can't do it on thier own anymore and it's just not as cut and dried as it used to be.
I think the formula still works, however. If you have a front four that can get to the quarterback, if they can win and generate pressure, then the defense can begin to pull the back seven up tighter on the line of scrimmage and create more risk on the quick throws. Then the quarterback is under a lot of pressure, because The automatic short throw stops being quite so automatic. Once the QB pump fakes and waits for the double move, for example, somebody on the defensive line is beginning to apply pressure, and now the offense is in some trouble. I don't think there's any other way to play the game.
Plus, if Bosa is healthy and the old Bosa, once in awhile Rousseau is going to be dropping into coverage and the Bills will be rushing three, still threatening to get it the quarterback with Bosa and adding a big, tall, mobile defender in the short passing lanes.
Hairston can help with all of this because he looks to be able to play press coverage and cut off some of the quick passing opportunities.
3 minutes ago, Cash said:Now, speaking of Hairston specifically, I don't care what his real RAS would be, because he's very clearly a premier athlete when you see his combine workout or game highlights. Dude is both quick and fast, changes direction well, and looks super fluid. Some guys run track much better than they run football, and their 40 times are usually misleading. Hairston's highlights look like a guy with 4.28 speed.
You're right about this. You don't have to watch very much video of the guy to understand that he is an extraordinary athletic talent. Both his speed and his quickness are breathtaking, and he looks like he is good hands too. He's a big time athlete in a relatively small body. As Beane said, if he were 6'2 and 15 lb heavier, he would have gone way up at the top of the draft
I'm excited about him. He could be really special.
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38 minutes ago, Cash said:
I wound up talking myself into wanting a CB with our first pick - unless someone like Golden or one of the pass rushers fell, or maybe if Malaki Starks fell. #1 thing I wanted was a player who will make a positive impact. I think Hairston has a great chance to do that. I also don't mind that only Hunter and Barron went before him. The Bills can say whatever they want, but they clearly had McDuffie ranked over Elam back then, and if they'd beat the Chiefs to the punch that would've been a great pick.
For me, I keep coming back to the most killer stat from the end of last season - Mahomes averaging something like 2.5 seconds to get the ball out. Put simply, there is no pass rush that's going to consistently get to the QB that fast. That's not to say I'm against fortifying the d-line, because I am. There's all kinds of benefits to having a great d-line. But we could've brought in 2007 Giants d-line via a time machine, and it wouldn't have made a difference in that game.
Thanks for this. I've said before that I very much wanted the bills to get a difference maker somewhere. A guy that teams have to plan for. I've always thought that guy was an interior lineman, particularly a one-tech tackle.
Generally, I don't think cornerbacks can be maker makers, and I doubt Hairston will be one, particularly in McDermott's D.
However, I agree with what you said, because the lineman disappeared off the board so quickly that it simply wasn't possible to get up into the draft far enough to get a guy who projected as a difference maker. The next best choice was a really good defensive player at almost any position, and it seems like that's what they got. Of course, he has to show he can do it, but he projects as a guy who can be very valuable in McDermott's defense. I haven't read the entire thread, and I don't know what others have said, but I haven't seen anyone just making the comment about the fact that Houston's speed alone makes him a special threat on corner blitzes. Unblocked, he can get to the QB fast.
He looks like the kind of guy who McDermott can use as a weapon all over the field. He could be a better version of Tre White at White's best. I like the pick and I think we're going to be happy that Hairston is on the team.
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2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I will be irrationally upset to make the board normal again!
*Ahem*
I'm not in love with it. I don't think CB was the dire need people have painted it, and I would have much preferred someone in the trenches. That said, DL was pretty picked over and Golden & Starks were gone. With a major drop on CBs, Hairston is probably darn close to BPA and *does* fill *a* need, even if it's not as critical as I think some believe it to be.
That said, a three way battle of Hairston-Tre-Dane for the CB2-4 rankings seems to make is one of the deepest CB groups in the league
I never am a student of the draft, but my view of the Bills needs was the same as you. I wasn't desperate to get a high end corner, in part because McBeane have done so well putting solid corners on the field without spending a lot on them.
But I also agree with you that if Hairston can start, the Bills have a very nice corner room. Of course, a few years ago I was typing "If Elam can start," and we know how that went. It isn't easy to play the corner the way McDermott wants it played.
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Sorry to hear this. Sounds like a genuinely nice guy.
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4 minutes ago, Logic said:
This is where I've been at for a few seasons now.
I understand why people are risk averse. I understand that, to some people, blowing up half a draft to get ONE guy seems foolhardy.
But I look and see a team that has had "depth and balance" for years now, and when the playoffs hit, they invariably get beat by teams who have a star at least one position other than QB. The Chiefs with Kelce and then Chris Jones. The Bengals with Ja'Marr Chase. We don't have -- and haven't had -- that second guy.
I think last season proved something to me. It was supposed to be the "necessary reset, purge the veterans, take your cap medicine" year, and the Bills were supposed to regress. But they DIDN'T regress! They came as close to the Super Bowl as they ever have under Beane and Allen. That told me that as long as Josh Allen is quarterback and as long as they have the culture in place that they do, they'll always be contenders. To me, that means that they can take some swings on stars now. It's okay. Blowing up half a draft to land a blue chip talent won't destroy them this year or for years to come.
So yes. I'm all for trading up and trying to hit a home run. I'm fine throwing caution to the wind a little bit and trusting the program these guys have built and GOING FOR IT a bit more. Whether it's a star edge or corner or receiver or whatever. If you think he can finally be that SECOND GUY that we have lacked, go get him. It'll be fine. Enough risk aversion.
Exactly! What you say about last season is exactly how I see it: A reset year in which the general wisdom of McDermott's approach was demonstrated by the success he had with a bunch of players we all were worried about.
This year they can afford to give up pics, of which they have plenty, because they have a solid team whose effectiveness was demonstrated last season. Now they need to add a difference Maker. I don't think the difference Maker is on offense. What they need is a stud, lineman or linebacker and I hope they trade up to get one.
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3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
I'm not sure about what a shutdown corner is, really.
Does it mean only preventing completions at a high rate? Many INTs? Getting guys to throw elsewhere? Only in man coverage? Low passer ratings when thrown against? I honestly don't know anymore.
So I'm not sure if Benford is one, but I think it's not really a hot take to list him as a top five CB these days.
Here's one quick bit of support:
https://www.si.com/nfl/bills/news/buffalo-bills-christian-benford-pff-all-pro-team-first-quarter
"His early season excellence has been recognized by Pro Football Focus, with the outlet naming him to their first-quarter All-Pro team.
'Benford's 83.0 coverage grade ranks fourth at the position, but he has prevented separation on 75.68% of his opportunities in 2024— the highest rate in the NFL,' PFF writer Gordon McGuinness wrote. Benford has been outstanding this season, allowing a position-best 14.6 passer rating when targeted. His PFF defensive grade of 79.9 and coverage grade rank fourth among corners with a minimum of 100 snaps. He's also ranked No. 1 among all corners with a tackle grade of 85.4. (Interestingly, Elam has the highest overall grade of all corners, but he's only played on 23 snaps)."
This came early in the season, but we've seen generally agreement in several places as the season went on.
Apparently he got one first team all-pro vote last year and, "Although Benford lacks gaudy interception stats, he locked down the opposition last season allowing just 0.51 yards per coverage snap allowed. This was good for first among all cornerbacks."
But yeah, he appeared to give up his chances of top three recognition -- by the market -- by signing a year early and getting immediate security for himself and his family in exchange. I would value the market's opinion a lot, but it's not the only one I value.
Anyway, good talking to you, Shaw. Hope all's well.
Thanks for finding that. Good stuff in there.
As for what is a shutdown corner, I think that fans and the media put a lot of emphasis on the Sauce Gardner types who have extraordinary quickness and have shown an ability to stick closely to even the fastest receivers on their cuts and changes of direction. They are remarkable athletes, but they are most useful only in defenses that play a lot of man-to-man and that want to force offenses to play only in a portion of the field by taking away the number one receiver. Belichick's Patriots played that way. That's why Belichick wanted Stefon Gilmore
McDermott has been a leader in playing a more team-oriented defensive approach that requires the cornerbacks to be much more versatile. There have been very few cornerbacks good at both. Tre White is about as good as we've seen in terms of show those shutdown characteristics and playing in a team-oriented defense. Great shut down skills are somewhat wasted in a team-oriented defense, because the defense plays more zone and help schemes, and therefore the shutdown corners skills are wasted.
Bills fans can argue about the approach. Sometimes I think that McDermott's ideal defensive lineup would have 11 guys all weighing between 200 and 260 pounds with good speed and serious competitiveness. It's as though he would like to play with 11 fast small linebackers. The wisdom in how McDermott wants to play is that the more specialized your players get - like having a shutdown corner or a monster one tech tackle - the easier it is for the offense to scheme away from that guy's special skills and toward that guy's weaknesses. McDermott wants 11 players on the field who have no serious weaknesses, and in order to do that, for most players that means avoiding guys with special skills.
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5 hours ago, BananaB said:
🤷🏼♂️
I’m sick of the same results from doing the same thing year after year. They win but don’t achieve the ultimate goal.
I feel your pain.
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15 minutes ago, BananaB said:
Well let’s bring Von back to. Add in Poyer. They know the playbook, McD trusts them.
You seem to think that there's a category - good players who used to play for the Bills. And you seem to think that everyone who is in that category is, by definition, no longer useful to the Bills.
Thank goodness that Beane and McDermott actually have brains in their heads and can examine the case of each former Bill and see the differences between them.
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5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:
While I agree about the other three, I think Benford is absolutely a star. I mean, not a top three guy yet, but pretty close to it, particularly after only three years.
I'm not ready to say absolutely yet, but I don't disagree.
It's interesting to have this discussion with White having just signed. I think Benford could be another White, and by that I mean a star corner in this system but not a top three corner. I say that because at least the way the free agent market has defined the top three, it's always shut-down corners. I never thought White, good as he was, was a top-three shut-down corner, and I don't think Benford will be, either. What I've said for a quite a while is that the way McDermott wants to play the game, a shut-down corner doesn't matter to him as much as an all-round guy who is very good at man, zone, tackling, run support, and the team concept. So, while I love Benford and think he's just what the Bills want, I doubt the market ever will recognize him as top-three. (Actually, with his extension, the market may never have an opportunity to recognize him in his prime.)
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14 hours ago, HappyDays said:
Wow that certainly complicates the draft plans. Now if we draft a CB early they don't necessarily have a clear path to start. I no longer have any clue what to expect next week.
I don't think it complicates much of anything. I'm sure Beane and McDermott love Tre, but there is no sentimentality involved here. There's no question that they had very frank conversations with Tre about something that he already fully understands: nobody is going to give him anything. Tre knows that he is not a long-term solution at any position on this team and that a younger, better player may come along at any time and move ahead of him, including a guy drafted next week.
This is an upside, no downside signing, at least from a positional point of view. If somehow he's now fully recovered and he's back to something like his old self, it's a homerun. If he's healthy but has lost a step, then he's a better version of Dane Jackson - a guy who knows the defense inside and out, a guy who can step it at any time, always be in position, always contributing to the team. If he's less than either of those and injuries have taken too great a toll, he'll be gone. He'll understand, and he will thank the Bills for having given him the opportunity.
And back to the homerun. If he can be what Benford is (which in my mind is very good but not quite what the younger Tre White was), then the Bills are really solid and versatile at corner. That would be two good cover corners, two smart zone corners, two run-stopping tacklers. That would allow the coaches to get more creative with their linebackers and safeties, just the way McDermott likes to play the game.
1 hour ago, DJB said:Last one against the Lions was pretty bad, but most of the others he was in pretty good position and played the receiver pretty well. Clearly needed to clean some things up, but as we saw when he was with the Bills, he is almost always with his man and in position to make a play. That's what McDermott wants from his corners.
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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think the consensus is miles out. Beane isn't either. He drafts very few busts. That isn't the issue. Its stars that are lacking from our drafting and maybe that needs a bit less consensus thinking (not saying it does just asking the question)?
I agree. And I don't think it's a lot of stars, either. I'd like one real stud on the defense. I think the guys who got extended - Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, are all really good at doing their jobs, but there isn't a star among them. If things work out well, Bosa could be the guy, and if he is, that could be enough to put them over the top.
That's why I'm a fan of the Bills trading up this year. Package the first, a second, and some other picks to get up into the teens and go after a guy with the potential to be a real difference make. If the Bills got lucky and landed a guy like a Watt, a Bosa, a Parsons, or a Chris Jones, this defense would be real trouble for several seasons.
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4 minutes ago, GrimboG said:
There was good summary of this on X the other day. Bills have been one of the closest to "consensus" picks in recent years
https://x.com/sfdata9ers/status/1909760420036198662
So, the Bills generally are getting good value in the draft, compared to consensus. That begs the question: Is Beane doing a good job, or is the consensus wrong?
The real question is how well did teams draft when compared the to first three years of performance from the drafted players? A little tougher question to answer, but that is where the rubber meets the road.
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25 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:
This is the one position in Bills history that we really can’t identify one or two guys who were great. Lots of very good but go through other positions and you find one or two great players.
QB - Kelly, Allen
RB - Simpson , Thomas
FB - Gilcrest
WR - Reed, Lofton, Diggs
Center - Hull, Wood
O Tackle - Dawkins, R Brown, S Brown?
O Guard - Ritcher, Joe D, Shaw
D End/Edge - B Smith
DT - K Williams, Sestak
NT - Smerlas
LB - Biscuit, Fletcher, Talley
S - Poyer, Hyde
I’ve probably missed one or two guys, but you get the point. At CB, I don’t see anyone close to these levels of play. TE is the other position lacking a truly great player.
Thanks for this. (You left off Jason Peters, who probably was the best offensive tackle ever to play for the Bills. I know most of his great years were with the Eagles, but he was a stud by the time he left Buffalo. He was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory.)
I think you're point about corners and tight ends highlights a reality about those positions - they aren't game-changing positions, and you don't often find game-changing players at those positions.
If you think about corners, what doesn it mean to have a shut down corner? Well, all it really means is that the game turns into 10-on-10 instead of 11-on-11. Shut-down corners don't win games; they just keep one player on the other team from beating you. Shut-down corners don't cause offenses to reshape their offense; the offense just limits their attack to less than the entire field. The offensive equivalent of a shut-down corner is the stud receiver - the Chases, Hills, Jeffersons, etc. Those guys can attack the entire field, so they actually do reshape the defense. They are, I think, more valuable than shut-down corners.
I always thought it was interesting that for many years, Belichick built his defense around the shut-down corner. He had that other guy before he gave Gilmore a ton of cash. Between the two of them, the Pats had star corner talent for five or six years running. Belichick saw a real advantage in playing 10-on-10.
I think the shut-down corner is no longer that valuable. Everyone, not just the Bills, is playing more zone these days, because it's the only way to cover the ever-changing route combinations offensives are attacking with. Playing straight man-to-man all day is a formula for losing, because offenses now always can find weaknesses to attack. Today, if you want to succeed playing strictly man, you need three really good cover corners, two good safeties, AND one or two good linebackers. Nobody has that. Zone is (and always has been) the way to cover your weaknesses, whether they are schematic weaknesses or personnel weaknesses.
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43 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
Agreed, but he did a dang good job at center last year. Josh trusts him and having stability at Center is crucial imho.
Sure, but the assumption is that VPG will grow into a quality starter himself. It's that kind of building that Beane wants to do, the younger guy grows into the replacement before you need him. If the Bills extend McGovern without a plan to release him, then it means that they think VPG can't be what they hoped.
I think in Beane's perfect world, VPG forces McGovern out of Buffalo. If that doesn't happen, it means Beane is looking, again, for a center in the free agent market.
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3 minutes ago, T master said:
I'd think not, they have always had a back up at the center position on the team and given Kromer's experience one might think that they are getting him ready like McGovern to play to play multiple positions going forward and incase of injury he would be a great depth player to have around .
And McGovern is one of those players, just like Morse, who may be cut free a year or two before his career is done. So if he gets an extension this year, I'd guess that he doesn't play out the full contract with the Bills.
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1 hour ago, sven233 said:
And I actually agree with this in theory. My issue is that I don't see this as a very star heavy draft. I think there are a few of them, but I am not sure I see enough major impact players that will make it into the middle of the round. I actually think there is a good chance you get the same player in terms of quality at 30 as you would at say 18 or 19. Just not sure it is worth all you will have to give up to get there. In other drafts, sure.....but I just don't see this one as a heavy star-laden draft. But that's just me. If Beane sees a guy in the late teens that he truly believes is one of the top players in the draft then, by all means, go get him. As I sit here today, I just don't know who that guy is that will be worth using a 2nd rounder plus probably another pick to go up and get. Now, if you want to move up a few spots by giving up a 4th or 5th, fine..... But I am not eager to part with a 2nd for 10 spots or so in this draft.
I agree. It's gotta be a guy Beane has top 10 or 12 - a possible star - and he's falling in the teens.
And I agree - only if they think he's a difference. If he's the best in a bad draft, that isn't enough.
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1 hour ago, sven233 said:
There are good arguments to be made both ways in terms of moving up or moving back depending on the round you are talking about. Personally, unless there is a guy that you 100% have in your top 10 players in the draft sitting there at like 17 or so, I am not sure I am ready to make that kind of a move. This is fairly unique draft where, outside of a couple top end talents, there are guys all over the first 3 rounds you can see being good players in the league. The value, in my opinion anyways, starts in the mid 20s and guys picked there could easily be just as good as the picks earlier in the draft. If anything, while I love having 2 seconds, I would love to move up and get an earlier pick there. Maybe you can swing our 2 seconds to move up and grab a 3rd in the process. There are solid players that can absolutely help this team into the 3rd round and it would be wise to try and get in there if you can, especially if you can move up substantially in the second round in the process.
I don't expect to use all of our picks this year, that's for sure. But I want to be strategic about it so we still make enough picks, but really maximizing the value at the same time.
I get this, but I like the argument the other way. When you say the "value starts in the mid-20s," you're talking about it like it's a market, and it is, to some extent. But just looking at value ignores need. What this team needs, in my opinion, is a player who's a difference maker. It's true, there are difference makers to be had in the second round, but they're very difficult to find. It's pure luck. The difference makers, we all know, are typically found in the top 15. Not every top 15 is a difference maker, but the chances of getting one there are much, much better than in the second round.
The Bills have a good, solid roster. They always could use two or three starters out of the draft, but they have plenty of good starters. Much better to add one guy on the d line who turns out to demand double teams. He makes everyone around him better. A guy like that is hard to get in the second round.
If the Bills were building, like maybe the Pats, I agree, give me the picks. But the Bills are built, and they're looking for someone to put them over the top. For that kind of guy, the Bills have go looking for him.
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I would love a move into the teens, for whatever talent Beane sees there.
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2025 NFL Draft Thread : Rounds 2-3
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Yes, I expect them to burn some of those late rounders to make little moves to grab guys they like. A receiver makes sense.