Straight Hucklebuck
-
Posts
6,429 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Straight Hucklebuck
-
-
8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Your analysis astounds.
'Doubling down' by getting a WR1 for your developing QB. And calling Milano a 'hit' . That's...revealing.
You deny it?
Beane is doing the right things.
McDermott is conservative and maddening sometimes with his love for ex-Panthers and veterans, but he's steady.
I guess my point was the GM is adding talent all over this team.
They need Allen now.
2018 - He played exactly like his Scouting Reports said he would
2019 - He played on the positive side of those Scouting Reports
2020 - He should break out of the game manager mode and start the climb up the ranks
-
2 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
I am not arguing your stats and criticism thereof. However, you never seem to account for his all-purpose yards and TDs, because let me let you in on something...Yards = Yards. You never mention how in short yardage, it's almost a gimme; you never seem to credit the 4th QTR and game winning drives in a short career so far; you hardly criticize Oline play for the mindless penalties putting us into long field position, you never seem to credit when you are in third and long, we at least have a better chance at converting; you never seem to credit leadership, accountability. Lastly, as with many of you doubters, you don't know his story. He has been doubted his entire life, yet here he is. Maybe he will finally flounder at this level so you all can rejoice in your criticism. With who Allen had last year, where was he going to get his mythical 300 yards from? Beasley has a career average of 34 yards per game (he averaged 51 with Allen last year); John Brown has a career average of 49 yards per game (he averaged 70 with Allen last year). So if we are lucky, on a good day together they would average 150 yds. We need more production from other players such as TEs and RBs. So while yes his numbers aren't up to par per say, let's not act like he weapons are superior.
Nobody will rejoice when he flounders. That's a classic embellishment to try and get a rise, nobody said that. By the way Carson Wentz threw for 27 TDs and 7 Ints with practice squad WR's and two NFL Tight Ends.
In 2020, if the Bills offense averages 28 ppg and Allen throws for over 4,000 yards! Heck yeah, that's what we all want, all fans would love that. A dominant Bills offense for the first time since the 1990's? Yes.
I'm not saying get the hook, Allen is the guy, go get it. I'm just saying I don't want to hear he's raw, he's young, he played at Wyoming. We're past the jump from Year 1 to Year 2 and all of that. He has the weapons now, there is no Tom the Terrible in division anymore, the Jets have no offensive weapons, and the Dolphins are trying to cash in draft picks.
-
Just now, GoBills808 said:
Yeah we're just doomed
time to pack it in hoss
Not at all. Beane understands this.
Outside of some nostalgia for veterans past their prime, Beane was correct on Dareus, correct on Watkins, has improved the skill position players (from the disastrous 2018 which he admitted), the offensive line is better and deeper, he hit on Milano and Edmunds and so forth.
He has doubled down on getting Allen help by trading for Diggs in his prime with contract.
So its not doom and gloom, the reality is the team is ready to win and needs Allen to lead from the front. It shouldn't be all on the defense to not allow more than 16 ppg so that the Bills can win 17-16.
Allen did show improvement, but to the OP, 2020 is a huge year, not a throwaway year.
-
We see the Allen that handled the Cowboys on Thanksgiving more often? I feel much better.
We see Josh Allen against the Titans, where the Bills have to hang on for dear life more often? I'm looking for playmakers, elsewhere on the offense and at QB.
-
2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I think you, most posters here, and most fans generally are mired in this way of thinking. What's wrong with it is that it is not how Beane is thinking about it, it's not how McDermott is thinking about it, it's not how Belichick is thinking about it. Their goal is to build a program that wins a lot of football games, year after year. From week to week, their goal is to play good football in the upcoming game. Their goals don't change depending on whether they have a good QB or a bad one, or whether they have a good defense or bad one. So their goal is NOT to build a winning offense in a hurry, just because they happen to have a good defense this season. They EXPECT to have a good defense every season, so they aren't in a hurry. They EXPECT to have a good offense every season, so this season isn't going to make them make short-term decision.
Each decision is based on what's going to have the best long-term impact on the quality of the football the team plays. In terms of player personnel decisions, there is only one player at one position who can have a major long-term impact on the quality of the football - football. You get the right guy at quarterback, you can have a quality football team for ten or fifteen years. You can't say that about any other position. Get JJ Watt or Polamalu or Jason Peters or Adrian Peterson, none of them assure you the long-term impact that Brady and Favre and Brees do.
If the conclusion of the analysis the Bills do in their process is that Allen has the potential to be great, if the Bills see what they think is a path to making him great, they are NOT going to conclude they need a new guy. They aren't. Will they start thinking about investing a second or third round pick in a QB? Maybe, probably certainly if he isn't producing better in 2021 than he did in 2019. But they won't give up him, because they're in it for the long-term, and Allen still has a lot of football to play.
And don't demean yourself by referencing Edwards, Fitzpatrick and Taylor. They're just three of thousands of quarterbacks who didn't have all the tools necessary to play the game at a really high level, and you know it. Allen has all the tools; he just hasn't played at a high level. Just because Allen hasn't done it doesn't mean he won't do it. There is no football law to that point. Young didn't do it out of the box, Elway didn't do it out of the box. Each player is unique.
Put another way, your team can recover from all kinds of personnel mistakes, but there's only one kind of mistake that affects your team for a decade - letting a franchise QB get away. That has long-term consequences. McBeane have told us over and over that they're in this for the long-term, and they are not going to make a long-term mistake by getting rid of a QB who doesn't meet short-term goals, especially goals established by the fans.
I agree with all this. Beane and McDermott have built their culture, hand selected Allen for his tools, leadership, etc.
But ...
Aren't these the same Football Men/Coaches who tell the fans the following all the time:
1. The Jump from Year 1 to Year 2
2. Taking all the reps in OTAs
3. Not looking over your shoulder in Training Camp
4. Continuity with the OC, QB Coach and scheme
5. Gelling with the offensive line
6. Getting more weapons
7. Seeing the same team multiple times
8. Playing a full 16 games
9. Can't evaluate a draft until 3 years
10. Hitting an NFL weight room
11. Reviewing the tape and correcting mistakes
12. Supporting with a strong running game
13. Don't want to take away aggressiveness by over emphasizing turnovers
14. Respect the football
The Bills have provided all of these things, to go with a defense that gives the Bills offense chances.
As far as Trent, Fitzpatrick, Taylor, I mention them because the conversations among fans sound the same. More time in the system, need better weapons, needs a better line, needs Coaches who don't overemphasize turnovers.
The Bills have nothing behind Allen, and nothing in the pipeline. He has to work. But I remain unconvinced that 2020 can look like 2019 without loss of some faith in Allen by Bills fans and the FO.
The Bills just traded the 1st Round pick to help Allen more. If it doesn't happen in Year 3, then it doesn't mean it won't happen in Year 4, but I don't see anyway that the statistics on a sudden uptick would increase.
-
51 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
Like I said, whine all you want on this board...get it off your chest. I enjoy poking back at all you doubters.
But what ammo do you really have?
Allen finished 30th in passing yards per game, tied for 21st in TD passes, 25th in average, 24th in QBR, 19th in Rating, 32nd in completion percentage, and his offense scored 19 ppg, good for 23rd in the league.
What fans generally have is, he's young, he's raw, his weapons aren't good enough.
But keep in mind, the Bills had a defense that finished 2nd in points allowed at 16.2, and played what turned out to be a easy schedule.
So yes, there was improvement, and yes the Bills did make the Playoffs. But it's pretty clear that Allen must improve in 2020, because the defense is only going to play at this level for a finite amount of time. The Seahawks, who led the league in defensive points against for 4-5 years in a row are an outlier.
-
2
-
-
15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
That's possible, but not necessarily the case. McDermott and his coaches will evaluate Josh after 2020 just like after 2019. They will decide what it is that he needs to learn, and they will decide whether they think he can learn it. If they think he can learn it, they keep going. The process is not about his numbers. It's about what he knows, what he still needs to learn and whether he can learn it. It isn't about his passer rating in 2020 or about his 300 yard games.
But regardless of how much we like Josh as a hard worker, it needs to be noted that Bills fans were saying the same things about Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyrod Taylor. All three of them plateaued, didn't get better, and thus didn't get a 4th year (except Nix/Gailey keeping Trent around for the first two games of 2010).
-
1
-
-
Shaw66 - One of the things that needs to be stated is, if this isn't a make or break year in your mind for Allen, and it can be further down the road in 2021 or beyond, then the assumption being made is that the defense continues to be near the top of the league in points per game allowed.
Because if Allen stats plateau around 3,000 yards, 20 TDs and 60% completion, then the assumption I'm making is we aren't scoring many more points. So the game flow has to go the same way, tight 19-16 wins.
But that's another year on Hyde, Poyer, another year older for Hughes, Addison, and the Bills will need to extend Tre and keep Milano.
So that's why I can't justify a throwaway year for Allen. He needs to get better relative to the league, not just his rookie self. We're past measuring him against the raw prospect he was. The investment has been made, the defense is good right now.
-
3
-
-
4 hours ago, TwistofFate said:
Completion % above 60%
2 or more 300+ yard games
3800+ yards on the season
24+ Tds
Qb rating of 90 or higher.
Definitely should be reachable targets:
+ 1.2% completion
190 ypg to 240 ypg
+4 passing TD’s
+5 points in QB rating
I also would like to see some games over 300 yards passing. The Bills gave him 46 attempts in Houston.
Those numbers would place Allen at the upper end of a game manager QB, meaning the game script would require Bills defense to clamp down on the opponent and keep points at 18 and below.
A measurement that needs improvement is offensive ppg. Last year the Bills scored 19 ppg. The defense allowed 16 ppg. And in the biggest games, Patriots x2, Ravens, Texans, the Bills offense came up one TD short with drives at the end of the game to win. Four more passing TDs from Allen would be +2 ppg and that would give the defense a little more wiggle room to allow 18 ppg (assuming similar rushing TDs per for the whole team).
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
Very interesting. You may be right. I think you will have four or five, but they just haven't emerged yet. Allen, Darnold, Dak, Wentz, and I know people think I'm nuts but I put Tannehill there too, all are guys who might emerge. Burroughs. Mayfield. Jackson.
Some of them will turn out to be dominant.
But that's just what I think. I see how you could be right. Thanks.
Right now it’s Mahomes in the AFC and Russell Wilson in the NFC.
There have been so many QBs to come into the league recently and they all are starting: Murray, Allen, Jackson, Mayfield, Darnold, Jones, Haskins, Lock, and now Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love.
-
1 hour ago, Augie said:
There is a separate thread on how to make your own protective mask, if you need it.
I like the idea of fresh legs. I like the idea of a threat with breakaway speed. I also like the idea of a bruiser to pair with Singletary to mix things up and beat down a tired defense to close a game or get the tough 3rd and 2. I also like the idea of a savvy vet who can pick up a blitz and be counted on not to fumble.
Mostly, I like the idea of a competent FO who can figure all of this out for us and (hopefully) make all the right calls!
IMO I don’t need a bruiser as a change of pace to Singletary. In fact, if you gave me another mid-round back that could make people miss and be a threat out of the backfield, that’s better than a one dimensional straight forward, plow ahead runner with no shake.
Give me another 5’7” 200 pounder like Singletary. As long as they’re a playmaker.
-
1 hour ago, FireChans said:
I know, I know. RB is a devalued position. But if we are looking in round 3-5 for another RB, we will mostly be looking for a serviceable back. Sometimes you find a star, but that’s not the norm. So why not try to acquire someone else in the RB room and not pigeonhole us into a need pick?
Freeman, Miller, Thompson, Hyde, Crowell have all had varying levels of success at the NFL level and somewhat recently. Many of them have been far better than TJ Yeldon, who couldn’t even supplant Frank Gore’s corpse last year. Not to mention some potential trade targets like Gio Bernard.
Do we really need to draft an RB2?
I think we do, the Bills need more playmaking, more speed on the field.
Yeldon didn’t play last year because Beane said the Bills wanted the downhill thumping of Gore on the field.
Freeman has battled concussions, so I automatically rule him out, with Lamar Miller people were always waiting for a breakout that never happened, Hyde and Crowell have put up the best numbers recently.
But why pay them, when a 3rd Rounder like Singletary comes in, immediately takes LeSean McCoy‘s job and is the starter going forward?
Draft another guy who is fresh, 22 years old, and ready to make plays instead of slow plodders who have peaked. Their best football is in front of them, so no need to hope for a fountain of youth.
The Bills model of guys like Tolbert, Ivory, Gore, holds back better playmakers.
I’d avoid 28-30 year old running backs like the plague.
-
2
-
-
10 minutes ago, FireChans said:
He looked older and running out of gas to me. Probably not great. Peyton Manning looked bad in 2015, but I don’t think that means he shouldn’t have won MVP in 2013 lol.
You see it in basketball more frequently, it seems like when veterans have to start changing teams at the end of their careers it’s about done.
Maybe he has some Favre magic.
-
4 minutes ago, FireChans said:
????
Rivers went 12-4 last year as a starter.
How do you think he does with the Colts in 2020?
-
13 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
The changing rules of the game I think play the biggest part in why I think this process is becoming more and more easy for QBs to come in and play relatively well immediately. This isn't like 1985 where guys were expected to come into the NFL and sit on the bench for a couple years because the college game was so far behind the pro game.
Shaw66 and jrober38, this is a point that I have maintained as well when fans throw out things like Jim Kelly's second year compared to Allen's second year, or Joe Montana completed 61% of passes.
John Elway eclipsed 4,000 yards once in 16 years and never had a 30 TD season, and only 6/16 times went over 20 TD's passing.
The statistical bar is higher now that 1992. Back in the day, 3,000 yards and 20 TD's passing, you were a solid NFL QB. Nowadays, that puts you in the Bottom 10 as far as passers.
What I don't understand is what a team like the Colts are doing? Why are they paying a washed up Rivers for a year? To do what? He is clearly declining.
In Buffalo, we thumb our noses at Jameis Winston, but really are you capped anymore with him than Allen? I think he's being undervalued. Cam looks shot, he peaked, his best days are over. Winston's decision making is poor, but he makes things happen and his passing stats would almost assuredly be better than Allen's. His defense allowed 28 ppg, the Bills defense allowed 16 ppg.
So jrober38's points make you think, do you pay Allen a mega contract, or do you try and do better? For that reason 2020 is the year for Allen. He doesn't get a free year to plateau.
-
13 minutes ago, Billl said:
I started a response to this earlier.
I think that's the reputation with Cousins. When the lights of Primetime come on, he shrinks away. That's why that Saints win is so impressive.
Dalton has a similar reputation.
I think it's difficult. One team wins the Super Bowl every year. So everyone else falls short of the goal. With Cousins you have a guy who is 31 years old, and you're trying to project whether he can win you a Super Bowl. Generally, you would think he is as good now as as he's ever going to be, and some of his core is being chipped away with the Diggs trade and Emerson G hanging out there.
-
They would have to trade their 2021 1st Rounder.
Because #54 isn't high enough to package with 3rd/4th Rounders.
-
1
-
-
47 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Neurosurgeons make more than family practice docs because their jobs are more complex. NFL teams pay QBs more because they have a similar mindset. Doesn’t make it right of course.
NFL teams copy cat too much. If I were running a team I’d give serious thought to going against the grain and basing my offense on a very strong running game. Take Singleton, get a bruising big guy that can batter a defense, and use Allen and Diggs et al when the D goes all in against the run. Think ‘72 Dolphins.
It can work, you need a strong offensive line, a QB that doesn't turn the ball over, and a defense that can hold opponents to under 16 points per game.
It's a hard way to win though. Showing up on Sunday and hoping to run over your opponent.
The Titans got far with it, the Ravens are dynamic with it, the Bills lead the league in rushing during the Rex days but didn't have the defense to fall back on.
-
1
-
1
-
-
15 minutes ago, Billl said:
It’s simple math, really. There are 32 teams, and there are maybe 10-20 people on the planet capable of being a franchise QB. Throwing numbers at the situation doesn’t change the equation.
It’s interesting to me how little ink gets devoted to what the Chiefs did. They had a franchise QB playing at his peak, and they still made a huge move to get someone they saw as a superstar. I don’t think that had ever been done before, and I know it hasn’t been done since. It was brilliant because it worked, but I don’t know who has the balls to try something similar. It does make sense that bringing a young QB in when you’ve got the ability to ease him into a good situation rather than throw him into a mess is a winning strategy, but it’s a luxury that few teams have.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see KC draft someone like Anthony Gordon in the 5th round, groom him, and trade him for a high draft pick to a QB needy team that doesn’t have the time/ability to groom their own (similar to what the Patriots did with Brissett and Jimmy G.)
You’re right, it’s not common, when something like this has happened before, Rodgers drafted while Favre was on the roster, or Manning leaving Indianapolis, the incumbent was in their late 30’s, and it was clear that the end was in sight.
The Bengals may be the most similar. They had a QB that has had good statistical seasons and made the Playoffs 5-years in a row, but their roster maxed out when their secondary started to get old, and they let Marvin Jones and M Sanu walk in the same free agency, along with Whitworth on the offensive line because he was getting too old ala London Fletcher.
-
1
-
-
49 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
I think the issue is that these guys look good when those players are on a rookie deal making $4-8 mil year with elite teams surrounding them.
The last few years has pretty clearly shown that when you pay these guys $35 mil/year and have to start sacrificing other parts of your roster to make the numbers work, most of these teams take a step backwards because ultimately the QB that they gave the huge contract to didn't actually deserve it.
6 of the 10 highest paid QBs in the NFL last year didn't make the playoffs. That's crazy to me.
The Cowboys cooked themselves. They paid Elliott top dollar and just paid Amari Cooper. So now it makes no sense to start over with a cheap rookie. Jones is obviously trying to follow the Ailman, Emmitt, Irvin model.
I read on PFT that Dak won’t participate in offseason activities until he has a new deal. Like he’s done anything to deserve being the highest paid NFL player ever.
-
Just now, GunnerBill said:
Of the three Dak is the guy I'd pay first actually. I'd pay all three to be honest but I think Dak is the best combination of consistent play and durability.
I just think in practice, it's ingrained in NFL culture, that once you find a guy who is competent, you stick with that QB until the end of the line.
Also, this isn't the 1980's and 1990's where there were just 5 guys. Now you have an expansive group in the middle that are competent, with teams that are all in various stages of team building.
Kyler Murray, Prescott, Mayfield, Goff, Carr, Wentz, Cousins, Darnold, Mayfield, Watson, Stafford, Ryan, that have all shown the ability to start and win games.
Should the Ravens be concerned about whether teams will catch up to Lamar Jackson? Or should they just go all-in to get a better team around him.
Rodgers hasn't been to a Super Bowl since 2011, but is Green Bay going to make a move to find his replacement?
The places with starting slots open is few in the NFL right now. Even the Jaguars, are they going to move off Minshew for a higher rated rookie? Is that Doug Marrone's style? No, his style is to stick with a safe known and try to build the team around that player.
-
2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Agreed and actually the likes of Brissett (who Rivers replaced), Bridgewater and Tannehill are guys I completely agree shouldn't be paid and I have always taken that view. You give them middle of the road "bridge QB contracts" that are easy to get out of. I am talking about the guys who are the level above that. The Stafford and Prescott and Wentz and Goff types.
Well those guys put up numbers, so teams feel they either pay, or it becomes an ugly standoff.
So they buckle and pay them. But Dak, Wentz and Goff are young enough that you can't totally know their peak yet so you are forced to pay. Especially the Rams, they have no draft picks. So there is no drafting competition for Goff.
And the Eagles are depleted from the their Super Bowl run at WR, and their defensive line is getting older.
Out of the three, the Cowboys could stand their ground with Dak and say win more than one Playoff game.
-
15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Whoa.... my posts were nothing to do with Josh Allen. This isn't about a specific team or specific situation for me. This is about the theory and whether, even in principle, it is a good idea. I'm unconvinced that it would ever work in practice. I think when a team doesn't find a top 15 QB they should keep drafting them. But when they do? I think you pay that guy and build around - I still believe that is the most effective route.
When teams like the Colts are convinced Rivers will win a Playoff game or take their franchise anywhere, I don't see the NFL adopting a progressive view on this for awhile.
The Titans, as far as they went last year, cling to Tannehill and Henry to try and recapture the magic of 2019.
Would the Panthers be better trying to get a rookie QB or paying Bridgewater a ton of money?
NFL teams seem to take known commodities, even if they are average at the QB position, and don't move off them in practice.
-
35 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
I'm not quoting the whole post to save muddying the overall post.
A few thoughts.
1. I think the age of the "franchise QB" is coming to an end.
2. Cam Newton is a better version of Josh Allen.
3. I think it's wrong to sign a non top 10 QB to a top 10 QB's contract.
1. While reality may prove this true as seasons go by, I think GM's are slow to come around to new ways of thinking (Dave Gettleman is still an NFL GM in 2020). The chase has been on since Marino, Elway, Favre, Manning, watching Brady win 6-Super Bowls, for teams to not operate out of fear of trying to find the guy. And you can see that once a team finds a starter, they hang onto that starter forever - the Lions are not willing to move off Stafford, the Bengals were not willing to move off Dalton until their team imploded, the Chargers kept trying with Rivers year after year, the Vikings are going again with Kirk Cousins, the Cowboys feel they have no choice but to pay for Dak Prescott. Matt Ryan and the Falcons peaked for one year, but they will not move off him until he's 40.
2. Agree. I think its almost certain that is what McDermott and Beane wanted a Cam clone. Josh is 6'5" 230 with an arm. Buddy Nix wanted the textbook Quarterback as well, that's the reason he gave for not drafting 6'0" Russell Wilson. After the 2018 Draft, Beane was telling the radio stations (WGR) that Allen's athleticism allowed RPO like Cam, and Newton's name would pop up in Bills conferences.
And we've seen a constant stream of ex-Panthers coming to Buffalo. Difference is, Cam won a National Championship, went #1 overall, and has won an NFL MVP, and since Michael Vick, the holy grail of QB has been find the guy who can pass and run. This was the crux of the argument to draft Allen in the first place. His scouting reports indicated middling production in lower level D1 and accuracy issues, so it was the classic "tools" verses a "raw" prospect. If Allen could fix the accuracy and develop a feel for the game. But he would be a statistical outlier to overcome these things.
3. Yes, it has become the new version of how the NFL Draft used to be. Where the incoming class would have to break all the guaranteed money that the previous class negotiated for. And teams have largely bent to the will of the players. From reports Dak is incredulous, as to why he is not the highest paid QB right now. Even though several rookies in the last few years have come right in and become middle of the road starters immediately.
-
2
-
Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by Straight Hucklebuck
The truth is Bills fans love the underdog, Rudy Ruettiger, win one for the Gipper, story.
Players like Fred Jackson, Kyle Williams, Doug Flutie, Steve Tasker epitomize the Bills franchise.
So with Allen there is an attachment to the overlooked prospect, that became a diamond in the rough, because that symbolizes the City of Buffalo.
I keep harping on it, but the same things were said about Trent, Fitzpatrick and Tyrod. Nobody gave them their “shot”.
Allen is right in the middle of his shot now.
Become a superstar, be a Top 5 QB, and I wouldn’t care if it wasn’t blue collar enough.