TheElectricCompany
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Posts posted by TheElectricCompany
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7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I can speculate all I want about his psyche. Players sign below-market deals - that's a fact. Brady took historically below-market deals for years - that's a fact. I'm just saying I won't be surprised if Allen surprises the market.
Brady also had multiple Super Bowl rings when he did, and I don't recall him doing that at 25.
The second contract is critical and your best time to earn big. I can't think of any recent QBs who took below market rates at that point in their career.
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36 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I'm thinking Josh might take a longer-than-usual contract, guaranteed. I don't know if dead cap money is roughly equivalent to guaranteed money, but I think it is. Mahomes looks like he has $160 of dead cap money. I could imagine Allen taking $5-10 million less in annual salary, $25-35 per year, but getting a 10-year guaranty. That would be a $300 million guaranteed deal.
I'm telling you, don't expect Allen's agent to drive this deal. Allen is a different dude.
Mahomes deal was very unique with a rolling guarantee schedule, and we should look at it as a strange outlier. His current guarantees are $141M. The other big QB deals are Watson (4 years @ $177M, $111M Guaranteed) and Wilson's the year prior (4 years @ $140M, $111M Guaranteed). Salaries continue to rise, but hundreds of millions in guarantees aren't happening yet.
The Bills don't have to anything cute here, and neither does Josh. His agent can walk into Beane's office in February (after a SB win of course) and ask for 5 years @ $200M, $135M Guaranteed and be completely reasonable.
I don't know Allen personally, and I don't think you do either. Let's not assume we know anything about his psyche. Athlete personas are a very strange thing. He might be humble, team first and wise beyond his years, but that doesn't mean he's going to sign a below market deal. The NFL is not a charity, let's not treat it as such. Players don't tag #helptheteam, it's #getthebag for a reason!
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21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
You misperceive what I'm saying. I'm not saying the Bills will lowball Josh and try to force it down his throat. I think Josh will volunteer the discount. I'm guessing, and it's only a guess, that Josh already has bought the total team concept, and that Josh already understands the impact Brady had on his old team by taking $5 million (or more) less than he could have gotten elsewhere.
Josh has surprised people throughout his career, and I think he's going to surprise people when the time comes to extend his contract.
After what happened with Dak, I don't think any agent will have his young star QB give up salary voluntarily. When you have your opportunity to cash in, you take it. "Not For Long", right?
There are tons of "total team concept" guys who get market setting contracts. It's not like QBs like Mahomes, Watson or Wilson are selfish, nor are great players like Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack or Joey Bosa.
When Josh does resign, barring a severe regression in play, it will age extremely well. His contract will look like a steal in 2-3 years.
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9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I've said for a year that I think Josh will give the Bills a discount. Josh is smart and a team guy, and he recognizes the impact of the mega-deals on the ability of the GM to put together a winner. I
I think Josh will leave money on the table.
We've sparred on this before, but I just don't see this happening.
The going rate for young, elite QBs is ~$40M annually, and we have plenty of cap space for an extension. It's a raw deal to ask your star players for hometown discounts this early in their career, and you'd hear the rumor mill wind up quickly if OBD was trying to shortchange foundational talents.
Maybe they can sneak him in for $38-$39M, but that's not really a discount. Brees and Brady deals at $25M annually are discounts.
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8 minutes ago, Big Gun said:
You should spend more time here, because your sources are enabling you to "see what you want to see".
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
I think he can't throw outside well because he doesn't have the arm strength. That throw from 7-8 yards in the pocket to 17 yards downfield on the sideline travels 35 yards in the air. To complete that pass consistently, the ball needs some real zip on it, because the windows are small - throw it too far inside and it's a potential pick six. So the ball has to go to the sideline, but can't be thrown until the cut, or just before the cut if QB and the receiver have really good communication. Sometimes the QB has to throw off balance, sometimes he can't step into it.
My impression watching Jackson is that that's a tough throw for him. He can make it, but he needs good mechanics and excellent timing. Mahomes and Allen can flip it out there and get it there faster. That means they have a bigger window, which makes the timing on the throw easier.
I can't recall a signal scouting report for Lamar that described "arm strength" as a flaw. When I watch him play, I do NOT see a guy limited by physical traits.
He does have a cool Vick esque flick throwing motion though.
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21 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
Because as he has spent more time in an offense that caters to his running instincts, the less he is working on staying in the pocket and delivering throw
25 TDs from the pocket last year...best in the league. He can do it, just needs to break the slump and get back to form. Plus, should we care how a TD is throw? A TD thrown on a play action bootleg, moving pocket or scramble drill doesn't count less. It reminds me of the Moneyball quote "He gets on base!"
I think the "he can't throw outside from the pocket" complaints are the loudest...anyone you can think of that had a similar issue? Lamar clearly is dominant in the red zone (37 TD/0 INT!), and is excellent off play action and throws between the numbers. He's had plenty of downfield strikes, so arm strength doesn't appear to be a factor. I wonder why a QB would struggle with outside throws specifically. It's weird.
If he figures outside throws out, you're talking about all time great territory, a true unicorn player.
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28 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
I'm not sure how close to his ceiling Allen is, and I agree with Shaw that I don't Lamar is going to get more athletic and run with more efficiency than he has already shown.
But to clean it up, it's this idea that Allen has unlimited potential (after we've seen him for 35 games now) and others don't have nearly that potential that I am struggling to digest, when we're 6-2, and our scoring has come down from 30 ppg to 18 ppg attributed to a soft-zone defense.
Ceilings are fun to imagine. I think we got a great preview of what Josh's might look like in September, and that's exciting. He was hitting throws with accuracy and reading coverage quickly. The "unlimited potential" thing is overdone, but that's been following him since draft day. I blame the "big guy with a big arm" takes. I hear Josh can throw the ball 80 yards, while Mahomes can only throw it 78 yards, so that must mean something.
Lamar's ceiling... he can't put up 1200 yards rushing every year, although multiple 1000+ yard seasons aren't out of the question. What's the ideal mix between passing and rushing for him? Tough to say. I think his ceiling is still a bit hazy. The floor is more established...I think he's good for 30+ TDs and and ~4000 yards of offense annually.
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1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
This board has a hard on to put Lamar down. It’s really strange. He has arguably the worst group of receivers in the nfl. He definitely has his flaws but it’s really, really strange why folks here seem to root for him to fail.
There are fair critiques of him that I think we can all acknowledge, but the "Jackson can't throw", "Jackson hasn't progressed" , takes are really lazy and disrespectful.
I don't understand how anyone could watch Lamar play and think he's some kind of flash in the pan. He's a tremendous young QB with a very bright future ahead.
1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:In general, here's why I think I'm correct about this. I think if you look at the long-term history of the NFL, it's always been about offensive innovation and defensive response. The defense eventually always figures out how to stop the offense. In some cases it takes weeks, in some cases it takes a season, in some cases it's more. Eventually the defenses begin to win.
The defense that can win season to season is quickly becoming a unicorn. There's too much variability of that side of the ball. Look at our own roster, we've fallen off a cliff this year! Keeping this on the Ravens, they faced an elite Steelers defense that KNEW they love to run, and they STILL put up 250+ rushing yards. I know we love to cling to this narrative that defense wins championships, but that ship has sailed. Offenses have made the vast majority of defenses their B word.
Now, can the best defenses contain the best QBs? Absolutely. The "blueprint" is the same for all great QBs - get pressure with 4 rushers and drop the rest into zone. If you have a mobile QB, then you keep a LB in spy. Easy to scheme up, extremely difficult to execute.
We've seen all sorts of creative scheming in the past decade, but let's not forget that some of the best players make extraordinary plays off "normal" looks. The Titans love to run dive plays with Henry, good luck stopping him. The Chiefs will run streaks with Hill, good luck keeping up. Michael Thomas loves his quick slants and outs, good luck stopping him.
If you let them, the Ravens will run the read option until February - good luck stopping them.
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45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
I think Jackson is great at what he does. I just don't think any team can enjoy long-term success playing like that, and I think we've already begun to see that he's reaching the plateau from which his gradual decline will begin. Just like Newton and Vick plateaued and declined. When your offense depends on the QB running, your passing game suffers, and when your passing game suffers, your offense is too limited to win consistently. Unless Jackson can morph into a version of Russell Wilson or Drew Brees, and he hasn't shown much ability to do that yet, he is not going to be one of the top QBs for the next decade.
A couple of things...
1.) Defensive play continues to decline across the league. Right now,. the Dolphins are #1, allowing 18 PPG. The best numbers in 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 12.6, 14.5 and 17. The "defenses will figure great players out" narrative simply isn't as impactful as it was even a decade ago.
2.) They have won consistently. Lamar holds one of the best, if not the best, W/L records of ANY modern NFL QB since he became a starter. This is not a case of a team sneaking into a wild card slot, they have been one of the NFL"s elite teams since he took the job. That team was trash, with Harbaugh on the chopping block, and he immediately gets them into the playoffs and follows it up with a MVP, #1 seed season. Yes, he needs a few more big wins on his resume, but he has already beat an undefeated Tom Brady, Russel Wilson and Deshaun Watson.
3.) There are NFL players who sometimes have traits at another level. It's not about being elite, it's about there being a gap between your ability and the other elite players. I think we see it with Mahomes throwing ability, Tyreek Hills speed and Aaron Donalds line play. OBJ, JJ Watt and Darrelle Revis all had multiple years of similar mind boggling production. I think Lamar has that with his running ability. His talents as a runner, and being in a scheme that emphasize that talent, are really unprecedented. That play against Washington earlier this year where he took an inside read 50 yards and only had his arm slapped? That is truly a play no other active QB can make, and barring a catastrophic injury, will separate him from the pack for many years.
4.) I don't think he'll ever be Wilson or Brees, that's not his skillset. I think he'll always be best if he's in a run first attack that sets up chunk yardage through play action. That's the Roman offense and Shanahan/Kubiak offense to a T. Can you win with that? Absolutely.
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40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
.Jackson is just as mediocre in the pocket now as he was in 2018.
He isn't a good thrower. He doesn't have a good standard throwing motion. He doesn't have the arm strength to make the mid-range sideline throws with zip and accuracy.
28 pages in, and we're still stuck on these points. I just don't get it, but we all have our hills to die on. The other stuff has been discussed countless times across this thread.
We can't wait to rake Lamar over the coals when he loses to the Chiefs or undefeated Steelers (they were in it until the final play), but expect patience and understanding when our own QB is in a slump, losing to two elite teams, eeking out wins against the lowly Jets and Patriots, and struggling against zone coverage. It's also strange that the explosive runs we saw in 18 and 19 aren't happening this year.
I wonder if the talking heads will pick up the "Has Josh Allen reverted to form? " takes if we lose big to the Seahawks...
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30 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
I don't think the point was to compare Kaepernick and Taylor as running or passing talents with Jackson. I agree they're not in the same room. I think the point was that his OC, Roman, developed an innovative offense around the skills of these QB that initially had success according to the talents on the team, and then got kind of "solved".
I think there are a couple of things. I don't know if it's true or not, but when Roman was the Bills OC, some people (both here and media 'experts') felt that his passing game was not as well designed as it could have been - and drew examples from SF. So there could be some limitations there.
Personally I think he misses those beatiful 3 TE sets they ran last year. I understand why they did it, but trading away Hayden Hurst may have been a mistake.
Great points...
Taylor got the "system QB" treatment from Roman. He was always below average, but in Roman's offense, he became average. Kaep was great for 2 years, and I remember all sorts of highlight reels, but his numbers are surprisingly underwhelming. I think an underrated factor in his demise was the toxic mess SF found itself in for 3 years before Shanahan and Lynch.
It's very likely that Lamar has more success with 2-3 tight end sets. I know PFF is frowned upon around here, but they've talked about it before in their podcasts. The 3 and 4 receiver looks aren't always helpful to young QBs (Baker Mayfield is a good example).
18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:Different running styles.
Vick had great speed, better power, more fluid moves. I'd prefer Jackson in tight spaces, but I'd take Vick in the open field. You know those 20-25 yard scrambles Josh Allen has? Those are touchdowns for Vick.
It's a fun theoretical matchup, running only, I'd say Jackson is better at straight line speed, designed runs and making guys miss in a phone booth. Vick wins at broken play improvisation and sideline to sideline elusiveness.
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Kaep and Taylor in the same realm as Lamar? Get outta here. At least it's debatable with Vick and Cunningham. Vick and Lamar are allegedly <4.35 guys, which is just insane.
I don't think Roman's offense, or his supporting cast, are major problems. Could they use more playmakers? Sure - what team (besides KC!) doesn't? They've clearly prioritized RBs, TEs and the OL and have many great players there. Their WR room seems below average, but its not atrocious. The offense has proven itself to be extremely effective and well suited to Lamar's skillset, but I don't think they do as well as "scheming WRs open" for easy completions and big YAC gains, like McVay and Shanahan can.
Lamar simply needs to be more consistent. In this slump, he's missing throws hes made many times. I think he'll get back on track in the coming weeks.
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1 hour ago, jrober38 said:
Let the Dems and GOP cater to their most radical supporters and let someone else run a campaign straight down the middle on responsible spending and letting people do whatever the hell they want with social issues.
Meet the Libertarian Party - socially liberal and fiscally conservative!
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I was hoping for a better performance from the Libs! 3.2% in 2016, 1.1% today.
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24 minutes ago, HT02 said:
Absolutely, that is just my projection of his potential. I think he is a top 10 QB in the league but not as you said ""MVP who has revolutionized the league" he was way overrated last year. I think we are on the same page.
He wasn't overrated last year..it was arguably the best dual threat QB season we've ever seen.
On offense, there are three pretty indisputable things the Ravens offense has shown since LJ became the starter. 1) Elite running performance 2) Red Zone efficiency and 3) Chunk yardage off play action. Lamar is the catalyst for all three. Assuming they can keep these up, the playoff wins should follow.
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28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
It’s fair points re: the offense but from what I’ve seen he still isn’t capable of throwing that team to a significant W
and he has looked bad in their biggest games thus far
The Chiefs, Steelers and Titans have had his number, otherwise, he's been pretty unstoppable. I think he has the best W/L record in modern NFL history (Saw that as an insight on the NFL gametracker) since he became a starter. Like I've said though, the "win a big game" is a fair critique. When you're the MVP, the expectation is that your team is going deep into the playoffs. He needs to deliver.
"Isn't capable of throwing that team to a win"...those 5 TD games, or 150+ passer performances, would check the boxes for me. Of course, I think you can't isolate the running from his performance, because he can win games just through that ability.
21 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:
Why ? The Ravens are in the AFCI hope he loses in the first round of the playoffs 5 more times.
More Lamar Dalton please.
I love competitive football, and Josh VS Lamar, Mahomes or Watson in January is great football.
Lamar Dalton LOL - 0-2 in the postseason isn't that horrific.
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9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
I mean he’s 27th in yards and attempts, 30th in completion %, 22nd in ANY/A
That’s an objectively bad borderline terrible half season of throwing the football
Yards/attempts is more of a function of his offense. Last year, he was very efficient on those attempts, this year, not so much. Reasonable critique on ANY/A and completion.
Bad/terrible play?I think that's overdone, but if these are the only stats we want to look at, it's not that egregious.
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
The TDs are nice but realistically the guy is not having a good year throwing the football
He's missing some throws, no doubt. He's still having a good year, but it's just that, good.
I want to see some games where he gets back to peak MVP form!
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Fun thread. I picked my "hill to die on", I guess I need to defend it.
Yes, he is in a a slump. The more important question is "can he break out of it"? I'd argue yes. I like to think that QBs that can throw 5 TDs OR run for 150+ yards can figure it out.
Even in a down year, he's pacing for 27 TDs / 9 Picks for 3069 yards passing, 939 yards and 4 TDs running. That's how high the bar is with Lamar - think about that! If your QB can produce that type of offense year after year, you're going to contend for championships.
While I think the "he can't win big games" and "he can't throw outside" takes are way overdone, they are clearly the narrative against him right now, and that's OK. It comes with the MVP territory. Barring a complete catastrophe, the Ravens will be in the playoffs this year, and he'll have some opportunities to change those narratives.
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13 minutes ago, Gugny said:
Well, I'm not comparing Jackson to Allen.
My point is that BAL could spend money/draft picks and get a big, stud WR, but it would be a waste of $$/a pick.
Jackson's brain doesn't work fast enough to get beyond the first read and he can't read defenses. As someone mentioned upstream, teams know that he can't hit the perimeters with accuracy and he lives over the middle of the field.
Any decent defense can just take away those tight ends over the middle and stop the run.
Making Lamar be a QB is the key to beating the Ravens and teams with good coaching/defense can do that. Again ... as proven in the playoffs.
"He can't read defenses" is a lame take; I think he's shown plenty of ability that show otherwise. He has 37 TDs to 0 INT in the red zone. Hell, that pick-6 yesterday was the first of his career.
The current narrative is "make him hit outside throws" and "he needs to win big games". Both are valid critiques, and based on what he's shown us, I think he'll make strides in both areas. At 23, he has many chapters to write in his story, and I think one or more will feature a Lombardi.
The key to beating Lamar...I'm stealing this from the Ringer, but it's the same key to beating other elite QBs. Get pressure with 4 linemen and neutralize his favorite read (in his case, it's that deadly TE seam route). If you're lucky, you have a LB who can spy him and actually keep him from running, but that's one of those challenging matchups in football.
Anyway, this horse has been beaten to a pulp, and he remains a very polarizing player, despite a MVP. Championships cure all.
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They are 5-2 - he'll be fine, but he should accept he'll never catch 100 balls in a Greg Roman offense.
Their offense has been pretty good all year, but they haven't been destroying teams like in 2019. I guess you can't run for 3200 yards every year 😁
I think they'll figure it out and hit their stride by December.
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3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:
not sure how the Saints always find a way to squeeze the cap.
2021 is where it gets really interesting, they are $80M over the cap!
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Hot takes are fun, I'll play.
The league is a strange place, and I like to think that somebody will try this eventually. I'm not talking about a Dak or Cousins situation, where they play the franchise tag game for a year or two. I'm talking about letting him walk, or trade him by year 4 or 5. Quick asterisk...there are arguably 6-8 QBs in the league that are truly irreplaceable. Those guys aren't part of this conversation, and I think we all know who belongs on that list.
Beyond that, there are some good to great players that are not yet in their twilight years, but will still demand a big contract. Carr, Cousins and Stafford come to mind. If you draft a starting QB, and his ceiling appears to be at that level, why wouldn't you consider an upgrade? If you want to sneak into wild card slots occasionally, they'll get you there, but if you want championships, you have to aim higher.
If you pull it off correctly, you could have an extremely deep roster for 5-7 years. In the event your QB is a true irreplaceable superstar, then move some players and give him a blank check.
The End of the Lamar Jackson Era
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by TheElectricCompany
I like how this thread keeps getting bumped.
They had a quality win against a very good team Sunday. It seems they schemed up some easy throws for him in the 2nd half and he got into a nice groove. It wasn't a slump busting game, but he just keeps on winning. 25-5 to start his career (tied Marino's record)
Think he gets another 1000+ yard rushing season? He's trending towards 940!