HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Yea he has only failed to have 1,000 yards once and that year he missed 3 games.
He missed 4 games this past season and still ended up over 1,000 yards in a run heavy offense... I have no clue how anyone could argue he isn't elite. For my money he's on track to end up in the Hall of Fame if he keeps up his pace.
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13 minutes ago, appoo said:
Those were the only seasons he got past 1000 yards
If you're going to make an outlier claim, at the very least you need to get your basic facts straight.
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Just now, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:
I don't blame the fans for being impatient because if he was drafted as a long-term project and not expected to make an impact then the Bills should have had far more talent and depth at WR.
The Bills, because of their own poor management over the last 5-7 years, NEED Keon Coleman to be an impact player-- they needed it last year too and failed to accomplish the ultimate goal when it didn't happen.
It's not the fans' fault, it's Sean McDermott, Brandon Beane, and ultimately Terry Pegula's fault.
Yeah I agree with that FWIW. They set Coleman up to fail by having no backup plan in place and not enough talent around him to draw attention. If they expected him to hit the ground running that was a mistake. To be fair, Coleman is also responsible for his own failures in the back half of the season if it's true that he didn't attack his rehab as vigorously as he needed to.
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50 minutes ago, 947 said:
For a WR to get open quickly, he needs acceleration & suddenness, and that area has proven to be the weakest part of Keon's game. He does a lot of other things well, but if he can't improve on his initial acceleration, he'll continue to struggle getting open.
That is not the only way to get open in the NFL. The Bills didn't draft Coleman because they expected him to totally transform his playing style and suddenly become a twitchy route runner. They drafted him because they thought he could develop the ability to use his size and strength to box out defenders and create leverage at the catch point, in addition to his YAC skills. And that is absolutely a viable skill set for high volume NFL WRs. Watch some of AJ Brown's signature plays in this past Super Bowl - he may not be clearly separating from Trent McDuffie but he bullies him so bad at the top of the route and at the catch point that it doesn't matter.
But it's this kind of thinking that makes a lot fans believe Elijah Moore, who was statistically one of the worst WRs in the NFL last year, is going to come in and thrive because he supposedly has good "separation metrics." Diggs had great separation metrics too and then got shut down annually by physical coverage in the playoffs when we needed him most. Coleman was presumably drafted to overcome this perennial thorn in our side.
I know nobody wants to be patient with young players but that was always going to be necessary with Coleman's skill set. He was not drafted to be a year one difference maker which is why he fell to the top of the 2nd. He was drafted with a long term development plan in mind. He had a two game stretch of Tennessee to Seattle where you saw a glimpse of his high ceiling, and then it all came crashing down. The question is not whether Coleman's skill set is capable of producing at a high volume, the question is if he will develop his skill set enough to hit that ceiling.
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1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:
I’m curious if you think any part of it is the history of these players or who we target. As an example, would it at all be surprising to see Bernard, Benford, Rapp, or Milano go down? 2 of the 4 we just extended. We do target small players on all three levels. Many are physically maxed out. Like a Milano, who just felt like his body would just give way eventually. Even Mad Max missed several games at Kentucky this past year. I don’t know this answer but I have considered it.
I’m hesitant to draw too much from the injuries just because I don’t believe people have an intimate understanding of what other teams are going thru. Bengals playoff game they had half the offensive line out. Lions last year were completely depleted. We have never lost Josh and for the most part have sustained no significant injuries on offense in how many years? Meanwhile tons of teams have lost critical players that have basically knocked them out of even the playoffs.
I just think leaning into the injuries as a reason is a dangerous game. Do we expect to be any healthier than last year again? Do we know relative comparisons to say how disadvantaged we have been? I don’t know if it’s all that severe in the scheme of things. Not sure and I haven’t met a poster here that had the information to really shed any light on it.
We played the Ravens without Zay Flowers and at no point have I thought our win was lessened by that fact. There are rare cases where injuries really do become too much to overcome - the Lions last year are a good example actually - but most of the time they're an annoying inconvenience, not an insurmountable obstacle.
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32 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
First need to be relatively healthy, but I still put alot of issues on talent 1st, coaching 2nd.
We'll find out soon enough. I'm not asking us to do what Philly just did. If KC punts 3 times against us that will immediately go down as our best playoff performance against them. I think 4+ punts and less than 27 points should be a bare minimum baseline expectation for a defense that just invested a ton of salary and draft picks, and has a very experienced defensive head coach facing what has basically become a divisional opponent.
Honestly looking at just the investments spent the 2025 Bills really SHOULD be led by the defense first. We shouldn't need to score 30+ PPG to go 13-3 like we did last year. KC just went 15-1 scoring 24 PPG... That is seemingly the type of team McDermott and Beane want to build. So go prove that their strategy can work, or else what are we doing here?
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1 minute ago, appoo said:
That team probably wins a Super Bowl in Brock’s first year and almost knocked the chiefs off with Brock playing well in a Super Bowl.
He didn't play well. Missed a bunch of passes to wide open WRs. Any hint of pressure in the pocket and he completely wilted. And he wasn't much better in the NFCCG against the Lions that year either. He's a perfect bridge QB that they're now paying like one of the elites.
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Massive mistake IMO. I give it 2-3 years before they're looking for a way out.
Purdy is the definition of QB purgatory. Just good enough to be fearful of letting him go, but not good enough to win it all. He was the QB of a team of superstars in their prime with elite offensive coaching and his play in the Super Bowl directly cost that team their chance at glory. And with his new salary they'll never be able to build that caliber of team around him again.
I think Kyle Shanahan could someday go the Andy Reid route of getting fired after 10+ years of disappointing playoff exits, going to a new team where he finds his elite QB, then start racking up championships.
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2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:
Even the more recent narrative of just need a defensive talent infusion is accurate, but we have had very high performing defenses in the past and that's what this data is made from.
This season should give us the final answer on the talent vs coaching argument as it pertains to playoff defense. No we don't have all-pros at every level of the defense, but throughout this offseason we have spent a ton of resources on talented players that are scheme fits, we've brought in new defensive coaches with different schematic backgrounds, and we've extended several defensive players presumably with the coaching staff's blessing. So they have to make this group work. There can't be any excuses. If we once again watch KC's offense move up and down the field at will in January that has to be the signal that no amount of investment is ever going to be enough for McDermott's defense to get it done.
With all of that being said, I'm not predicting one way or another if the investments will lead to a different result. I'm hopeful that it will. Mostly I'm glad the excuses are off the table. Time to just get it done.
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20 minutes ago, Lost said:
Somehow this will screw the Bills. It always does
Might help us actually. Imagine the Bengals get in as the #7 seed at 10-7 and the Texans win the AFCS at 9-8 (not a super unlikely scenario). If we're the #2 seed, in the current format we'd play the Bengals even though the Texans would be the more favorable opponent. In the new proposed format we'd play the Texans because they'd now be the lower seed. So as a higher seed you'd always be guaranteed to face the worst remaining team based on record.
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11 minutes ago, Simon said:
I guess that's what it really boils down to.
For me it's a guy that does multiple things at a very high level, is highly respected by both his teammates and opponents and causes coaches to specifically have to deal with him a certain way every week.
Personally I classify elite players as players who are specifically game planned against but still make game changing plays. Guys where just planning around them isn't enough. So it's somewhat subjective, I'm not basing it on stats or media voting. Spencer Brown may not be an official all-pro but to me he's elite because he changes the way our offense functions and there's nothing a defense can do to stop it. That's what separates Ed Oliver from say Chris Jones. You can take Oliver out of a game, Jones you can only slow down and hope he doesn't get you too bad.
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2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:
Every talking head and most fans of other NFL teams alike posed the question multiple times all year "why did they take Cook off the field"? Specifically after we lost to the Chiefs. Even as a Bills fan, i've often questioned taking our best offensive weapon off the field for a better blocker.
You could definitely make the argument we should have ran the ball more on that final drive since Cook had clearly been our best skill player. I will say though we had him out there on the final 2nd down and he whiffed on his block which prevented Allen from completing his pass to an open Samuel... And then on 3rd and medium should he have been out there? Probably not. That is the give and take with Cook's skill set. What he adds to the rushing offense he takes from the passing offense. That's why he has been a 50% snap player for us.
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27 minutes ago, sven233 said:
Benford did receive 1 All Pro vote if I remember correctly. He's very good. "Elite"? Not in my opinion. He's got great numbers, but I don't look at him like a true shut down CB that you will have travel with the best WRs in the league.
For my money there's really only two guys in that tier though, Surtain and Stingley. Then's there a cluster of really good CBs with little discernible difference from one to another and Benford to me fits in cleanly to that group. It's really hard in the modern NFL for a CB to be a true game changing player. In that light I view the position the same way that I view OT. And Brown is someone I personally would put into the elite category already even though it has just been the one elite season, but again an elite RT is not going to be a true game changer.
The Bills problem is that pass rushers and pass catchers are the biggest game changers (behind QB obviously) and we don't have anyone that really comes close to being elite at those positions. Oliver is very good, Rousseau is very good although more as a run stopper than a pass rusher, and Shakir is very good but plays a limited role. When you look at Super Bowl teams in recent years they usually have an elite pass catcher AND an elite pass rusher, sometimes multiple of each. Without either the margins are slim. Allen is almost enough on his own to overcome it, but unfortunately "almost" has been the ceiling. Hopefully Bosa rejuvenates his career and/or we get immediate impact from Sanders or Jackson. As far as pass catchers... hope that Kincaid or Coleman take a huge step forward.
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19 minutes ago, corta765 said:
Additionally finishing at home vs NY week 18 kinda blows because it very likely will not matter.
It will be a fun trick question in 20 years. Which QB started the final regular season game at Rich Stadium? Mitch Trubisky, of course.
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Not to whistle past the graveyard but this feels like a mistake for Baltimore... Giving a big contract to a 30+ year old RB is pretty risky.
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9 minutes ago, Southern McButterpants. said:
Sal is reporting Ravens @ Bills - SNF Week 1 - not the Bengals.
Damn I was hoping to get them later in the season after Henry racked up more miles and Lamar is due for another mid-season injury. Missing Hoecht for that game is going to suck too. But that's a game we probably have to win if we want the #1 seed. The margins at the top of the AFC are going to be slim.
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6 hours ago, Pete said:
Anthony says Dalton is not a bust. That he has a great feel for zones.
That was in his college scouting report but hasn't been true in the pros IMO.
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I guess I can't 100% trust this guy anymore but good news if true, no Christmas game.
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This is getting ugly:
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7 hours ago, DCofNC said:
We’ll see if Cook is what he thinks he is this year, if he comes to camp late or plays games, don’t be surprised when McD names one of the other guys the starter and won’t let Cook get touches for 6 weeks.
No chance. McDermott would lose the locker room if he did that. Every player can see in practice that Cook moves at a different level from the RBs behind him. If McDermott put him in the doghouse because of a very common negotiation tactic, he loses his grip on the team.
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Dalton Kincaid Still Skinny
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
This is a good selection of plays and Erik's framing of the problem is exactly right - it's miscues between Allen and Kincaid leading to a lot of these.
Something I notice is that Kincaid's movements are a lot of times unpredictable, the speed and direction of his routes is a little all over the place. Which makes it impossible for Allen to deliver accurate passes. I think Kincaid lacks confidence in his own ability to read the defense, and that lack of confidence is showing up in his sporadic route running.
On a couple of these plays he is running past an open zone window into coverage, or inexplicably slowing down when he should instead continue running into open space. Allen needs to be able to know where Kincaid is headed and trust that Kincaid is reading the spacing properly, and in these clips that is clearly not happening.
Also in these clips Kincaid fails to make a single difficult catch. If you're going to be a primarily pass catching TE in the NFL you need to be able to occasionally rip a ball away from a LB or scoop a low pass. It can't always be perfect.
The margin for error with him was overall just way too low because of his route running and catch ability. No wonder we kept his ADOT low and made Knox the primary target on deeper throws. I know the team's messaging has been that he needs to get his strength up. I continue to believe that his biggest area of improvement will actually come in the film room. Separation only counts if you end up in the right spot to create the best possible throwing window. Separating but then continuing to run into coverage might make your separation metrics look better, but it doesn't make an effective route.