MAJBobby

I am not, to be honest I want to move on. the Change from Bobby Johnson (made the OL at least maybe AVG to the point Josh could cover the holes alot) to Kromer and once again the OL becomes a tire fire with regression in every position on the OL. I would LOVE to move on, I just dont think the Bills will. I ran this out. I can fit those three players with about 13M cap hit in 2023. I offset some of that with a 6M savings from Morse. So where would I get the other 7 from, just to get back to baseline? Von Miller, I turn his 13.5M roster bonus (guaranteed already) into a signing bonus prorate it 2.7M a year starting in 2024, and save 13.5M against this years cap.

OK here we are the second position group offseason primer. I went with the WR/TE group, because IMO the top two priorities this offseason should be the OL (first one) and WR/TE (this one). So what you will likely see is I will finish out the offense and then move over to the defense. Unlike the OL there will be more individual stats posted in my analysis here, because well position groups have a lot to work from. I know there will be many here that don’t agree with me and that is fine, but it Is my Opinion we had one of if not arguably the weakest WR/TE group out of all the playoff teams. That is something that will have to change, and to be honest the way to do that is only really have one that you buy and then an elite Stud on a Rookie Deal. That gives so much flexibility. The Bengals are the Bengals (probably the most complete team in the league) because majority of their studs are all on Rookie Deals. Watch what happens when Cheap Paul Brown has to start cutting those 100M contracts. The standard disclaimer: I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information. I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats. Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future. So here we go … Financials: Pretty Big Update here with the Futures Signings Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M Cap Space (top 51): -15.984M (one thing on this and I should have put it in one of the earlier writeups as well. OTC shows that the Bills can get up to 55M in space with just simple restructures and 76.6M in space on Max restructure capability. WRs – 7 players on contact taking up 12.30% of CAP, 17th highest in the NFL. TEs - players on contact taking up 3.59% of CAP, 19th highest in the NFL. WR is a one player top heavy group with Stef Diggs taking Up 20.26M in cap on a position group all 7 players account for a 27.88M cap hit as a hole. So I think the Bills are set up a bit correctly here with one paid In his prime and small and rookie contracts filling out the group. So the theory with this set up would be your next Rookie Contract player should make a choice, it he a WR1? If the answer is yes you can then look to flip your aging WR1 that is on the Big Cap hit as you sign your younger player to their Big cap hit. However I do not see the Bills in that position at all. As the next best WR (Gabe Davis) is arguably not even a WR2, going into his final year of his rookie deal. RFA WRs / TE None UFA WRs / TE Cole Beasley (WR) – 34 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – Nothing to see here as was a PS player elevated every game late in the Season. – First thing I will say is this is really telling of the status of the Bills WR groups that you have to sign two retirees late in the season gearing up for your playoff run. Not much here to really talk about due to the limited amount of games. But I have NO desire to bring Beasley back on this team, there is no juice left to squeeze there, Unless he is willing to accept the league Min here for him which is just over 1M I do not want him on the team taking snaps away from Shakir or my new rookies. It is time to turn the page here. John Brown (WR) – 33 years old, Cap It in 2022 – Nothing to see here just like Beasley – This is a mirror image as above, just turn the page there is nothing left in this turnip. Move on, would not be worth the Vet Min IMO, at least I could maybe get convinced of a vet min on Beasley. Turn the Page from the 2019/2020 Bills already. Jamison Crowder (WR) – 30 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.98M, The story of the lost year. I think he was on pace for solidifying the slot early in the season then went down with Injury (actually likely predictable giving his recent INJ problems in NY). When he went down in Baltimore I do think that is when you saw the “growth of the Dorsey offense” stop and the Bills went back to a poor man’s Daboll type offense. That said I think the lost year cost him his roster spot in the future with the Bills, so I let him walk. Jake Kumerow (WR) – 31 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 895K – And the final member of the over 30 listless WR crowd I bring you Jake Kumerow. I have nothing more to say here than Move on. Tommy Sweeney (TE) – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 654K – Nothing to say here, has been given EVERY opportunity to make a name for himself and failed. Moving on from him as Morris has passed him on the depth chart. On Contract Stefon Diggs age 30, 8.94% of cap, 20.256M cap hit (There is a slight savings with a Post June 1 Cut, better savings with a post June 1 trade) – OK I had to put the savings information here, but next year Diggs isn’t going anywhere, his true first out is after the 2024 season. Now that said there is a simple restructure opportunity here with a 7.9M base, I personally would not go into his contract for money if possible. Because starting in 2024 his base numbers are (18.5, 18, 19, 14.4). As he gets older I am less and less inclined with touching his contract and kicking that can down the road. However that being said Diggs SHOULD age rather gracefully as a WR, because of his route running ability and how he takes care of his body on the field. One can argue Diggs is coming off his best year as a Buffalo Bill. Which is very encouraging as he ages. 154 targets (best year 166 – 20), Rec 108 (best yr 127 – 20), yards 1429 (best year 1525 – 20), Yards per Rec 13.2 (Best as a Bill), TDs 11 (Best as a Bill) 70.1% catch % (Best year 76.5% - 20), Yards per Target 9.3 (best as a Bill). All Pro Second Team, Pro Bowl. In 3 years in Buffalo Stef already met or exceeded the 5 years of his career in Minny. Some advanced numbers: Total Air Yards before catch 1010 (2020 was 1071 and 2021 was 899), which points to him running a bit deeper routes this year. He had 419 yards after catch this year which was an increase to his 326 last year. He did have 8 drops this year (2020 he had 8 as well) which is the most he has logged in a year. But had a career best of 120.3 rating when passes went his way. The numbers show that he was the best producing (outside of Allen) on Offense which we all already know. However what is encouraging here is that there is no significant drop off with Diggs, so that helps me believe he will age well and this contract will not be an issue in the future even if we do a restructure here this year or next year. Gabriel Davis age 24, 0.52% of cap, 1.18M cap hit (1.01M in savings) – Final year of his Rookie Deal. I am not touching this contract. He was in position to earn that extension this offseason, I don’t personally think he earned that contract extension yet. I would have him play out his rookie deal and address it in the next offseason. In terms of his numbers as the Full time No2 last year you would hope to see real growth and it isn’t just there for the increase of looks he got. Gabe had 93 targets (this is a 30 target increase over his past years), 48 catches (13 catch increase), 836 yards (300 yard increase, this was the biggest increase he had), 17.4 yards per reception this was in line with his rookie year and an increase of 1.7 yards per over last year). 7 TDs is right in line with where he was in first two years with 30 less targets. 51.6% catch rate, this is a decrease (meaning more incomplete when targeted) than he had last year, to be honest this has decreased EVERY year, (56.5% rookie year, 55.6% in 2021, 51.6% last year) he had 9 drops this year and a massive 20 point drop in rating when targeted from 103.2 (100.1 rookie year) to a 80.8 rating when targeted this past year. So even with the increase in targets there was minimal to no improvement in all the other stats, and in some areas is a regression in some KEY areas. This is why I think I am just letting him play out his contract this upcoming year. He still only really runs 5 routes and IMO regressed this year even becoming a more prominent target eater. Isaiah McKenzie, age 29, 1.11 % against cap, 2.52M cap hit (2.225M savings) – I know many here will want him gone, and I probably would get there too. He can be released anytime this offseason and realize those savings. The big thing there is no triggered guarantees somewhere in this contract. Lets get in the numbers. Targets 65 (career Best), 42 receptions (career best), 27 first downs (Career Best), Catch % 64.6% (best year was 88.2% in 2020), 4 TDs, 6 drops a 90.7 rating when targeted. Now lets look at Davis, when you have a massive increase in targets you would hope to see some career bests and you do see them with McKenzie. Also the Numbers say he was the second highest rating when targeted in WRs that had over the 60 Targets (2nd to Diggs) those numbers do not scream a problem to me. And If I get those numbers similar in 2023 at the Small cap hit of 2.52M that would be a value contract there. However I also think I can replace that production with a rookie as well so could get some cap savings with McKenzie being released, but to be honest there is progression here with increased usage compared to Gabe Regression with increased usage. Khalil Shakir age 23, 0.41% against cap, 956K cap hit (696K potential savings) – Seldom used Rookie (I just don’t get the reluctance to play rookies early on offense with this team) But on defense those rookies sure do start or log meaningful snaps early. I can go through from Allen (they didn’t want him to play his rookie year), Davis, Cook, Shakir, Hodgins, far to often I have noticed Rookies on Offense get shelved early. I thought he would be used A LOT more than he was, and when he did get used seemed to make plays. Anyway the numbers 20 targets, 10 receptions, 161 yards 50% catch rate and a 94.0 rating when targeted. Playoffs he saw much more usage with 7 targets 5 receptions 91 yards, 71.4% catch rate and a rating when targeted of 94.0. He as a Rookie had a above 90 rating when targeted. And this is why I don’t want to bring back any of the retirees to take targets from Him in the Future. Keesean Johnson, age 27, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (1.01M potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 6th round Draft pick of Cardinals in 2019), been on Cardinals, Eagles (PS) and Atlanta. Former Fresno State WR (followed DeVante Adams), He is a 6’1 201 with 4.6 timed speed. So, a Size player being brought into Camp. I don’t expect much here at already 27 and on his 4th team. Dezmon Patmon, age 25, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (1.01M potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 6th round Draft pick of Colts in 2020), Size, Speed Candidate. 6’4 225 with a timed 4.48 speed. Here is what one writeup on his draft said “Big pass-catcher with intriguing size but lacking the assertiveness to impose his will. Patmon suffers from an overall lack of suddenness to uncover on both the first and second levels and issues with focus drops is an additional concern since he'll see plenty of contested catches. He has decent buildup speed, body control and ball skills to compete for 50/50 balls, but he doesn't always play with "my-ball" attitude. He's big but limited and must play with better confidence and toughness to carve out a roster spot.” I think there is a chance he lands on the roster (unless we address WR in UFA and Draft, we just don’t have this type of player with Hodgins on Giants now). What is interesting here is out of the three Futures Deals he got 10k in guaranteed money, not groundbreaking by any means but Johnson was 6,500 and Coulter was 5,000. Isaiah Coulter, age 25, 0.41% against cap, 940K cap hit (940K potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 5th round Draft pick of Texans in 2020), what is interesting about this futures signing, is that it is a 2 year deal. He is also on contract in 2024 for 1.055M cap hit. He was a Raw Size Speed guy coming out of college, here is one writeup. “Raw but talented X receiver with NFL-caliber length, speed and athletic ability. He runs a limited route tree and doesn't show enough attention to detail in his route work, but he's loose and fluid with the ability to get that area corrected. He lets coverage off the hook when he doesn't burst and separate like he's capable of, but he has access to plenty of juice when needed. While improvement should be expected, learning to play with better catch aggression and ball-tracking is not a given. Coulter is an explosive, high-upside talent with functional-starter upside, but a lower floor.” Dawson Knox (TE), age 27, 2.8% against cap, 6.425M cap hit (There is uber small savings with a post June 1st move) – In terms of the year I don’t want to frag him a bit losing his brother, and based on what seemed like lack of usage for most of the season by design or to help out in blocking. But then I looked at the numbers and he was right in line with what he did last year as well. 65 targets (71 last year), 48 catches (49 last year) 517 yards (587 last season) 6 tds (9 last year). So the numbers really don’t show what my eyes did that he was not used and nonexistent. Rating when targeted was 108.3, so next to Diggs was the second highest rated weapon when targeted. His catch rate at 73.8% was the highest in his career with only 4 drops which was the same number he had in 2021, 2020. 25 of his catches resulted in a 1st this was down 10 from the year before. Quintin Morris, age 24, 0.40% against cap, 870K cap hit (870K potential savings) – To be honest this is the one I am upset about the most. Wanted a second pass catching TE the 6’4 251 beat out both Sweeney and Howard in the offseason and then went MIA in the offensive design. Essentially after the Pittsburg game he was designed out of the offense which also coincided with the going to calling plays from a poor mans daboll design. Finished the season with 11 targets, 8 catches 84 yards 6 of those catches were for a First down, had a 72.7% drop rate and a rating of 124.8 when targeted. IMO if they actually use him more than what they have it will provide for more balance and better run blocking than going all wide all the time, also keeps the defense in their base set, but have 2 pass catchers to exploit those LBers and Safeties. I think he was grossly under used last year. Zach Davidson, age 25, 0.40% against cap, 870K cap hit (870K potential savings) –Futures Signing (Former 5th round Draft pick of Vikings in 2021), Nice little developmental TE Prospect with the right size and speed. Not to mention excelled in TWO positions one TE and also as the Punter. He averaged 42.4 yards NET per punt in his college career. With a One overview of him in the draft “Gangly and ungainly, Davidson is an enigma as a one-year wonder with mega production seemingly coming from nowhere. He's a towering figure with slender body composition, offering a desired combination of speed and athleticism to work all three levels of the field with a natural advantage in the catch-radius department. While he has the tools to become a better route runner, he is in the developmental stage currently. The biggest concern is his lack of lower-body mass and lack of functional strength to offer up at least decent wall-off potential as an H-tight end or big slot. His potential as a pass catcher and his roster value as a backup punter could play into his chance of making the back-end of a roster or a practice squad.” Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, right now with no contract extensions being done in the league and no tags used. I don’t know if it is smart to go buy a WR in UFA, I think I would rather do that in the OL and address WR in the Draft. But I think we do need a true outside WR2. So those are some I will address here that I do like. WR DJ Chark, 26 years old – Has a lower catch rate (would rather target those WRs in the 70s) at 57.7% last year which is the second best he has posted in his career. But he is that side and speed outside WR. Posted a QB rating when targeted 101.6. So both those numbers in Det are in line with his Pro Bowl year in Jacksonville. I just don’t know if I want to drop 10M when I have the similar WR already on the roster in Gabe Davis at 1M. Michael Thomas, 30 years old. Here is an interesting one. Former elite NO1 WR for the Saints. But hasn’t really been healthy since the 2019 season. So this year would be 4 years removed from his Stud WR1 years. However his 2022 numbers he did post in the 3 games he played were right there in line with this WR1 years. I think I could be talked into this signing in a heart beat if it was able to be in the cards. The 3 years of Injuries do scare me, but that might make it something that is doable. To get a WR next to Diggs that gives a QB Rating of 134 when targeted high catch rate WR. He will hit the market on the void year and I don’t think Saints re-sign as he doesn’t fit their timeline and they are in cap hell anyway. JuJu Smith-Schuster, 26 years old – Was very productive as the second fiddle in KC with 78 catches 933 yards. Has a 77.2% catch rate and a QB Rating of 102.5 when targeted. He is a bit of a rat but we do need some attitude on the team I think. Likely will sign a 9 to 12M AAV contract so the numbers would fit there. Got others like Jakobi Meyers Allen Lazad Greg Dortch Darius Slayton Marvin Jones TE I will give you a list of what could likely fit money wise, however Scheme just no telling, Knox isn’t going anywhere and I shows that I think Morris will be more productive if actually used. So I don’t think we will be in the market of buying a TE. But here they are Evan Engram, 28 Dalton Schultz, 27 Robert Tonyan Jr., 29 Hayden Hurst, 29 Irv Smith, 24 – this one is interesting to me, there is some talent there, very athletic and highly touted in college. Will hit UFA as MIN moved on trading for Hockenson. Does have a over 70% catch rate coming off worst rating when targeted year at 88.0 but was 107.7 as a rookie and 14.4 the year after. Probably can be had for about 8M AAV Notable Draft Picks WR 1st round Jordan Addison, 6’0 175 USC Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 6’1, 200 Ohio State Quentin Johnston, 6-4, 215, TCU Kayshon Boutte, 6’0 205, LSU Josh Downs, 5’10 175 – NC – probably doesn’t fit the physical profile I am looking for in first round for Bills Jalin Hyatt 6’0, 185, Tenn 2nd Round Rashee Rice, 6’2, 206 SMU – if he times in sub 4.5 like I think he will put him in the late 1st and my No One TGT – Think DK Metcalf initially as a Rookie, and with proper development in route and zone nuances, he will make a team very happy. Parker Washington, 5’10, 207, PSU Cedric Tillman, 6’2, 215, Tenn TE 1st round Michael Mayer, 6’5”, 251, ND 2nd Round Luke Musgrave, 6’6” 254, Oregon ST Dalton Kincaid, 6’4” 242, Utah Sam Laporta, 6’4” 249, Iowa What I would do: I would Let all UFA walk. I can get that similar play cheaper in the draft and post draft when you are filling the team with role players. No reason to sign them now. I will not touch any of the contracts that are currently on the team right now, meaning no extension for Davis. I also do not think I want to go into UFA and pay for a WR either, that isn’t the model I want to do, unless there is a possibility to say get a Michael Thomas on a cheap prove it deal to show the league he is finally healthy. Make it a two year deal with a bigger second year that has guarantees that trigger based on his performance in 2023. Right now I am leaning toward double dipping in the draft at WR. 2 within the first 4 rounds, I don’t know who I would target in the later rounds yet as I have not gotten that far along in my draft prep. But I have a huge Target on Rashee Rice, and if he runs sub 4.5 I have no issue taking him with our first round pick either. I would look at a TE later in the draft probably as well, but I don’t have any names to give you yet. By going into the draft and getting the WR/TE the depth chart would look like this post draft. 1. Stefon Diggs 2. Gabe Davis (rookie contract) 3. Khalil Shakir (rookie Contract) 4. Rashee Rice (Rookie contract) 5. Isaiah McKenzie / 2nd Rookie Drafted 6. Then the battle for the 6th WR between (Johnson, Patmon, Coulter) And at TE I am looking like (which is fine for me, because we don’t use 2TE a lot 1. Dawson Knox 2. Quintin Morris (Rookie Deal) 3. Zach Davison (futures deal) Past Writeups: State of the Franchise (23 Jan) Offensive Line (23 Jan)

WR/TE group is up next, Will try and get it posted today

Love it. This is why I love it here. The insight that gets posted in threads. Thank you for this contribution brother.

Hate it. One Morse Money savings is wrong unless Chris is allowing the guarantee trigger to happen then releasing him (DUMB). then you go and use that money savings to continue to sign patch work OL and DEFENSE YET AGAIN. Who was there QB again? This 💯 ☝️ It is because of these things Chris does on why he blocked me. Hates being called out on crap ideas.

I could also see it that way two. Buy two draft two.

Well whenever out playoffs is all that matters to me. They will be in them every year for the foreseeable future IMO.

He has been dealing with it a lot longer than this year.

Yep. Otherwise you don’t have late round picks turning into All-Pros. The NFL draft is the easiest to find talent all during it. Very unlike NBA, NHL Etc. now QBs absolutely you need to likely be earlier in draft to get a top one. We have that top one. The rest of the players can be found all through the draft. look at Milano Taron Johnson Benford Hamlin Arguably the best WR in the League was a pick in the 20s Jefferson. and One position group of you know what you are looking for to find top end players in every round is OL.

I can agree to all this. The issue like you said is the OL and Weapons. Those top position groups do need talent. I am fine with how the defense played. problem is in todays NFL no matter how good your defense is defense is still a matchup game and can easily get exposed. The issue is we don’t have a complete offense to create those same matchup problems going the other way.

This is a draft fallacy. You can always find players as long as you know what you need and what you are looking for. Example you might not find a OT that is fully polished in all aspects of the game. But what if your priority (it should be protecting Allen) so who cares if your OT isn’t the best Run Blocker but is a high performing prospect in Low Pressure Rates low Sack rates and low penalties. You now have an OT to build around.

Well then that is good. I hope his specialist and Drs are the ones that said that. I definitely don’t want a Stafford situation with that arm next year.

I can fit Edmunds in. Even with the OL buying. And then I am in the business like the chiefs moving off expenditures for cheaper rookie deal. say for example we hit a home run at Safety in the 3rd round Hyde’s 10M is replaced with a rookie deal next year. what this team has showed me is they can find these position groups in the draft. DBs Safeties LBers Depth WRs later what they have not been able to find in the draft OL WRs TOP END DEs so that being said that is what I am buying the OL and WR2 this year. And going into the draft for the depth and defense (later in draft) my mindset is this has to be the year the offense is dedicated too. Both in UFA and Early Draft. Time for McD to just get some role players for the easiest and most player friendly secondary scheme in the NFL. I’m be might think. But came back and also made it a point to say no concerns going forward. As much as I do like him I looked to replace him this offseason. He can absolutely stay though and only replace OG and RT this offseason as long as you are drafting another OG and C in the top 4 rounds.

So far I did the OL state Of position group. I am not bringing any of the UFAs back in that group.

I thought about McGlinchy as well. He is easily in the double digits in AAV. But definitely something to look into same with Powers. To be honest Powers is probably the better OG to go after over Risner now that I think about it because he is used to pass blocking for a Running QB. he is probably a 13M AAV OG I don’t like the Teller move though. Doesn’t fit with what I looked for in terms of pass pro. Hell of a Run Blocker though. That is why I think we can grab their center if we really wanted too. there is a chance with this position group to have your starters for this year and in the future locked in before the draft. Then you can focus on the eventual Dawkins and Bates replacements in the draft. Keeping your top assets for weapons. In theory (WR/TE will be my next grouping by the way that I write) you could buy there and draft OL. the theme people will get here is this offseason is all about premier Offensive talent and filling the defense with role players. A complete reversal of what the McD and Beane era have done.

Don’t forget to check out the OL one that was the first position group I started with.

SO glad we are not building a dome so our top elite QB gets to play in ***** weather in the playoffs

Hey you have 2 on this list that I absolutely want the Bills to buy. Risner and Taylor.

I would be happy on that. Buy a Low Penalty Low pressure rate starter. go in the Draft for the other (i am fine with that too) I almost wrote it that way to be honest because That is probably more in line with what the Bills would do and have shown over the years. But I decided to go all out on the First post to show the Cap is not going to stop us from doing any moves. My Key is on the OL in UFA I am looking only for these three things. Low Pressure Rate Low Penalty Rate Low Sack Rate. If I can meet those I will accept flaws in run blocking and other things because well 1 we dont run, and two if I am trying to buy a complete OL, I am paying an arm and a leg if the player doesnt come with flaws Like Orlando Brown or Boseman or Seumalo I would LOVE to do that, but I know the Bills never will do that so I dont want to take hours to write something that the Bills would never come close to doing

It is. I think there is a logical cap way to get out from all of them by 2024. Morse this year as I laid out Dawkins Next along with Bates (there is an out). Key to get out from Dawkins and Bates is hitting on a LT prospect and LG/RG prospect in this upcoming draft. Both are relatively thin in Rounds 1 and 2 this year, but good solid prospects in rounds 3-5 The OL strength in this draft from my early grading is rounds 3-5 that is where the value is.

And then to took another hard stop in the game as well. I think you will see a surgery on him. get it done early like in the next month and be ready to go come Summer

I think we will see a surgery on Allen here in the next coming month. No inside info there just a gut feeling Maybe, but they have mad moves, not always the right ones. But that is the fun part of the offseason playing the role of what moves you think they will make Perfect example I called going to buy pass rush last year. I didnt think Von was in the cards but did call for a proven passrusher. I think fans are pretty plugged into this team Beane even mentioned something about it last year at the CB spot.

WARNING - these do get a little long sometimes. OK here we are the first position group offseason primer. I think I am going to start with the OL. The issue is with the OL most of the time it performs and doesn’t perform as a single cell organism. That is how you want your OL to play as a single unit so it gets hard looking at individual players absent the group as a whole but I will work it. The way I structure these as those that have not read them before I will talk Financials, Pending Bills UFAs, on contract players, Notable UFAs (don’t spend much time here as with no idea with Tags and re-signings, but will mention some notables), Some notable draft picks from my early draft work, And then what I would do is I was the Bills. I then add the past writeups to the end of the post via links. The standard disclaimer: I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information. I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats. Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future. So here we go … Financials: Contracted players: 39 with a cap hit of $230.498M Cap Space (top 51): -5.464M Offensive Line – 5 players on contact (Spotrac shows 6 however that is because they are accounting for Saffolds void year as well he isn’t on the team) taking up 15.59% of CAP, 22rd highest in the NFL. Interesting here, with only 5 players on Contract we are taking up 15.59% of the cap, so this will have to be addressed and changes need to be made, we will bring at least 5 players in, most likely closer to 7 to 9 to fill out the 90. Good thing is there is some flexibility financially in the group that I will get to as well so you can improve the group most likely with the money that you can gain from inside the group if this is done right. Also the players that all played well under Bobby Johnson (Dawkins, Morse (not as much), Bates and Brown all regressed with Kromer as coach. That has to be looked at and that is a lot of regression on the OL group and with two of them that have been solid players in the past for a long time, that to me is something significant to evaluate. I am not sure if there are better OL coaches out there, but this is something that needs to be evaluated as part of this position group as well. RFA None UFA David Quessenberry – 32 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.75M – Not too much to say here, was signed to provide depth was paid correctly for what he was intended to do. No reason to beat around the bush here, old, unathletic probably can move one. At the same time I could see him back in the similar role, league min contract depth player. Can play both OG and OT so this is what you should look for in cheap depth players. I think I would move on from David initially as there will be 10 others like him that you can sign post draft as the rest of you team is filled out. Justin Murray – 29 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.035M, See above, JAG depth option and can be addressed post draft letting him walk. Roger Saffold – 34 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 6.25M, Projected Market Value 5.4M – Here comes likely he first one some might want to debate. Me it is easy he isn’t a Bills moving forward. He was one of the worst OGs in the league. Issue with him here is also there could be some direct pull down on the performance of Morse and Dawkins as well here. I don’t think this is a Kromer thing because his same issues we saw are the same issues Tenn saw as well and why they moved on from him. Which is what I think we do as well. Greg Van Roten – 33 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.27M – See Quessenberry and Murray. JAG are we seeing a trend here with the Bills OL. A lot of JAGs employed to protect your franchise QB and to open holes in the running game. One good thing here is can play both OGs and C (so cant Bates, will get more on that later) again like really anyone on this list so far this is the type of player you can find after the draft. Ike Boettger – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.187M – This is actually one that I finally got to in the UFA list I can make a case for. Was a very solid LG for us last year before the injury. I do not think he is a starter, but still needs time to recover from the achilles (See Kyle Williams) I probably would toss a 1 year deal around the same number he was at this year. Bobby Hart – 28 years old, Cap Hit in 2022 – 1.185M – this is a funny one to me. He carved a nice role out for himself as the 6th OL on the field when going heavy. Also, I think he found where he should be playing in the Inside spot. The problem is that is really all he can play at serviceable level is OG. I cannot pay a strict OG BU. Needs to have position versatility to have a BU role in the NFL. But if I can keep him at the 1.1M number I probably do bring him into camp on that number. On Contract Dion Dawkins age 29, 6.54% of cap, 14.824M cap hit (1.958M in savings, 9.81M in savings post June 1st) – Here is my fist hard one. What to do about Dawkins. He regressed this year and at times it could be argued that he was the worst OL on the field. My concern is what is causing the regression, was it a down year? Was it the Scheme? Was it the Slug net to him at OG? Was it the coach? There are too many questions here that I don’t really have answers for. He did have 8 penalties this year which is right about up there with his yearly average. Here is where I would make a change. Right now with the way his contract is set up you can move on from him in 2024 with little a nice savings IF they do not touch his contract. However at 8.855M base there is a way to save 5M here with the simple restructure and prorating out the bonus for the next 4 years (2 active contract years, 2 Void Years). I just Don’t think this is the right player to try and get cap space on because of the questions above on what is causing this years regression. I hate kicking the can down on players that 1. Are Hurt often, 2. Coming off a regression year and 3. Anyone over 30 not playing QB). Dawkins is clearly in Bullet 2. I could overlook that if he was the best player on the line, which he wasn’t that was Morse. Spencer Brown age 25, 0.58% of cap, 1.31M cap hit (880K in savings) – Rookie Deal with less than 1M in savings. I don’t do anything here with him he had the same penalty count as a rookie and is still stiff and limited athletically in Pass Pro, though he is an actual decent run blocker even at the second level (which points to enough of an athlete) I am not sure I think this could be a Kromer regression. He wasn’t the worst on the OL but then again never took the step he was primed to take. That said I am not throwing the baby out with the bathwater here. Best case scenario is he would be my Swing OT next year as I go and buy a Legit OT. Tommy Doyle, age 24, 0.45% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (861K savings) – This one is funny. I think he is fine as depth and the contract is right. I think the OL might be better with Doyle stepping in instead of Quessenberry but then we will never know because of his IR. Savings is under 1M too so not much there, UNLESS here is the Key Spencer Brown is your Swing OT. Then Doyle could be cut and save that almost 900K. Ryan Bates, age 26, 2.15% against cap, 4.875M cap hit (No Savings) – The out is after this year. I think Bates is another that suffered this year with Kromer. But at the end of the day I also think he is better at LG than RG. I would slide him over next to Dawkins next year, however there could be an argument here too that he is better as the swing interior (which can be done contact wise) if one of your starters is on a Rookie Deal. I don’t think they will be able to go buy 3 new starters on the OL in UFA. I think you Buy the OT and One OG. Then go into draft for rookies. Spend a lot of time on the OL this offseason in the draft and freaking HIT ON THEM. 4.875M is not a bad contract for a good solid OL that can start if need be and can play all 5 positions on the OL. I would Pay 5M to my 6th OL if they can play all 5 positions. Mitch Morse, age 31, 4.98% against cap, 11.3M cap hit (6.3M, 8.8M post June 1) – Last but not least the best OL the Bills had this year in Mitch Morse. He was a Solid Pivot, regressed in pass pro this year and had another Concussion. My issue with Morse is I have been screaming to plan for life after Morse now for a couple years, instead they tore up his old contract and signed a new one. (Maybe that is something they can do with Dawkins instead of kicking the can). His contract does offer some juice to squeeze on a simple structure probably about 3M in space. But the Bigger savings would come from the release. Which I do not think they will do. It would be a lot easier to do it IF they had a young center on Roster already (could that be the Bates Slide in role). He also has a trigger on 3/19 that fully guarantees 1.36M of his contract. Not a BIG issue if nothing is done before that trigger it would just lower the pre Jun 1 savings to 5M and post June 1 savings to 7.5M Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, right now with no contract extensions being done in the league and no tags used. So some that I list here may not even make it. But I will put my top 3 to 5 and then come ideas on them. OT Orlando Brown Jr – Yeah the top in the class and no reason to talk about him cannot afford and will not hit the market. I put him here to show you that while there might be better players I am tying to target players that would fit, improve within the financials. Obviously it is easy saying go sign the top guy. But that isn’t the mental challenge I want while writing these things. Jawaan Taylor, 25 years old. This is my top target, underrated in this class because of his run blocking ability. However, we do not run so that is not my concern at this point. Likely can get locked up long term for about 7M a year. So why do I want him… His pass blocking. He posted a 5.2% pressure rate which is very good, and still has ceiling in his play. Fits the Mold of Physical Specimens the Bills seem to target at 6-5 330 lbs. Mike McGlinchey, 29 years old – This is probably the top, most complete RT in the class. I would expect this contract to be around the 12.5M to 14M a year if they move on in San Fran, which probably prices us out here. Then some better older guys like George Fant, 30, Billy Turner, 31, OG Isaac Seumalo, 29 years – This is probably your top OG, and likely going to get 14M a year going forward that prices us out. However I do have some that I will talk. Dalton Risner, 27 years old – Here is about a 9M dollar a year OG. Gave up 3 sacks, 1 penalty in over 1000 snaps in Denver. Plays Both OG spots just as effectively so you can move Bates to LG and Risner your RG. This would be my top target in the OL Group. C Ethan Pocic, 27 years old – Massive tight cap space in CLE so likely hits the market. He is the pivot on one of the better OLs in the league. In 2022 played 800 snaps, let up 1 sack and 2 penalties. Probably around 8M max to land him with a bigger fish in Bozeman and Bradberry out there Notable Draft Picks OT 1st round Broderick Jones, 6’4”,315, Georgia Dewand Jones, 6’8, 360, Ohio State 2nd Round Blake Freeland, 6’8” 305, BYU Anton Harrison, 6’5” 309, OK Jaelyn Duncan, 6’5” 320, Maryland OG / C 1st round O’Cyrus Torence, 6’5”,335, Florida (OG) Dewand Jones, 6’8, 360, Ohio State 2nd Round Andrew Vorhees, 6’6” 320, USC (OG) John Michael Schmitz, 6’4” 320, Minnesota (C) (I hate double first names, almost as much as hyphen last names) Luke Wypler, 6’3” 300 Ohio State (C) Sedrick Van Pran 6’3” 310, Georgia (C) What I would do: I would Let all UFA walk. I can get that similar play cheaper in the draft and post draft when you are filling the team with role players. No reason to sign them now. I would Cut Morse Saves 6.3M I would not touch Dawkins Contract. Instead I am getting the rest of the money for what I am about to do elsewhere. I Sign Ethan Pocic, Jawaan Taylor and Dalton Risner. Now before you say we cannot fit all that in the cap, absolutely we can absolutely fit it all with proper structure. Just like we had Vons Cap at 5M this year. And it will be about time we INVESTED in the OL. That then allows the flexibility in the draft to get more young cheap Rookie Contracts on the team. And can use premier picks for Weapons. It would make the OL Look like this LT – Dawkins LG – Bates C – Pocic (call it 8M AAV) (Probably around a 3-4M 2023 cap hit) RG – Risner (call it 10M AAV) Likely around a 5M cap hit in 2023) RT – Taylor (Lets call this 10M max, I think it will be closer to 7) so you are at around a 5M hit in 2023) Swing OT – Brown and Doyle So that would need to be around 15M in space to do this got 6 coming from Morse. Need another 9. There is the easy bank of Allen. So the cap layout is more than do able to buy what SHOULD be projected a very good OL and fixes the NO 1 problem with the team. All Before going into the draft. PAST WRITEUPS State of the Franchise

Yeah I do think that played a part. They did look emotionally drained. But to be Honest Saffold everything we saw yesterday was there ALL Season just wasnt exploited in a way the Bengals worked us.

Absolutely will. Yeah they are alot of work. Have been doing them a couple years running now, it gets me in the offseason mindset. By all means if you want to still do them as well everyone would have no issue reading a couple views. I might be able to get one out later today or tomorrow. Trying to figure our where to start. I am thinking OL will be the first one I do I think it is Kromer negatively affected both Brown and Dawkins to be honest. Even Bates and Morse "regressed" and what was the real change, losing the OC (might have some in it but doubtful) changing out the OL Coach, hmmm this could very well be the issue. I dont know it really has never been really good and it finally came to a head IMO