Mojo44
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Posts posted by Mojo44
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21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
I'm definitely meh on the concept of QB wins as a reliable indicator of individual performance. There are too many variables that contribute to a game's outcome that are non-quarterback related.
If you look at win% all time of quarterbacks, the list isn't a convincing argument as opposed to a stat like all time ANY/A leaders which is as pure a QB metric as there is imo...to OP's point, gross yardage (which isn't all that great either) is still a better indicator of QB performance over a given period of time than wins. BuffaloHokie13's rating system is probably the best metric in my mind followed closely by ANY/A. Wins and passing yards kind of fall by the wayside when you've got more sophisticated methods of evaluating the position in isolation.
I agree to a point. Wins is not the only “metric” that is significant in quarterback. However, in my opinion, it’s way ahead of whatever is in second place. To me, Taylor is the perfect example of this. He had nice metrics but he could not win games in situations when it was on his back to do so. You don’t get to the Super Bowl by leading the league in completion percentage, Touchdown passes or arm strength. You get there by winning games. If the bills had even a decent quarterback last season, particularly during those last five games, they end up with ten or more wins. I really think it bears repeating here, for the last five games of the 2017 season Taylor was in capable of leading the team to even one touchdown! Despite his “metrics” he was crap.
By far, in team sports, the quarterback position is the most important in terms of winning games. In the past are used to think a distant second was a starting pitcher in baseball never finishes games and a distant third was a point guard in basketball. However, I’ve come to the conclusion that the closest second, which is still distant, is the goalie in hockey.
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Lost all credibility for me once they said AJ is a downgrade from Taylor. Give me a break!
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20 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Wins don't really correlate to QB performance is the problem.
There is most definitely a correlation. People always with. Two Tyrod taylor’s “great stats“ but the truth is, he was a crappy quarterback because he could not win games when it was up to him to do so. What was it, during the last five games of that awesome push for the playoffs he couldn’t leave the team to one single touchdown in the fourth quarter. We made the playoffs because of our defense in those games.
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If this scenario plays out, which I think is extremely unlikely, then the bills must think that AJ is their franchise guy. There could be no other Explanation. I would love a shot at Anthony Miller. I did watch Memphis play several times and got to see them both. Memphis happens to be my graduate school alma mater.
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It took long enough but I am finally at peace with this draft season and, in particular, the whole quarterback thing. Whether they trade up or not, whether they get one of the “top four” I will sit back and enjoy the ride.
My personal favorite is Darnold. There is something about him, when all is said and done, that makes me see a “franchise quarterback”. However, even if they get Mayfield, who I like a lot less than many other posters here, I will be happy. On the other hand, I’m not so sure how I would feel if they end up with either Jackson or Rudolf. But I suppose I would just get used to it and go with that flow, too.
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20 hours ago, jr1 said:
Mayfield's completion percentage was 8 points higher than Rosen's this season
A lot of “hand off” passes in a system geared towards a high completion percentage.Not saying Mayfield isn’t a good prospect, but that statistic,in my opinion, is quite misleading.I would absolutely take Rosen over Mayfield.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think he was accurate in college. His college film is filled with horrible inaccuracy. To me he is a classic case of getting the accuracy badge because he doesn't have a big arm. It is the classic cliche used to describe QBs with less than ideal arm strength "smart and accurate." My personal view on his college tape was the arm strength wasn't quite as bad as reported and the accuracy was nowhere near as good as reported. He played in a gimmicky college offense and you had talking head draft media calling him "pro-ready". I mean I know it is a thing on here at the moment to say nobody on this forum knows as much as guys who do this working for the networks but the draft media were way off base on Nathan Peterman. His college tape was horrible from the perspective of a pro-evaluation. All the "smart, accurate and pro-ready" stuff was just cliched rubbish from people who hadn't put the work in. He was borderline undraftable. The way he played in the league was absolutely zero surprise to me.
60.1% completion percentage in college. Make what you will of it.
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For a long time Cosell has been, by far, my favorite player evaluator. This is particularly the case with evaluating quarterbacks. What he did say about Rosen Does not write anything down in stone for me.But it makes me like Rosen even more and I would be very happy if the bills got him.
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The OP put out a real good post and I thank him for that. It makes it even easier for me to not even care which of the, Hopefully, top for quarterbacks we get. At least we got a shot at a good one.
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59 minutes ago, MTBill said:
I honestly think Beane is playing it by ear somewhat - and planning on something in 4-10.
If there is a "cream of the crop" heads above the rest QB in their book, they are likely gone by #3 and I don't see the GIants trading down to 12. However, I suspect the grading is much more bunched up. If the Giants want a QB, they are for sure not trading down - so then we can guess 3 are gone by #4. Then the question is - will Cleveland want to drop to 12 and lose out on the best Non-QB on their board? Probably not. So now you are looking at #5. I really think the Broncos are planning on keeping their Pick either for a top QB prospect or to improve the roster.
I really think it comes down not to how much it would take, but that these teams really have to solidify their own teams. It isn't like some powerhouse is sitting at the top of the draft with no real needs who doesn't mind trading back 5-10 spots. Everyone needs a star for their team. I think our targets for a trade are most likely San Francisco & Oakland to get in front of Miami - and to protect ourselves from someone else trying to pass both us AND Miami. I just hope it won't cost the farm getting there.
Things I highly suspect with the Giants - I bet they go after Dez and cut ties with OBJ via trade. Dez will give them a great deal because he gets to stay in the NFCE and stick it to the Cowboys, and the Giants will cut ties with OBJ who carries a lot of baggage. I'm sure this affects how they draft etc.
Agreed. I think this is a great crop of "decent" QBs, not necessarily franchise QBs. I could totally be wrong on this, but I do not see a class of QBs like 1983 ever again - 3 HOF QBs in one draft. Just not very likely to be repeated - even in a pass happy league.
EDIT - hehe, your autocorrect busts me up. Drop Pigs....
Yeah, I have no idea where Siri came up with “drop pigs”
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3 hours ago, mjt328 said:
I don't buy all this negative press about the QBs. Some of these GMs are hoping to push some names down the board.
For the last 12+ months, all we've been hearing is how ridiculously deep and talented this QB class is. How it was the best class in years.
Now suddenly, everybody is so "flawed" - their chances of succeeding have plummeted through the floor.
(On a side note, I also find it interesting how flawless of a prospect Carson Wentz has become in hindsight.)
Andrew Luck-type prospects come around every 15-20 years. That is not a valid comparison.
When you compare these guys to other QB prospects from past years, I find it very unlikely (especially considering the need around the NFL) that we don't see 4 quarterbacks in the Top 10 and at least 5 in the first round.
I disagree. The flaws of all of these quarterbacks have clearly been noted for a long time. Also, Andrew luck is the ideal benchmark to compare the current crop too. None of them are as a sure thing as he was. This is not 1983. Actually, probably far from it. The odds are that none of these quarterbacks will pan out. But, the bills need one and it’s a calculated risk. I’ll support whatever they do as a fan. However my preference is that they don’t waste drop pigs in trade up on one of these risky prospects.
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53 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:
I know he doesn't play well against the Bills, but generally he is just not that bad of a QB and keep in mind the last time anyone saw him he had his team at 8-5.
I agree, he really isn’t that bad overall and does seem to play poorly against the Bills. I guess I was just surprised to see such a high rating for him because even at his best he’s kind of just “OK”.
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2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:
Whatever he says 2 weeks before the draft is a lie.
Try two hours before the draft!
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Tamnehill a 94? That’s a red flag right there. For McShay, not Darnold.
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4 hours ago, Ifartalot said:
"Is Mahomes a better prospect than what the Bills could possibly get this year ?"
.....like asking if this summer will be nicer than last summer. Only time will tell.
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8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Carolina was Week 2. I remember that because the week before, we opened at home against the Patriots, and EJ had us up 21-20 with about 1 minute left, but the O stalled and gave the ball back to the Pats and our defense couldnt stop Brady from moving the ball 50+ yards in 40 seconds, and the Pats kicked a game winner as time expired. But EJ had a good game for his first ever, and the D let him down.
Ask me how much constantly losing to the Pats has affected me...
I remember that game very well, also. I also remember thinking to myself that, just maybe, we have a quarterback. Oh well
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This is a very good read and Fairchild seems to be very diligent and detailed in his assessments.But it keeps the “what quarterback will the Bills draft” roller coaster going for me. Now I’m starting to like Rudolph again! Amazing!
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20 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Agreed we don't know what will happen.
But we do know what they want to do, insofar as they want to trade up for somebody. Who that is there's no way to know. They've made it obvious with the moves they've made since Beane arrived that it's one of them, though.
There are certainly strong indications that there ultimate goal is to trade up. However I’m not as convinced as others are that this is their written in stone plan. I am so uncertain as to what they are planning to do that all I can do is sit back, watch, and try to enjoy “The process”. I do believe that they plan to pick a quarterback in the first round. Whether it’s at 12, 22 or a trade up, who knows? As a fan, my plan is to get behind it 100% whatever they do.
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5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
Yes we have holes.
No they don't need to be filled this year. They're building for the long term, and thank God for that.
Thing is, Beane and Co obviously disagree, as they've been making move after move for more than a year showing that they plan to trade up. They might not be able to, but it's very obvious that's their plan.
As for 6 QBs in the top 16, I don't see anyone but you saying it's looking more and more that way. Five or even six in the first round wouldn't surprise me, though. Nearly everyone has five in the 1st as a very reasonable possibility.
The bills may or may not like and be targeting Jackson. The bills may or may not be trading up for a quarterback. What is for certain at this time is ............Nothing is obvious! All bets are on!
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I’m of the opinion that as we go through this tense and crazy pre-draft period we should all be tolerant of threads with overlapping content. However ...........Not this one! It’s not even a good conspiracy theory!
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It’s a lot easier to find good offensivLineman in later rounds. Not so easy to get a good quarterback that way. Trust the process. These changes may even be better for the bills going forward with their new line.e Lineman in later rounds. Not so easy to get a good quarterback that way. Trust the process. These changes may even be better for the bills going forward with their new line.
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At this point it is due diligence and nothing more. Don’t make too much of the fact that they went out to LA for this. Teams do this all the time. No big deal. Don’t get me wrong. It could happen. This visit in no way portends anything for certain.
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No big deal even if it is true. However, I’m not convinced that this is over yet.
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The more things change ..........
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Football Outsiders Draft Guide
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Taylor could not win games. That’s all there is. This is the third time I’ve made this point in various threads. Remember the last five games of the season when the bills made that awesome push to the playoffs. Taylor could not lead this team to even one touchdown in the fourth quarter. In a nutshell that says it all! We know for an absolute fact that Taylor, as an NFL quarterback, was crap. AJ is an unknown who has flashed some good stuff. Ipso facto, you cannot say with any certainty that AJ is a downgrade. And given just how crappy Taylor was, it’s more likely than not that he is an upgrade. Get it?