Mojo44
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Posts posted by Mojo44
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Darnold or Rosen are worth the trade up. Not Mayfield or Allen. BTW I am seeing many mock drafts where three of the top for quarterbacks in the draft go to the AFC East. If the Pats* choose one in the first then it will be four AFC East quarterbacks in the first round. I wonder if that has ever happened before.
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1 minute ago, greeneblitz said:
if they can't get a starting caliber QB through trading up then I think they should try to trade a 1st to get some picks to try again next year and go with what we have, not waste picks on projects
Speaking of trading up, has anyone else seen Chad Reuter’s most recent mock on NFL. com? I would love it because the bills trade up to number five and get Darnold with the Browns taking Allen, the Jets Mayfield and the phins move up to 6 and Rosen. Three new quarterback’s in the AFC East!
To me the only two quarterbacks worth trading up for are Darnold or Rosen. If the bills can’t get that done then just stay with 12 and 22 and let the chips fall where they may. The other two are way too high risk for me.
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1 hour ago, essential said:
Never. You should always have an eye on the future. When you start making decisions to win exclusively in season ahead you look like the Bills did the last 15 years. I agree once you have the QB in place a lot of other mistakes are masked, and since we haven't had one they are more glaring, but you always need to consider the long-term picture.
The 2018 season and “the future” are not mutually exclusive concepts. It’s quite possible to plan for both.
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1 hour ago, Ifartalot said:
Getting a good QB in the draft ?
It's at best, about a 5% success rate and dependent mostly on luck (not Andrew, who may never play again and why Indy may be in play for a QB).
The Colts drafting a quarterback would be earth shattering news. That would mean that they think Luck is a dead duck. Changes everything. However, I haven’t heard one little peep of information along these lines. At this point, I find this to be very unlikely. But, who knows?
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2 hours ago, jahnyc said:
Interesting guy. I do like his competitiveness. Injuries and lack of real mobility worry me a bit more than the other stuff.
His mobility in the pocket is considered the best among the top for quarterbacks. There’s mobility and then there is “mobility”
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I’ll see this for Beane. He is as good as Mueller at playing it close to the vest. I honestly believe nobody, including us posters and all the “experts” have a clue as to what the bills are going to do and who they might be targeting as a quarterback in the first round. For me, the only two quarterbacks worth trading up for are Darnold and Rosen. Allen is number 3.I know I’m in the minority but I just don’t get all the love for Mayfield. To me of the top four he’s the biggest bust risk.
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IMO The OP is overthinking things here. It’s just a “feeling“ like everyone else’s feelings and opinions about this draft. Everybody is talking to everybody! Let’s just see what happens. Because whatever happens, some of us will feel good about it and some of us are going to hate it.
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Yet another drop in the ocean as far as opinions about these quarterbacks are concerned. They just keep coming. And it’s always somebody different! To me that says a lot about all of this.
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I don’t mind the post itself. He’s entitled to his own opinion regardless of how poorly stated. What I don’t like is that it’s a thread starter. You have to do better than that when you start a thread.
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The team will be better simply because whoever starts at quarterback will be much better than the crap we had for the last two years!
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10 or more wins is a good possibility. I expect the team to be better overall. But, more importantly, whoever starts at quarterback will be better than the trash we had for the past two years! Therein lies the difference.
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Only at number 12 and that’s if Rosen is not there.Too many question marks about him, not the least of which is his height To me he is, by far, the most overrated of the top four. Would rather the bills not get him but I’ll support it if they do.
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
OK, where would you like your break?
AJ is arguably likely to be a downgrade from Taylor in several regards. Even given a strong line and great WRs/TE, he was not a prolific passer in his NFL starts.
He's likely better at reading a D, making progressions, and figuring out who the open man should be, but it didn't translate into superior passing yardage when he saw playing time. Of course, AJ doesn't pose a significant threat to move the chains with his legs, and he hasn't proven his durability through a long NFL season.
Don't think so? Argue your point.
I'm not debating the Bills decision to move on from Taylor - he's not a fit for what they want to do, clearly.
But to think AJ isn't a downgrade to a guy who has actually proven he can stand the heat for 3 seasons and win more than half his games, isn't realistic at this point. The best one can hope for is "not proven".
Taylor could not win games. That’s all there is. This is the third time I’ve made this point in various threads. Remember the last five games of the season when the bills made that awesome push to the playoffs. Taylor could not lead this team to even one touchdown in the fourth quarter. In a nutshell that says it all! We know for an absolute fact that Taylor, as an NFL quarterback, was crap. AJ is an unknown who has flashed some good stuff. Ipso facto, you cannot say with any certainty that AJ is a downgrade. And given just how crappy Taylor was, it’s more likely than not that he is an upgrade. Get it?
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21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
I'm definitely meh on the concept of QB wins as a reliable indicator of individual performance. There are too many variables that contribute to a game's outcome that are non-quarterback related.
If you look at win% all time of quarterbacks, the list isn't a convincing argument as opposed to a stat like all time ANY/A leaders which is as pure a QB metric as there is imo...to OP's point, gross yardage (which isn't all that great either) is still a better indicator of QB performance over a given period of time than wins. BuffaloHokie13's rating system is probably the best metric in my mind followed closely by ANY/A. Wins and passing yards kind of fall by the wayside when you've got more sophisticated methods of evaluating the position in isolation.
I agree to a point. Wins is not the only “metric” that is significant in quarterback. However, in my opinion, it’s way ahead of whatever is in second place. To me, Taylor is the perfect example of this. He had nice metrics but he could not win games in situations when it was on his back to do so. You don’t get to the Super Bowl by leading the league in completion percentage, Touchdown passes or arm strength. You get there by winning games. If the bills had even a decent quarterback last season, particularly during those last five games, they end up with ten or more wins. I really think it bears repeating here, for the last five games of the 2017 season Taylor was in capable of leading the team to even one touchdown! Despite his “metrics” he was crap.
By far, in team sports, the quarterback position is the most important in terms of winning games. In the past are used to think a distant second was a starting pitcher in baseball never finishes games and a distant third was a point guard in basketball. However, I’ve come to the conclusion that the closest second, which is still distant, is the goalie in hockey.
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Lost all credibility for me once they said AJ is a downgrade from Taylor. Give me a break!
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20 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Wins don't really correlate to QB performance is the problem.
There is most definitely a correlation. People always with. Two Tyrod taylor’s “great stats“ but the truth is, he was a crappy quarterback because he could not win games when it was up to him to do so. What was it, during the last five games of that awesome push for the playoffs he couldn’t leave the team to one single touchdown in the fourth quarter. We made the playoffs because of our defense in those games.
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If this scenario plays out, which I think is extremely unlikely, then the bills must think that AJ is their franchise guy. There could be no other Explanation. I would love a shot at Anthony Miller. I did watch Memphis play several times and got to see them both. Memphis happens to be my graduate school alma mater.
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It took long enough but I am finally at peace with this draft season and, in particular, the whole quarterback thing. Whether they trade up or not, whether they get one of the “top four” I will sit back and enjoy the ride.
My personal favorite is Darnold. There is something about him, when all is said and done, that makes me see a “franchise quarterback”. However, even if they get Mayfield, who I like a lot less than many other posters here, I will be happy. On the other hand, I’m not so sure how I would feel if they end up with either Jackson or Rudolf. But I suppose I would just get used to it and go with that flow, too.
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20 hours ago, jr1 said:
Mayfield's completion percentage was 8 points higher than Rosen's this season
A lot of “hand off” passes in a system geared towards a high completion percentage.Not saying Mayfield isn’t a good prospect, but that statistic,in my opinion, is quite misleading.I would absolutely take Rosen over Mayfield.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't think he was accurate in college. His college film is filled with horrible inaccuracy. To me he is a classic case of getting the accuracy badge because he doesn't have a big arm. It is the classic cliche used to describe QBs with less than ideal arm strength "smart and accurate." My personal view on his college tape was the arm strength wasn't quite as bad as reported and the accuracy was nowhere near as good as reported. He played in a gimmicky college offense and you had talking head draft media calling him "pro-ready". I mean I know it is a thing on here at the moment to say nobody on this forum knows as much as guys who do this working for the networks but the draft media were way off base on Nathan Peterman. His college tape was horrible from the perspective of a pro-evaluation. All the "smart, accurate and pro-ready" stuff was just cliched rubbish from people who hadn't put the work in. He was borderline undraftable. The way he played in the league was absolutely zero surprise to me.
60.1% completion percentage in college. Make what you will of it.
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For a long time Cosell has been, by far, my favorite player evaluator. This is particularly the case with evaluating quarterbacks. What he did say about Rosen Does not write anything down in stone for me.But it makes me like Rosen even more and I would be very happy if the bills got him.
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The OP put out a real good post and I thank him for that. It makes it even easier for me to not even care which of the, Hopefully, top for quarterbacks we get. At least we got a shot at a good one.
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59 minutes ago, MTBill said:
I honestly think Beane is playing it by ear somewhat - and planning on something in 4-10.
If there is a "cream of the crop" heads above the rest QB in their book, they are likely gone by #3 and I don't see the GIants trading down to 12. However, I suspect the grading is much more bunched up. If the Giants want a QB, they are for sure not trading down - so then we can guess 3 are gone by #4. Then the question is - will Cleveland want to drop to 12 and lose out on the best Non-QB on their board? Probably not. So now you are looking at #5. I really think the Broncos are planning on keeping their Pick either for a top QB prospect or to improve the roster.
I really think it comes down not to how much it would take, but that these teams really have to solidify their own teams. It isn't like some powerhouse is sitting at the top of the draft with no real needs who doesn't mind trading back 5-10 spots. Everyone needs a star for their team. I think our targets for a trade are most likely San Francisco & Oakland to get in front of Miami - and to protect ourselves from someone else trying to pass both us AND Miami. I just hope it won't cost the farm getting there.
Things I highly suspect with the Giants - I bet they go after Dez and cut ties with OBJ via trade. Dez will give them a great deal because he gets to stay in the NFCE and stick it to the Cowboys, and the Giants will cut ties with OBJ who carries a lot of baggage. I'm sure this affects how they draft etc.
Agreed. I think this is a great crop of "decent" QBs, not necessarily franchise QBs. I could totally be wrong on this, but I do not see a class of QBs like 1983 ever again - 3 HOF QBs in one draft. Just not very likely to be repeated - even in a pass happy league.
EDIT - hehe, your autocorrect busts me up. Drop Pigs....
Yeah, I have no idea where Siri came up with “drop pigs”
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3 hours ago, mjt328 said:
I don't buy all this negative press about the QBs. Some of these GMs are hoping to push some names down the board.
For the last 12+ months, all we've been hearing is how ridiculously deep and talented this QB class is. How it was the best class in years.
Now suddenly, everybody is so "flawed" - their chances of succeeding have plummeted through the floor.
(On a side note, I also find it interesting how flawless of a prospect Carson Wentz has become in hindsight.)
Andrew Luck-type prospects come around every 15-20 years. That is not a valid comparison.
When you compare these guys to other QB prospects from past years, I find it very unlikely (especially considering the need around the NFL) that we don't see 4 quarterbacks in the Top 10 and at least 5 in the first round.
I disagree. The flaws of all of these quarterbacks have clearly been noted for a long time. Also, Andrew luck is the ideal benchmark to compare the current crop too. None of them are as a sure thing as he was. This is not 1983. Actually, probably far from it. The odds are that none of these quarterbacks will pan out. But, the bills need one and it’s a calculated risk. I’ll support whatever they do as a fan. However my preference is that they don’t waste drop pigs in trade up on one of these risky prospects.
Would a dark horse team trading up & the Bills didn’t surprise you?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
This would seem to be the correct answer to me.