The Frankish Reich
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Posts posted by The Frankish Reich
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26 minutes ago, Crayola64 said:
good lord. When I caught DR in a lie about him watching Cuties (his claims about it matched a viral post that wasn’t accurate), he kept rambling about what I was defending and what I was promoting or something.Maniac
Interesting.
I engaged in a little gentle ribbing with DR on this, posting an old Onion headline: “Area man appears to know too much about ageof consent laws.”
He seemed to be extremely offended by that ...
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I just don’t see the idea of new short term COVID restrictions and “opening up” longer term as mutually exclusive. If we are going to do the latter without running the risk of a huge spike overwhelming health care facilities, the first step would be to press reset and get the shutdown done right this time. If we could get to where S Korea, Taiwan, and other countries are — hell,
I would even take Canada — with more widely available and faster testing we would be able to reopen more of our economy, particularly schools.
More of the same haphazard policy = prolonging the semi-shutdown agony. -
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct07
Rasmussen’s daily tracking presidential approval poll: Trump -10.
The also report an Approval Index based on the harder “strongly approve” minus “strongly disapprove.” That’s worse for Trump: negative 15.
Rasmussen is typically the most favorable polling operation for Republicans.
Conclusion: the Trump-COVID effect is real, and it’s strongly negative for Trump. Whether it will sustain is a different question. My guess is that it will dissipate but not completely, but given that a lot of people have already voted or will be voting in the next week or so, this is horrible news for Trump.
EDIT: On August 3 Trump was at 50% approval in Rasmussen. And of course
he tweeted about it. So none of this “Rasmussen is rigged against Trump” stuff here.
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I am directing Steve Mnuchin to end all stimulus bill negotiations until after the election.
[hold for stock market tank]
I am proposing 2 stimulus bills that should be passed immediately.
The Art of the Deal.
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On the perils of party weighting and the expected flux in party identification - note that this was from 2008, when the argument was that polls were overweighting Republicans:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/lets-get-few-things-straight-party-id/amp/
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8 hours ago, Hedge said:
The 21 point lead is unreliable - it's based on the part of the sample that was taken after Trump went public with his COVID diagnosis.
But the overall lead is 14 points, and the overall polling looks solid.
The general trend -- that calling COVID concerns a hoax, then getting hospitalized with COVID doesn't poll well -- kind of makes sense, no?
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55 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:
You can't just take exit polls from 4 years ago to in order to get your party ID. Any poll with a D over 35 is junk. Why? Because less and less Americans have been identifying as a D.
Most of these trash polls have a sample of D 37 or 38 and I at around 27-30. Ok. Good work guys.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
Do you see those big numbers in the middle? They're "Independents." They make up their minds about who they're voting for. If it's the Democrat, they then identify themselves as Democrats. If it's a a Republican, they then identify themselves as a Republican. These are not independent variables.
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6 hours ago, Rob's House said:
Did you vote for Romney or McCain?
Romney yes, McCain no.
4 hours ago, Joe in Winslow said:The fool thinks that gives him "right wing" credentials.
No. I'm not "right wing" or any wing.
But you are proving my point that to you anything non-Trump is "lefty."
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6 minutes ago, CarpetCrawler said:
So then he is one of the castaways.
This one?
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42 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said:
What about Nixon?
Nah. There was a little problem with him too.
By the way, long after Watergate there was an attempt to pull a "Russia Hoax" type rehabilitation of Nixon not unlike what we're seeing today with Trump.
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12 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:
That's fine to.
Just show the internals to polls you post.
I look at every single internal of the polls I care to look at.
Any that show Biden up 10 plus nationally is just beyond laughable. I want to see the internals of the one that has him up 12.
Agreed -- it is smart to look at the internals.
But when you do, it's pretty clear that Biden is expanding his lead.
Here's the one I linked to in the last page -- a very good "A" rated poll by fivethirtyeight with really no demonstrated tilt toward either side -- fivethirtyeight says it's "house effect" is +0.1 Dem, which is about as close to neutral as they come.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf
The sampling is right there at Q.53 -
38 % Dem
35 % Rep
21 % Ind
6 % Other/Not sure
This was an unusually large survey: N= 2000. And as I mentioned before, the post-Trump COVID diagnosis numbers showed a very huge move toward Biden (8 point lead before, 16 after). I wouldn't expect that 16 point thing to stick -- these shocks tend to dissipate -- but I see no reason to doubt that this poll's overall Biden +10 margin isn't worthy of belief, particularly given that the trend in other reliable polls is similar.
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I don't know anything about SDS's politics, but I'd be surprised if he's a "lefty." Likewise with most (all?) of the mods.
"Lefty" seems to mean "not voting for Trump" in PPP. I get thrown in with the so-called lefty carpetbaggers who muscled in on an invitation-only Trump rally.
That's where the world is now. If Romney were running against Joe, I'd be voting for Romney. If the ghost of John McCain were running against Joe, I'd be voting for it. If the second coming of Ronald Reagan were running against Joe, I'd be tempted to illegally ballot harvest for him.
And yet I'm a "lefty" here.
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13 hours ago, wAcKy ZeBrA said:
Any thoughts on the gasping for air? He still looks sick.
I'm not that impressed by him looking a bit winded. Really, even under normal, pre-COVID circumstances, do you think he would've been able to climb those stairs without huffing and puffing a bit? It's not like he hits the stairmaster every day ....
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Drugged-up Trump just retweeted or replied to a reporter named Paul Sperry 22 times in one hour.
And he also reversed course on his "no stimulus bill till after the election" thing he just tweeted about a few hours ago.
He's more than a bit unhinged right now, freaking out over terrible poll numbers.
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https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf
Interesting poll. High N, and half conducted
post-debate but pre-Walter Reed and half after Trump’s COVID admission, so we can make some comparisons:
Pre - WR: Biden up by 8
Post: Biden up by 16 (!)
Early returns suggest that dismissing the pandemic fears as a hoax only to then be hospitalized for said hoax is not a winning strategy.
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Michigan poll shows Biden opening up a 9 point lead
More interesting is why: he has a 29 point (!) lead among voters 65+
It’s almost as if the message that old folks have a duty to take their chances with COVID so that the young may exercise their Right to Party isn’t all that popular with the highest risk group ....
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First, thanks to SDS for explaining what he did and why he did it. He doesn’t owe us an explanation, but I appreciate getting one.
For me the key phrase: this is not 4chan for Bills fans.
I realize I became a thorn in DR’s side. Let
me explain why with a quick story.
A few years ago I was sitting at a lunch table with an alumni group from my wife’s fancy college (I married up). Another guy at the table mentioned the Sandy Hook school massacre with the appropriate tone. A 70 year old guy next to me — a prominent donor — chimes in with, “you know that
was all a hoax.” There was an uncomfortable moment. People like me tried to steer the conversation to more polite topics; I assumed my wife didn’t didn’t sign up for a conversation about conspiracy theories. One other guy, also a husband/not alum, had the guts to start questioning 70 year old: what do you mean it’s a hoax? What about those dead children carried out? Response: “Maybe actors.” It went on a few minutes like that, then people made polite excuses to leave and visit other tables, etc. Thank goodness the lunch had been served.
Later on I ran into our confrontational spouse. Actually I sought him out. I had a chance to think about it. And I realized he was right and the rest of us were wrong. I thanked him for confronting our 70 year old conspiracy theorist. Sitting there and nervously laughing and changing the subject was silence in the face of a vile “theory.”
And so when I came to PPP I posted about polls, then wandered into the “Q Analysis”
swamp to see what this was all about. I asked simple questions. I researched what DR’s answers meant. I discovered that he was all in; unlike others here, he didn’t suggest that maybe there’s a kernel of
truth amidst a cornfield of wild overinterpretation. No. He repeated memes and messages that are consistent only with what I’d call the Q libel — there is an evil cabal involved in child trafficking and killing; certain well known politicians and celebrities are involved; there’s more than a hint of anti-Semitic conspiracy; there’s a definite suggestion that in a war against satanic child sacrificer, the ends justify the means (hence the weird comment about the LA Sheriff’s Office history and badge in response to expressions of sympathy and outrage when two officers were shot). There’s an unhinged reaction to criticism of Trump — one that is consistent with a messianic view of him that comes from the hard Q core.
I’d ask him exactly what he believes. At first he’d dodge (here’s a link to some wiki leak), then later he’d lash out (why would I answer an uncivil moron like you). But never did he answer the questions, things that went to core Q principles like: “was Donald Trump recruited by powers of good to bring down politicians like Hillary Clinton because she was involved with child trafficking?” No
answer. Ever. Just comments dripping with implication.
And no, I didn’t give up. I didn’t stop
pressing him to explain his comments,
many of which make no sense unless they are coming from the backdrop of an understanding that the whole QAnon mega conspiracy is true. I wasn’t going to make the mistake I made at that fancy luncheon again. If it got uncomfortable for him, that’s because it should be uncomfortable to spout this type of crap even in the impolite society of a fan forum.
That’s all. I am returning to football talk with the occasional talk about polls here.
Unless another Sandy Hook denier or Q conspiracists forces me to do otherwise ...-
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I hate to have to say it, but ... thank you, TB12 for packing up and taking your roidhead friend with you.
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1 minute ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:
Good to see Stidham blows ...
I dunno. An Edelman drop/deflection, a desperation bomb pick-off. He sure as hell looks better than Hoyer.
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1 minute ago, PetermansRedemption said:
Probably would have been today if Cam was playing. Belichick’s game plan was masterful. It just wasn’t executed at all by Hoyer and then Edelman had that uncharacteristic drop that just happened to go the other way for 6.
You can make a case that Mahomes has never been exactly the same since the knee injury.
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3 minutes ago, westside2 said:
Does Tracy Wolfson look like an elf?
A good kind of elf. A milfy elf. A melf.
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HA HA EDELMAN!!!
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Allen playing like 2018 Mahomes.
Mahomes playing like 2018 Allen.-
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Just now, The Frankish Reich said:
Not sucking bad enough yet.
It's coming. Right now.
Or maybe not just yet. Stidham's mere presence
Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting
in Politics, Polls, and Pundits
Posted
Biden has a ton of cash on hand and they’re now spending it in long shots like Texas. There’s just nowhere else to spend it all before the election. It’ll be interesting to see if this draws Republican/Trump money back into the race there. I don’t expect Biden to win Texas, but this is a sign of rough roads ahead for the Republicans as Texas continues to change demographically with the Yankee influx.