jeffismagic
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Posts posted by jeffismagic
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So you conveniently look back and say that we should have taken the 2 guys that ended up best? We should have taken Brady in 2000 too (but you already knew that by the 2003 season).
The point of my post was to identify sure fire guys. And there has been only Andrew Luck. Some might add RG3, Winston(although he was not treated as sure fire by talking heads), and Mariotta (who also was questioned by pundits).
So let's focus on the original point. There are very few sure fire guys and if you want one you need the 1st pick or 2nd pick in the draft.
Indeed I will...as well as looking forward to your analysis.
Yes, Rosen will be a fun scouting journey! The Rosen One..
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First off, the Bills drafted QBs in 2016 and 2017- one of which was said to have more NFL attributes than all of the top guys selected...Second, there is no such thing as a sure fire guy, but rather prospect that show more consistent traits for success...but it's all an educated guess.
Well, many on this board told me that QB's with no flaws would be passing their way into our hearts in 2018. Stay tuned.
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You used the benefit of hindsight and posted only guys that have good reputations today. No one believes that your top 2 QBs in 2016 were Wentz and Dak. In 2014 you liked the 4th and 5th guys picked but not the top 3? Hmmm....
It's not waiting for sure fire prospects. Say what you want about Kiper but he has 4 guys now ahead of Trubisky who went 2. Those guys, on paper, are less flawed in his opinion. You can get better value in a deeper class.
He certainly is all in on Mahomes. I expect Mahomes to do well.
You only have to believe my board from 2017. My 2016 draft board was not shared here and who cares. Kiper sucks.
oh, Jeff...what are we to do with you?
While you seem like a cool dude and I enjoy the passion you put on display night in and night out, I know that some people just like hearing themselves talk, and I'm starting to wonder if perhaps you just get more enjoyment out of being combative for combative sake.
No, I am tired of hearing stupid statements like let's wait for a sure fire guy or a QB with no flaws. It gets me angry because I hate people defending the Bills inaction and inability to fly right.
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People said don't draft Trubisky, Mahomes or Watson because they were flawed prospects. Flawed prospects aren't the best investment of a top 10 pick.
Did you also like Brady in the 2000 draft? I've never seen someone with such an incredible hit ratio. All of the QBs that you liked from the last 5 years have turned into good players. That's pretty impressive.
A prospect that is not flawed is a sure fire franchise guy. And I just spelled out why waiting for one is idiotic.
And no, I didn't just post players I liked. Nice spin. Only the last 2 drafts. I never looked that closely at the 2014 or 2015 draft class. We already had EJ in 2014 so I knew we wouldn't take one and in 2015 the top guys were out of reach and Lynch was a "whatever" prospect.
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I've yet to see anyone say we should wait for a sure-fire franchise guy. Strawman .
Have you been on this board? People said don't draft Trubisky or Mahomes or Watson because we need to wait for a sure fire guy.
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It is folly to wait for a "sure fire" franchise QB. Last 5 years
2012 Andrew Luck. You needed the 1st overall pick
2013 No sure fire guys or even very good QB prospects
2014 A few good to very good prospects. Derek Carr and Jimmy G were well worth taking.
2015 No sure fire franchise guys. 2 guys were close in Winston and Mariotta and went 1st and 2nd overall.
2016 No sure fire franchise guys. 1 very good prospect in Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott was a good prospect late in the draft.
2017 No sure franchise guy. From my QB board 1 very good prospect in Pat Mahomes, 1 good prospect in Mitch Trubisky and 1 guy worth grabbing later in Josh Dobbs. Some may add Deshaun Watson as a guy they would take as well.
So if our strategy is to wait for a sure fire franchise guy this franchise will be heading towards 3 decades without even a VERY GOOD QB that can win the team games. What a shame.
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Because McDermott wanted his own guy. That's the truth.
Yes, I know. But you are one of the few people who seem to grasp this. Pegulas didn't decide to fire Whaley and the scouts. Sean was hired and demanded total power.
But with great power comes great responsibility. Rex and Rob Ryan were considered laughing jokes for finishing .500. So Sean and his Beane Buddy MUST hit 9 wins.
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I'm really surprised by the negativity about the Bills. Here's why:
The Bills had, in my opinion, some of the worst coaching in the NFL for the past two seasons. I mean, really. The penalties two years ago, the horrible defense giving up 200 yard rushing games last season, the ugly game plans, or lack of game plays. I mean, it was horrible. Still, the Bills were essentially a .500 teams. NOBODY is saying that the Bills had a horrible roster and the only thing that saved the season was the brilliant coaching job.
I know that changing coaches and changing to new systems and all of that takes some getting used to, often a full season. But if McDermott can be a quality head coach, even his first season can be better than the job Rex was doing.
The question is whether McDermott can do it. I have no idea whether he can. However, I do know that even an average coaching job from McDermott will me much better than what we saw from Rex, so the chances of McD going .500 during his first season are better than many of you seem to think.
Most years they're accurate for most teams. That's what Las Vegas wants. But that doesn't mean than any particular line is accurate for a particular team that season.
So we have this great roster but coaching was holding us back? Then why were all the scouts and Doug Whaley fired then?
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Racin' for Mason
Relaxin' for Jackson
Taking a pounding for Browning
Season is awash go get Josh
I'm out of stupid rhymes
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I hope they follow through on those words.
I'll believe it when it happens.
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UCLA QB Josh Rosen is a pure passer. Beautiful motion, full field vision and plenty of arm… https://www.instagram.com/p/BUIMst_l1DB/
Yes, he has incredible arm talent. When he got on campus it was very apparent.
And if you aren't sure, ask him. He even gave himself a nickname, The Rosen One.
UCLA's Golden Boy. The Rosen One. J-Chosen.
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I hope the process includes some innovative thinking along these lines. Supposedly we are revamping the scouting department from scratch, so there ought to be consideration for a qb expert.
Bills are looking for scouts as we speak. Why not get the best QB scout in the NFL and give him a cool title and triple his salary?
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Any chance any of these qb gurus who work with players are good scouts? If anybody were really this good, you'd think they already would be on someone's staff -- unless the position is just inherently very hard to predict.
They are on staff but many of them were OC's this year. The other route is to conduct a search for the top QB scout. Maybe there is a guy in Oakland who had Carr #1 on his QB board.
It's worth looking for someone with QB expertise because I don't trust anyone in the Bills to have that QB scouting acumen.
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Elite tweeter, is Andy.
In terms of talent #Bills a bottom-10 roster. What happens to Doug Whaley if they go 6-10 this year?
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Ugh, oh. Doug, you are on notice.
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I wonder if you could do that or if it would conflict with his ESPN contract.
Ah, I posted before reading your comment.
Okay, so I'm down to the old eight ball or John Gruden. Appreciate your thoughts.
Concept is the same. I wanted to hire Kyle Shanahan or Jim Bob Cooter when Bills were doing coaching search because of the QB guru stuff. When you get get your hands on one it makes the odds of finding your next QB much nicer.
Since we don't have one on staff, Bills need to hire a QB Czar. Find the best QB scout on the market. Let them prove it with last 5 draft boards on QB's. Then let them get to work. Pay them $$$. It's the most important position on the field and Pegula could use his money to really get things going.
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Well, despite the continual ribbing you get from some posters, I think your insight on qbs is good. I surmise you make a distinction between John Gruden on ESPN and off-camera? He seems to like pretty much everyone on his show.
Yeah, on the show he has to fluff everyone. But the dude is a QB genius in real life. I really think I would pay him as a QB draft consultant. Bills have no one like him scouting or on staff that I am aware of.
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SoTier,
Sound description of the situation, but it leaves me wondering if there is any prescriptive advice hidden in the description. Or is it mainly a matter of chance?
My view is that we likely do not have a franchise qb on the roster. I expect us to draft a qb early unless someone we have now unexpectedly emerges as a franchise qb.
I surmise there must be some rational basis for determining which highly rated qbs in 2018 are more likely to achieve NFL success.
My advice would be to not follow Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Greg Cossell, or any of the standard talking heads. You want to find someone with great NFL traits who also played well and was productive in college. If guys aren't getting it done in college, they don't usually get it at the next level. You also don't draft a guy who played well in college if he is lacking the tools to go up a level.
The best bet for finding a top QB would be to have a John Gruden, Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, or Jim Bob Cooter on your staff. Since the Bills don't I would pay John Gruden 1 million dollars to watch the tape he watches anyway and to give me his QB notes off the record.
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Thats fair to include Jimmy G and I agree on Teddy with the injury. We cannot count either of those as hits or misses at this point. Carr is a hit, Manziel is a miss and I'd say Bortles is a miss, 1 out of 3.
If 2018 does have 4 guys that are higher rated than Trubisky (which isn't crazy to think), in all likelihood, you will have a shot at 10 at one of them. If not, you will definitely be able to get one at 5 (as an example). You can use your other 1st to get to there.
I think the Bills could land a Carson Wentz level QB prospect if they are aggressive. But Sean will have to give up 2 1sts plus more.
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It is about percentages; every draft pick is. It is an evaluation of how likely this player is to succeed? That's what scouting is. So you keep using 2014 where 1 out of 4 has worked. There was a 25% chance you were the Raiders and a 75% chance you were the Jags, Browns or Vikings. In 2015 it didn't matter if you were 1 or 2. Next year you may be at 10 picking between 2 guys that graded out higher than Trubisky who went 2. It is a much better value play. The data supports that. You've armed yourself with an extra 1st as well in case you need to get in the top 5 to get your guy. You can swing a deal with the Bears as an example.
Your numbers for 2014 are wrong. There were 5 guys that were being looked at. Derek Carr, Jimmy G, and Teddy B are all hits. Teddy B had a terrible injury but the Vikings were happy and his trajectory was positive. At best you need to remove him from the misses. Then you have Bortles and Johnny Manziel. Manziel wouldn't have been drafted in the first if not for Browns owner. Bortles was the guy that a team drafted high and he has a lot of the qualities that people like from 2018 class. Tall, pro-style, etc.
Your assertion that a QB will be there at ten that is better than anyone from 2017 I also find speculative. There is nothing to back that up.
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Time to stop crying about mahommes......its over
You should start looking at next years qb prospects and start crusading them....at least that would be a better use of your efforts
I am not discussing Mahomes. You are. Yes, stop crying and bringing him up in every thread.
Thanks.
We're discussing QB acquisition strategies for 2018. if you have nothing to add buzz off.
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You use the Raiders as the example but ignore that the Jags, Browns and maybe even the Vikings got burned grabbing their guy in the wrong class. It's all about percentages. You are trying to increase the chances of landing a franchise guy. The Titans and Bucs took high-end prospects and it's worked. Instead of having to guess the right guy out of a group of 4 (2014) you want to be in a position where 2 of 2 are stars (2015).
No, it's not. It's about scouting the prospects and drafting a very good QB prospect if they are available. If Raiders pass on Carr how does it help them that 2015 is better?
If you want a Jameis Winston you need to finish last.
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I agree that we don't know but there has never been a draft in history where we knew what it would be a year out. Things change throughout the course of the year. We do know however the prospects as the scouting has been going on. There are just so many guys right now. We knew the 2003 NBA draft was great before and the 2013 draft wasn't. It's played out as such. The 2018 draft will be a good QB draft and can be a great one. There are high-end prospects and lots and lots of them. So while we don't know anything a year out we know that we are likely to have guys emerge. That's how it always happens.
And 2015 was supposed to be better than 2014. It was. I bet the Raiders are glad they didn't wait for the "right" class. You need to move on opportunities when they present themselves. The idea that these guys are all better than 2017 but then you can just move up for them is way too hopeful.
Allen looks like a Big Ben clone. I am expecting him to improve greatly this season. Obviously all these guys have to have good years to be drafted high, but it does look promising.
I will be watching Darnold, Allen, Rosen, McSorley, Jackson, and Mayfield very closely this year.
I think it is time to take the Kansas City player off your profile, you are a Bills fan not a Chiefs fan.
Big Ben never had a 56% completion percentage in the MAC. His final year he was near 70%
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Allen has the most physical talent of any one even over your boy Mahomes and a stronger arm than Kelly. If he can improve his pocket awareness and production he could be the top guy.
It's funny that I got attacked for liking a guy with a big arm. No, I like a guy who had a big arm and played well. When Josh Allen starts completing more than 60% in the Mountain West he can start getting hype.
At least he has a good mentor.
http://cle.247sports.com/Bolt/Manziel-working-with-top-QB-Josh-Allen-52755315
Bills hire Marvin Allen, KC Dir College Scouting
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Good hire. It would have been better to have these guys here before the draft.