jeffismagic
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Posts posted by jeffismagic
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With respect to the highlighted segment I think you are significantly misreading the situation. ( I say this respectfully.) Do you really believe that the Pegulas would essentially blow up the organization and start from scratch and expect a quick turnaround? Let's get serious here. If Pegula was satisfied with the Bills being stuck as a fringe team with the potential of being at best an 8-8 team he would have kept Whaley and the front office staff in tack and then separately hired a new HC. Not only did he fire Whaley but he in total dismissed the scouting staff. That isn't a sign of an owner looking for incremental changes. That is a sign of an owner/s willing to sacrifice in the short term with the hope that in the long term the franchise will be reconstituted and result in a contending team.
You and I completely agree on the qb issue and the opportunity that existed to address that issue in this draft. So there is no point in rehashing that issue. The empowered HC appears to believe that he will have better opportunities to get a franchise qb at a later time. We both disagree with his thinking but the decision has been made.
With respect to some of the other moves that the HC/GM made I'm not stressing over individual moves. Every decision can be challenged and every decision can be supported. When all is said and done what is really going to count is the overall body of work that will inevitably include mistakes.
The challenge as fans is not to get too consumed with a particular decision (except for the qb decision) but to try to keep the mind-set of how is the bigger picture being developed as time goes on. If fans are so frustrated and aren't willing to handle the predictable losses and set backs over the next two or maybe even three seasons then it might be better to get off the bus and then get back on at a later time.
John, I think the problem is you are assuming a greater competence in the Bills ownership than they deserve. There is a capricious nature to how they run their teams that continues to this day.
I can highlight this with a few key points:
Sabres:
After running into Lafontaine twice Terry offers him the GM job.
Remarkably, Terry Pegula, after having met Pat LaFontaine just twice, offered him the Sabres’ general manager job during a dinner with the former Sabres player. Keep in mind, LaFontaine had never been a general manager. LaFontaine turned it down pointing out that he didn’t have the skills for that job.
What kind of hiring and firing process is this?
It’s one that seems spastic and inconsistent. This unorthodox and unrigorous process has resulted in at least one bad outcome: a newly hired President of Hockey Operations who resigned after just a few months on the job, leaving the Sabres with yet another public relations nightmare.
Now, during his time here, LaFontaine did hire Tim Murray to be the GM and it may be that Murray turns out to be a stellar personnel man. But, if it does, it has the feel of the blackjack player who hit on 17 and got a 4. It would be a lucky outcome from a bad process. https://www.buffalorising.com/2014/03/the-pegula-process-why-sabres-fans-should-be-worried/
Then we have the hiring of Rex Ryan when the Bills GM Doug Whaley told the Pegulas not to hire him for football reasons but the Pegulas were in love.
Then we get the firing of Rex Ryan and the Pegulas now fall in love with Sean McDermott before even interviewing him. They decided to meet McDermott first, on their yacht, without those pesky football guys (Whaley and Monos) getting in the way first!
It was notable that, the day before the "formal" interview that would include Whaley and former director of player personnel Jim Monos, the Pegulas invited McDermott to join them for dinner on their yacht in Boca Raton, Fla.
He had the Pegulas at "hello." He impressed them so much, that as Kim drove McDermott to the airport after the next day's six-hour session, she was already telling him to have his wife (who had been invited to Boca Raton as well, but couldn't make the trip) call her for information about housing and other essentials in Western New York.
Whaley's virtual disappearance from public view after McDermott's arrival wasn't a coincidence. It was a fulfillment of a condition of McDermott's employment.
http://buffalonews.com/2017/05/01/vic-caruccis-bills-wake-call-new-gm-wont-change-structure/
Again, the decision to fire Whaley was not a carefully thought out plan. He was part of the coaching search! It was the end result of falling love with the young DC from Carolina before ever even seeing him and handing him Chip Kelly type authority.
Why do you fell Zay Jones is a 2nd or 3rd possession WR? He's not slow. He's not short. He's not just a slot WR. What in his game have you seen that makes you think he can't be a possible #1 or stud #2. He looks to have it all in all the games I've watched. Just curious as to why you think he's just an average guy.
There are two methods you can use to evaluate players.
1.Scouting
2.Analytics
I believe actual old school scouting is the best method and should carry the most weight. One of the people I talked to said his nickname for Zay Jones was "glue" because he believed NFL DB's would stick to Jones like glue.
Then there is the analytics data. I think this should be applied by smart teams to top them off or recheck their work. Zay Jones also sets off alarm bells there.
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/
Lots of nice athletic numbers but an alarmingly low yards per catch.
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Hey Jeff, if the Bills were going to trade Sammy over the summer, what would you think if the compensation were two 2nd round picks- with one of them being conditional...so basically two 2nd rounders at face value, but potentially a 1st and a 2nd rounder?
exactly
I think everything depends on context. If the Bills were truly doing a rebuild and the trade for Sammy resulted in a bottom 3 finish (top 3 pick!) and 2 2nds I could be persuaded. But my understanding is that Sean McD and Beane sold Pegulas on making the playoffs with Tyrod this year.
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He has the 4th most yards in NFL history before his 24th birthday. How does that work for you?
He has played in 77% of the games, Julio Jones was at 70.8% at the same point in his career. You must have hated him through 3 years.
The last 9 games of the 2015 season he was the 4th most targeted receiver. He had the most yards in the league over that span. He wasn't elite at that point? (Credit to Bandit for some of these).
FWIW, within the league they are not using gross stats because they aren't a bunch of simpletons. The 1st thing that they do is look at what you do with each opportunity. That's why Mike Gillislee got $4M this offseason. His YPC was phenomenal.
We just need stop analyzing things with "what we think we are seeing" and start looking at the facts. He has been elite when thrown the ball. That's all that a receiver can do. Now he needs to get healthy and see the ball more for sure. If those things happen there is no reason to expect the production to be much different.
There's a reason why players who go to Buffalo lose value in dynasty leagues. Getting drafted by Buffalo is a death sentence for an NFL wide receiver. Sammy Watkins would be a huge star if he was playing with a real QB and a modern NFL offense.
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It's a worthless cherry picked stat. It doesn't put points on the board and it doesn't win games.
Sammy has not had an elite year yet in the NFL so stop saying he has elite anything at this point. He has on year of barely over a 1,000 yards and wasn't even top 10.
Yes he has the physical talent but he hasn't been elite at anything in the NFL to this point. He can't stay on the field because he is constantly hurt with a slew of different injuries every year.
So there is no rational non kool-aid drinking individual that would try and spin a 28 catch year in to being elite or the fact that he hasn't been a top in his own draft class in production: yards,receptions, TD's, etc. And the only thing you can come up with to defend his abysmal production which no one else uses is yards per target.
I don't think anyone has ever accused me of drinking the Koolaid on this board and I can state that Sammy Watkins is a special talent who the Bills would be foolish to trade for a low 1st or 2nd round pick.
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thanks OP
Dennison seems well versed in adapting to the strengths and weaknesses of the QB /football team.
nice work
How do you know this? Just standing next to Gary Kubiak is enough?
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Link?
Sorry, was driving around. 5:39
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The only flaw I see in all of this is that I don't think Dennison has had full time play calling duties before. He's either worked under Shannahan or Kubiak who ran things.
Correct. He wasn't calling the plays. So maybe this means something, maybe it doesn't.
I don't think we will finish in the top 10 passing. Top 20 is likely based on short routes and YAC I expect and will be disappointed if less than top 5 runnjng
I expect another bottom 5 passing offense finish.
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If winter is coming put on a heavy coat and deal with the storm. Staying locked up in a house with the heat cranked up is a stifling way to encounter the cycles of life.
As far as your preferring a top X's and O's guy you are misinterpreting why teams usually win. For the most part more talent usually prevails over less talent. And to carry that notion out further the team usually with the better qb prevails over the team with the lesser qb. With the exception of Belichick coaches don't win because they outsmart other coaches. In fact, coaches who usually try to outsmart the opposition more often than not end up outsmarting themselves. Our dumb former HC thought he could out-design the opposition rather than have his team prepared to outplay the opposition. What a freaking dope!
Your criticism that the Bills mistakenly drafted to replace players thus forcing them to focus on need rather than talent is off the mark. As long as the drafted player is drafted in the approximate range of his ranking then what is the problem with that? If you don't reach because of a need then why complain that you are filling a hole that needs to be addressed one way or the other? From a production and salary standpoint it made sense to let Robert Woods go. He was replaced by a cheaper and hopefully as talented receiver. Player movement and cap management are an inescapable part of the landscape that all teams have to contend with.
I have said this on many posts much to the consternation of the loyalists. Now that a new organizational structure and complete new staffing is in place it is going to take at least three years to sort out the mess that preceded this new regime. There is no quick fix. Over time consistently acting competently instead of erratically will result in success. That's all you can hope for. This lurching back and forth resulted in a lot of motion accompanied with little intelligence. Where has it gotten us?
I agree that the team with the better QB wins. And so what did we do? Did we hire an offensive coach who also is a QB guru? If we had hired a Shanahan or a Jim Bob Cooter I would be thrilled. No, we hired another zone defense coach. And what was this new coach/GM's philosophy? Bring back Tyrod Taylor after he FAILED last year to do enough to justify picking up the option. And for what purpose? Because this is a playoff team? Because we need to win now? If so then win now. If you're going to rebuild, rebuild. Bills always try to middle things and it gets mediocre results. Not only that the contract is bad. 8,500,000 dead cap for a guy we might cut after this year? This is not smart planning or analytics. It's a punt from the 42 yard line.
Now let's get to the draft. Tre White was drafted in the right place. I won't get into who they passed because that has been exhausted to death. But it was a QB prospect that someone who was his former boss and QB guru wanted. That should have alerted Sean that he might not have the winning hand. Now to Zay Jones. I think he was not only a reach but we spent a 2nd AND 3rd on him. Terrible value for a future 2nd or 3rd possession receiver. Dawkins I love as a pick and where we got him. But again, to fill the need they gave away picks. You don't trade away picks when you are building or rebuilding to fill needs.
This same carelessness with draft picks came to their FA signings. Vlad Ducasse? WHY??? You don't pick up fat slobs that can't play when you just let your #1 corner and #2 WR walk for big money. You need to get value back using the NFL's formula.
Now to the time frame. I believe you are right that an owner should pick the best guys and show patience. But when have the Pegulas demonstrated this? They have fired their last two hired coaches in 2 or less years. You can hope this will be different but if the Bills win less then 8 games in 2017 and 2018 I believe we will be hiring a new GM and coach in January 2019.
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I remember when the hype for Jeff Tuel was real around here too. He was 1 bad pass vs KC away from being our starter. Now he works at Dairy Queen presumably
Tuel and Peterman both throw floaters. There was a pass Peterman threw at the Senior Bowl to the sideline where the ball seemed to just take forever.
That might work against 3rd stringers in a preseason game but against NFL corners they will step in front of that and run in for 6.
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The Bills decided to go with admin type guys. At head coach I would have preferred a top X's and O's guy. At GM I wanted to do a full search and hire the best talent evaluator money could buy.
The draft was an attempt to replace players that left for cheap. Not the hallmark of the best drafting teams in the NFL. And now the head coach who was handed Chip Kelly power by the Pegullibles decides not to pick up Sammy's option and start tough guy bravado on Dareus.
To me it feels like winter is coming.
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I hope this doesn't happen but I can understand why Sammy wouldn't want to play here.
Dinosaur football, no QB, fans that blame him for getting injured.
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Whether people want to admit it or not I have always believed this team is rebuilding- and if there is anything I have learned as a Bills fan is that your rebuild does not start until you get your QB- just like a previous post mentioned, get the QB and the rest falls into place
I doubt these guys would know a QB if they walked up and tapped us on the shoulder. I am starting to think Tyrod will be brought back in 2018.
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Antonio Brown says "What choo talkin bout Willis?"
Zay Jones is not Antonio Brown. That's the point of drafting for upside.
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I wouldn't mind trading Sammy along with a couple of our top picks to secure the #1 spot in the 2018 draft- but then again I believe Zay Jones will be our #1 receiver in a few years anyway...better get something for Sammy while we still can.
Zay Jones is not and never will be a #1WR. If Beane thinks that get him out of here.
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If they trade Watkins they will have to spend another first to get a #1WR. And whoever they draft will not be as good as Sammy.
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I thought you were all about getting the QB? What if you got a very high pick for a guy you might only have one more year, and it gave you more ammo to get up very high in a (supposedly) QB rich draft?
Trading Watkins doesn't help get a QB. Unless you're trying to tank. If you tank do it right and don't have Sean Jauron his way to 6 or 7 wins.
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Trading Watkins is one of the dumbest ideas I have ever heard. Then again this is the Bills.
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And so it begins.
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you can see that in their top 3 picks.
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This was the thinking that led to trading Marshawn Lynch.
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Whaley definitely wanted Hue. I know that for a fact... I know someone who was in Jackson's "camp" if that is the right word and Doug had pretty much told that Hue was the guy to the extent that Hue and Schwartz had spoken and believed they could come to an agreement to keep JS on. Michael Silver reported that Jackson went to bed that Friday night believing he was going to be the Bills next Head Coach and then Jackson himself corroborated much of that later that year.
I'm less sure Brandon wanted Rex. I don't believe that has ever been reported by any creditable source. What has been reported is that Russ told Terry "don't let him out of the room" but people use that quote out of its context so often. The advice Russ actually gave is "when you have your guy don't let him out of the room." Terry and Kim thought they'd found their guy before Russ uttered those immortal words. Can I believe Russ gave Rex advice on how to charm the Pegulas? Sure. But I don't believe Russ Brandon was in that room banging the table for Rex Ryan... not when his good buddy Doug wanted Jackson.
Ultimately it will be the moment of regret Whaley lives with if he never gets another shot as a GM. He played the company line he thought he could work with Rex and he should have put his foot down and just said "NO".
Absolutely. And from what I heard, Whaley and Brandon's relationship was never the same after Rex was hired. Whaley was brought in by Brandon and they thought they could make Whaley do their bidding. But Whaley thought he could convince people to get better and he never realized what the game actually was. Once Rex was hired Whaley was a dead man walking.
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Jackson was the leading candidate until they met Rex. It's clear that they preferred a veteran coach, which is why the other guys didn't warrant serious consideration. The last thing Pegulas wanted in their first year was a green coach and a green GM (who didn't have glowing reviews from their NFL gurus)
Why are you singling out Shanahan, when they also interviewed other coaches who've looked good so far? Could it be that you're pushing a hindsight agenda?
Speaking of hindsight! Sure, after Rex is hired Pegula says that.
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The football guys, being ....?
Doug Whaley told them to hire a Hue Jackson or a Kyle Shanahan and keep Jim Schwartz defense in place. Russ Brandon wanted Rex for non-football reasons. Brandon's view won out.
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Hindsight is great, isn't it?
At the time, Ryan was the top available candidate. How many teams can win with deficient talent and Geno Smith & Michael Vick as QBs.
Everyone now piles on Pegulas immediate love affair with Ryan, but it's not hard to believe why they wouldn't fall for a coach who's gone to two AFC championships, has beaten Belichick and now had something to prove to a division rival.
Now I'll await you telling me that you knew all along that Rex was selling them a bill of goods, when his real plan was to retire and hand over the reigns to his imbecile brother Fredo.
The football guys including the GM told the Pegulas not to hire Rex. It's on them for listening to Russ Brandon over Doug Whaley. But of course Whaley got fired and Brandon remains.
Who else is all in on this new way of doing things?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Agreed on all counts.