GunnerBill

I'd consider Morgan and Mims. I like them both a lot for very different reasons. I haven't got my board in front of me right now but Fuaga and Fautanu are like 24 and 26 on the big board so could be in play from a pure value perspective. It would depend what the rest of the board looks like. I have discussed this before but while it might be popular to say "but the Bills don't need a tackle!" right now - Brown is a FA after 2024 and Dion turns 30 on day 1 of the draft. I know they have extended Dawkins but if he plays the full 4 years of that deal with the Bills my strong belief is they won't all be at left tackle. I think he could well end up inside (we have been through the reasons for that many times but primarily he has always had to really fight his weight to remain quick footed enough to be effective at tackle and as that gets harder you get away with more at guard). The question for the Bills on my tier 3 guys would be "do they think they can play left tackle?" If the answer is "no" then they should not take them. If the answer is "yes but they can start at guard in 2024 then we will see what happens with Dion and Spencer" then I can see the logic.

Yea the Chiefs trading up for a tackle is one of the most likely moves in the draft IMO. They need to be ahead of Baltimore and San Francisco who are both potential tackle spots. The Bills won't trade with them in case it is a receiver. I think Green Bay at #25 are a potential partner but not if DeJean is there as he was here. Tampa are possible at #26, Arizona at #27 or Detroit at #29. I would think you try and get as high in that list as you can for fear of getting beaten to the trade up punch by the other two. Should be said though that in this mock the OTs haven't flown as I think they will on draft night and Fautanu Latham, Mims and Guyton were all still there. But even in that scenario Mims's stratospheric ceiling makes him a worthy trade up target. The way I see this tackle class is: Tier 1 is Joe Alt who is the best all around left tackle ready to start and be great day 1 and Olu Fashanu is the best pass protection technician in the class. Tier 2 for me is then Jordan Morgan who has the highest floor (aside from Alt) and Amarius Mims who has the highest ceiling. Tier 3 is Fuaga and Fautanu who I think are both 10 year NFL starters that you can try at left tackle but ultimately may be at their best elsewhere on the line. Tier 4 is Guyton who I think is a right tackle early but who might be capable of developing into a left tackle in the NFL. Tier 5 maybe somewhat controversially is Latham who I think is a right tackle only. And he could well be a good one. But of all those guys he is the one I feel has the least chance to be an NFL left tackle and hence I have him lower than the consensus.

Whereas I can see it with Penix. I wouldn't draft JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix in the first round even if I was told zero QBs would declare for the next 3 drafts and this was my only shot.

I like Tom's answer. Josh Allen but he has to get past the Chiefs and that is hard because of Patrick Mahomes. That is the right answer.

I can absolutely see the Chiefs coming up here if Mims is still on the board. I still think he will be a Steeler or a Cowboy though.

Yep. If he is there they take him. I don't think he gets past the Eagles though.

I would on the YAC. I wouldn't on the hands.

I have 5 or 6 folks in the draft community I am on DM'ing terms with.

Interesting. I have heard New England really likes JJ and that he very well could be the guy at #3.

Because lots of people working in scouting departments and it is an incestuous business. And teams also play the smokescreen bluff and double bluff game with the media.

I've had a quick look at who were my top guys available to the Bills at their first pick of the draft since I've been doing it (based on where they actually picked, of course some years they could have considered trade ups) and I did bang the table for a few of these guys at the time.... Evans, Higgins and Marshall in particular. 2021 - Terrace Marshall (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked) 2020 - Tee Higgins (was my WR4 top 3 had gone before the Bills picked) 2019 - AJ Brown (was my WR1) 2018 - Calvin Ridley (was my WR1 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR2 Courtland Sutton) 2017 - Chris Godwin (was my WR4 but the guy I liked for the Bills was my WR5.... a fella called Zay Jones) 2016 - Laquon Treadwell (was my WR1 but that was a bad receiver class I didn't have any first round grades at the position and was anti-selecting one) 2015 - Tyler Lockett (was my WR6 top 5 had gone before the Bills picked because we had no first round pick) 2014 - Mike Evans (was my WR1 and the guy I banged the table for)

The bolded is exactly right. It would be really bad form to agree a pay cut with a player to help your roster construction and then trade him. I suspect Beane had guaranteed Dawson he is here for at least 2024. The reputational damage you do with agents of making a move like that overrides any trade value you might elicit IMO.

Awful idea

I think he can play as a move receiver. He can play on the boundary 75% of his time but you are not running a ton of down the field stuff with him. I see him as more Deebo Samuel in usage than Stefon Diggs. He lines up wide about 3/4s of the time but then runs mainly in cutting or horizontal stuff. I don't think he can play as a vertical receiver to anywhere near the extent Diggs did or has in his NFL career. Stef was kind of a move/vertical hybrid. CeeDee Lamb is that too. Antonio Brown at his peak was as well. But those guys are rare.

Totally agree with that. Darnold, Minchew and Stidham are currently pencilled in starters! EDIT: Basically we haven't backfilled that Fitzpatrick, Keenum, Tyrod, Foles, Brian Hoyer type tier from 5 or 6 years ago. There is Brissett and possibly I suppose Minshew but there are not a ton of other proven capable bridge Quarterbacks

Yea. There is an AJ McCarron to him. I have him 6th of 6 among the top QB options. Arizona is definitely trying to create a market. I think Denver would love to move up, but have no ammunition. Minnesota is desperate. The Giants brass if they have another bad year with Jones might be out that creates an urgency... who knows that the Raiders plan is? I think the Cards are in a position to really ramp it up. And IF (as I have heard is possible McCarthy goes #3) and Daniels or Maye are at #4 then what I was told is teams you don't think are in the QB market would be in the QB market. Jets and Seahawks spring to mind. Possibly Saints?

Sure. If we want to move up from like #144 to #130.... early 5th to late 4th.... that equates to late 6th round value. You could offer Elam for that.

It's hilarious to me too, but it seems almost inevitable that someone is going to go up for him. I'd be saying to Minnesota "If you don't someone else will." I can see something like Minn's two firsts this year, and their first next year but Arizona's 2025 2nd going back the other way. The other team I keep hearing are very much in the mix for a trade up to #4 is the Giants. That must be attractive to AZ.... Get an extra pick and still get Harrison or Nabers.

Nubin goes second round.

Thanks. It would be interesting to see the same exercise for Superbowl losers. You have already mentioned Jones and Chase, but the Eagles two years ago were one controversial (although correct) DPI away and AJ Brown was acquired by trading away a first round pick and they had a top 10 pick (who they traded up a couple of spots for) on the team too. Larry Fitz with the Kurt Warner Cardinals as well.... I'm not saying there is a ton but there are 3/4 Superbowls that went right down to the wire that totally flip that narrative. So while I am not saying it is worth nothing, it definitely isn't total proof of the hypothesis.

But was a 2 time 1st team all pro a 1 time offensive player of the year and a two time NFL receptions leader. Yea the back half of his career has been a bust with injuries and instability at the QB position but he was on historic pace the first 4 years. The other one I question is Mike Williams. I don't think he is close to a "++". I'd take Courtland Sutton over him. Williams has 400 more yards and 7 more touchdowns but has started 7 more games and had Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert. Compare that to the QB disaster that Denver has been. If you swapped those situations around Sutton would have a bigger statistical lead on Williams than he has on Sutton without a doubt IMO.

Yea Carolina is the other possibility. They have been doing work on left tackles.

Yea I am a fan. I actually see a bit of Dion Dawkins in his game. I can see the Bills liking him. However, I don't think they would go that way at #28.... that isn't what this is about IMO. All of Baltimore, San Fran and KC have been strongly liked with Morgan. If there is a team early on day 2 who like him maybe the Bills are trying to set themselves up as the spot to get to.

I think they repeat last year. Trade back and then up again. Their GM is not afraid to move around the board.

Correct but that was a no trade mock. Whoever was the 4th QB off the board was going #11. In reality it is 4 QBs in absolute maximum the first 6 picks. I think Daniels will go at #2. But if he doesn't there is a route to him being the 4th QB taken based on what I hear.