Flip Johnson

Buscaglia tried to suggest that the day didn't portend well for EJ, but nothing remotely new related to EJ was said at this luncheon.

I expect the Bills to sign McCown, a mediocre QB who fits Roman's system. Then I expect them to draft a QB (maybe Hundley) in rd. 3 or 4. While I've been intrigued by Locker, it is a lot to expect of Roman and David Lee to work with three projects at the same time. It makes sense to have one known quantity on the roster and pour most of your teaching time and energy into the two young bucks with the hopes that one of them will really pop in training camp.

The Bills are not retaining Spiller. Assuming the McKelvin is going to be asked to be the #2 CB, then Goodwin has a good chance to be the team's #4 WR and #1 KR. I like his chances to make the team, and a healthy Goodwin can win you a game. But he is not durable or versatile enough to catch the 45-55 balls that Hogan can and could never compete for #3.

I have heard a lot of speculation about the Bills RB plans in 2015. I looked at Roman's tendencies from 2011-13 (the NFC championship years) for hints of what his preferences might be. They are very similar from year to year. 2011 Gore 282 carries L.James 112 carries Alex Smith 52 carries 2012 Gore 258 carries L. James 72 carries Smith/Kaepernick 94 carries 2013 Gore 276 carries L.James 78 carries Kaepernick 92 carries If you look at the Bills personnel, I think you could make a couple educated guesses, based on Roman's past. 1) Roman wants a workhorse back, not a committee. Unless he loves Bryce Brown, that RB is not on the roster. 2) Spiller will be gone - he can't handle the 15-20+ carries that Gore got, and he will be too expensive for the 6-8 carries that James got. 3) Jackson will be a 3rd down/change of pace back. 4) Dixon will be a special teamer - he already was a special teamer for Roman and barely ever got the football. 5) It's understandable why Rex keeps reiterating that EJ needs to use his feet more. Whether EJ is the 2015 starter or not, the starting QB is going to need to be able to run 5-6 times a game. 6) If he doesn't cut it as a #1, I don't see what Bryce Brown will do for this team. I don't see him beating out Jackson as a 3rd down back unless Jackson is a surprise camp casualty.

Here's another way of getting at this. Kyle Orton performed at the level of around the 25th-best QB in the NFL. If he had played at a top 18 or top 20 level they could have made the playoffs. When we talk about FA QBs that is what I am thinking of. Given the offensive pieces that are in place and given Rex/Roman's philosophy, who could play at at top 18 or 20 level?

We all want to know how far the Bills are from making the playoffs. Rex has already stated his opinion that an elite quarterback is not necessary to be a contender. We know from his history that this statement is both true (Dilfer, Sanchez) and risky (his last four season with the Jets). In other words, it is not impossible to make the playoffs without a good QB, but it isn't easy and it should be your longterm gameplan. With that in mind, I made my personal list of how I would rank teams in the AFC at the end of the year. This is based on the end of 2014, not any recent moves. Then I ranked the quarterbacks. Again, this is based on past performance, not on how I think they will do in 2015. While there's a degree of subjectivity to my rankings, I think you'll see that there isn't much discrepancy between team/QB. They're generally very similar. The biggest gaps would be San Diego (9-7 is low with a QB as good as Rivers) and Buffalo (9-7 is high with QB play as bad as Orton/Manuel). This begs the question - what level of mediocre QB play would suffice? I believe if the Bills had gotten mid-level QB play (i.e. Dalton/A.Smith/Tannehill) they would have won 10-11 games and made the playoffs. Let's stop dreaming about Brees, Manning, etc., and see if this team can get mid-level QB production. That would take them to the playoffs. I believe this is Rex's short term plan, along with improving the already great defense. The long term plan will be to draft a QB. I also believe that while he knows this is not a way to win a Super Bowl it can work for one year, and that once you make the tournament, anything can happen (see '09, '10). AFC Power Rankings 1. New England 2. Denver 3. Pittsburgh 4. Baltimore 5. Indianapolis 6. Cincinnati 7. San Diego 8. Buffalo 9. Kansas City 10. Houston 11. Miami 12. Cleveland 13. New York Jets 14. Oakland 15. Tennessee 16. Jacksonville 2014 QB Power Rankings 1. Brady 2. Manning 3. Roethlisberger 4. Rivers 5. Luck 6. Flacco 7. Dalton 8. Alex Smith 9. Tannehill 10. Fitzpatrick 11. Orton/Manuel 12. Hoyer 13. Carr 14. Geno Smith 15. Locker/Whitehurst 16. Bortles

Imagine if the Bills had hired this guy. OBD would be holding a press conference welcoming Darrell Bevell to Buffalo tomorrow. That scene would be an all-time embarrassment.

Thanks for contributing. Licata does not have an NFL arm or anything remotely close to it.

Something happened between 2011 and last summer when Whaley had to encourage him to "be a football player." Let's hope the new staff can find it.

EJ has some Jason Campbell similarities - big projectable guy, picked too early in the draft, suffered under the weight of high expectations. Campbell played his best football in 2010-11 when Hue was his OC and then HC. His completion percentage and YPA during that stretch were actually excellent, particularly compared with the rest of his career.

Hue got a lot of production out of Jason Campbell as an OC in 2010 and a HC in 2011. Campbell may have some similarities with EJ - big guy with a lot of physical tools, probably picked too early, a lot of troubles with accuracy. Campbell played the best football of his career with Hue.

Austin Davis' stats (small sample) are better than Sam Bradford's. He had a nice stretch of six games before a 3-game road stretch against KC, SF, and AZ got him benched. I could see the Bills bringing in Davis and letting him compete alongside EJ, and an incoming 2nd or 3rd round pick, in the mode of the Flynn/Jackson/R.Wilson tandem the Seahawks brought in for 2012.

+1 Could not agree more. In 2012 the team lost games by 20, 24, 42, and 33. That was not a team without talent. That nonsense ended when Marrone showed up. He can get better in game, and there are great reasons to question Hackett. But Brandon is right.

The best chance is clearly Cincinnati losing two games. They are going to be underdogs for back to back weeks. I also expect SD/KC to "take care of business" by losing at least one. They will also be dogs next week.

Typical Buffalo inferiority complex that thinks Green Bay should be favored by 10. If Pack fans aren't worried about this game they should be. Green Bay is a .500 team on the road and does not have nearly as explosive an offense away from Lambeau. Denver is 7-0 at Mile High and any Bronco fan that watched the game should know they have the Bills' sloppiness and the officiating crew to thank for that win.

Here's the stat that I like. I give the Bills a 30% chance of winning the game @ Denver. I give them a 40% chance of winning vs. GB. That math gives them a 58% chance of splitting. If they split, they are 8-6, they can beat Oakland, and will be in the hunt for Week 17. I would take that.

I would like to see what Schwartz can do against Gronk with Aaron Williams. Could not agree more with this point. Marrone's arrival and the Pettine hire brought a toughness that was never there under Edwards or Wannstedt.

Last week was also a game the Bills have historically lost - the traditional "inferior opponent at home" loss with the 2013 Falcons and 2012 Titans and Rams as only the most recent examples. To play badly and win may be a sign that this is a different year. Beating the Jets on the road would again be that sign and give me a lot of optimism going forward.

This is not a legitimate either/or. I want both. Couldn't you sign CJ for 3yrs/10M? Is he really going to command more than that?

Situationally, this is a very similar game to the one Gailey/Fitz lost 35-34 to Tennessee and Matt Hasselbeck in 2012. The Bills were 3-3 going into that game and most people saw a home game against the Titans as an assumed W. I fully expect Buffalo to win this game handily. But a win will not prove much - it will just be "4-3 and on to the Jets." A surprise home loss = same old same old.

McKelvin wasn't great and he might be the Bills #3 corner. But his performance was night and day from the old days - he's physical, he's aware of where the ball is, and while he got beat a few times, he wasn't getting burned like the old days. The Cutler deep ball was a tremendous pass.

Let's say EJ goes 17 of 30 on Sunday, throws for about 210 yds, with a TD, an INT, and takes a couple sacks. That stat line is basically extrapolating from last year's averages. I tend to think it will be better with the addition of Watkins and Chicago's brutal defense. But let's say he just does about what he averaged last year. Is that good enough to win? Obviously, it depends on the running game, special teams, and the way our defense plays. I would be disappointed with that stat line because I think EJ can do better against this team. But I do think that type of QB play will give the Bills a solid chance to win.

EJ won't get benched for Orton I am an EJ supporter, but regardless of that the organization has too many sunk costs in Manuel to make a quick move. Whaley has said all along that they want a guy who can go .500 if he has to come in for a few games. They thought that could be Thad and it wasn't. Give the organization credit for A) holding Thad accountable and B) getting someone who can do that. As for the people that think they should have signed a backup earlier - I don't think Kyle Orton was excited about going through training camp.

Big, big upgrade to this position.

Rather than get into the reasons of why we should or should not have hope, think about this: There have been A LOT of Bills season of recent vintage where hope levels have been low at the start of the year. The only year where the team did not win or lose a nail-biter on opening day was in 2012 (the Fitzpatrick disaster, 48-28 at the Jets). Every other year the team has either won the game or lost a very close contest. This includes the 25-24 loss to New England when Schonert was fired the week before. You could look this up - but the Bills have only lost one game decisively on Opening Day going back to 2002. My point: everyone needs to calm the freak down. The Bills have good matchups for the first quarter of the season. If they go 2-2 or better, we'll have a season. If they are 1-3 or worse, then let the cries for Hackett and Marrone begin. But let's play a few games that freaking matter.