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eSJayDee

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Posts posted by eSJayDee

  1. I think that question can be answered by posing another question:

     

    Can the Dee go through a 16 game season never allowing more than 13 points AND come playoff time have the Dee & ST score at least 2 TDs each game?

     

    If you answered in the affirmative, then yes, it is possible, though not guaranteed.

  2. You lose your top 2 guys at a position, you expect a dropoff. This was particularly apparent in this instance as we lost them in the same week.

    That said, I don't know whether it's by design, or lack of talent of the players we have, but I don't think the lack of contributions by our TEs contributes that much to the overall very poor production we get from our offense.

  3. It just occurred to me that if your opponent manages only 3 points for 9 minutes of possession time, chances are, they're only going to score like 12-15 points. That's even assuming they score EACH time. That should leave your offense enough time for 5-6 drives. Expecting them to match that 12-15 points is not too much.

    Granted, the defense wasn't great today. But they did only surrender a net of 9 points (scored 1 TD, took the field in FC range 2x) and held PIT to like 260 yards. (5 less than WE generated!) That's good enough to win w/ even a modicum of support by the rest of the team.

  4. Let's see, the defense gave up 1 TD & 5 FGs. Twice they took the field w/ Pitt already in FG position. They also scored a TD. So basically, they were responsible for surrendering 9 points.

    ST gave up the ball once inside our 20 & missed a FG that they should make over 90% of the time. So let's say their contribution was a net loss of 6 points.

    The offense scored 2 TDs & drove into position for 2 FGs. They also surrendered the ball deep in their territory AND gave up a TD. So their output amounts to like 10 points.

    Out of those results, which is more likely to create or win or loss?

    Dee giving up 9 points? I certainly hope you win most of those.

    ST surrendering 6 points? It certainly doesn't help you win, but it isn't the cause of the loss. (Ask the Rams about lousy ST.)

    How 'bout an offense that only nets 10 points? Let's see, on an average, that would make you the worst offense in the league, by a large margin. Also I suspect the 260 or whatever yards they gained would probably also rank them last. (I'd like to add that surprisingly, our Dee held their offense to 5 less yards.)

    Our offense at its best is only mediocre, one a bad day (which is about 1/2 the time), it sucks.

  5. Right now (or this past season), when Drew is playing well, the offense reaches the level of mediocrity. The QB is the primary (it could be argued how much) component of the O. When Drew plays poorly, we suck. (This could be a chicken vs. egg thing).

    I would certainly hope that a 1st round QB like Losman has the talent to elevate the offensive production beyond the level of mediocrity. If not, then we made a mistake in drafting him at such a price.

  6. I don't think the duration of his contract is the issue. Typically, when a coach is offered a 'promotion' (i.e. position coach to coordinator, or Coord to HC), a team is obliged to let him go. I believe this is no longer a requirement, but you might otherwise be left w/ an unhappy employee & considering the effort that these guys are required to expend (like 100 hr work weeks), that's a bad thing.

  7. The thing you're failing to consider in your equation, is how likely is a better outcome than a chip shot FG attempt? This takes into consideration how likely our poor offense is against a great Dee. It's 4th & almost 2. What's your probablity of converting? For us, I'd say maybe 50-50. Let's say we do convert, there's probably only about a 50-50 chance we score a TD. So you have perhaps a 25% chance of improving your outcome (granted a failed attempt likely yields better field position than the resulting KO.) relative to better than 90% of getting the 'automatic' 3 pts. (If MM thinks it's less than 90%, Lindell should have already been replaced.)

    Considering how much time was left, the 'certain' 3 was the more prudent decision.

  8. Actually, from a subjective standpoint, I think he does quite well at holding onto the ball.

    I think you'll find that a significant %age of a teams fumbles are when a QB gets sacked. When you get hit and you're not aware of someone coming, it's pretty excusable to fumble. (Unless you're protecting the ball, in which case you're not ready to throw it.)

    If he has a problem in this regard (which based on the amount of screaming I do at him, I feel he does), it's that he's not as aware of impending hits as he should be. (Yesterday's fumble being an excellent example.)

  9. I am afeared that PW might not be back. Again, certainly from the heart, I'd like to see him return, but look at what we have behind him. Edwards is pretty good & also we drafted Anderson (IIRC, our only Dee draft pick) who has seldom even been active. It seems to be TDs MO that he drafts a replacement for a player one yr b4 that player leaves.

    If PW comes at a reasonable price, I'd love to have him back, but I think JJ or at least another addition to the OL would be a better expenditure of our cap resources.

  10. It would be pretty easy to circumvent this 'feature'. The simplest would be just to leave your email client on & have it request emails every 5 minutes or so. If you're concerned about safety doing that, you could write a simple batch command or something that waited a few minutes then sent out a 'ping' request.

  11. 9. The special teams are just sick. I don't think the 49ers had one good return. We punted twice and the first time Moorman puts it OB right at the eight and the second time throws a nice pass that was dropped by Burns that would have been a first.

     

    I believe it was Preileau(sp?) that dropped that. He dropped an easy INT during scrub time recently, too. He might be a good tackler, maintain decent positioninng, but he's one of the reasons we didn't get too mant INTs last year.

  12. But all this did for McGee was make it harder to sign him to a Bills-friendly long term extension. He just made himself about 2-3 million bucks, at least.

     

    If he's not RFA 'til 2006, then this really doesn't have much impact on his value I don't think. Top notch KR don't make that much above minimum wage, maybe about $2m/yr max. Decent CBs make $5m; starting quality CBs are a bargain at $2m. He's our starting CB now & probably likely to remain so next year. How well he does at that will dictate what sort of $ he commands.

  13. If you're referring to the original model from the late 50s early 60s, I'd give a thumbs up. Although I'm not particularly familiar w/ them, from what I've read, they're a very nice meld between luxury & performance (for the time) along w/ great looks. Truly a classic.

    If you're referring to the models that are currently made, I wasn't too impressed. I test drove one a few years ago & it's drivetrain reminded me of an overstressed K-car. For that sort of money, (I thought it was like $30k), you'd expect more.

  14. f each NFL game is a 50/50 Win Loss proposition, what is the statistical probibility that Denver, Baltimore and Jax lose at least one of their final two games?

     

    I think you asked 2 questions so, I'll answer this one.

    The easiest way to visualize this is to look at the chance it doesn't occur and subtract that from 100%.

    If a team fails to lose at least one game, that means they win both. The odds of that (independent) are 25%. So the odds of them losing at least 1 is 75%.

    You want to know the odds of all happening together, that's .75*.75*.75 =27/64=~42.8%.

     

    I was a math major, BTW (concentrating in calculus, though).

     

    Also, give SDS the gold star. He got the answer 1st. I figured it was easiest to figure the answer myself than to go over which previous posts were right & which ones were wrong.

  15. We can re-sign Price very easily I think

     

    That might not be the case. Much like how I would assume we would have liked to retain Sammy Morris, Price might prefer to go someplace where he would have a chance to start.

    I guess his status largely depends on Jennings & whether or not we (& other teams) consider him a starting caliber T.

    It's unfortunate that both he & Jennings are unsigned. I'd say it's pretty important that we sign at least one.

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