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nkreed

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    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

     

    if i'm counting correctly roughly 500k votes remain and all the mail ins have been counted. trump down by 100k so the possibility exists. 

    So the rough numbers are close.  

     

    If we are using the numbers as exact, and we shouldn't, but lets runs the scenarios.

     

    Facts I'm using from NYTimes political page: 86% in, Biden has 1,410,977 votes, Trump has 1,317,468 votes.  That's a total of 2,728,445 votes and a difference of  93,509 Votes.

    Using the 86% number, the total AZ voted would be 3,172,611 (rounded up).  Remaining votes uncounted 444,166 votes.

     

    So what are the possibilities? (you can do some linear algebra to get the numbers in between)

    Trump 80%, Biden 20% of the remaining votes: Trump Gains 266,500

    Trump 75%, Biden 25%: Trump Gains 222,083

    Trump 70%, Biden 30%: Trump Gains 177,666

    Trump 65%, Biden 35%: Trump Gains 133,250

    Trump 60%, Biden 40%: Trump Gains 88, 833

    Trump 55%, Biden 45%: Trump Gains 44,417

    50/50 Not Gains

     

    So the break even for Trump needs to be 60.5% of the remaining votes, which I believe is VERY doable.  Then the Libretarian throws a 1% monkey wrench in these numbers and I'm too lazy to break that down.  

     

    • Like (+1) 1

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Muppy said:

    I do think there needs to be a consensus on wether or not votes by mail need be received by the day of the election. If you vote late and your vote isn't counted that's on YOU my friend. If you were so late in filling it out you take your ballot to the polls and drop it off or stand in line and vote traditionally

    With the amount of problems that can happen in the postal service, I respectfully disagree that votes must have been received by the deadline. I believe that requiring your mail in ballot be received by the election there are too many possibilities that can cause it to be late that are NOT on that voter. I believe it would be disenfranchisement to those who legally voted.

     

    There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with use a postmark as your decision maker. In fact many federal and state legal processes use this as their determing factor for timeliness. It shouldn't change at the whim of a party.

     

    Also, those who vote by mail who would be forced to send their vote in earlier than the election day may miss important information that comes near the end of a campaign.

    3 minutes ago, Muppy said:

     

    Perhaps making votes by mail countable before the election to hasten the process should also be a national mandate

    I would like to ask for clarification here: are you asking for reporting or just counting?

    1 minute ago, aristocrat said:

     

     

    Thank you for sharing this tweet. That's why Trump's campaign is mad at the call by AP and Fox News.

     

    Even as such, it may not be enough, but who knows. 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏽🤷🏿‍♂️ it's 2020.

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    1 minute ago, HeHateMe said:

     

    Are you more likely to wait in line for 8 hours to vote or less likely?  That's really all it comes down to.

    I think the question should rather be: At what length of time would you decide voting wasn't worth it. I would expect a lie in response, since they haven't had to make that decision....EVER. 

     

    That's different than those who face disenfranchisement annually. I would expect that those people's length of time would decrease with frequency (which is the real reason for making it tougher to vote).

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted · Edited by nkreed
    Can't spell

    12 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

    I voted yesterday in Niagara county and didn't have to wait at all.

    Yes because there are enough polling sites to allow for this. Despite your specific citation to Turk, you blatantly forget to include the rationale for the long lines.

     

    Quote

    How is standing in line voter suppression? I don't get it. I stand in line for a lot of things and never feel suppressed...

    Except when you are told "it's easy to vote" and then the lines are long. And for what personal gain? Not everyone is deep into politics and won't take the time to vote if they need to wait in line. You will stand in line for some sort of personal gain, something you'd get. Not the same.at all.

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

    Why would they stop counting votes in Philly tonight?  How does that make sense?

    They haven't.

     

    https://fusion.inquirer.com/politics/election/philadelphia-mail-ballot-counting-2020-election-20201104.html

     

    6 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

    FYI I think if there is a place to complain about Trump's reactions it is Az.  Math says he has lost there and of course they should count the remaining votes but there aren't going to be enough.

    I agree it's a poor place to make that statement.

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

    Biden's play is to see how many votes he needs to make up in PA and then start counting mail ins in Philly.  If he needs 100k he can win Philly 110k to 9k

    Really? Cause Repubs have claimed election fraud for years but can't show anything. It's non existent.

    2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

    He should definitely let them steal the election, don't you think?

    Steal, how? By allowing the process to play out?

    • Thank you (+1) 1

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:


    There’s a ton of the cities not in. Falcons stadium had a water main break that delayed a ton of votes too.

    Bovada down to -150.

    This is 100% right. According to NYT, DeKalb county is only 1/3 in.  Biden is up by 80k votes there (suburb of Atlanta). I believe that NYT is expecting that the remaining votes are mail in, therefore likely larger for Biden. That makes up ~160,000 votes in that county ALONE. Then more of the Atlanta vote is still missing, also presumed the mail in.

     

    Also they have this note:

    "So far, Biden appears to have flipped Mitchell County. According to turnout estimates, around 690,000 votes remain in counties won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump 2016 counties have around 110,000 votes left to report. 3m ago"

    Seriously though, what's up with these referees?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by nkreed

    3 hours ago, Jerome007 said:

    The illegal shift one got me steaming. It cost a TD! Sure they got it back so it didn't affect the game, but...how can they call that? Diggs was still going sideways, he didn't have to reset.

    It's because two players were moving, not a motion after being set. You're right if all players are set, but because the TE also moved, both players must reset before the snap.

    2 hours ago, OrtonHearsaWho said:

    One call...er, non call...that started things getting away from us was on the long punt return.  A blocker - right next to the returner - had a handful of jersey for a not insignificant amount of time

     

    .935937049_ScreenShot2020-10-14at10_43_41AM.png.ed9a2d3f91058ad2147408a10b597977.png

    That was egregious. The Titans player did the same thing in the next punt but got called. That penalty alone gave them at least 30 yards. (BTW the Titans held for~15 yards on that play)

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