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nkreed

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    Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

    I'd file that with agreeing to stop discriminating against Black tenants while not having to admit to having done so.

    There has been some awakening on race, by whites, since the mid 80s. I think that while there is blamed to be placed, racism was instituted well before and the policy makes in the 80's just had a different view. As America decides it's finally okay to speak about these ideas is incremental progress. Let's keep making it more of a conversation that or legislative electors understand.

    1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

    It's more of a PPP site.....and oh yeah the Bills too stuck on the side.

    But which bot is going to call me an idiot?

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    Just now, DCOrange said:

    It could be 0 votes or it could be a little under 9k. Either way, the general belief is that those votes won't help Trump. They'll likely break even or possibly help expand Biden's lead.

    Yes even at 9k votes it's that spread between the candidates that changes the leads. So a 55:45 split in favor of Trump only translates into a max 900 vote difference in change, assuming no 3rd party candidates are voted for.

     

    I am quoting you but not directing that statement at you. I just wanted to make sure that it would be hard to have 9k ballots make major changes.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted · Edited by nkreed

    11 minutes ago, snafu said:

     

    It may not be that difficult. 

    The Supreme Court put out one decision prior to the election.

    — Wisconsin wasn’t allowed to count ballots received after election day

    — They declined to hear the same issue for PA, but it is still an open case in front of SC. 

     

    So so if the Court comes back and says that PA can’t count late ballots then that changes things. I’m not sure what the GA, NC, NV, AZ rules are regarding counting ballots received after Election Day. But the point is that Trump wouldn’t have to change votes. 

     

     

    In PA all of those "late ballots" have been sequestered and have not been counted at all. It doesn't change anything. There is a BIG difference between counting those that were received after Tuesday and counting days after the election. The conservative media has purposely been blurring these lines to make it seem like the ballots counted in PA right now have been received AFTER Tuesday.

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

    Waking up to see we've given Biden a 1100 vote lead in GA!! Let's Gooooo!!

     

     

     

     

    No sarcasm detector needed, but your Desperation Detector should be screaming.

    My desperation detector broke in '16. I have been saying I needed to get a new one since. Thanks!

    20 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

    oh...he believes it alright. He believes it HARD.

    I guess Trump's team could go after Arizona, too...but they simply weren't prepared to do so. That's the state that took them by total surprise.

    Disputing the election was premeditated by them.

    I don't disagree on the disputing of the election was premeditated.

     

    At this point I don't believe that his disputes can lead to a change in these results, however.  He will need to find Federal statues to bring these disputes to the Supreme Court.

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Big Gun said:

    Only if you believe there was no ballot fraud in Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, etc

     

    The fraud is so vast, it will be exposed and Biden will not be in the WH

     

     

    My sarcasm detector hasn't been calibrated in a few hours, care to let me know if it should be going off on this post.

     

    The only thing that strikes me here as possible you believe this is that you included Arizona. It's the only state that hasn't been criticized as having been fraud by Trump. 

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    NYTimes has this on their live results for Arizona.

     

    We just received more votes from Gila County. According to turnout estimates, around 310,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 70,000 votes left to report. 3m ago

     

    So for context, however here's the 2016 map.  https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/arizona


    Maricopa was won by trump in 16.  It is likely many of those 310,000 remaining votes.  According to NYT's estimates, the MAX votes that are in all other counties would be 45,498 ballots. That would mean that ~264K votes are coming from Maricopa. I believe that its unlikely that Trump makes that up.

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

     

    Agreed.

     

    The Democrat elites need to come to grips with the fact that populism is what people from both parties want and they need to start catering more to their base, which is much farther to the left than where Biden ran. 

    The only benefit I see in them failing to do this would be a change to a Three Party System, which would help the voting process out IMMENSELY!   (IMO)

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

     

    if i'm counting correctly roughly 500k votes remain and all the mail ins have been counted. trump down by 100k so the possibility exists. 

    So the rough numbers are close.  

     

    If we are using the numbers as exact, and we shouldn't, but lets runs the scenarios.

     

    Facts I'm using from NYTimes political page: 86% in, Biden has 1,410,977 votes, Trump has 1,317,468 votes.  That's a total of 2,728,445 votes and a difference of  93,509 Votes.

    Using the 86% number, the total AZ voted would be 3,172,611 (rounded up).  Remaining votes uncounted 444,166 votes.

     

    So what are the possibilities? (you can do some linear algebra to get the numbers in between)

    Trump 80%, Biden 20% of the remaining votes: Trump Gains 266,500

    Trump 75%, Biden 25%: Trump Gains 222,083

    Trump 70%, Biden 30%: Trump Gains 177,666

    Trump 65%, Biden 35%: Trump Gains 133,250

    Trump 60%, Biden 40%: Trump Gains 88, 833

    Trump 55%, Biden 45%: Trump Gains 44,417

    50/50 Not Gains

     

    So the break even for Trump needs to be 60.5% of the remaining votes, which I believe is VERY doable.  Then the Libretarian throws a 1% monkey wrench in these numbers and I'm too lazy to break that down.  

     

    • Like (+1) 1

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Muppy said:

    I do think there needs to be a consensus on wether or not votes by mail need be received by the day of the election. If you vote late and your vote isn't counted that's on YOU my friend. If you were so late in filling it out you take your ballot to the polls and drop it off or stand in line and vote traditionally

    With the amount of problems that can happen in the postal service, I respectfully disagree that votes must have been received by the deadline. I believe that requiring your mail in ballot be received by the election there are too many possibilities that can cause it to be late that are NOT on that voter. I believe it would be disenfranchisement to those who legally voted.

     

    There is absolutely NOTHING wrong with use a postmark as your decision maker. In fact many federal and state legal processes use this as their determing factor for timeliness. It shouldn't change at the whim of a party.

     

    Also, those who vote by mail who would be forced to send their vote in earlier than the election day may miss important information that comes near the end of a campaign.

    3 minutes ago, Muppy said:

     

    Perhaps making votes by mail countable before the election to hasten the process should also be a national mandate

    I would like to ask for clarification here: are you asking for reporting or just counting?

    1 minute ago, aristocrat said:

     

     

    Thank you for sharing this tweet. That's why Trump's campaign is mad at the call by AP and Fox News.

     

    Even as such, it may not be enough, but who knows. 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏽🤷🏿‍♂️ it's 2020.

    Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted

    1 minute ago, HeHateMe said:

     

    Are you more likely to wait in line for 8 hours to vote or less likely?  That's really all it comes down to.

    I think the question should rather be: At what length of time would you decide voting wasn't worth it. I would expect a lie in response, since they haven't had to make that decision....EVER. 

     

    That's different than those who face disenfranchisement annually. I would expect that those people's length of time would decrease with frequency (which is the real reason for making it tougher to vote).

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