sherpa

Finally reported tonight. Seven killed as explosive thrown into a vehicle.

"so 3 month delay is acceptable. got it." I never said that, but you can believe what you want.

You asked for my opinion, and I responded. I have never asked for yours, and won't. Brilliantly planned and executed strike. Far reaching consequences making everything that might follow in order to prevent what everyone wants to prevent easier. Great night.

Of course they knew what they were aiming for, and evidently nailed the three spots, by all accounts. Can't do better than that, and the follow up weapons seconds apart were of extreme importance, and they nailed that as well. What happens after detonation is structural design vs. physics, and out of the strike groups hands.

I don't have a "threshold," and your question is the essence of my point. This strike had immeasurable consequences throughout the middle east, and many of those have nothing to do with actual strike damage. The fact that the US was willing to go "feet dry" into Iran and undertake an immensely impressive strike is not lost on other players. CentCom has been asking to do this for years. Deployed carrier task forces, same thing. It has always been denied. Beyond that, they not only did it, they delivered extremely accurate weapons completely undetected. Nothing fired at them. No evidence of any real clue that the Iranians even knew they were there. That is not lost on other belligerents. It is idiotic to judge the success of that strike based on how long it would take them to dig out, start over, start over in another place etc. Building a nuclear ballistic missile is really hard and leaves tracks. Those tracks are much easier to sniff out now. Spending the time and resources to build an underground enrichment and production plant was time consuming and expensive, and it is very likely severely damaged, and certainly not functioning. One the uranium is enriched, the fissile material needs to be weaponized, ie., hardened and made into something that can be delivered. Ruin that process and you stop the program. Evidently Isfahan was that location, and it is largely destroyed. My view is that it is ignorant to judge the success of the strike on how long it takes them to clean up. They are way more vulnerable and they know it. Think the remaining scientists that the Israelis didn't get are operating the same way? Anyway, when I heard Trump's initial comments I cringed, because I knew how ridiculous it was to make such a claim. I stated as much a week before this, pointing out that this bunker buster talk as a silver bullet was no guarantee and foolish speculation. It was the single best option, but you simply can't know with certainty. Very complicated warhead and fuzing, and never designed to get to the depths of Fordow, and that was well known going into this. Still, the deliveries were perfect, and I'm certain caused massive damage. Massive damage to the Iranian regime psyche and program. Good enough for me.

They didn't "hit the wrong spot." They hit exactly what was intended, and followed it up seconds later with another, again, exactly what was intended and what the physics suggested. Nonsense.

Kind of related, but not really. Events of this past weekend in Iran point to something those of us in the "business" have been saying since the movie's release. Topgun Maverick used F-18's in the defining strike. That mission was clearly meant for the B-2, and using F-18's was gross entertainment license. Anyway, vindication on that call.

The thing that gives me pause is that Trump seems to value a public victory lap over substantive results. Hopefully, the success of this will lead to some reliable prohibitions against Iran resuming. There is no evidence of that yet. In the meantime, it seems there has been a Hamas ambush today that killed a number of Israeli soldiers. Hasn't hit the media yet, but serves as a reminder of reality.

I trust Netanyahu, but I expect Israel could use a ceasefire as a respite. The IAF is just not big enough and the distances too great to continue this pace. Regarding the Iranian "regime," his kid is the odds on favorite. But, given that the regime is held up by the IRGC, when IRGC senior leadership roll call occurs, there's going to be a lot less "here" responses. Look at their actions defending the country during the strike. Was anybody running that? 'Cause not a thing happened.

The "regime" is in place in name only, which is not to say it doesn't have the ability to re-emerge. Scores of the power folks have been killed. The leader is in a bunker somewhere, an 86 year old cancer surviving lunatic who has lost countless supporters. This strike was immensely successful on so many levels. Of course they will try to continue their useless nuclear goals, but they've just lost their three major facilities, at least for some time. They have an estimated one half trillion dollars of spent cost in the program and in supporting their three major proxies, who have suddenly disappeared. They have been exposed as a useless military, unable to even respond in most basis terms to an invasion of their airspace and the destruction of their prized hundred billion dollar underground effort. They can evidently do nothing about it, except perhaps sleeper cells, which nobody know about. Remember last week when two people here expressed angst that they could close the Strait of Hormuz? One actually stated it cause a major recession. Remember who stated that was unlikely? That strike was a spotlight on the bullsttuff that is the Iranian "regime," and no matter what people on this forum think, that reality is not lost on Gulf states and others who feared them.

The evidence is what I laid out. As to the "why now," I think it is obvious, and it isn't strictly my opinion, it's from listening to countless discussions with Israeli officials, mostly ex ambassadors and others involved in dealing with this while living there and undergoing these relentless attacks. To respond to the question, I think the Oct 7 2023 inhumane barbarism started it. Prior to that, things were kind of quiet by local standards. Hamas and the Palestinians enjoyed employment within Israel and the Israelis mistakenly thought that at long last there could be some kind of coexistence. Then we witness the most barbaric attack in modern history. Babies killed, families butchhered and filmed, and a host of other unimaginable atrocities. Israel responds by attempting to finally eliminate Hamas, which is nothing more than a murderous org taking intl relief and converting it into an underground weapons delivery system. Hezbollah chips in, and hundreds of thousands of Israelis have to leave northern Israel. The entire country is involved in supporting their defense. The economy is no longer functioning with so many displaced and so many reservists away from their usual careers. Hamas gets set back and then the brilliance of Hezbollah getting severely castrated by the beeper thing. Syria collapses, as the Israelis use that to destroy existing air defenses and create a corridor through there to Iran. That was a big deal, and I pointed that out at the time. Now you have a very reduced capability from Hamas and Hezbollah, and the Iranian weapons program still a major threat. Not just nuc procurement, but a massive ballistic missile capability. Guess what? They've got a clear path to Tehran after decades of threatened and backed up murder. They've had scores of human assets inside Iran preparing for this moment for years, and the activated them, building drone launchers and other offensive weapons from within. Air defense eliminated, The timing was perfect, as was the execution. It is the dream scenario for the west, the middle east countries wanting to live in peace and anyone else who is sick and tired of the worst regime on earth.

No. Just 45 years of evidence. Of course there's the Embassy seizure with 444 days of hostages, Beirut Marine Barracks, Kobar Towers, providing Iraq and Afghan insurgencies with IED's that killed and maimed over a thousand US troops. Destroying any gov in Lebanon while launching attacks from Syria and using it as a conduit to funnel weapons to attack Israel. Funding, training and supporting Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis to kill Israelis and disrupt an well as sink unarmed commercial shipping. Pursuing a nuclear weapon against the backdrop of claiming intent to eradicate Israel and The US. What an amazing failure that this or any other president has not been able to negotiate with them.

Energy independence is the insurance policy against blackmail, as happened in Carter's 70's with the emerging belligerence of OPEC. These days, we buy energy and sell energy in the open market using simple business decisions. The backdrop is that we go go it alone, so we can't be as impacted by threats. The problem with the middle east is that the hatreds there have the ability to lead to regional conflagration, and that would be immensely impactful. That's why this is such a once in a lifetime opportunity. Imagine no Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and Syria not launching weapons into civilian areas of Israel. Imagine Israel able to peacefully coexist with Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon Iran, Saudi Arabia and others. Advanced commerce without constant threat and disruption. All of these assets wasted on trying to kill each other spent my responsible govs on advancing their people.

Absolutely not true.

I don't pay any attention to that guy, but the claim is in gross disagreement with their own statements. Oh well.

This is way beyond energy guarantees. That issue has been largely de-weaponized. Disruptions would have short term effect, but nothing like the old days. The elimination of a rogue regime that has been at war with us for 45 years, killing thousands, and has an expressed intent of eliminating Israel and the US could prevent many future wars. Removing their military offensive capability is doable. Regime change is on their people though. Want to live in peaceful coexistence, or want to pursue some wacky religious 12th Imam end times strategy?

I'm not interested in pretending anything. Least of all your fantasies or judgements on this stuff. Believe what you want. Not my concern.

There are a few things I care absolutely nothing about regarding this. First, Dems complaining about consultation and approval. All Presidents have done the same thing, and the efficacy of the operation would have been in great jeopardy. Second, anything from the useless UN. Just give up. Nobody pays attention. Third, anything from John Bolton who I think has lost his mind and probably calls news outlets begging to get his comments paid any attention to.

Ya. I'm completely confident that my view on redeploying Nimitz is correct. Been there, done that. Same waters. South China Sea through Straits of Malacca, then same airspace, same enemy.

If you are an Iranian mine layer, you have the life expectancy of a lab rat. If they bag a tanker using a mussel, we have an entirely new seafood industry to deal with. But that's another subject. 'Houston....We've got a bivalve mullusc problem."

Are you capable of basic understanding? Vance correctly noted that the US is not actively engaged in regime change. Trump is opining why such a thing wouldn't occur if the gov is no longer serving its people. Not externally forced, but a natural consequence like 1776.

No surprise here. You post a theory and then claim "foul" based on the denied theory being true. All evidence points otherwise. Nimitz would not have suddenly been redeployed to the IO resulting in a five day delay, if the US would have "known." They would have been there. Believe whatever you want, just don't state the belief as fact.

Sometimes the most obvious answer is the correct one. The US did not know, thank God, of Israeli strike plans that were so incredibly successful. To design a strike as complicated as what we just pulled off takes an immense amount of planning and coordination. That takes time, and that detailed planning is what allowed the execution to be so successful. I fully doubt the Russia/Tehran (IRGC), suggestion re the Strait of Hormuz in your post. I don't think it's at all likely. The IRGC has been decapitated.

Simply a brilliantly executed strike. Immensely difficult to coordinate all of these players, and there were so many. Exposes the comment made here last week that there was no interaction between the Pentagon and the WH. I remember reading that and shaking my head at the gross ignorance that claim. Just the tanking plan alone must have been incredible complicated as well as the timing of the "sweep" packages to clear the way and ensure the weapon deliverers were not engaged. Deconflicting many strike axis and precise timing of so many separate packages. I am looking forward to a detailed explanation of the scope. In the meantime, I sure hope the B2's get back to Knob Noster MO. safely. Well done.

When you say "strike," I assume you mean missile launches, unless they still have some cells inside Iraq that could somehow penetrate US defenses. I honestly believe one of the reasons for the dramatic decrease in Iranian ballistic missile launches against Israel is because they are keeping a number in reserve for potential use against US forces in the region. If they do that, we will have two carriers in place by Sunday, and a host of incredibly capable Air Force assets, and I would unleash that capability within an hour, and completely eliminate whatever military they have left, along with the nuc facilities. No talk.