appoo

So was Richard Sherman when he went to the Niners, and he responded with two really good seasons. I'd be all in on Peterson

exactly. When they’re not allowed to cheat, it’s a very average defense

Yea, excellent point. I hadn't realized he was so checked out. I think 5M would be the cutoff for me (Edge defenders tend to be really expensive), but anything more and I think you're using too much cap for someone who's such an enigma. It's an interesting philosophical discussion. One of the ways college teams counter elite programs with blue chip recruited defenders, is with tempo. Not just how fast you snap, but how quickly you release the ball. When a QB is throwing the ball in less than 3 seconds, getting a sack is almost out the question. I've been noticing some of that show in the NFL these days. When that happens, just moving him off his base and delaying him half a second is basically a win, and that's where someone like Jerry Hughes adds a ton of value. Guys who win their matchup in the first 2 seconds. It's an evolving game, and we might need better metrics.

That's a fair critique

Clowney is still a disruptive player, even if he doesn't get sacks. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/10/jadeveon-clowney-pressures-no-sacks-titans He tends to grade well without those stats. Right now he's a younger version of the current Jerry Hughes. You could do well to get him for about 5M

If the Texans cut him then yes (He doesn't have a dead cap number). Which they should do if they're rebuilding, to give him an opportunity to win now. Even then, he;s looking at a minimum of Mario Addison money. 3 years 30M. Though the Bills end up saving 10M by cutting Mario. You're basically trading him for Mall Milano (which I would do without hesitation). He still had a pretty good PFF grade for his 2020 season

Watch out for the Ravens, who have very little in Cap space tied to LB, only really who run a 3-4 (Milano is basically a perfect 3-4 ILB), can cut the aging LJ Fort and save 2.3M, though they do have to replace Judon, Ngakou (either of whom I'd love with Buffalo), Willie Snead and Derek Wolf, They also have about 20M in cap space to mess around with. So they'll be looking for an EDGE and WR first, but perhaps sneak in Milano as well.

They'll have a similar dilemma as the Bills, which is do you pay two backers big money? Because they're going to have to pay Darius Leonard, who's entering his final year on his rookie contract.

What I mean about man coverage is that Edmunds would drop into his zone, he'd actually recognize the play and attempt to pick up Kelce, and then lose him - either because Mahomes moved him, or Kelce lose him with his footwork. I was wrong to call it man coverage, agree with that, and I don't think I disagree with you on Edmunds' weakness here, which goes beyond dropping and reacting, but picking up nuance.

sorry, I'm not trying to be an ahole here, just disagreeing with you. There's a lot of areas that the Bills can improve, and one of those areas is Edmunds in man coverage. Once he got healthy he was close to an elite run defender, and an above average zone coverage backer. Where he needs to get better is in man (which Kelce exploited), and getting better at rushing the passer (he really should be better than he is, considering his athletecism). But in the narrative of the off-season, a large part has to do with paying either Milano or Edmunds or both - Edmunds seems to get blamed for a lot of things that either he's not responsible for, and in the case of AFCCG, wasn't out of the realm of expectations given the opponent and how well they were playing. If I'm Beane & McDermott, Edmunds isn't what I'm trying to fix this off-season, and Milano @ 12-14 he'll need to stay is over resourcing Linebacker, when you should be using that money to find an elite EDGE, another EDGE and a starting 2nd corner.

Edmunds rarely gave up plays against the Colts. Most of the damage the Colts did was outside the Backers zone. So you're blaming him for something that wasn't his responsibility.

He was going up against an elite DT who never had to think about the running back going past him.

It wasn't atrocious. First of all, Tre has been probably the best Bills defender for the 2nd half of the season, including playoffs, up till the Chiefs. Second of all, he was fine in run support. Finally, the only reason he looked "bad" was because of possibly the greatest TE in the history of the game, playing with one of the greatest QBs, to ever take a snap, supported by elite speed at WR, and a legit running game, and not having any real pass rush. Criticizing him for looking "bad" against Kelce in that particular offense with that particular set of offensive coaching, is like blaming me for looking bad in a game of chess, against Bobby freakin Fischer. The opponent matters. There's not a linebacker in the NFL who's going to look good, when the Chiefs offense, and specifically Travis Kelce, are cooking.

Darron Lee is perhaps the Bills' insurance against Milano leaving, is McDermott is married to his system. He's basically the poorer version of Milano, though perhaps with more athletic upside, as Lee has tested better than Milano

I think a lot of you are underestimating how hard it is to find linebackers who are good enough to be on the field on all 3 downs, and be a strength in all phases of coverage, run support and pass rush. I don't think the Bills should pay Milano, because I'd rather have Edmunds and think it's a waste of cap space to have two highly paid field generals, but that doesn't mean Milano isn't deserving of it. He's very good. And his skill set isn't all that common

When the Bills go 5-2, they use basically a Will and a Mike, but not really an outside backer. McDermott's system isn't really a 4-3. He has that package to deploy though, as he uses it the rare times Klein is on the field. The NFL is pass happy, but when you have 2 top notch backers, I think McDermott's scheme is awesome. Having a backer who can cover a huge amount of space, blitz, and still play the run is a real weapon, and when you have 2, it's like having a Unicorn defense. That's why the Bills are almost always in a 5-2. Literally, I don't think the Bills have run a dime look this year. The Chiefs used that as their primary defense against the Bills last weekend. realize "5-2" can be confusing. What I'm meaning is a 4-2-5.

So this is the downside of McDerott's system, which uses 2 Backers on he field almost all the time. You gotta PAY 2 backers who can be 3 down backers in any situation, AND be able to have them blitz. Those dudes are rare, and you usually find them in the first round (it's why Micah Parsons is gonna go in the first). There is an excellent argument to be made to let one of Edmunds or Milano go, and then switch to a tradtional 4-3. have a traditional Mike, and traditional Sam/Will backers, who you ask to be more run stuff + flat + blitz off the edge. Those guys are cheaper, and then when you have pure pass downs, fields 6 DBs, and on hybrid situations, you can still run a nickel to be able play both run and pass. AJ Klein can be your 2nd backer on 3rd and 5, if the opposition is in 11 personnel. You can let Edmunds cover the middle and Klein run the flats. What you can't ask him to do is play a huge zone on 3rd and 10. Right now the Bills basically split the field between Edmunds and Milano, and that works against the non-elite TE teams. Milano should be an Alpha dog MLB on a defense. The Bills D requires 2. Let him go and get paid elsewhere, adjust your base system so you don't need 2 super talented backers.

That's a great point. I think my basic point is that Moore's speed is going to be an asset, even if it's not elite. But the other parts of his game is what really makes him a legit weapon. A small part of me wishes the Bills took KJ Hamler in the last draft. Probably more valuable to the Bills than AJE in the next few years.

Another here. With Moore it's the combo of excellent speed, shiftiness and pure strength. He's an incredibly powerful runner.

Moore hit a 4.33 40 at the Opening, which is laser timed. His speed isn't a question here.

He's got plenty of speed. He's kind of a complete package. Just watch his feet move. He doesn't have Tyreke Hill speed (no one does) but he's plenty fast

elite speed, runs like a RB after the catch. Undersized....these are usually boom/bust prospects. I'm not sure he'd be available in the 3rd when the Bills pick, but if he's there mid-3rd, I would support a move up to get him

Wish the Bills were in a position to draft Micah Parsons. He's basically tailor made for McDermott's system. A true plug and play backer.

Milano's value to Buffalo is probably higher than what it would be to most defenses, because of the system McDermott runs. Buffalo runs a 5-2 system, and we almost ALWAYS have 2 LBs on the field every play. So those 2 LBs have to be able to run sideline-to-sideline, drop in coverage, tackle efficiently, and be an effective blitzer. Losing Milano means you'll probably have to move to a true base 4-3, and figure if you're going to use a dime rather than nickel in passing situations. It might be easier to find a 4th corner or safety who can cover and play the run, than a 2nd backer who can cover and do all the things Milano can

So, cutting Mitch Morse, Mario Addison, John Brown, Jerry Hughes and Vernon Butler saves the Bills 33M, and has them at 35M of cap space. If you assume 178M (we carry over 3M from 2020) that leaves you with 36 players. Add 8 draft picks, assume 2 of them goto the practice squad/cut, and you have 42 players, so need to add 12 more. Of the Bills F/As, they'll likely want to bring back Feliciano, Daryll Williams, Milano, Andre Roberts and Isiah McKenzie. Feliciano might get moved to Center, but he'll get guard money. And perhaps James Carpenter as a reasonable analog? So that's 5.5M in a cap hit Williams won't get Mitchell Schwartz money, so we'll give him a 7M cap hit Milano is your big hitter here, he won't get Mosley money, and perhaps not close to it...but I'd put hi, between 7-10M cap hir range, but lets be generous to the Bills and say 7 We'll give Andre Roberts a 2M cap hit, and Boettger might get you a 2M hit as well. So now, we're upto 40 rostered players + 6 draft picks = 46. Of our 35M in space we've used up 25M, which the Bills need to sign 8 players. First, elevate Dane Jackson (CB), Kenny Stills (WR), Trey Adams (OT), and Antonio Williams (RB/ST) to first team contracts. These are all depth players. adding about 4M total to the cap. Down to 19. From here, the Bills need - either from draft or F/A Guard EDGE CB RB And then backups from several other positions. Without some serious magic it's going to be tough for the Bills to sign anyone signifcant in F/A, assuming the Cap stays at 175M.