Hplarrm

Sorry John (since I respect and share a number of your opinions) but the OL does suck in a significant number of ways. This does not mean that it blows entirely as there are a number of prospects for solid play to work with. However, it does demonstrably in terms of objective evidence suck in a number of ways that MUST be improved for the OL play to be reasonably considered adequate (much less a positive force which other teams must prepare and adjust for so they do not get run over rather than adjust for to take advantage of the myriad problems with the unit. Specifically: 1. Looking at things positively number of players currently on the roster can be reasonably expected to develop so that there are 4 current players on the roster who can be expected to give us the 5 OL starters we need at a minimum. This is possible but a rose-colored glasses view at best though as this assumes that POTENTIAL future prospects like Bell and Wang do in fact develop adequately, that Hamgartner is neither injured or hangs on, and that these positives not only happen but no negatives happen (as actually a solid OL really needs 6 players with the last one being flexible in position play so with a shift all positions are covered with one back-up- this back-up need not be able to spell Gs, Ts, and C but offer enough flexibility that by plugging him in at his best position it allows you to move the player he replaces who also is flexible into the slot missing. Right now in my humble opinion the situation is this: LT- Bell- a potential prospect but really a raw talent who draws a few too minute false start and ocaissional holding calls which are drive killers at bad times. Is a prospect as he actually does quite well at one of the most critical LT functions which is playing on an island against the opponents best rusher. However, in addition to sometimes bad penalties the blocking scheme tends to need to shift his way to help out on run blocks to his side. Can he develop into an adequate LT? Maybe, but this spot is a big candidate for getting a player who can improve this position on his own and add value to this team. G- Wood- A player any Bills fan should be proud of as he not only demonstrates the grit which makes one love an OL player but he has the ability to play and start at C with only a little more experience and his comeback from a horrendous injury which ended his rookie campaign was simply phenomenal. We are hoping for and demanding a lot from him but it is possible he might do it and is a player whom even if he fails to meet all of our goals for great play (it is reasonably hoped the injury was just a one-off piece of bad luck and it would take another serious injury to worry much about him being injury prone as objectively he is not) and he is a great guy to root for even if he does not achieve our great hopes. C- Hamgartner- the most important player on our OL right now as his experience and good line calls because he understands the roles of solid play at each position and also seems to have a good knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of his fellow OL players, QB, and blitz pick-up guys allows this OL to function at times at a higher level than the raw talent or experience of the young players would predict. However. make no mistake that he is a good enough player that he is more than a very good stop gap at C and we all hope that Wood not only learns from Hamgartner but becomes the more talented player we need at C. If all things work out well then Hamgartner and Wood will just flip roles giving us great knowledge at the less demanding guard role but giving us equal knowledge but a better player with Wood at C. G- Levitre- Solid young player who MIGHT develop into the positive force we want in an OL which is a weapon (as it was in the Kent Hull K-Gun days (rather than needing top performance from every OL player to merely be adequate. He is not there yet as he still will sometimes make young talented player mistakes and Hamgartner needs to cover for him a bit as the blocking must shift his way due to poor or inconsistent tackle play (which causes Levitre to have to do more than just his job at G). However, while it would be rose-colored glasses to expect more from this youngster it is reasonably possible. T- Green- The case that losing him might actually improve performance of this unit (even without his heir apparent identified on the depth chart speaks volumes to his inadequacy and that even if Bell develops we need another starting tackle on this team speaks volumes. This unit does suck which is actually demonstrated by how much better it performs with an inadequate QB (Fitzy has smarts but simply is not physically gifted enough be more of a threat than a weakness as starting QB. His knowledge and feel for the game really helps a lot as he seems to sense where the blitz is coming from and which OL player is going to have a brain fart this time so that the worse outcomes are often avoided and good things might even happen when he bails out and turns a sack into a gain of a few yards. The Os far more productive play with a smarter and tougher QB (despite Fitzy being less athletically gifted than Edwards- Gailey admitted being fooled by the Edwards bait and switch by cutting him) is actually an objective demonstration of the problems and unltimate suckitude if this OL. Overall, this unit not only needs two players (a T and a swing guy) to be reasonably considered adequate, but it MUST have an experienced and confident QB in order to be even considered adequately effective on O (the improvement in production shifting from the talented but gun shy in terms of positive play calling and execution of Edwards to the smarter but less gifted Fitzy demonstrates this. In order for the OL to not only achieve the needed adequacy but become the weapon we need, this unit not only needs at least a player and a half but also needs the time to achieve consistency. This sucks in my book.

Locker or quite frankly any rookie QB would likely have little future playing with this Bills team. I think the facts are: 1. The Bills OL is so disrupted and is a couple of players who are not currently on the team away from being an acceptable OL that a premium if gonna have to be placed on having a vet QB who can recognize as best he can where zone blitzes are coming from and help the C make line calls for blocking schemes. A rookie even if very talented will not be able to do this. 2. A Peyton Manning like quick release is gonna be essential with this OL and even the rookie Manning developed this skill and did not have it as a rookie. The greater likelihood among rookie QB is to find even if he is a gamer like a Clausen he will need a ton of work to develop a pro release. 3. Gailey has demonstrated the ability to get playoff level production out of some pretty average to bad QBs like Fiedler and I think that Mr. Ralph will do all he can to avoid guaranteeing 10s of millions to a QB who even if he proves to be skilled enough to be a winner in the 50/50 boom or bust world of franchise QB picks he is gonna go cheap if he can.

My apologies actually for the lack of punctuation. I usually write as a mechanism for thinking things through and do not edit. I will try to be a bit more disciplined though as thoughtful comments back help me think things through and even change my opinions. My apology also for the Marchibroda firing error. He was not canned buy also pretty clearly did not see eye to eye with Marv. I think the general fact is still true though that the Bills O suffered in redzone production when Marv insisted on calling these plays after the demise of Ted.

I hop you are right that we trade the #1 if we have it because it is most likely to be a QB (Luck appears to be the leading choice right now but maybe last month's flavor can't miss choice will play himself into being next month's hemline being up or down. As I see it the Bills are almost certainly going to chase after some rookie to be the next Jim Kelly (certainly Mr, Ralph exercising his owner's right to meddle even though he has proven time and again he may be a great concrete pourer or investor but the man does not have a good football brain. He also has repetitively had toxic relationships with the men he hired to run the Bills ship of state (fired Polian who correctly is given lead credit for hiring a bunch of great players, coaches. and scouts who Marv is correctly given credit for managing these dynamic personalities- outside of his non-fatal firing of Marchibroda and silly misadventures in the redzone where he insisted on control and never equalled the great playcalling of Marchibroda in the red zone), Butler who played him to not negotiate a contract during the season and left us high and dry to run to sunny SD, and then had to fire TD when he failed to manage the bad tendencies he developed after getting run out of Pitts by the man he hired. Add to that the toxic relationships he has had with some of his coaches like his foolish attempt to welch on his agreement with Wade-o and being such a bad owner that Mularkey walked away from a huge contract rather than coach for him. IMHO it will be near impossible for a first year QB to lead this team to win an SB as: 1. He will need to read NFL Ds will in order to resd the exotic run blizes other teams will employ against a young OL thst simply is going to challenge our O with, If the blocking schemes led by new players not even on the OL this year will need to be acquired and then chemistry built between them means our QB had better be experienced enough to pick up the slack for our OL or he will likely be killed next year. 2. He will need to have a quick release as fast as that as a Peyton Manning or he will be hit and hit hard repeatedly. Even P. Manning was not P. Manning yet as a rookie. Some folks for example showed little football sense by advocating hard the Bills take Jim Clausen, I agree he is a gamer and a great guy to root for but his slow release which will improve over time would get him killed with this Bills team and as the current OL play only shows how much we need at least one if not two new OL players who are not Bills yet demonstrates that the next QB will nor only have seen a large number of pro Ds to make up for poor blocking but will need to have a quite windup like a vet. 3. He will need to be able to ignore the local media and few loud but local fans who will demand the impossible of any player at QB not to mention a 1st round drafted QB, I simply doubt that the Buffalo media and fan base are mature enough to allow any rookie QB to grow or even survive. We either need to take the next Bruce Smith if offered in this draft or the next Tony Boselli (though even the LT will often be on an island from time to time though the blitz pick-up RB and good reads by a vet QB will help him. However though this a team game the QB does handle the ball on virtually every O snap and it is incredibly doubtful any rookie QB can prosper in his first year or even survive with a learning OL and with this local talk meisters, I hope like heck that unless a player in the trenches merits a low pick that we trade this resource for value.

My sense is that though Mr. Ralph may have been right in his analysis and thus cast his vote based on the discrepancy between big owners vs. small owners that this does not mean Tagliaboo-boo was wrong as I think he and Mr. Ralph actually had the same analysis. Tags argued for agreement with the CBA because the analysis which he and Mr. Ralph likely shared saw the NFL as a collective making far more $ with the CBA than without it. The NFL tends to go where the money is thus they voted 30-2 to sign the CBA. 30 owners made the right decision for them because even getting 39.50% meant making gobs more money than getting 100% of 0 income is the players went on strike. Sure there is the potential that the NFL might go with some version of "Replacement Player II" in an attempt to replicate the lockout of the mid-80s when the owners kicked the AFL-CIO style the NFLPA went with. However, the ironic comeuppance of the NFL is that they had been able to pass along all the training costs of a minor league to college football (in many cases to taxpayers who absorb virtually all the costs of training players at Football U state schools like U. Nebraska). NFL owners joined with the NFLPA to restrain the rights of individual to sell their services to the highest bidder (AKA the American Way)through the draft and even restrained the rights of adults to participate in a free market by restricting the draft to men whose senior class would have graduated (whether they went to college or not, However, by living off this gravy train rather than buying (and thus educating and buying the loyalty of teenagers like the MLB or NHL, they instead dealt with making deals with adults (even worse for them a talented tenth of these adults became Gene Upshaw and other player leaders who understood and agreed with the tactics of smart NYC lawyers who proposed that the NFLPA would actually gain the most leverage over the owners by threatening to dissolve themselves. This would take away the union as a willing conspirator to restrain and regulate trade and force the individual owners into a true free market where they negotiated individual personal services contracts with individual players. The team owners ran kicking and screaming to accept the first true CBA. They did negotiate the salary cap coming from a designated gross (which did not include premium seats so owners like Mr. Ralph were happy to give up seats for 5,000+ fans they had to split the income with the players to get a fewer # of premium seats they got to keep 100% of the take from. The NFLPA was even willing to accept this as under the new CBA they like the owners would make more money than they ever thought possible (by assuring the TV nets of a product without labor disruption the nets agreed to deals worth billions for team owners). Going back to the title of the thread in terms of what this means for Luck. The great likelihood is that there will be no work stoppage. There is too much money in selling the product to stop producing the product. It is a negotiation however so each side will need to make a show of being ready to win a work stoppage and there may even be a short interruption if both sides miscalculate. However, in the end, my sense is that too many of the owners are paying debt service on loans they took to buy or intelligently manage paying for this asset and the banks will not stop requiring payment simply because income is down or out, Further, the networks need product so they can sell beer and other ads and with no product or an inferior product income to the NFL will dry up. The players will also face tough times as their huge salaries will also dry up. However, they have had tons of lead time (the key move the owners made in the 80s was to lock the players out before they had collected cash for regular season rather than the AFL-CIO led NFLPA plan to strike after the regular season when their members were flush and deny the NFL and nets playoff income- the owners then launched the replacement player move which threatened the players with loss of their jobs and the NFLPA came crawling back. Now however, not only are the athletes smarter (men like Takeo Spikes and Troy Vincent going of to Wharton in the off-season) that most of these too rich athletes have planned for the stoppage. There are always Pac-Man type idiots who will not prepare but even they with a work stoppage will go collect money from WWE or card shows and other idiots like Travis Henry will go get arrested. The big wildcard in this is that if the owners refuse to play the players I do not think it will take a bunch of time for the cream of NFL athletes to form their own league and compete with the NFL which is unilaterally under the CBA suspending the agreement. Luck actually just needs to wait for reality and then make decisions.

In general the financially controlled media spin machine with all of its talk about death taxes and the like gace a lot of folks convinced that the guvmint is gonna take all your money in taxes and the rest when you die when actually the system is set up so that with only a modicum of knowledge and not heavy lifting by lawyers one can fairly easily avoid losing all your money if your bank goes elfoldo or even when you die you have to be a fool not to arrange your estate so that you controlled how it is divided evem though you are dead. Such is the case with the Bills and Mr. Ralph. If he chooses to arrange things to meet his desires from beyond the grave there are several different methods he can chose between for giving his heirs big bucks, giving Buffalo fans a team to root for (if he wishes), builds whatever legacy he chooses, leaves control of the team with whom ever he dictates etc, While Mr. Ralph has clearly shown that he has little clue as to how to build a good football team (as shown by our 0 for a decade playoff less streak) no one can mistake Ralph for not being a financial wizard. Unless he so dictates there is no way this team will simply go too the highest bidder.

Very good game in a losing cause for Johnson and it is truly something a Bills fan can be hopeful about! However! Before we get our panties up in a wad with a declaration we have found our #2 WRm remember that this one productive game basically doubled his season torals, A chunk of it came during garbage time when coverage was lose and even more skewed than normal toward stopping the HR to Evans and though the game notebook had him haul in a record for him of 5 passes they had him be the target of 6 throws at least one of them was the bad droppsie cited by others, One good game may simply be an isolated episode, Even two good games might be a coincidence. We would need to see stellar performance in at least 3 games before we declare this a trend. This is particularly true when last season saw downturns for Johnson in catches, yards and appearances. I hope he does turn into a reliable productive WR but he has a long way to go before he is clearly a competent #2 WR who makes Evans a better receiver because Johnson's play make it impossible to dt Evans.

I think the answer to the question as to whether the Marv drafts killed the Bills is Emphatically NO. This is not a defense of the clearly demonstrable lack of results provided by the players Marv drafted. The answer is emphatically no because even a fatal wound dealt to an already dead body does not kill it. The Bills as a team were already dead by the time Marv was put in charge. His leading the team when they added Jauron merely played with a rotting corpse of a team that was dealt mortal and ultimately fatal blows before Marv was wheeled in out of retirement and the HOF to prop up Mr. Ralph's team (and as with any indictment of Marv, TD, Butler or Polian the buck stops with the big guy who writes the checks. My sense of the actual answer to the question of what killed the Bills is: Wound 1: Mr. Ralph fires Polian- A grievous wound as the man most responsible for assembling the great teams of the early 90s was let go by Mr. Ralph apparently due to some perceived snipe by Polian at a member of Mr. Ralph's family. A bad football move but understandable as ragging on the boss's family is generally not tolerated. Polian is a great football guy (and proved himself to be one of the best by not only assembling the Bills but winning an SB with Indy. Serious but not a killer as shown by the team getting back to the SB post Polian with a team which was clearly Butler's (which ironically is also a tribute to Polian since he hired Butler but this was a clear post-Polian team). Wound 2: Butler leaves the team high and dry and Mr. Ralph justifiably but with horrible results fires Bum's kid for giving up publicly while the Bills were still mathematically in it (a horrible lesson was pointed out when an Indy team with the same record as when Wade-O said No mas! made the playoffs. Still this was a mortal wound due to the manner in which Butler left and it clearly involved Mr. Ralph as a prime participant in this debacle even though the actual torching of the Bills body was caused by Butler (who not only refused to re-negotiate during the season and then summarily left for sunny CA taking some Bills quality with him, but arguably tanked his last draft with the selection of bust Erik Flowers as his #1. Leaving in the manner he did was actually the mortal wound in my book that signaled the death of great teams of the 90s. Again, there is plenty of blame to honestly go around here (Butler only escapes a lot of derision here because he is dead) but the buck not only stops at Mr. Ralph's door as the owner but he clearly meddled in decisions which the pro football guys should have made which he messed up (one might argue to what extent he is culpable for errors like the dumb contract given to RJ and the way the Flutie deal was set-up so that when he played as we hoped we were then forced to extend him and still have an untenable cap hit for the QB position. The fact is only Mr. Ralph could make the handshake deal- which publicly ignored the salary cap and it is my guess part of the reason his HOF honor got stalled- with Jimbo which was a blatant miscalculation of how much he had left as a player. This mortal wound is on Mr. Ralph. Wound 3: You actually have to give the guy in charge some credit because even though the dismissal of Butler/Wade was a fatal wound (compounded by M. Ralph tilting at windmills trying to keep the last year of Wade's contract even though the Bills like it or not signed the entire deal they fired him from- the canning may have been justified after Wade-O gave up before the fat lady sang but still the Bills owed Phillips under the contract Mr. Ralph signed). The hiring of TD was a very nice move as he was a man who clearly had the requisite football knowledge for a GM and he was available having been booted from Pitts. He made great use of his last year still under contract by getting a job with the media which allowed him to still collect Pitts money but still be in the game collecting info and building contacts on someone else's dime). A great get in a horrible situation after the Butler mortal wound. However, though Mr. Ralph did a nice job of applying the paddles to shock a body without a heartbeat, he still messed up dealing with the dead body by completely failing to manage TD properly as an employee. Perhaps stung by the duplicity of Butler he simply turned over the car keys to TD giving him unprecedented power. TD then made some pretty outstanding deals (his stealing a 1st from Arthur Blank for Peerless was negotiating art) but he seemed to still be exercising the demons brought to him in getting fired by a guy he hired in Pitts. He hired an HC, GW, who in retrospect was clearly not ready for primetime. He then seemed to exercise power in a manner designed to protect himself from not getting Cowhered again rather than building a winner. TD used the paddles to restore a heartbeat to a dead body but seemed to have such fun restarting the heart he then put the paddles on the brain of the corpse and got canned for shocking the body again. Wound Four: Marv comes out of retirement. His drafts were actually not bad in the immediate term (Whitner for example filled a clear need for this team which had been left by the TD reign of error and proved to be the best safety taken in this draft even though he was the second safety taken, but he turned out to be simply a good starter and not a Pro Bowl quality player- likewise, the McCargo pick was a clear miss by Marv but this only emphasizes that their much later pick of Williams was an impressive piece of work). Still despite a nice start, a draft which produced nice starter work from picks such as Simpson, Ellison, and the afore mentioned Williams did not have any staying power. However, I would claim clearly that this Marv draft did not kill the Bills because the body was already twice if not thrice dead due to Mr. Ralph proving to be a poor manager of employees such as TD, Butler, and Polian. You honestly need to give Mr. Ralph credit for making a great buy at a cheap price for the Bills and holding this asset while its value sky-rocketed. He could have left and he did not and we have to be grateful for that. However, along with this honest praise must come honest indictment as his poor management killed the great 90s Bills team.

The immediate question facing the Bills though is not answered by the question of whether QBs prove to be busts or not but actually whether the QBs drafted helped the team which drafted them win an SB. The problem for the Bills is not simply a raw assessment of the quality of the particular players but it is that after 10 playoffless years, the legacy of a team which has yet to replace its HOF star Jimbo, and Mr. Ralph continually exercising his owners right to meddle and making poor football decisions (only he could make the salary cap ignoring handshake deal with Kelly that made the poor football judgment that Jimbo would last, he had to know or should have known that the guaranteed contract they gave RJ set the Bills up for salary cap disaster when RJ proved injury prone and Flutie performed as we wanted in a back-up role, he publicly made pro-start RJ statements after he mopped up an Indy team that quit trying after an injury in the end of season game and like it or not RJ did not lead the team to enough points to win, he either signed off on or should have known the Hobert decision was panicked idiocy, etc). The Bills it is to be hoped do not draft a QB in the first because it is pretty doubtful that the media and a small vocal part of the fan base will give any QB a chance to make mistakes and learn the game, In essence we need to invest as little as possible into finding our franchise QB as likelihood (well over 50% based on the numbers he is likely to be a bust and worse even if he is the next Brett Favre or Steve Young we are likely to run this future HOF player out of town with a premature judgment of failure by the local media. The facts are these: Most QBs picked tend to be busts (perhaps no more than other positions but the question for us is what will be the implications if Mike Williams turns out to be a bust can you potentially find a UDFA like Peters to replace him or is it more or less likely that you will find a Peters or a Kurt Warmer. My sense is that a bad LT can be covered up a bit with max protect or greater emphasis on blitz pick-up but a bad QB is harder to deal with. Even if you are as likely to find a great player at any position, the fact simply is that the bar is so high at QB that HOF players like Favre and Young can be given up on or that players who prove to be able to lead a team to an SB win like Dilfer or Brad Johnson are declared busts. We do not have a situation here where a QB even as talented as Peyton Manning would be given the time to develop or a team so good that RoboQB provides the final key element, Drafting a QB on the first will almost certainly be a disaster for this team.

The basis of the argument is the simple fact which you and others have failed to state facts that while the chances of getting a franchise QB for your team in "aisle 8" are astronomically small, the chances of drafting one in round one are also astronomically small. Also, in fact the two real world examples in the modern (salary cap) era of teams actually drafting their franchise QB who QB's ed the team to an SB win were Peyton Manning and RoboQB. Neither of these two real world examples are relevant to the Bills situation (or so you endorse us taking the near decade long Manning approach or do you actually think we are a mere one player away). These are simple questions or is there some other fact based example of success you are arguing? I am simply stating the obvious point actually that if you propose an alternative that simply does not exist in real life (is there some example of a team drafting their franchise QB in the 1st which has occurred since Dallas chose Aikman that I do not know about) that this non-existent example falls well short of the entire field of real world examples which have happened from the Saints signing FA Brees to the Pats drafting their franchise QB in the 6th, to teams trading to get 1st rounders they did not draft such as Eli Manning or John Elway, or even plucking Kurt Warner from Wal-mart. I am not arguing that it is easy to pick Brady in the 6th, simply that even this longshot has more of a remote chance of success than the approach of drafting Ryan Leaf, Harrington, or Akili Smith to lead your team to the promised land, I repetitively state this because folks keep repetitively claiming that it is a simple no brainer to draft your franchise QB in the 1st. If you think so then who do you suggest and how do you think this will happen? Having seen how the local media is happy to profit off of lambasting any and all Bills choices as stupid and a small but vocal segment of the fanbase is happy to anoint the next thrown into the fire before he can do the job (if he ever can like JP, RJ, Edwards) and then delight in savaging this athlete, I simply think it is unlikely to work to hit the longshot of picking P. Manning instead of Leaf, or even if we pick a great QB like Favre, Steve Young (or even two time loser who QB'ed a team to an SB win Brad Johnson he is gonna get run out of dodge by a media and some fans quite happy to turn on a future HOF player when he goes through the typical learning curve of even great players. Drafting a QB in the first is almost certainly going to result in the same football mistake which Mr. Ralph led the way in making a handshake deal only he could make with Jimbo. This was a bad football judgment by Mr. Ralph which undeniably triggered a series of QB savior miscues from over-reaching to draft TC, rushing him to start while he showed happy feet, trading value for Bill Joe idiot, contractually screwing up the RJ/DF situation, making JP the starter when even he said he was not ready, and investing to many hopes and dreams in Edwards. A legit question would be what should the Bills do instead. I think: 1. Acquire (using primarily the draft) difference makers for this team. Spiller was an odd choice given the surplus at RB on this team, however, I can see that he was the best bet at difference maker at our pick so I can live with this. 2. Gailey does have a proven track record of winning and even making the playoffs with your so-called aisle 8 QBs. By all means try to find a franchise QB like a Brady in the 6th. as long a shot as this is at least it is a better remote possibility than us finding a QB that can deliver us to the promised land with an early 1st round pick. I think we are more likely to catch lightening in a bottle late in the draft (and even better when we do not see this low cost choice does kill the TEAM like a high picked QB almost certainly would because it is incredibly doubtful any player is gonna be a better QB than Manning and even if he is that he would survive the QB mill in this town. I think it is far more likely that Gailey can make the playoffs (or even win it all quicker than the draft model with him doing what he did to get production out of idiots like Fiedler. 3. Do a better job of not only finding talented idiots like Peters but managing them so they remain happy as Bills. IMHO, the big miscues which led to the selfishness of Peters killing us was when we paid arm and a leg to two lesser OL talents in Dockery and Walker which really forced us to unfortunately deserve to pay a kings ransom to Peters. Even worse, we demonstrated by rolling over to Schobel when he pouted and stayed away from voluntary camp after we gave big cash to a player whose performance did not merit it (Kelsay) that we simply bent over and gave more money to Schobel. Peters was a selfish sod, but given that the Bills already had a clear track record under Brandon of signing bad football contracts with their 3rd and 5th best OL players when they were paying less to their most accomplished OL player. Even worse Brandon had demonstrated when he made the same stupid move on DL that merely through Schobel being selfish Brandon caved, the Peters approach was clearly dictated (and of course worked for him as he did in fact get the outstanding life contract he wanted from Philly which ironically he has not lived up to with how injuries have impacted him. I keep saying the same silly fact based things because they simply reply to the same fact-free opinions offered up by those who insist that the Bills kill themselves by drafting a QB in the first. In fact the best argument for my point of view is the fact that Mr. Ralph seems to be insisting on Gailey/Nix using the huge pick we are likely to get on a QB who almost certainly will be demanded by the local media to start and win immediately. Meanwhile unless we find a pass rush this young QB (even if he survives behind much in need of better players OL) even if great will simply lose a lot of games 34-33. Do you have any facts which indicate otherwise?

Do you understand though that there is a difference between drafting a player in the 1st round and that draftee delivering you an SB and you acquiring a highly drafted QB (since you want to expand your 1st round selected pool to include folks like Farve) who got drafted early but then got run out of town. You claim it is a no-brainer that the Bills must draft a QB in the 1st in order to achieve our goal of an SB win, but look at your own list and name the players who delivered and SB win to the team which drafted them. The simple fact is that only Manning and RoboQB with Pitts are the ONLY QBs who have delivered an SB wins to the teams which drafted them (which is what you suggest we do in order to achieve our goal) since Dallas chose Aikman in the first at the very end of the 80s. There are simply myriad real world examples of teams which reach the promised land by acquiring the early round drafted QB as an FA (as happened in the most recent example of success with FA Drew Brees) picking up the cut 1st round draftee Trent Dilfer while your D actually delivers the goods, to bargain basement pick-up Kurt Warner, two time lose Brad Johnson, or trading for the QB you want such Eli Manning or way back when John Elway. In fact the only two examples of success using the method you offer as a no-brainer by you and Mr. Ralph are those which feature RoboQB actually simply being the final piece of a the puzzle for a team really led by their old RB, their dynamic WR, and a D fueled by the recent NFL successful interest in getting a great safety like Polamaulu or Bob Sanders or Peyton Manning finally winning one with the essential help of Polian making great acquisitions to make this a TEAM, having a great defensive minded HC, the best kicker in the game, etc. No one mistakes the Bills for being a team like Pitts where your 1st round drafted QB can add to the winner and put it over the top. Nor does anyone want to seriously consider taking the Peyton Manning route of committing to a near decade of coming close (after a rookie season which saw Manning elevate the Colts from 3-13 to 3-13). Not only is committing our likely high 1st round choice likely bad football in terms of producing results in any kind of short term, but actually this team led by Mr. Ralph has continually shot itself in the kiester by the foolish attempts to find the next Jimbo. This over focus on one player (savior) rather than focusing instead on building a winning TEAM has led to idiocy like the Mr. Ralph handshake deal with Jimbo, rushing Collins into an inappropriate starter role, the Billy Joe Hobert idiocy, the mishandling of the RL/DF situation, the Losman/Edwards/ debacles. The fact is that the local media and a vocal part of the fan base is not football mature enough to allow any rookie QB thrust into a situation where he cannot win to develop before he gets run out of town. As unlikely as it is to draft the best player in football in the 6th round, this strikes me as a better strategy to succeed than drafting your franchise QB in the first. These are simply the facts. If not then simply list all of the QBs who delivered an SB win FOR THE TEAM which drafter them which is what you suggest we do. We are neither in Pitts situation when they got RoboQB and to the extent we are in Indy's situation when they got Manning this route does not seem viable for us for the ultimate payoff as we near the end of the decade.

The smart money right now for Andrew Luck is not found in a decision that the pros can wait but in understanding that reality must wait. It would be flat out stupid to make a decision right now when he does not have to. I know that in today's impatient culture we all want and demand a decision right now. However, there is nothing Luck can do to determine whether there is going to be a strike or not. It is not predictable right now whether there will be a lockout or not (my bet is that there will not be because the NFL tends to go where the money is and there is more money to be made playing than not playing. Perhaps ego and hubris might win the day and a lockout happens, but to do this would mean a decision by the team owners not only to walk away from billions of dollars to be bad under the current deal, but also would place future money at substantial risk by pursuing a strategy which in the mid-80s kicked the NFLPA tail in the short term but quickly led to the current CBA Ralph and others hate so much). It is not predictable but my guess is that the owners go where the $ are and make a deal which allows play. Still Luck would be simply dumb to make any decision now when he does not have to.

+ 1

It does look pretty dumb from a business perspective, but the other side of this is that humans are involved and the owners can be actually be forced to bend to business logic (as shown went they bent over and said thank you sir can I have another when they met Gene Upshaw'a public demand that the new CBA would not only tie the salary cap to the TOTAL gross receipts but the player share needed to start with a 6). It took waiting until the last minute and Tagliaboo-boo having to make an empassioned plea for business logic, but in the end 30 of 32 owners opted to go for the money rather than show their personal ego. TV is the cash cow of the NFL and the blackout goes against business logic of supporting your real cash cow and getting paid to advertise their product. However, it seems clear from their desire to try to squeeze every penny they can out of the CBA the NFL has re-opened this can of worms and their human vanity and pride which seems to want to return to the old days where they pretended to be free marketeers (even though they make more money under the current socialized system). At least rhetorically they want to return, but I suspect they will go where there is the most money to be made and in the end a more socialized system delivers more money to the individual owner than a free market scheme.

This demonstrably incorrect. Specifically, Peter was a UDFA who many were surprised he was not drafted at TE because his soft-hands, TE speed, and nose for the endzone were clear. However, it also appeared clear to even us outside observers that the nose for the endzone he showed likely came from a big ego and a like for being a star. When he signed here as a UDFA he was in demand from other teams due to his athletic talent and when he signed here it was a clear demonstration of both him choosing to be here. If as you say he never wanted to play here he had tons of opportunities not to come here. Add to this that he was on the PS when he made the roster (again the real-life set-up with this situation is that a player MUST be cut and can sign anywhere). None of us observers know what the real deal actually was, but we do know that for a second time the Bills chose to resign him and he signed the deal. Did he have choices to go elsewhere? We do not know for sure. However, we do know for pretty sure that there was interest from other teams when he was a UDFA before this free agency and we do know for pretty sure that the Bills actually signed him off the PS to their active roster as other teams apparently were sniffing around as any PS player can be approached and signed by another team if they are given an active roster spot for the season with their new team. Peters not only almost certainly chose to be here (a contradiction to your unsupported theory if you want to claim he NEVER wanted to be here)but did so after he was assigned an OL # by the Bills and Mouse MacNally was publicly singing his praises as an OL prospect. In my mind Peters clearly chose to be here as a UDFA, almost certainly chose to be here when moved to he active roster, and again chose to be here long term when he signed a substantial contract to be at least the RT for the Bills. I like a lot of your comments but you should admit you are simply wrong in claiming he NEVER wanted to be here and also show some understanding of the facts we outsiders know that YES he played the prima donna demanding the largest contract in Bills history while he was under contract, but the facts demonstrate that this ask though reasonably not given in to was not inconsistent with either his level of achievement in the NFL (whether anyone thinks it was deserved is another thing) nor with the other stupid gift contracts Brandon played a key role in giving to less accomplished OL players like Walker and Dockery.

Neither. If the Bills has a TEAM with the talent and balance of Pitts when they drafted a rookie starter who helped make the team a TEAM I might advocate that taking a talented QB would be the right move for this team. However, the needs of this team for talent are so wide and diverse that I think that neither Luck or Newton are good enough to win with a bad team around them (and even worse since one of the central talent areas is the OL it is a doubtful thing that a rookie QB even survives a full season with this OL (not to even mention that a QB no matter how talented does little for the pass-rush starved and LB short D). The other problem is that not only is it unlikely that a rookie QB would have the talent to read opposing pro Ds well enough to exploit them with actually will be a not bad diverse set of skill talents like Spiller, the speed of Evans and run/receive talents of Jackson, but also he will need to be able to read pro Ds to avoid a complex set of blitzes which the young OL may have trouble witn. Even worse, even if Luck or Newton are extremely talented and like any rookie QB needs a year or more to develop, the Buffalo media clearly does not have the maturity or willingness to give the player some time yo develop. If this team must use the draft to fortify this team at QB then it would be a far better strategy to acquire the longshot to impossibly be a Tom Brady taken in the 6th than hurting the team by picking a QB in the 1st.

It would really seem to be a shot in the dark to rely upon the draft as a method to obtain a franchise QB. Again, even in the best case of Peyton Manning, the addition of the franchise did nothing to improve the team's performance in the first year they had him. Drafting the franchise QB as a savior seems to pretty much guarantee the Bills going 0 for 12 in playoff runs. And this sad result only occurs if it turns out you make a great pick of a Manning and not the mostly failed picks of 1st round guys.

exactly. Sullivan is not a good journalist as he simply seems to throw a bunch of opinions against the wall without much of a coherent statement of the facts. Fine being a journalist is not his job with the paper. However, he also does not present a very compelling showing as a columnist as he simply does not provide insights into the game which someone with access into the game (he is paid to watch it a lot -though he already admits he does not watch or devote much study to the pre-season Bills) he has a chance to cultivate relationships with the players and the Bills staff which we do not have (though he seems to have frittered much of this opportunity away as he seeks to make money in different media. His craftmanship as a writer seems haphazard also with no consistent style or public reaction evident as few like him a lot a few hate him a lot but most seem find him not unreadable but often forgettable. While other writers have developed a style and stuck with it (Felser as the learned old hand, Brown as the insider sometimes prone to be a mouthpiece) Sully beyond the whinings of the aging failed athlete (his golf series)does not present much insight for the reader. His work is a pretty good argument for term limits covering a particular beat. Perhaps it is that he just has a bad story to cover as the Bills are 0 for a decade, but from this reader/viewer perspective that it what separates the good writers from the not so good or the good columnists from just talking to some drunk at the bar.

You say he is not worth a roster spot when you can replace him with a better player and when the costs of cutting him outweigh the costs of keeping him. Neither is the case right now as: A. Is there someone on the roster who you think is gonna be the OLB we want who is not getting time due to Maybin? B. Is there some FA who you would advocate is the answer to the Bills LB quandaries who we should cut Maybin to acquire. Unless you have an answer to these questions you really are getting your panties all up in a wad and cutting him with no answer, In addition to that there is the question of training Maybin. He does have nonsensical to deny speed and can rush well against good college talent, but is easily neutralized by pro because his game relies solely on speed. The Bills seem to be trying to train Maybin in a way which some educators call catastrophic learning. Namely its a situation like most of us went through learning to ride a bicycle. Initially we are unsteady and muddled (some are so bad they even need training wheels) but you keep trying it and suddenly you just get it. Not only does your muscle memory never forget how to do it but it is even hard to recreate your past problems. This may be the case with Maybin and the initial investment was so high it would be stupid not to try to make it work, particularly without the need or ability to achieve goals by replacing him. Do you know of some specific player who if we had him on the roster instead of Maybin we would make the playoffs?

The difference between the emphasis (over-emphasis I would say in a game I adore because it is a TEAM game rather an overfocus on one individual) on the QB and other positions like the DE is clear: 1. To some extent the focus on the QB is natural and even real as the QB is handling the ball on virtually every offensive play. However, good QB play at most is necessary but not sufficient to make a team a winner but many fans stoked by the NFL publicity machine which attempts to emphasize a single player as a personality often focuses on the QB as though he is the single (or only factor making the team a winner). There is a good marketing reason for promoting the QB as THE singularly important player but do you not realize this is different that there being the best football reason. The QB is important but simply not the sole important or as important as he is often made out to be. Jimbo was great but any Bills fan knew Reich could hold his own for as many as three games nor were they utterly shocked when it was Reich who QB'ed the win in the greatest game ever played (we were all shocked by that game but it was not a shock than when it happened it was not our overhyped QB Jimbo. 2. This promotion machine leads to inordinate pressure and not enough time to be often be given to the young QB. 3. There is often slotting of contracts, but when the slots get broken it often appears to be a premium payment to QBs and teams often seem to stretch to get a guy like TC who then was rushed into a starting role when he clearly need the happy feet trained out of him. 4. Maybin is certainly drawing a lot of disrespect but it is nothing compared to the vitriol directed to failed QBa like Losman or Edwards. This is a clear difference. On the face of it I think the difference between the level of scrutiny and import given on a player like McKelvin, Maybin and even later selections like Edwards.

The problem with taking a QB is that if (a huge big wonkin IF) this QB is as good as lets say a Peyton Manning was then like Manning he propels Indy from a 3-13 record without him to a 3-13 record with him as this rookie QB learns the game (as almost all rookie QBs who are placed in a savior role must do). I only see the Bills getting some return on a 1st round QB choice by 2012 (at best and this QB better have a quick release right from the start like Manning or this OL will get him killed if he is a great player but big windup guy like a Claussen) if he were to do what RoboQB did with Pitts and he was the one needed addition which made this team and SB winner. I do not see the local media or a vocal group of fans who will simply set unreasonable expectations for this rookie QB to be our next savior that he likely will be doomed for failure. It ultimately depends upon how this college season goes through the last game before a real choice can be made (for example McGahee was a consensus top 5 choice until he got Joe Theismanned in his last college game). Hpwever, in terms of generics it is really hard for me to see a choice of a QB with the first choice not simply condemning the Bills to not only an 11th year without the playoffs this year but pretty much assures a 12th year if we choose a QB and I am not sure how this team survives a dozen lackluster records in a row.

The list also demonstrates the foolishness of trying to draw some single conclusion blaming any one GM or coach or simple policy (the bromide that we are too cheap or refuse to invest in the OL ignores the fact that Derrick Dockery and Langston Walker and #4 draft choice Williams are sitting fat and dumb on other teams still counting Bills millions). The simple fact is it ain't all that simple as incredible succession of poor football decisions have created the current situation. Bad scouting, bad management, bad luck, and other factors across the reign of errors of Butler, TD, Marv, and a plethora of both failed and undermined HCs bear the blame for the current debacle. If one insists on blaming one person the whines about Marv, Modrak, Jauron, or whomever are reduced to mere whines by ignoring the fact that the team sucked before they did their thang and the team sucked after their time in charge. If one insists on stopping the buck with one person it has to be Mr. Ralph! Even though he does rightly deserve his fair share of blame (it was only he and he alone who could make a handshake deal with Jimbo which not only blatantly violated the salary cap- but was simply a bad football judgment which delayed the Bills at least a year in acquiring the next QB, led to them over-reaching in many estimations in drafting TC in the 2nd, rushed TC to start when he clearly needed to have the happy-feet trained out of him if possible, traded value for Billy Joe Idiot, and on and on in the futile and fatal search for the next savior at QB), Mr. Ralph also deserves credit for not cashing out when he could and keeping the team here. That being said, the list is a great one as it clearly demonstrates there is no single or simple explanation for what we got.

Any plan which has a key part of it drafting specific players in future drafts is no plan at all as once cannot even come close to targetting specific players until a team knows: 1. Where it is choosing in the draft 2. Where opponents who have the same needs or are interested in the same players are picking. 3. How the individual players perform and the injury wildcard for 2010 before we put together a real draft board for 2011. Any "theory" which purports to understand Nix's strategy but then claims that strategy is based upon unknowable items until the pro and college seasons occur simply is not very convincing.

Who hired Marv as GM (after he played a key role in toxic relationships with Polian, Butler, and hired TD). Hating Marv simply lets Mr. Ralph off the hook as like it or not the buck stops and starts with him. I totally agree that a full view of our owner gives him cred for not csshing out and moving elsewhere (just as a full view of Marv gives him credit for being HC of a team that any indictment of him for losing 4 SBs gives him credit for HCing the team to 4 SBs). In the end, hatred of Marv rings pretty hollow for ignoring the guy who hired him.

This is exactly one of the reasons why I hope Gailey has trained him in pre-season and has plans to use him as the #2 WR, If one's goal is all about assessing Spiller based on some static expectation that his 20 touches a game MUST be as an RB who from time to time goes in motion one can easily see how a dc would combat this as Miami did last wekk, a DB man's up on him and follows him wherever he goes, On plays he lines up as an RB there is now an extra man in the box and when he is in motion. If on the other hand your goal is to make the team perform better on O, then perhaps you sacrifice Spiller getting 20-25 touches as your workhorse RB (a role which like almost all rookie RBs is unclear he can play and after Sunday's debacle even given his talents would using him as a workhorse not be nullified( but instead use him in a manner where simply by his demographic presence you: 1. Allow Evans to be the best he can be (even if you do not think he is #1) 2. You get Jax and Lynch on the field filling a role they have shown they can perform 3. You get Spiller out in space where he seems to perform best AND you get him 15 touches a game as a receiver, from time to time using him as a standard RB, and the infrequent end a round. If one's goal is to try to prove the Bills are draft idiots for taking Evans or Spiller I could see how one might advocate he must get 20+ touches per game as RB, but if your goal is to make the O as effective as it can be with the players they got then I think you advocate Spiller at #2 WR and send Johnson to the bench or ST as his primary contributing role.