Gabe Northern

I disagree. He will not make the team.

Let's go through how this works: Team performs well IN SPITE of poor play from certain player. Team gets rid of said player for someone else in effort to upgrade position. Bills sign said player. Bills fans use player's previous team's good performance as evidence that this player is good despite obvious evidence to the contrary.

He needs to produce as starting weakside OLB. Like the guy, but that's a tall order as a rookie learning a new position.

If Trent is not the starter then either A.) We're in deep trouble; or B.) Brohm or Levi Brown played out of their mind at every opportunity in OTAs, minicamp, and training camp. A game plan that plays to Trent's strengths and makes use of a deep backfield and Parrish and Spiller could move the football. People hating on Trent need to realize we're not going back to last year's insanity of hoping rookies and street free agents in the O-line can maintain protection for 4 seconds while pass plays open up downfield. "But I was at the New Orleans game and I saw Lee running open and Trent checked down because he's a kitty."

Allow me to breakdown why all of those posters writing some variant on "the defense will be solid in 2010" are deluding themselves and others who nod while reading their posts... Chan Gailey is a top-flight offensive coordinator and it's exciting to hear how much time he's spending with the quarterbacks and installing the offense. However, this also makes one realize that the defense really is being run entirely by a first-time defensive coordinator who was demoted from linebackers' coach to inside linebackers' coach in his last NFL job. Moreover, as noted in the Gainesville paper, it was believed he was about to be fired from the Dolphins had he not landed another job. At the same time as this first-time coordinator who struggled as a position coach gets his "stuff" together, the Bills are making a transition to a 3-4 defense without the personnel to run it. Let's stipulate that we're solid at DE: the "5" technique looks like a natural position for Spencer Johnson, Dwan Edwards played it well in Baltimore, and Alex Carrington is, in my opinion, likely to prove to be a better pro DE than Jared Odrick despite being taken 1.5 rounds later. Then, we'll also assume that our CBs can make the adjustment away from cover 2, as one would hope the high picks (McKelvin) and money (McGee) invested in the position could yield some solid man-to-man coverage. We know Byrd, Wilson, and Florence can man up at free, strong, and nickel, respectively. That leaves our NT... First, Kyle Williams is unlikely to work out at NT. He'll work his ass off, and get in the backfield to make some plays, but he does not have the size or strength to anchor at the point of attack to keep the inside backers clean. Torrell Troup -- selected over the larger and better Linval Joseph -- weighs 318 lbs and played the 4-3 in college. A small college. Where the defense got roughed up by the likes of East Carolina (403 yds) and Southern Miss (409 yards). Let's hope Lonnie Harvey works out! ...and outside LBs. Why didn't Maybin get snaps at OLB last year? A 238 lber couldn't be useful at OLB when you have a run on injuries like we had? The moronic Jauron regime explanation only goes so far. When you have Bryan Scott stepping up at OLB it can only be because the coaches had no confidence Maybin could learn his responsibilities. He's never had to before. He was told to get the quarterback for 10 games in the fall of 2008. Hope for a breakout year, but expect disappointment. What about the other side? Kelsay is getting cut, Schobel is holding out for Roger Clemens treatment. That leaves college DE Danny Batten. Yeah, I like him too, but starting right away? Arthur Moats is supposed to provide depth inside. That leaves Antonio Coleman. Did scouts really miss on this guy so badly despite his college production? I guess we hope so. So aside from the problems stopping the run up the middle (NT), keeping contain (both OLBs), rushing the passer, and providing adequate depth to account for the inevitable injuries, this defense looks really solid.

I have no idea how Chan is going to work out as a head coach, but he is legitimately a top 10 offensive coordinator.

great post Promo The Bills PR Flack. So I guess the Bills don't have a monopoly on bad decision-making. Fascinating stuff. Here I thought each and every bad NFL move emmanated from OBD. Have to say, Promo The Bills PR Flack, when thinking about how "we" would react to this news I could pretty much guess how you'd react: by putting the most favorable spin on the move as possible. My guess is we'd be treated to a post about how this shows the new regime is willing to admit mistakes and lacks the ego that would force some other teams to stick it out with a player that wasn't working out.

This is great. Another NFL coach dazzled by JP's arm and athleticism. Can't wait for the follow-up article with background whispers from the coaching staff about JP's rock for brains and trouble connecting on intermediate routes.

Because they'd have to pay him a contract close in guaranteed value to what Peters received.

People need to get some more realistic expectations about Troup, a college "1" technique in the 4-3 defense who is about 318 pounds and was not in a Big 6-conference weights and conditioning program. Let's just hope we see enough out of him in 2010 to have a reasonable basis for believing he can play at the NFL level.

...based on the forecast of NFL Draft Scout. I think Troup was clearly a reach. Hope he works out, but I think it's far from obvious he's a natural 3-4 NT, as he played the 4-3 in school and is only 320 lbs. Instead of round grade, look at where he ranks relative to other DTs. Do you really believe he should have been next NT to go after Dan Williams? Again, hope he works out. Also hoping Lonnie Harvey makes the team and gets snaps.

Blind squirrel found a nut on this one. I love Moats and Batten. Do wish Moats was going to be plugged in on the outside. The comparisons with James Harrison in terms of size, speed, and college production are right on the money.

Incentive-based contracts don't make much sense given that it's a team game. What if, say, the team decides to trade an All Pro Left tackle and insert new players at every position on the O-line? If you were negotiating on behalf of the player you'd want protections against all of that. It would make the contract virtually unworkable because you'd be demanding veto power over major personnel decisions. The current system actually works better. For whatever reason, the issue you don't wan to appreciate is that there is 2 way optionality here...the owners can renege on the contract MORE EASILY than the player. Contracts in the NFL are largely fictitious. There is a guarantee that generally is equal to the average annual payout over the first two to three years and even that generally only covers injury. (I.e. poor performance after injury can result in termination). Even signing bonuses can be recouped based on technical default triggers. If the contract is fictional from the perspective of the team, why is it sacrosanct for the player?

This is perfect example. WAY overplayed his contract. Should Tennessee fans now hate him for this? Hope he leaves and criticize him whenever he runs for no gain?

Some of this is about liking guys who like WNY no matter how poorly they play on the field. Guys would defend JP to me based on his trash clean-up efforts and the fact that he seemed to like the Buffalo night life. Donte has said nice things about the area too. Look at how much anti-Trent sentiment is based on a stupid throwaway line about being a player, not a fan. People are convinced Peters wanted out of Buffalo and hate him for it. I think people forget that Jim Kelly's first two years were spent in the USFL because he absolutely refused to come to Buffalo under any circumstances.

As has been written already, the fact that owners can renege on their end of the "long-term contracts" by cutting the player means there is a moral equivalence here. There aren't holdouts in basketball and baseball because their contracts are guaranteed. The whole issue is whether the player is worth more than the remaining guaranteed money on the contract. When he is, he often decides to hold out. I feel like 95% of the animosity towards Peters on this board was based on moralizing about the supposed sanctity of the crappy, below-market contract he signed.

I'd like to say Whitner is a good player who was simply drafted too high and as a result looks bad only in reference to his lofty draft status, but the fact is that Whitner just looks bad. His lack of production in terms of interceptions and passes defended is an indictment of his ball skills. He's a good tackler, but he has a tendency to take comically bad angles in run support. I can't tell you how many times I've rewound a play to marvel at how the angle he took resulted in a huge gain. He talks a good game as a leader, but is obviously immature. His lack of production contributes to a lack of stature in the locker room. Donte lacks the instincts and ball-hawking of Jarius Byrd and can't provide close to the level of run support of Bryan Scott. This would make him a valuable 3rd safety except for the fact that he's been consistently outplayed by a converted wide receiver, too.

I never suggested that Modrak was fired for "riding others coat tails," nor do I understand how that would be a fireable offense. The expression "riding others' coattails," as I understand it, refers to someone who achieves a certain notoriety thanks largely to the success and talents of associates. This is my impression of Tom Modrak. He lost his job in a power struggle, but I am quite certain that Lurie or Banner or whomever made the decision has never regretted firing Modrak for one second. This article you've linked to is entirely consistent with the notion that Modrak would have been fired in April 2006 absent the assist from Jauron. Modrak was to retain his duties through the 2006 draft. Ralph could not get rid of his head scout in the midst of draft preparation, so he announced in January that Modrak was being retained (and not considered for promotion, I might add). The difficulty replacing the college scouting coordinator near the end of the annual process is also why I suggested that Modrak should have been fired on April 25, 2010 -- i.e. once this year's draft was completed.

Thanks for checking. I am aware that this narrative of Modrak as a "wildly succesful" [sic] talent evaluator has been put out by Modrak and his agent. I am also aware that Modrak has used his friends in the media to make it seem as though he was a "canidate" [sic] for jobs the he never stood a chance of landing. While this is somewhat off-topic given the post's focus on Tom Modrak's performance with the Bills running the past NINE drafts, I think his past success largely consists of riding the coattails of others in solid organizations. First, Tom Modrak was forced out in Philly in 2001. The Eagles' Super Bowl team was three years removed from his time there, with significant roster turnover during that period. McNabb and Dawkins the only remaining players on 2008 NFC Championship game team from Modrak's tenure and the team remains exceptionally talented now with ZERO players from his era. Modrak was in a good situation, was forced out, and the team has not missed a beat. Secondly, Modrak is better playing the media game than he evaluating players. Read down to the Modrak portion of this PFT post. I know people may not like Florio, but prior to his hitting the "big time" his blog was the best thing to read on these issues. He'd spend all day talking to agents of players, coaches, and front office types about who was who's source, what's really going on in a job search, etc. Modrak played that game well and kept his name in the mix for GM openings even when he wasn't getting called for interviews, or was only interviewed because of the "buzz" created by a story. Modrak was going to get fired in 2006, when Jauron stepped in to vouch for him. He should have been fired April 25, 2010.

Just a couple of clarifications. I have had conversations with two people, one of whom is involved in the evaluation process and the other was familiar with how selections were made. Both conversations occurred in social settings. I don't know either well enough to know if they were being straight with me, but the message from both was "what part of Tom Modrak runs the draft don't you understand?" So I believe it and pass this along. Neither suggested that Modrak wasn't overruled (perhaps even regularly), but when that happened, it was generally to get a guy in a different position that Modrak also liked. One expressed frustration with Modrak's uncanny ability to get info out to the media when his pick gets vetoed (Cutler in '06 and Cushing in '09, as examples), while simultaneously escaping accountability for the numerous instances where his recommendation was heeded and the NEXT GUY off the board at the position turned out to be far and away the better selection. The specific citations on this point were the 2008 debacle and the fact that he "fell in love" with hardworking Kelsay (over Osi). Secondly, good points about the scheme. Modrak was supposed to find guys to fit Jauron's borderline insane personnel philosophy over the previous four drafts. Certainly the preference for inserting college safeties at LB and the number of picks used on DBs generally probably contributed more to the bad drafts over those 4 years than Modrak's evaluations. Finally, I provided links to Pasquarelli articles where I was told Modrak was the source. Evidently, they are close friends and Modrak feeds him info in exchange for favorable coverage (being mentioned as GM candidate earlier in the decade to pry some spare change loose from Ralph, for example). See this PFT link or just Google Pasquarelli and Modrak. One link said Losman could still go first round (would he, had the Bills not taken him?) and the Insider version of the other (see sidebar) touts McCargo as a top prospect at a time when most teams had a 3rd round grade on him, at best.

I am amused by all of the posts talking about the "new" front office and how different things are now that Buddy Nix is running the show. It's total nonsense. All they did was elevate a semi-retired scout to the GM position at the same time they promoted Brandon to CEO -- meaning Buddy's position in the pecking order barely changed. They traded Doug Whaley for John Guy and that's a big improvement, no doubt about it, but all of the commentators have focused thus far on the draft. The college scouting operation is all the same, headed by Tom Modrak, the guy who's run our drafts since 2002. I've had numerous conversations with people in the organization about the draft process. While Dick Jauron and Brandon had final say, Dick never overruled a Modrak recommendation when it came to a specific position. So, yes, Dick did decide to take a safety over a quarterback, for instance, but he took the safety on the board rated highest by Modrak. This is an important distinction. In 2009, Modrak wanted Cushing. Fine. But he also had Maybin rated as his #1 DE-pass rusher. Thought Orakpo took too many plays off. So when Jauron-Brandon decided they needed a pass rusher, they went with the guy Modrak recommended. And the guy they passed on went to the Pro Bowl. This was hardly the first time that happpened. In 2008, our needs were identified in post-season review as CB and a WR. We went with Modrak's recommendations of McKelvin and Hardy and passed on a Pro Bowler in both cases (Rodgers-Cromartie in the 1st and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd). In 2007, Modrak had a mid-1st round grade on Poz so we traded up to get him instead of standing pat and getting a better player in David Harris. In 2006, we went up to get John McCargo, another guy Modrak had a 1st round grade on (Modrak was the source for his friend Len Pasquarelli's article about the guy). In the Donahoe era, Modrak selected Roscoe Parrish over Vincent Jackson (taken 6 picks later). He was instrumental in the Losman selection (also source for this Pasquarelli article suggesting JP could go 1st round). In 2003, he recommended Kelsay over Osi Umenyiora (taken 8 picks later). This isn't hindsight bias a la Tom Brady in the 6th round...we're talking about the pick coming down to 2 guys, Modrak recommending one and the VERY NEXT GUY off the board at the position goes to the pro bowl. You all want to pretend this was a good draft, that the "new regime" is taking a fresh approach and getting the right guys in place, fine. You can believe that...glad Russ Brandon didn't have to work hard with the spin this year. But just know that the same guy who made all of bum recommendations in the past is the same guy who recommended Troup over Linval Joseph and Carrington over Earl Mitchell (perfect 3-4 DE who played DT at Arizona). If the past is any guide, watch for Troup and Carrington to struggle while Joseph and Mitchell head to Honolulu.

Cushing has been suspected of using steroids since he was a junior in high school. At this point, the lies are so central to who he is as a person that he'd be willing to say just about anything. By the way, Tom Modrak's leak to the press that he wanted Cushing over Maybin doesn't look so good now, does it? Watch Cushing's on-field production fall off in the same way as Merriman's has since his positive 'roids test.

I'm not even sure his agent would have the balls to make that claim. He had a chance to step up in 2003 and failed miserably. He redeemed himself somewhat through hardwork and a willingness to get nasty with the downfield blocking, but he never could get separation at the NFL level. He was a total failure as a top 36 pick (thanks Tom Modrak). They should have pulled the plug in 2006.

Great post. Nice work. I think Bulaga was the pick...10 picks later after a trade down.

Great post. Nice work. I think Bulaga was the pick...10 picks later after a trade down.