strive_for_five_guy
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Posts posted by strive_for_five_guy
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2 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:
Re-posting as there's been a response to my original reply. Thinking about it, I believe I'm right in saying the Steelers have an outside chance if the Dolphins lose but Jets win at the weekend? But that's only if the Jets and Dolphins play out a tie in week 18; then both teams will be on 8-8-1, and the Steelers can leapfrog by winning out.
Ah yes, I think that’d be one other possibility (improbable as it would be). -
On 12/25/2022 at 11:06 PM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
steelers will win that game for sure though IMO. And that will likely keep their playoff hopes alive going into week 18.
By my tally, Steelers are going to need both the Dolphins and Jets to lose this week, in order to still have playoff hopes by Sunday night. NE and Seattle both COULD win those matchups, although some good battles ahead. -
1 hour ago, WotAGuy said:
You never know, not that there’s anything wrong with that. But it is a power move.
I mean, Josh has been known to unleash pelvic thrusts on opponents. -
It is the darkest nights that produce the brightest stars.
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34 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Cool stuff. Not surprising, but Allen’s Big Time Throw %’s are off the charts. Heading into the Cincy game, if there’s a matchup we can exploit, looks like it’s our pass rush versus their O-Line.-
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7 minutes ago, Logic said:
I try not to post too much from pay articles, but this was too good not to share:
Allen was golfing in Newport, Calif., with his old pal Barkley, who had been his backup in 2018, 2019 and 2020, when Bills general manager Brandon Beane called. He asked his quarterback if he could give Miller a call because the Bills were trying to recruit the pass rusher to come to Buffalo.
Allen has said that he thinks he and Beane have the best QB-GM relationship in football, so he knew he could use this favor to strike a deal.“I’m like, alright, well, I need you to sign Matt,” Allen said. “And he said, okay I’ll see what I can do.”
Together from their golf cart, Allen and Barkley held up their end of the bargain (though at the time, Barkley had no idea Allen had mentioned him to Beane). “I think Von has a couple numbers, so we were trying to figure out which one to call,” Barkley said. “We kept getting a dead ringtone.”
When they finally got to him, Barkley says Allen also sent Miller a three-line text that read:
Zach Wilson
Tua Tagovailoa
Mac Jones
“You get to play these guys six times a year,” Barkley said. “Have at it. Why would you not want to come? I don’t know if that sold him or not, but it was a heavy pitch.”
The irony is that Von only got to play those guys in two games this season. And who knows how long each of them will even be around! -
Not surprised. It’s appearing that his “other commitments” are a higher priority than his play on the football field.
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14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Why announce it now? Why not just play out the season then announce?
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13 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:
Re-sale? Was on site when they went on sale and they were face value from the team. Got kicked and had to wait in line again. They were still the same price.
Yes, that was the re-sale price. -
11 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:
Is it really that big? Last year the Bengals were the #3 seed and went to the Super Bowl. The Rams were the #2 seed and went to the Super Bowl.
Yes, here’s a mathematical way to think about it. Let’s say every game is 50/50. The 1 seed has a 25% chance to make the Super Bowl, whereas the other six teams in a conference have 12.5% chance. This is without adjusting for the extra week of rest and home field advantage. So before even adjusting for those additional benefits, the 1 seed is twice as likely to make the Super Bowl than any other given team. -
16 minutes ago, Cheektowaga Chad said:
I wouldn't expect ticket price drops like last season, tickets on the secondary market last season were cheap all season long. This season not so much besides the jets game.
The dolphins game they weren't terrible but still higher than most from the previous season
Not knowing what the prices are right now, I would expect the final prices to be in 120 to 150 for the cheap ones
The prices I’m seeing on Ticketmaster are $700+ right now. The afternoon tickets went on sale, I was seeing minimum of around $1,000 by the time I had a chance to bid (which I passed on). So the prices have settled back down a little, although I’m not sure how much further they will drop for a potential once-in-generation AFCCG. -
1 minute ago, TBBills said:
So what the penalty for this?
Nothing. If Tua didn’t say anything and nobody noticed during the game, who else can be blamed? -
2 hours ago, Greg S said:
Who do you think Troy will be drooling over more Allen or Burrow?
Apparently we never get the Mannings on our MNF games? Would much prefer their perspective over Aikman/Buck.-
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20 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
Strive for Five!
I approve your message.-
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20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
As long as we win and then take care of the Pats in Week 17. You may think that's a foregone conclusion but the Pats would probably like nothing more than to keep us from the 1 seed and will likely be playing hard. I just don't think it will matter.
His statement about 3 straight home games is accurate. We win, we at least lock up the two seed, which guarantees at least 1st and 2nd round of playoffs at home. But would def be better to up that to the one seed, and just skip 1st round altogether. -
6 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
He’s always had that gimpy waddle kind of run.
I just can’t buy a twisted ankle in Week 2 walkthrough is still plaguing him in Week 15/16.
I agree about the ankle, and doubting that it’s still plaguing him. Some of his stats are pretty much on-par with prior season (yards/catch, catch rate), except that he has more targets this year. Maybe being on the field more and higher expectations are just better exposing weaknesses that have been there along? -
Nice one, Pats! We need to beat the Bengals either way, so doesn’t really matter in my mind.
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1 minute ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:
Where’s all the negative people from the first half thread? 🤔
Lurking-
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Bears packing it in now
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2 minutes ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:
That was a bad decision by Josh.
His concussion symptoms from the Packers game must be coming back.-
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Just now, Mopreme said:
Why is he even on the field?
Should be Beasley out there at this point.-
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Did McKenzie even think to touch the guy down at least?
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19 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:
Off to my Bills bar.
We got the playoffs last week, now let's wrap up the division!
GO BILLS!!!
And at least the 3 seed!-
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Just wait until the Jags have Ridley playing for them next year too. They’re gonna take over the AFC South for good, and be an even stronger challenge to the rest of the AFC front runners.
Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Agreed my initial example was as simple as possible. I‘ll spice up the approach for you. Let’s say a home team’s advantage is an extra 5%
chance of winning (55%). In addition, let’s say a higher seed is on average better by an additional 3%, per seed differential. So a 1 seed hosting a 2 seed gets an extra 3%, resulting in a 58% chance of winning (50+5+3).
Then, let’s say the 1 seed’s path to the Super Bowl is to host the 4 and 2 seed. In the model, the 1 seed has a 64% chance of winning the first game, 58% chance the second. Odds of making the Super Bowl are 37% (even higher than the 25% in my original simple approach).
Meanwhile, let’s say the 2 seed would need to beat the 7 seed, 3 seed and 1 seed. Odds to win each game are 70%, 58%, and 42%. Overall odds of making SB are 17%.
Even relative to the 2 seed, the 1 seed’s chances of making the SB Bowl are more than double. And this still doesn’t account for the fact that the 1 seed heals up during the bye seed while everyone else further risks injury.
Hope this further helps demonstrate why earning the 1 seed is a huge advantage.