BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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2 hours ago, Magox said:
There is more of an urgency to win it all than ever before. Allen in the next few years will be declining from a physical standpoint, (I don’t believe overall but physically).I am convinced that after seeing how the Eagles are paying all their players and some with over $350M in their voided year contracts which is $200M more than the next highest team that Pegula will more all in than he has in the past.
We will know in the not so distant future if what I believe will play out.
Yeah, I am naturally skeptical of sports ownership and said owner's not holding up their end of the bargain by putting the best product on the field they can. And no question in my mind that Terry Pegula has yo-yo'd financially with the Sabres.........but he's also intimately involved in personnel decisions there so it's not necessarily even just a reflection of being cheap. He didn't give Kevyn Adams full control when he hired him.
The Pegula's turned over Bills ops entirely to McDermott to get him to sign on the dotted line and I haven't seen any instance that indicates that he's ever told McBeane no on something they wanted to do.
I've heard numerous times that Pegula regrets giving up "full" control to McBeane but it sure seems he's been true to his word and allowed them to do as they see fit.
And in return they got Terry P a franchise QB, they've won consistently, increased the value of his asset many times over etc.. so he is probably able to overcome any "feels" about lacking control by knowing it's worked.
I just don't think it's a given that Beane wants to operate like the Eagles do but I get why fans are trying to put the onus on ownership.
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38 minutes ago, Magox said:
They can easily do it, just depends if there is the will to do it from Pegula.When has Terry Pegula shown ANY unwillingness to spend money on the Bills?
There is zero evidence that he ever has.
I think we should suspend discussing the notion that he has until the first time he does.
McBeane were given full control when they took over so the presumption should be that if they do not make certain moves it's their choice not to........not Terry Pegula's.
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5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:
Yup. Certainly a big difference in variance between QBs and teams. I don’t think it was a surprise that the Bengals had issues last season. The Bengals didn’t put a good OL in front of Burrow and failed to replace a lot of defensive talent. Meanwhile the Bills have been nothing if not consistent.
The scary thing for the Bengals is Burrow actually played last season in it's entirety. He finished 2 others on the sideline. He's almost due for another injury at his historical rate.
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34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Man I just can't get excited about Slayton at all. PFF ranked him 91/98 WRs with a 59.0 grade. I know PFF isn't the end all be all and I know Slayton was in an awful passing offense, it just feels like a big projection for a WR that will probably get paid a fairly large contract in a weak WR market. I don't like paying a WR off a down year who's never really shown top end talent to begin with. DJ Chark, Gabe Davis, our own Curtis Samuel... Those are the recent comparisons that fit that profile.
Hollywood Brown I am open to but you can't rely on him staying healthy. I don't understand the contract projections I'm seeing for him. He had to accept a 1 year $7M deal last offseason presumably because teams wanted him to prove he could stay healthy, and he answered that question by suffering a major injury on the first play of preseason. Now I'm seeing projections of like 2 years $18M? If that's what he gets then I'm out. If he gets what he should which is another low cost 1 year prove it deal then sure I would take a flyer on him.
Yeah, it's funny, Bill Barnwell has an article on ESPN about how impressive the cast of available receivers are this offseason and it kinda' feels like none of them really fit the Bills EXCEPT Hollywood Brown........if he's healthy. They lack a deep threat and most of the big names on there are like Cooper. Who is, as Barnwell aptly describes, a 50/50 and back shoulder deep target at this stage of their career. Really weird having like a dozen guys who have put up 1,000 yard season and the class feels weak because of the Bills specific need.
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On 2/15/2025 at 2:12 PM, BarleyNY said:
Yeah. That’s all in line with my point. You can’t know how it’ll all shake out for your team or anyone else. No harm in some fans making some optimistic projections, but we will see dozens of things to change those projections leading up to the season and then again during the season.
Yeah we are in agreement on that. The variance on what was expected of the Vikings versus what they produced is the greatest example because of the 14 wins. But I think you have to give Mahomes and Allen a different benefit of the doubt. They've rarely missed a game in their careers and they "win" 11 or more every year and win their division. Bills probably should have won the division in 2019 if not for Brady(a seemingly inevitable QB like them). Burrow and Lamar? They have both finished multiple seasons on the sidelines and missed the playoffs multiple times.
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2 hours ago, DrBob806 said:
Definitely are among the favorites, as the Bills should basically have 5 AFC East wins. Now, they need to find 7-8-or 9 more wins.
A split with the AFC North 2-2
Take 3 from NFC South 3-1
AFC E 5-1
So that's 10-4.
KC, Philly, Hou, say they go 2-1 so 12-5 would be reasonable. Could they do better than that? Maybe, but I think this is reasonable (for February lol).
If they were a top 5 roster talent team but with just a "good" QB like Kirk Cousins of a couple years ago I would feel like they might have a much wider variance in potential W-L. But with Allen being proven for 5 years and trending up as a leader/winner the past year and a half I agree that 12 seems like a starting number of sorts. Things can always change but I wouldn't bet the under at this point.
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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
What do you think he is? That is what I struggled with. I'm not sure he quite has the burst or agility to project to a true outside 9 tech type pass rusher and I don't think he plays with enough leverage to be a 5 tech DE in a 3-4. I ended up thinking he might fit best as a 6/7T base "big end" in a 4-3 - a guy who plays the run really well and gets you 5-6 sacks a season.
Yeah that sounds about right and probably what he ends up as. A solid player. But to be honest I thought JJ Watt was a 3-4 DE and was really surprised how early he was picked. Landon Jackson doesn't have any traits that make me say he CAN'T rush the passer at a high level. He just hasn't. I use the Watt comp because he had very low production in college as well. If Jackson tears it up at the combine he could bounce back into 1st round consideration. I doubt he will test as poorly as Epenesa did and have to change his body type etc..
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3 hours ago, bobobonators said:
Dont be obtuse.
Mostert is turning 33 in April. Cook is just entering his prime at 25/26. He should get paid by someone. Hopefully it’s not us though - but not because Cook is undeserving.
Point is don't get caught up in statistical anomalies. For that, Mostert is a PRIME example. If Cook had the other numbers he produced in 2024 but only 2 TD's again.......like in 2023......then there is no conversation around paying him like a top RB right now. Look at what they really are. In Mostert's case he was an injury prone journeyman with ELITE speed. Cook has been a good to very good 2 down RB in his 3 years. He's not "elite" like some people have wishfully thrown around.
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13 minutes ago, H2o said:
We might be limited in what we can get in return for Cook because of the fact he's pressing for this new deal. Arizona, Chicago, Washington, and possibly the Giants make the most sense to me. Arizona especially to build if they plan on keeping Murray. That would give them Murray, MHJ, Cook, and McBride as foundational pieces in the skill group. Probably get a 3rd and a conditional in 2026.
It's always true that RB's shouldn't be worth much in trade. But all it takes is one team. Prime All-Pro DHop for worn out RB David Johnson and a 2nd round pick actually happened. And that was before this "RB renaissance". It's apropos that LA Chargers get mentioned because Harbaugh would be a guy who might value a veteran RB like that.
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Say it ain't so Junkarlo!
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43876552/yankees-giancarlo-stanton-elbows-uncertain-opening-day
Cash needs to get one more bat so they have someone to fill in when Junk misses his 35-75 games and Bellinger and Dominguez miss their time.
The obvious fit is Brendan Donovan of the Cardinals. He'd get 140+ starts between LF, RF and infield with the Yanks injury probabilities.
If St. Louis would attach him to Arenado and send the 2 for next to nothing I'd do it. I can't understand why anyone would take Arenado and his $75M. Even half of that more than he's going to be worth over the next 3 seasons with his increasingly feeble bat. Whoever gets him is getting Yankees Josh Donaldson 2.0 in 2026-2027 so you hope to get a platoon season out of him and then dump his carcass.
But if they got arbitration Donovan that would help make up for the lost value. They'll likely get $60M in value for 3 years of prime Donovan for like $15M in arb salaries so then you are basically just eating $30M taking on Arenado($75M-$45M).
Hal don't want to pay that luxury tax though so probably gotta hope Oswaldo and Oswald step up.
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1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Because Cook has 1 ability that no other RB currently on the roster, or on the Bills in the last 10-15 years has had: the ability to take it to the house on any given play.
He's a one-man deep threat. If he gets to the 2nd level clean, look out. Poyer learned the hard way as he watched Cook blow right by him.
You have great stats and analysis comparing numbers. Fine. Make those say whatever you want. But neither Ray Davis nor Ty Johnson are breaking off a 50yd TD run anytime soon. Cook had MULTIPLE this year alone.
Yeah there are a lot of explosive RB's in this draft. Treveyon Henderson might go right where Cook did in round 2 and he is probably a more polished player right now than Cook is after 3 years of seasoning. More explosive than Cook for damn sure and he can actually pick up a blitz like a champ.
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11 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
I am 100% with you.
If Beane doesn’t pay Cook - trades him as part of a DE move or just for assets AND then replaces him with a PREMIUM RB in the Draft. All good.
Wherever you draw that line - for me it’s something like Hampton, Johnson, Judkins, Henderson, Sampson. Wherever your line is - you’re thinking it’s Round 4 and 5.
But that’s R2 for me and so I don’t want to hear Chris Brown hyping up our 5th Round compensatory pick and Ty Johnson as replacements.
Otherwise you’re hoping Bhayshul Tuten can step right in and be an RB1.
You are shooting for upgrades over Cook. Which would be ideal but remember what Cook was when they selected him. He's become almost the opposite of what was expected.
You don't NEED a 350 touch guy like Hampton or Judkins in this offense. I like Henderson a lot though. WAY more sophisticated prospect than Cook was.
I am hoping Brashard Smith falls to the Bills in round 4. Hoping he runs like a 4.55 or something at Indy because he plays fast, sudden and instinctive. Always been a favorite of mine since he was at the U. 4 star WR but just couldn't beat out Xavier Restrepo for slot reps and wasn't big enough to play the boundary and the Canes always have 4 star RB's to feed so he didn't get much of a chance there. He's really natural at RB and a better prospect than Tyrone Tracy, IMO. He showed great ball security on 274 touches last year too so not as much of a projection as Tracy was so he should go much sooner.
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42 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
Yeah that might all compute until you see who this GM has selected before:
Devin Singletary (3rd)
Zack Moss (3rd)
Traded conditional 6th and Moss for Nyheim Hines
James Cook (2nd)
Ray Davis (4th)
Taiwan Jones, Chris Ivory, Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon, Matt Breida, Leonard Fournette, Latavius Murray, Damian Harris, Ty Johnson.
Using Cook as a chip is one thing, but Cook is easily the best RB this team has had in 7-years of Josh Allen.
Seeing a lot of Chargers emerging as trade partners - what are they giving the Bills - Derwin James? A first round pick?
Or is it the usual 3rd? Which is nothing.
So the Bills lose 250-touches and gain a 3rd Rounder - so almost assuredly they lose firepower as they flip all their resources to try and become the Philadelphia Eagles a year too late.
Why are we "assured" that the Bills lose firepower in trading Cook? As I illustrated, Cook was just a top 20 producer in terms of rushing yards. What if they select a RB who can actually play all 3 downs in round 3? Might even find that in round 4 or 5. Cook would have been a day 3 pick in this loaded RB draft.
In my estimation Cook went from a good 2 down RB whose production was inflated by scheme, OL quality and the particular QB he had in 2023 to a very good 2 down RB whose production was inflated by those things. He's not a great player. The Bills had to take him off the field on a lot of high leverage/passing downs to maximize his efficiency in 2024.
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1 hour ago, Magox said:
This board and for that matter much of the league greatly values the worth of Wide receivers to their teams prospects to having success. As it stands there are 23 total receivers who make at least $20 million per year of which 11 make more than $25 Million. Just a couple years ago there were 14 who made $20M+ and just 5 that made $25M+.
The rate of inflation for paying receivers has outpaced the rate of the salary cap inflation as a whole. To put this into perspective, by the time the 2025 season begins nearly half the league will have allocated pretty close to 10% of their entire salary cap towards their star receiver.
Justin Jefferson made up 13.7% in 2024
Devante Adams 13.5%
CeeDee Lamb 13.3%
Cooper Kupp 12.8%
AJ Brown 12.5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 11.8%
Brandon Aiyuk 11.8%
Tyreek Bill 11.8%
Dk Metcalf 11.5%
Deebo Samuel 11.5%
Out of which 4 of them made the playoffs this past year.
https://theanalyst.com/2024/09/are-the-highest-paid-wide-receivers-worth-it
The league over the past 17 years had steadily increased their rate of passing which justified an increase in the rate of inflation to receivers. Back in 2005 teams were throwing on average for 203.5 and saw a steady increase all the way to 2020 peaking out at 240.2 yards per game. Since 2020, teams have began to run the ball more often and more successfully, seeing the passing rate steadily decline to 217.6 yards per game which is a substantial 10% rate of decline in passing yardage over the past 5 years. It makes sense that teams have evolved and have adjusted to playing more bully ball against teams that were designed to stop passes who employed lighter boxes and base nickel defenses leading to the decline in passing yards.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm
It's not coincidence that sometime around 2020 NFL teams which was when teams were at their zenith in terms of passing yards had begun to seriously deflate Running back valuations comparatively to the rest of the NFL rate of player personnel pay and began the inflation of wide receiver pay relative to the NFL pay as a whole.
The question begs is the rate of pay inflation in the NFL for receivers justified?
Before I get into that, I wanted to share some stats.
The four teams that threw the ball the least in 2024 was Philadelphia, Baltimore, Green Bay and Buffalo. All 4 teams were playoff teams, one won the Super Bowl, another went to the AFC championship. Out of the top 10 teams that passed the ball least 7 made the playoffs.
This past year in 2024, out of the top 10 receivers in terms of receiving yards only 3 played in the playoffs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ladd McConkey.
Out of the top 10 of the teams that spent the most for wide receivers in 2024 only 3 made the playoffs. Out of the bottom 17 teams that spent the least in wide receivers in 2024, nearly half of them did make the playoffs.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/wide-receiver/_/year/2024/table/active/sort/cash_total
It's clear that for NFL teams to be successful that it is not necessary to have true blue #1 blue chip boundary WR's. Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are examples of this. Out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, only 5 teams have receivers that are being paid over $20M a year.
It's evident that the NFL has begun to trend towards running against lighter boxes more and passing the ball less. It takes a little time for GM's to adjust to realities on the ground, but we are beginning to see the deflationary cycle break in terms of paying playmaking RB's, but we've yet to see this happen in the wide receiver market. There are traditional factors at play such as basic supply and demand, in which unfortunately for RB's, the supply of RB's are expected to increase through this years RB crop of rookies which may put a damper on the overall RB market and that inversely there aren't that many stellar WR's in this year rookie crop which may prevent a lid for WR's.
With all that said, I do expect to see the inflationary rate of pay for Wide receivers to begin to subside sometime in the near future. I don't advocate for having bottom tier talent at the receiver spot, what I am advocating is that it's not necessary to pay these extreme high wages that eat up so much cap room for a WR, specially in a league that has consistently been trending towards passing the ball less over the past 4 seasons.
Individual-pay comes down to a players individual-ability to impact a game.
Those guys are going to get paid disproportionately and because they are under-supplied they will likely continue to outpace the cap in general.
That's why edge and island positions(like boundary WR) get paid and ultra dependent positions like RB's do not and should not.
Brief fluctuations in how teams play offense or defense don't really change that.
After a couple years of offense's fighting against the current league scoring in 2024 returned back to the perceived "high flying" 2021 levels that caused defense's to back off in the first place.
The Bills have been one of those "prevent the deep ball at any cost" teams since McD got here. Years prior to the league shift.
And what are we talking about here?
Changing it up defensively.
So I wouldn't bet the house on the entire league going with one style of defense again........that was the anomaly, IMO.
Maybe passing yards per game topped out in 2020-2021 but it will bounce back.
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1 hour ago, BearNorth said:
Toughest might be a better adjective than durable, he was on the injury report pretty much the entire season, and I suspect some of his issues being able to stretch the field were injury-related. Fortunately our O-line and trio of RB's mean't he didn't have to play as much "hero ball".
You can't really quantify "toughest".
117 straight starts and 5 straight 40 TD seasons. 5 straight division titles. Those are the kind of things you can quantify.
The main reason the Bills and Chiefs are always deep in the playoffs is because they can consistently reproduce their results.
Nobody else is anywhere near as consistent. And a lot of that is projectable.
For instance, we know right now that unless one of them gets traded one of Lamar and Joe Burrow will AT BEST be playing on the road in the WC round.
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7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
He signed a 2 year $19.75M extension. I rounded $9.875M to $10M.
https://overthecap.com/player/joe-mixon/5634Yeah that's not really how it worked though. They re-worked his 2024 deal to lower that cap hit.
It was then a deal that would potentially pay him 3 years $25.5M.
They can cut him after 2025 and the total paid will be $16M for 2 years.
So $8M aav.
And that is the likely result rather than pay him $9.5M in 2026.
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23 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
Were you able to adjust your expectations of the Bills’ final regular season record after they beat KC to get to 9-2? Were you able to adjust your expect of the Vikings regular season record after seeing how Darnold performed in that offense? I was.
Another example is the Lions. I thought they were a strong contender to make the NFCCG and SB. Then just about their whole defense went down with injuries. That made me think they’d get bounced early in the playoffs, which they did.
You are just undermining your attempted point when talking about your year-long fluctuations of opinion. You aren't likely to know much better after free agency and the draft.......it just feels that way. I mean MOST free agency signings fail and 1st rounders typically hit at just under a 50% rate.......but you think knowing which teams get which player then is really going to clarify things?
Again, if you have one of the truly elite, durable QB's and consistently win and aren't aging out and consistently rank among the less injured teams(contrary to some Bills fans feels) and don't have to do a lot of business in "fail agency" then you are probably one of the best bets. Those are things we know right now.
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38 minutes ago, FireChans said:
If we draft any RB high I’m going to scream.
I kinda' expect it. And watch the verbiage he will choose. Beane will be like "we had an extra second rounder".
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31 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:
Yes, him. The best blocker who ever played in Buffalo. All teams have made some poor trades, but trading Jason Peters was easily one of the worst, dumbest trades in NFL history.
I still remember @PromoTheRobot trying to post updates on how terrible Peters was several All Pro seasons after he was traded. The sourest grapes ever.
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21 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I watched a lot of the Texans. He was a 2 down guy. Regardless of what he did with the Bengals, the Texans wanted him as a 2 down guy. Ogunbowale played 3rd downs and was the receiving back.
Me too but I'd say a lot of things didn't go like the Texans planned. And Mixon got $8.5M not $10M as you claimed. And those discrepancies aside......when players reach free agency they get paid based on their past production.............not how the team plans to use them. $8.5M was the cost of doing business and is a far cry from $15M or even $12M when it comes to RB contracts.
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34 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:
Yes, we will all know more and be able to make better predictions as time passes. FA will bring things into better focus, then the draft, then cuts, then every week. Anyone skilled at projecting anything should know that our ability to project the season’s outcome today is very, very poor. I’m not sure what you’re even arguing. You seem to be disagreeing with me, but then you write paragraphs supporting what I’ve said.
Yeah, that's the fallacy. You think you will know better but in reality you won't. You wouldn't know that a Zack Baun will become an NFLDPOY after signing for peanuts. You won't know that a rag tag looking bunch of acquisitions and a rookie QB will lead the Commanches to the NFCCG. The Vikings win 14 games? C'mon even in the preseason people thought they'd have a losing record. You won't know that the Niners will fall apart early and the Lions fall apart late. Most observers didn't think the Bills would be anywhere near as good as they were.
The reality is that a bunch of the really good, consistently good, elite QB'd teams are going to finish near the top. The Bills are one of those. So as futile as the exercise is........I like where they start the offseason and doubt that will change much for the worse given their track record and the variables we know of.
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Just now, Kirby Jackson said:
RB values will increase after the years of Saquon & Henry. Mixon signed for $10M last year, has more miles and is a 2 down guy. Cook outperformed him all year. If Cook went into FA today, what do you believe he would get? As you said, that $5.5M number isn’t in the ball park. It would be twice that without question. He may not get to $15M but there’s zero chance that he’s less than $10M. Now he’s in position to get market value. He’s proven to be a very valuable member of this offense.
C'mon now, Mixon was not just a 2 down guy and he didn't get $10M aav. He was coming off 110 grabs the prior 2 seasons when he signed that deal.
If Cook would take that same 3 year extension at $25.5M then I think Beane would probably be all over that whether the contractually obligated Cook has the leverage to pull it off or whether anyone likes it or not.
As for Mixon outperforming Cook, that is largely irrelevant because the deal was for what he had been doing. Which was putting up 300+ touch seasons and bringing a physical element to the game on any down.
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15 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
I could see drafting a RB this year relatively high kind of like lions did with Gibbs, even if they want to try to extend Cook. I like both Ohio state RBs, fast and can block and catch and both have a lot of experience but not too much tread on the tires bc of sharing the load for their careers.
As much as I hate to see it.......I can see it. And in fairness, Beane's day 2 RB picks haven't been among his worst day 2 picks. Treveyon Henderson would be a particularly fun player and significantly more talented(and a true 3 down back) than Cook.
Beane's work in round 2 is on par with what has been 60 years of bad drafting in round 2 for the Bills. Likely having 2 of them again this year.......it might be time to trade them. He can't seem to handle the psychology of round 2. He just picks too needy, IMO.
But if you are going to be needy RB's are pretty easy projections and tend to provide better value than RB's picked between pick 11-32. So at least there is that.
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12 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
All fair and the argument would be that Cook has just over 4x the touches with good efficiency. I suspect Cook ends up at $12.5M and Johnson at $2.5M-$3M.
If all that it is about is touches you can try to squeeze those numbers in and pretend they equate.
But someone has to pick up those blitzes on obvious passing downs that Cook cannot........and it has to be an equally dynamic option when he gets the ball OTHERWISE Cook's lack of ability in that regard becomes liability in his ledger.
That's why their snap counts are so much closer than people realize and why Cook is not nearly as valuable as his efficiency on early downs may suggest. That's where a GM has to be smart and not pay a 2 down player 3 down money.
When you factor in the gravity/importance of of 3rd downs with their overall 40/60 snap share of 800 snaps......... then why wouldn't Ty Johnson be worth AT LEAST half of what Cook is?
I think Cook with his current $5.5M hit and Johnson at a projected $2.5M represent a fair distribution. Cook would get much more on the open market.......which he's not entitled too yet.......simply because he's proven he can handle bulk use.
But when you start comparing his bulk use to that of players like Saquon making $12M the value isn't even close.
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Greg Rousseau Extended (4 years / 80M / 54M Guaranteed)
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Because you don't think that the $100M+ Beane has guaranteed in the last week was done without consulting the boss? My points stand.