BADOLBILZ
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Posts posted by BADOLBILZ
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Not sure if this was @Billsfed1's intention but the exercise really underscores the fact that none of Beane's acquisitions this offseason project as difference makers in 2025.
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4 hours ago, NewEra said:
I think that’s higher end as well….for our offense. A run first, spread the ball around to keep the defense off balance type offense.
regarding Mack’s PT….he was in there to block more than he was to catch passes….no?
Yeah, if the Bills reach the playoffs again this season this will basically be year 3 of Joe Brady's "everybody eats" in the playoffs.
The formula has worked at regular season intensity. It's even been very good at home against vastly inferior competition in the wild card rounds.
But when the competition is legit and the game is on the line will Josh Palmer be getting open against that Chiefs or Ravens CB when they are playing like their life depends on it?
I suspect not. That's when the difference makers do their thing.
When push literally comes to shove the Bills top WR's have got shoved on their a$$ and Palmer totally fits the mold physically.
Palmer is not exceptionally fast. He's not exceptionally physical. He's played just one playoff game but was rendered totally ineffective. He caught 2 balls on 6 targets for 30 yards despite playing basically every snap.
That's why the Bills should have been all over DK Metcalf. He is playoff tested and proven. Big, physical, fast. Traits that still play when the opponent is giving 100% effort and intensity.
As for Mack.......he played the most snaps of any Bills WR with 66%. So he was out there in all situations. Also had their highest passer rating when targeted at 118.
Palmer is getting the Sharty-Sherfield effect........a lot more credit for his outlook than his track record warrants.
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1 hour ago, NewEra said:
Ideally, of course. Most likely? 🤷🏻♂️
I think it’ll come down to how Josh And Joshua gel. Some guys have natural chemistry (see Josh and Shakir). Some guys don’t (see Josh and Kincaid).
So you think gelling is going to turn Palmer into what level of producer though?
I mean, I wouldn't be "shocked" if he averaged 50 yards receiving per game over 17 games but I think that's probably the higher end. What's "most likely" is what I always say with these free agent signings..... that they finish with a season not far from their career norms. Look at Mack Hollins. Despite all the PT he got receiving the most snaps of any Bills WR......he put up just 378 yards. His career range is mostly 200's with a high in the 600 range so falling in a bit south of 400 tracked.
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1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:
PFF Receiving Grades FWIW. They factor in passer rating plus more variables (DOT, YPR, Drops, etc.). Pretty much the same but they give Kincaid a little more love. Knox didn't have enough targets to qualify.
Shakir - 77.85 (27th of 98 WR's)
Kincaid - 76.6 (8th of 37 TE's)
Coleman - 69.4 (60th of 98)
Palmer -68.3 (62nd of 98)
Samuel - 62.6 (85th of 98)
Moore - 58.6 (93rd of 98)
Yeah using this kind of data removes the vague "feels" aspect that vastly favors the unfamiliar. Sharty-Sherfield syndrome.
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2 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:
We’ve yet to see Palmer play a single game for us. He could be great, he could be another Curtis Samuel. He hasn’t earned it yet..
Yeah I think it's very unlikely that Palmer is "great" though. Because he has already played 4 years in the NFL and hasn't showed any inkling of great. You don't see many WR's go from his type of production for 4 seasons to stacking up "great" seasons.
Coleman, on the other hand, showed flashes of big play ability until his terrible finish down the stretch. 19.2 yards per catch and 18.8 yards per target. Ideally, for the Bills(and Beane's draft hit/miss ratio) Coleman elevates to being the top boundary WR for the Bills this season.
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7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
FWIW, I have a very close friend at the Steelers as some of you know. I talked to him a couple of weeks ago on a few things. He thinks Watt is about to fall off a cliff and if they could get a 2nd, they should jump at it. This was before the draft and I’d imagine he’s even more emboldened.
Agree with the friend.
I saw most Steelers games last year and there was a BIG decline in general impact from Watt in games than in seasons prior. I was really surprised at the end of the year that his counting stats had him in contention for DPOY.
Then I saw that he had played the most snaps of his career.
That's basically why he got 11.5 sacks. 935 snaps.
I'm not directly comparing the two as overall players.......but Von Miller had 6 sacks on 279 snaps and Bills fans were not impressed.
Watt's stats were STUFFED by lot's of low juice snaps.
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Based on passer rating when targeted in 2024(pro football reference)
108.8 Khalil Shakir
93.9 Keon Coleman
88.2 Josh Palmer
84.7 Dalton Kincaid
79.3 Curtis Samuel
44.5 Elijah Moore (191 of 192 NFL pass catchers)
I don't know that there is less subjective way to rank them. They have different roles in a passing game. Passer rating basically measures the juice derived for the passing game when you are targeted.
I think that's also a near ideal scenario for how many targets they would hope these guys earn in 2025.
Knox only had 35 targets so I deemed the sample size(and projected usage at half the targets of Kincaid) was too small to rank him but he was at a decent 94.4.
As noted, Moore was one of the very least effective WR's in the NFL last season. He ranked 191 of 192 qualifying receiving targets. Brutally bad.
Shakir(47 of 192) is the only one of these guys who ranked top 100 in the NFL last year. 🤢
And for people who want Palmer or Moore adjusted for having different QB's..........that's not really the way it works. There were more than 70 receiving targets who had a higher passer rating when targeted than Allen (101.4) and Herbert (101.7) had as passers. Obviously Shakir is not better than Allen. The Bills targets beyond Shakir are all players most teams would want to be 3rd to 6th options in the passing game.
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9 hours ago, nuklz2594 said:
steelers after trading pickens
Yeah, DK is on another level than anything the Bills have but the rest of that room is washed up Bob Woods and some nobodies.
Does look like the Bills are going to go into another season without any WR on the roster who'd ever put up even 900 receiving yards in any NFL season after going most of 40 years where they always had at least one WR who had put up at least 1,000 at some point in their career.
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29 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
Take the non- head cases off the list: Sanders and Wallace
Add: Diontae Johnson and Martavius Bryant
I'd add Plaxico didn't shake up the locker room, like Brown or Pickens.
Steelers find talent, gotta give them thag, but they're the "all about me" WRs. Growing list recently.
And their pick from Michigan LY, was just flat out lazy putting in the mental work.
I think it's more likely that Diontae Johnson and Martavis Bryant were just washing out.
Both had already been providing diminishing returns with Pittsburgh and were passing that 26 year old male physical peak age where the players who aren't taking care of their bodies start declining suddenly.
Pickens is 24. Johnson and Bryant were at their peaks at that age.
You know what WR teams really should avoid? Former Buffalo Bills.
Bob Woods is the only one of like 20 I can remember that didn't disappoint or just continue to suck elsewhere.
That goes back to your point that Pittsburgh finds WR talent. Buffalo does not.
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7 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:
OMG WHY WOULDN'T WE DO THIS!!!!!!!!!!!
Pittsburgh's diva receivers ALWAYS do well after they leave.
Antonio Brown.
Did I miss all of the other Pitt WR's that didn't do well that would make acquiring a Pitt WR a cautionary tale?
Plaxico Burress immediately put up 1250 for the Giants and went on to catch the game winning TD to beat the undefeated Patriots in the SB.
Emmanuel Sanders played tremendous in Denver.
Mike Wallace had four 800-1,000 yard seasons after he left Pittsburgh.
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Just now, HappyDays said:
He was in town to see Shane Gillis' show. It was unrelated to his release. I was told he was shocked to get this news today, didn't see it coming.
I certainly did not see it coming. He was really bad last year for Jacksonville..........but for a team to eat $20M on a mid-level contract like that is a drastic maneuver. I figured they'd give it one more try and hope that the trash he put on tape was just a fluke. Apparently didn't take them as long as it did for Beane to realize he was a disaster as a WR2.
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Except literally all of this is nonsense and wreaks of your typical desperation after being wrong about something…so theres that too lmao. 🤡 show continues. Even after all this time the severity of your little man complex never ceases to amaze
✌️
Like I've told you before, I call out your BS because you have potential to be much more than a checker-playing thumb fisher.
When you hyperbolize and gaslight and lie it undermines your effort and keeps you at the kids table of the discussion.
The casual Bills fan wants the answer to the Bills playoff woes to be one simple thing.
It's not.
They need to be better wrt personnel and coaching on both sides of the ball in the playoffs.
Their WR room lacks difference making talent.
To a lesser extent, but notably, so does their pass rush.
Their young OC's have been out-coached 3 years in a row by savvy veteran DC's in Spags and Anarumo.
Their defensive coaching has not been able to throw curveballs at KC or Cinci in the postseason the way Spags has.
However.....
They've thrown 6 significant personnel chips at the pass rush this offseason.
Brady is more "seasoned" after twice falling prey to Spags.
And they've brought in respected defensive minds from very different systems to hopefully address the lack of variety on D.
It might not work but those are moves that should yield improvement.
All they've done to address WR is replace Cooper and Hollins with a couple of 500 yard veterans who haven't produced as WR1's or WR2's at the NFL level. Let alone be difference makers. Moore in particular has horrible analytics.
Coleman and Kincaid *could* improve but they were just terrible late last year. If they were defensive players they wouldn't be getting handed jobs back with little or no competition like they are now.
The failure to address the WR issue is glaring. Beane knows it's the area of need he hasn't done the most at. That's why he is testy about it.
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6 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:
He's not really a fit for what we're trying to be in the WR room --- "positionless". But he'd be our best blocking WR and a downfield threat still- at $6m or less its worth a shot
They can't go back to the mistakes. They already are taking a risk bringing in Moore.......who had 8 INT's thrown his way when targeted last year. Gabe was good for 6 in both 2022 and 2023.
Jacksonville got the whole Gabe experience last year. He had some killer drops, errors and then would catch a TD after the game was out of hand and pad his stats. That's why they ate $20M.
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2 minutes ago, Bills AFC East said:
Gabe is too inconsistent. He's had some great moments, but he's unreliable.
He's "too" a lot of things that aren't good.
He doesn't have professional level hands, he is not a good route runner and he was consistently not where Josh Allen expected him to be.
They didn't "improve" the WR corps last offseason but they got rid of a lot of interceptions when they let Gabe go.
Those turnovers were critical to regular season performance. You are still going to get beaten deeper in the playoffs without difference makers but we did see the difference not turning the ball over made during the regular season.
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1 hour ago, JoeF said:
Don't let him enter the building
I had heard that Gabe was in Buffalo yesterday from an attorney friend........I don't know why, maybe it was just an event or something but then to hear he was cut today I half expect Beane to offer Wrong Way Gabe $6M or something to come back. He always finds a way to overpay former Bills.
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13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
16th most points ever...33rd highest PPG (takes games played out of the equation) is historically great...its the literal definition of that.
You want to disagree then that’s your right. But it doesn’t change the fact they are both 2 historically great numbers.
Wrong again lol. Bills had BOTH the most points AND the highest PPG in the AFC Playoffs.
Everything I said was a fact. You took one subjective line about the facts and made it the entirety of facts while ignoring the long list of actual facts I listed...and why...because your read the facts wrong in the first place that started this initial convo with your initial incorrect reply where you missed the fact I literally said in the AFC. It’s your typical muddy the water schtick to mask when you make mistakes like you did earlier.
This has run its course ✌️
You literally said it was a fact that the 2024 Bills were the 16th greatest offense. There was no context behind it, which is the first indicator that something is subjective and not fact. Then said your fact was a subjective take not a fact as if you hadn't lead with "facts".
Shystie.
And like I said........you claimed they had the "most points" in the AFC playoffs without noting that they played one more game than anyone else. THEN you said that you had stated points per game. That was a lie.
Shystie
I didn't dispute that the Bills scored slightly more per game. But it's ridiculous to take pride in a 2 game sample size versus a 3 game sample size when the other team literally outscored you in one of those games. Just clownish attempt to manipulate an argument(which wasn't with me, btw, you were trying to pull your BS on someone else).
I am just pointing out that you are full of sh!t and regularly, intentionally use false information in your arguments. I called you out. As I often do. And you don't like it.
So peace out TO YOU, shyster. 😂
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3 hours ago, finn said:
Greatness isn't PPG or YPG, as I'm sure you're saying. It's making the plays in the clutch. Last year, despite the 4th down blitz, Allen threw a catchable ball. Kincaid dropped it. The year before, Allen threw a perfect ball to Diggs. Diggs dropped it. In the 2022 regular season, Allen threw arguably the most beautiful and clutch ball of his career against the Jets, a 60-yard dime to Davis with the game on the line. Davis dropped it.
Lesson: the Bills need more clutch receivers, aka great receivers, in the most accurate definition of the word. I happen to believe Shakir is one, and that he would have made that catch in 2023 in the end zone if Dawkins could have held his block a microsecond longer. I also think Ty Johnson may be clutch, as Hollins proved to be, surprisingly. (Naturally, Beane dumped him.) Palmer? Coleman? Samuels? Knox? Ronnie Harmon, out of retirement?
If only Allen could play quarterback AND receiver...☹️
Yep. Allen has had his moments where he's made mistakes in the clutch. But when they've failed in the clutch it's WAY too often because of the pass catchers. The 2023 loss to KC was largely on Allen and Brady (with an assist to Chris Jones) for foiling their idiotic play call after the 2 minute warning. But Allen made the play this year. If Kincaid just catches that arm punt it may go down as one of the greatest plays by Allen, recovering from being fooled by a great call by Spags.
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12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Except its not...and who cares, this is a subjective opinion.
The point was, remains, and still is what I already said. Bills scored the most points in the AFC both in regular season and the post season...yet we did NOT emerge from the AFC. Meanwhile...we did give up 32 points to a team that did not score 30 the entire year and was down 34-0 at one point in their very next game.
But please...lets keep carrying on splitting hairs about where the 16th highest scoring offense in NFL history subjectively falls on the all time greatest list as if that matters at all in relation the original point.
It matters because when put in context.........they scored the 33rd all-time most points per game in the 5th highest scoring year ever........what that tells you is that it was NOT a historic offensive season. Not even the Bills best offense ever when you consider the point differential versus league average. That was the 1975 Bills.
Your point about the Bills scoring the most points in the AFC playoffs doesn't account for the fact that they were the only team that played 3 games. I mean you can't even pick a lane.
And after insisting your stats....err "facts".......were definitive proof that poor defense deserves all the blame for the team not advancing to a SB then you suddenly are asking for subjectivity on your facts. 😂
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4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I pride myself on being honest and using numbers to support my argument. With that being said, I guess that we should look at the offensive numbers with Cooper and without to confirm what I said was true. I threw out the last New England game completely so as to not alter anything. There were exactly 8 other regular season games with him playing and 8 without him playing.
In the 8 games that Cooper played, the Bills threw for 264.4 yards per game and scored 35.5 PPG.
In the 8 games that Cooper did not play, the Bills threw for 203.6 yards per game and scored 28.1 PPG.
For those of you that don’t think that 7.4 PPG difference is significant, the Bills finished 2nd in the NFL at 30.6 PPG. If you subtracted 7.4 PPG and were at 23.2 PPG they would have finished 12th.
Don’t let people try to put their feelings in the way of facts. There they are. Do with them what you will…
Shame on you @Mikey152 for fake-claiming a lie from Kirby.
Brandon Beane himself has literally bragged about scoring 7 more points per game with Cooper as a defense for trading the 3rd round pick.
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14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
16th most points all time...that is the 16th greatest offense in NFL history in my book...Which is both subjective and an opinion, but not even remotely close to a lie. You can disagree with it and have a different opinion of the offenses historical place...but ease up on the lying accusations when this convo started because you couldn't read the post correctly
You said one thing.........said that you said another thing altogether because it didn't track........and now you are trying to meld them together in a form that doesn't account for the difference in games played in the last 4 seasons compared to the 16 and 14 game seasons post merger.
It's comically shystie and further undermines your greatly exaggerated takes.
3 of the top 5 scoring seasons(per game) since the merger have been since 2020. The Bills have ranked very near the top in scoring in 2 of those years. They had a great 8 game run. If they hadn't struggled in Baltimore, Houston and NY because of bad WR play they might have been closer to the Lions. And those defense's weren't even playing that well at the time. Baltimore was near the bottom in pass defense at the time.
Receiving talent on offense and pass rushers on defense have been the biggest shortcomings. It's just funny that when the defense was at the top of the league they were throwing the kitchen sink at pass rush but when the offense has the same issue.........high rank but a clear weakness........they aren't doing the same.
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17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
And my original points/facts were we were the highest scoring AFC team both in reg season and postseason both in PPG and Points and 16th most points all time...
Dude you literally said the "16th greatest offense in NFL history" and are trying to lie now.
Like I said.......the hyperbole is not necessary.
They've had 2 great scoring seasons and 2 great points allowed seasons since 2020.
They simply haven't been good enough on either side of the ball when it counts.
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23 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:
Interestingly enough, I changed it in statmuse and the Bills don’t appear at 22.
So I think the reality is they may be far lower.
This data says the 2024 team was 33rd all time........in the 5th highest scoring per game season since the merger.
https://mcubed.net/nfl/ptmpfpg.shtml
Says the 2020 team was 29th........in the highest scoring season since the merger.
And the 1975 Bills team is 50th.
The 1975 team is actually the highest scoring relative to the league that year with 9.4 points above league average.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/scoring.htm
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6 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:
I think there may be a flaw in using “total points” when the number of games has changed when deciding “the greatest offenses ever.”
The 2024 Bills rank 22nd by PPG.
Well the lowest scoring 16 game schedule team on that statmuse data is 31.9 points per game............so I don't know if it's even 22nd.
And everything is relative. 2024 was the 5th highest scoring ppg season since the AFL/NFL merger.
If you weren't the #1 scoring team in your season don't tell me how all-time great you are.
Don't need that hyperbole. They were very good.
Their defense was also that good in 2021 and 2022.
Point being........gotta' be that good deep into the playoffs for it to matter much historically.
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5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Oh boy...so let me see...first you dont read the post correctly and incorrectly refute what was the actual facts. But rather than just chalk that up to a misread goof, you want to still find a way to be right about something...Ok...but except...well...you're not 😬
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-highest-scoring-offenses-by-year
16th all time. 2024 Lions were number 4 FYI...hence why Bills were #2 despite being the 16th most points all time.
Bonus fun fact: Bills scored the most total points in 2024 between reg season and postseason combined, yes more than the SB Champ Eagles.
Batting .000% today sport
Yeah you were confused.
You can't compare 16 game seasons to 17 game seasons using bulk points.
And since you chose points as the primary data.......it throws the ppg data off as well.
Example........The 1975 Bills also scored 30 points per game(420 with an 8-6 record).
They are not listed in the ppg, which falls below 30 when you get to 25th on the data you chose.
For those who sit in the lower bowl, where’s your ideal view?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I get a kick out of the people who always insist that whatever sh!tty seats they have are the best place to watch the game from so this thread has been fun. Virgil had a particular area request but people gotta' chime in about areas he's not interested in. "Endzone is best" 😂
But the reality is that the closer to midfield is obviously best for seeing the whole field.........and since the front row in the new stadium is about 12' off of ground level as opposed to like 5' it is in the current stadium.........there are no more of those badly obstructed lower seats where the clowns that ham for the camera but can't actually tell what's going on on the field sit.
So @Virgil if you can get halfway up the lower bowl and between the 30's that's a great seat for being able to see the whole field and have horizontal and vertical perspective etc..