Utah John

You're a brave person to make down to the minute flight reservations the way airlines are doing lately. Any kind of weather anywhere in the country throws their entire schedule off. If you're in Ashland VA you probably can get a direct flight to Buffalo, but anyone making connections ought to leave a day earlier than you'd think necessary.

This season has worked for the first time the way Beane wants the roster to be built. Except for QB, I don't expect any Bills to get post-season honors, although Taron Johnson and maybe one of the OTs could make a case. But like all the other top players on the team, he's not a superstar. The Bills are built to have A to A minus starters (no A plus or better, except at QB) and a depth roster with younger players on their rookie contracts, who are learning and will be able to step in. A plus players cost too much, and the delta between what an A player brings and what an A plus player brings, is not worth the delta in what they both cost. Also all those A to A minus players bond together since no one has a prima dona mentality. Beane broke his system when he brought in Von Miller, and it might have worked out except for the injury. Also trading for Amari Cooper was an unBeane move, but it was worth it because Cooper was cheap in terms of dollars, not bad for a rental. We'll miss that 3rd rounder though. Cooper isn't getting targeted because he's drawing defenders to him, and the other receivers and backs are the beneficiaries. It was clear from the start of the McBeane tenure that these two are building a dynasty, a team that can win season after season even if players are injured or lost as FAs, or just let go when their rookie contracts expire. (The players know what's going on and they're OK because they see how well former Bills get paid by other teams.)

The NFL should give the 2 seed the advantage of playing on Saturday, so the winners of those two games get an extra day to prepare for the next round. That would be a well-deserved benefit prize for getting the 2 seed. Unfortunately while the AFC's 2 seed has the second best record, in the NFC the 5 seed (Lions or Vikings) will have the second best record. So the NFL might not want to give the 2 seed (Philly) the advantage. Like most teams, the Bengals have a lot of variability in how well they play. At times their defense has looked incredibly inept, but at other times it resembles a professional football team's unit. I have a lot of confidence that Brady will find ways for Allen to pick it apart no matter how well prepared the Bengals think they are. They still have an excellent QB and two great WRs. If we play them it will again come down to whether our own defense -- in particular the D line -- shows up. Their poor play in the playoff game against the Bengals two years ago was the biggest reason we lost.

Last year the Bills got the 2 seed by beating Miami in the last game of the season. If they had lost that game, they would have missed the playoffs entirely. (They would have been 10-7 instead of 11-6, with Miami winning the division and three other teams beating out the Bills for the WC slots.) That was with last year's defense that was very strong, losing to KC in the playoffs only after massive injuries on the defense. This year the Bills, ho-hum, got the 2 seed again. How boring, how lack of progress, we're doomed, fire McD, etc. Well, no. They won the division with five games to go and kept on rolling. They challenged the Chiefs for the 1 seed all season long, at least after mid-October, and it was only through a series of miracles (for KC) that the Chiefs lost only the one game. Even with the patched-up defense that has trouble stopping the run, they are a much better team this year.

Yep. This was the turning point in the season. Allen played like crap, completing 9 or 30 passes (THIRTY PERCENT) when short passes were wide open all game. I have no idea what he thought he was doing. After that, dangerous Josh turned into smart and dangerous Josh, the player I hope we'll see for a decade to come.

I think saying McD is "a defensive-minded coach whose defense is a major weak point" is putting the most negative spin possible on what the Bills have done so far this year. It's accurate to say he's a defensive-minded coach, but what he did was take a shell of a formerly good defense that had been shredded by age, FA, and injuries, and rebuild it with new players into a credible if flawed unit. What does he bring to the table? Well, obviously, 13 wins so far and a defense that finds ways to win most of the time, while the offense almost always wins. It's an impressive achievement and a tribute to his skill.

McD cost us two games and had nothing whatsoever to do with the thirteen wins. OK, sure. Or, maybe McD and Babich patched up a defense gutted by departures and turned it into a credible, if flawed, unit. Maybe McD's organizational skills and leadership provided the support the team needed while it spent September figuring out what it was good at. Even supposing the Bills did get the 1 seed, they would still need to beat two good teams to get to the SB. As it is, they'll play whoever falls to the 7 seed, and then have to face -- guess what, two good teams to get to the SB.

Absolutely the Bills should be giving Bishop reps against New England. Despite their poor record, as we saw last week their rookie QB is a real talent, and it will be good for Bishop to work against good players. He has improved quite a bit over the course of the season, and I think he'll be much better after next year's OTAs and a full training camp.

I don't get why so many here are so friggin insulting and negative all the time.

I'm not sure the Bills intend to even have a WOF in the new stadium. (One way to not have OJ Simpson's name up there, I suppose.) But if they do, I would like to see both Poyer and Hyde up there, next to each other.

Actually Beck Water is correct. I didn't know it before but apparently it's true that players released after the trade deadline must go through waivers. Maybe it's to keep teams from trying some kind of underhanded deal. Also this means the released player's contract remains in effect which protects the players.

The talk is that he'd be released, not waived. If he's waived then the team records come into play. If he's released outright, he would be free to make the best deal he could. He might choose to go back to the Ravens or he might not. Since his existing contract would no longer be in effect, it could come down to dollars in a bidding war. Yes, Poyer played great for the Bills for years. He deserves the WOF. I didn't say Bernard killed his career. I have noticed that since his wedding, he hasn't been playing as well. Correlation is not causation of course. It could be he's playing through an injury.

Conventional weather models, including ensemble models, are essentially skill-less two weeks out. Analog models might be useful if they're able to predict a blocking pattern or other stable situation. There's no harm in looking at whatever tool is available, but don't make big plans based on what's available. Check back in a week.

Even if the Pats don't need a QB, the top pick in the draft is worth a lot more in trade value. I realize the Bills will be sitting a lot of starters next week, but the Pats might not be interested in winning. Could be a very ugly game.

There are three former Bills players starting on the Dolphins defense. One is Jordan Poyer, whom the Bills let go because they could see he was aging and slowing. Too bad because he was a great player for the Bills and was foundational to the resurrection of the team. He isn't playing well for the Dolphins and I hope he can get through the season without injury and then retire. If the Bills have a Wall of Fame in the new stadium, I think Poyer deserves a place on it. The second is Siran Neal, a safety and mostly a special teamer for the Bills. Would he be better than Hamlin or Bishop? I think the Bills saw him as a old player (30) and they wanted to get younger. Still, this has been a much better year for the Bills than I think they expected, and I wonder if they would have held on to Neal if they'd known how it would go with their safeties. The third is Tyrel Dodson, who's lighting it up for the Dolphins after being released by the Seahawks for no apparent reason -- he was the Seahawks leading tackler when they let him go. The Bills could have kept Dodson but he was looking for a bigger contract than they wanted to (or could afford to) pay. I would love to have him back since Milano is taking so long to get back to speed, and Bernard doesn't seem to be as good since he got married. Maybe the Dolphis can return the favor. There's talk that if Miami is eliminated from the playoffs, they'll release Calais Campbell so he can sign with a contender. He's old but still huge and still effective. He would patch the biggest weakness of the Bills.

Josh should be in long enough to hand off to Frank Gore Jr. He played with his dad, and that would be a nice touch.

Huh. If Trubisky is that good, maybe we trade Allen.....

Well, Allen doesn't have Henry but he's got Cook and two other very good backs. I think the difference there is that without the Bills strong O line, Cook doesn't shine like he has been doing. (Also Cook has 15 rushing TDs and Henry has only 14. As good as Henry is, Cook ain't chopped liver.)

It seems to me that Bergey's career was a lot better than some of the men who've been selected to the HOF, but OTOH maybe he should be considered why the Hall of Very Good should exist too, at least on paper. Bergey was not defined by his statistics, which were very good, or his awards (All-Pro, Pro Bowl, etc) which were also remarkable, but by his ferocious reputation and his leadership. Maybe the HOF voters should ask themselves when they consider a HOF candidate, is he better than Bill Bergey? Does this guy's memory and reputation stand out any better than Bergey's? If not, then a no vote for the HOF.

If the Bills need to win to retain the 2 seed, they'll game plan enough to be pretty sure of winning. If not, they'll go very vanilla. Maybe even sit Josh Allen for the second half if they have a good lead. Looking ahead at the weather forecast for Sunday early afternoon, it's gonna be interesting. Quite warm for late December (high 50s) with rain, and with 10-15 mph winds from the south or southeast (hence the higher temperatures). The stadium has tricky winds even when the prevailing winds are from the west and straight down the field, but with winds blowing across the rim of the stadium and then swirling, it will be harder to connect on touch passes and deep outs. It's time to turn even more to the RBs. I would like to see Cook protected for the playoffs so paging Ray Davis, paging Ty Johnson.

I keep expecting an NFL-intensity tackle to snap Worthy in half. In the meantime, Coleman is settling in nicely. He has to settle for getting his share, just like everyone not named Shakir or Kincaid, whom I think Josh tends to look for first, not that I blame him. I think Coleman will turn out to be a great WR2. The WR1 will be drafted next spring. Shakir will be one of the best slot receivers in the league. The Bills offense is going to get even better next year. Carter looked pretty darn good before his injury. For whatever reason, he hasn't had the same impact since returning. Then again, no one on the Bills D line has looked good for the past two months.

If Detroit's defense wasn't so ravaged by injuries, and if Montgomery was still playing, then a cipher like Bridgewater could indeed win a playoff game against one of the weaker teams in the NFC playoffs. I'm thinking that the injuries are going to open the door for the Vikings to steal the division and push the Lions into a wildcard slot, probably the 5 seed, where they'll play the 4 seed, either the NFCW or NFCS pretender. That's a game the fully-healthy Lions could romp through if they still had all their players, even without Goff. A few years ago the Raiders put everything together and had a great record preparing for the playoffs. Then Carr (their QB) broke an arm or leg, and that was that. They washed out in the first round, then fell apart. I don't think the same thing will happen to Detroit going forward, but I really feel sorry for the team and the city that they had so much working for them before the injuries hit.

Whew. Red Bills, green Jets, would look like everyone forgot Christmas is over.

Spencer Brown's rise into one of the better right tackles... Well, how about Spencer Brown's rise into one of the best right tackles... So Penei Sewell is acknowledged as the best RT but how many other are out there that you'd take over Brown? An occasional hold? I don't remember him being called for ANY holding penalties. As for lining up off the line, he is far less egregious than the clown the Chiefs have at RT, who lines up back from the line AND jumps way early on almost all pass plays. And gets away with it, all the time.

Saw that coming.