Mr. WEO
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Posts posted by Mr. WEO
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On 4/20/2024 at 10:12 AM, WotAGuy said:
There’s also the growing number of guaranteed contracts that require all the funds to be put into escrow. That, plus all the cash outlays for regular operations probably presents some cash flow challenges. Even though the team is worth a ton on paper, that’s not ready cash needed to accommodate everything going on.The TV/merch/licensing money covers all expenses. The rest is free money.
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23 hours ago, Billy Claude said:
Well, not to nitpick, but you were the one referring to how much money Mr. Irrelevant in your original argument.
I mentioned him because even his contract is worth far more than that guy would have gotten had he stayed in college. round 4,5 guys would be sacrificing huge sums to stay in college for NIL crumbs for another year or two.
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15 hours ago, Billy Claude said:
I feel a that this is not the relevant cost benefit analysis. Since only about 30 to 40 percent of 7th round picks actually make a roster, the majority are getting practice squad money, not a million a year although this is still more than most NIL money. More importantly, most NFL careers end not because of age but because the NFL decides you are not good enough. For the majority of 7th round draft choices delaying your entry in the NFL will not affect your lifetime NFL earnings at all, simply push it back a year.
So if you are enjoying life in college I can understand why you would stay one more year. Staying comes with risks such as a bad year or injuries making one less attractive for the NFL, however, declaring for the draft if you expect to be a 7th rounder also comes with the risk that you will not be drafted and there is a chance to improve your draft stock also.
day 3 of the NFL draft includes rounds 4,5,6,7.....
But yes, if your are, at best, potential 7th round talent--might as well take a few thousand bucks a year in college, because you're never getting to the NFL.
15 hours ago, JerseyBills said:That's a great question and I certainly don't have exact figures but I'm sure they're treated like royalty on campus - free cars, meals, autographs etc etc
Might not be millions, but enough where them and their family are comfortable and taken care of for their final year, all while potentially moving their draft stock up.
I provided the figures. It's not nothing, but day 3 type guys aren't getting much. couple thousand dollars.
14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:You say that.... there are a fair few 4 and 5 star recruits going on day 3 this year. Some of that might be covid legacy. Justin Shorter was a 5 star as well wasn't he? Maybe thats a temporary thing. I dunno. But the fact is underclassmen coming out are way down this year.
Allowing for outliers, yes. Aren't many 4/5 in the day 3 cohort, typically.
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15 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:
What? The team has had a grand total of TWO owners in 65 years and the first Owner is dead! It’s hardly been a revolving door.
let promo yell at the fans...
15 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:Why would anyone want to pay $925 million dollars (and probably be asked to help with finances for the team) and have no say in anything?
Because it is the only zero risk investment on the planet. It has a guaranteed annual return and a guaranteed appreciation. Who cares about about having a say?--you get a sweet owners box experience. you are IN the club...
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22 hours ago, JerseyBills said:
Was omw home from work, listening to WFAN and they were playing Joe Schoens live media scrum.
Couldn't listen to whole thing but one statement really stood out for the whole draft and every team.
He stated there was either 140 or 170 (can't remember exact #) players they had a draftable grade on, that are staying in school this year, majority because the NIL deals and ability to make $$, in his opinion
So this is the bad side to the NIL deals. Going to make GMs lives that much more difficult, especially on day 3, where Beane has been stellar.
Just wanted to drop this nugget, as it kinda changes the whole landscape of the draft especially hearing it straight from a GM.
It'll only get worse as years go on imo...
how much real NIL money are Day 3 type draftees bringing in right now??
5 star recruits (top 32 of them) mirror the top 32 draftees typically. The NIL dropoff to 4 star players is huge. Day 3 would include few, if any of 4 or 5 star players.
So how would NIL affect this at all for day 3? According a group that monitors this stuff (SANIL), the a QB in top 25 PFF grade gets about $350K a year. a top 25 TE will get 100K.
once you get to the Day 3 guys (PFF >150), the amounts go to $50k for QB, all the way down to $10K for TE. Compare this to Mr. Irrelevant, who gets $1,000,000 a year for 4 years.
Therefore any draftable player should forego NIL and enter the draft for a lot more money.
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Given Beane's penchant for bringing in end of life WRs, someone needs to stop this in its tracks...
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the guy on the left?
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2 hours ago, PBF81 said:
To counter, it's one thing to not win a Super Bowl without a great QB, it's another to fail miserably.
In 11 seasons without Brady, his HOF QB, he posted losing records 8 times with unimpressive win totals of 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, and 8 wins. 49-81 total (.377)
In two of the other three seasons he got absolutely dusted in the wild-card round, once by Bledsoe's Pats, a team/QB he could only go 5-11 with, and the other he didn't even make the playoffs, getting edged by Tony Sparano & Chad Pennington.
This has been covered over and over. Yeah, HOF HCs without their HOF QBs struggle to win Super Bowls. Alert the press...again.
Was Brady a HOF level QB when he was drafted? His 1st season? For those first 3 SB wins? No he wasn't.
It's a "counter" not worth making.
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On 4/17/2024 at 3:15 PM, BillsFan4 said:
That’s my guess too. I think Adams really liked Granato and wanted to give him every opportunity to figure it out. I also doubt Adams was anxious to go to Pegula and say “hey, I know I extended Granato a year before we needed to but now I want to fire him before that extension even starts…”. lol
I actually feel like this rebuild is progressing as it should for the most part. Granato was the right coach at the right time when he was hired. He did an excellent job rebuilding a bunch of broken players, developing the young guys and raising expectations. But like most successful rebuilds in the NHL, I think the Sabres now need that “win now” veteran coach to take the next step.
sounding like the opposite is true. He was way too soft--especially on the younger players.
he had to go--should have done it sooner.
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1 hour ago, mrags said:
Because maybe he’s debating in if he wants to actually risk coming back or not. Maybe Beane has a number in place what we can afford to pay to Hyde and are allowing Hyde to look on the open market for more and if he doesn’t find it, he’s always available to come back at the rate we’re offering.
oh ok, I didn't realize he's testing the market.
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2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
I would argue that Brady was also mostly a game manager plus in that 2018 Super Bowl run as well. The Pats team was ground and pound with a great defense and a clutch QB that didn’t make mistakes. That 2018 team was built much more similar to those early 2001-2004 teams.
I think the narrative has shifted far too much against Bill B as the way some fans and pundits make it seem as though “Brady was the system” which ignores the fact that 4 of those titles including the last one were won on the strength of great defenses, great special teams and a strong ground game complemented by a QB who took care of the ball and made plays when needed.
It is not a knock on Brady as Billy B had to shift the team away from a defense oriented approach starting in 2007 and all the way up until about 2017 and in that time they made 5 Super Bowls and won 2 with a team built around Brady and a powerful offense. The defenses were not dominant defenses in that era but rather more so solid units whose strength was forcing field goals in the redzone and creating turnovers.
Agreed.
HOF HCs and QBs are often paired. neither happens without the other.
Claims that Bellichick couldn't put together (i.e. GM the team) a roster are bizarre rewritings of history. Maybe that helps other sleep at night.
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1 minute ago, Augie said:
The more power he got, the more he messed it up. I’m just looking at the facts. He just kept getting worse. But tell yourself whatever helps you sleep.
these are simple questions, easily answered with a review of the facts.
when did he get all the power? what was the result in their record from then on? he's been running that roster for decades
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3 minutes ago, Augie said:
Yes, he and his dog were terrible GM’s.
I’ll give him all the credit in the world for being one of the greatest defensive minds in NFL history. He’s also arrogant as hell and could have used some help with the draft instead of sending everyone home.
To say a 6th round QB and not mention he was also the GOAT is hardly a fair and balanced approach.
was Brady the GOAT from 2001-2004? he sure wasn't.
who put all those rosters together that fielded the GOAT and all those PB/AP/SB winners?
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1 minute ago, Augie said:
It’s not that he couldn’t match the success. Because he’s a terrible GM and has no sense of offense, Belichick was a cellar dweller at the end.
BTW - McD went to the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor at QB, so he’s not “just Josh.”
But then BB won 3 SBs in his first 5 years with a 6th round QB.
Terrible GM? In points scored and allowed, NE had a top 10 Offense in 18 of Brady's 19 years (top 5 11 years) and top 10 Defense 17 years (top 5 for 8 of those years). He had 38 players over that time that were either AP/PB/both.
Obviously that roster is trash now...
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5 minutes ago, Augie said:
Lombardi was ~60 years ago, when passing was relatively rare and Payton was also bad with Brees. (I tend to think he’s a bit overrated.) But Tony Dungy had very competitive teams without Manning, unlike Belichick who is last in the division without Brady.
Dungy won 2 playoff games in 6 years in Tampa. BB inherited a 3-13 teams and ultimately got to the playoff and won a game with Vinny Testaverde...
Bill Walsh was a genius because he retired before he had to coach again without a HOF QB (he was 8-24 with Steve DeBerg)
It's always a pretty weak argument to point out a HOF HC couldn't match the success he had without his HOF QB....
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19 minutes ago, TOboy said:
Whether he comes back or not I hope and fully expect Buffalo to come out and support. Micah’s been a great player, but also such a class act in this community.
He’s a FA so they didn’t release him. I believe he was undecided if he was going to continue playing. Hopefully if he does it’s back in Buffalo as our D could use his leadership.
Did he tell the Bills he was done playing at the end of the season? At the time, most headlines went with "Bills release Hyde..."
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3 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:
You forgot the future “McDermott without Allen”
no rings, no future
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12 hours ago, mrags said:
I think IF he continues to play, he’s got a deal in place with Beane that he will be a Bill. Honestly, I hope it’s for a backup role as I worry for his health going forward. He probably shouldn’t be playing anymore. But if he wants to play backup/3S specialist, he hole helping these young kids we have at the position I wouldn’t complain. Hopefully get this guy a ring. He deserves it more than just about anyone on the team.
why wouldn't they have just signed him to another year instead of letting him go?
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17 hours ago, Augie said:
That’s okay, it’s probably not high on his priority list.
Belichick showed who he was without Brady, and he’s the one who wanted all the control. They might have a better roster if Belichick had let Nick Caserio build a team like he has in Houston, but Belichick thinks he’s smarter than everyone else.
Well, that is on Belichick then. He’s the one who picked the OC’s, and he even put a DC in the role of OC. Brady was the magic on offense.
I’ll give Belichick credit for having been a defensive genius, a guy who stole a SB from us because Kelly wouldn’t just keep handing the ball to Thurman.
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Same for Lombardi without Starr. Dungy without Manning. Payton without Brees........
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Kraft will never get another ring.
but he can always get a tug while Madame Lotus wears 5 of them…
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On 4/16/2024 at 7:18 AM, Coach Tuesday said:
Great article from the Athletic. Basically says that teams routinely over-estimate their own ability to predict player performance and as a result overestimate the value of their own specific picks. Instead, they should maximize the number of lottery tickets they’re buying.
Thoughts?
it's a great article.
the most eye opening part is the claim that almost all teams are aware of this specific paper on maximizing draft strategy---they simply ignore it because every FO thinks they are smarter than every other FO.
The theory proves itself every year. These GMs/HCs/owners aren't very good at drafting players based on their own research---they simply won't/can't acknowledge this.
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9 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:
I fully agree, I understand it should be a certain level of frustration with him, but some talk like he is worthless. He's had some flashes here and there, also I for one thought that INT he made in the EZ against Steelers in the playoffs was a damn good play.
Rudolph threw it right to him
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Mashallah, I guess....
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20 hours ago, DJB said:
I had no idea that TBD had so many lawyers, judges and forensic analysts that posted on here
That case didn't require much of any of those...
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Draft, Here’s What’s Going to Happen
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
LAM(draft)P!!