Setrett

Here's one man's estimate. It's not rigorous, but it will provide a sense of the odds. The chance the Bills beat the Broncos is approximately 15%. The chance they beat the Packers at home is maybe 20%. The chance they beat Oakland is 90% given they've only won about 10% of their games. The Bills have never beaten Brady in Gillette and have only won about 10% of their meetings total. Let's say NE sitting starters and their homefield advantage is a wash. The chance of winning all four is the product of the individual probabilities or about 1/4 of one percent. In other words, the chances are about 1 in 400.

They did indeed say that the kid from Buffalo, New York was representing the Philadelphia Eagles. I don't know whether to be upset at the slight or happy that his parents steered him away from constant Buffalo heartbreak. Though, he probably just moved from Philly or something.

For all of the reasons already noted, I think it quite likely that Buffalo will not land one of the remaining "big-name" coaches. While hiring a big-name coach would increase the probability of winning football games A) it doesn't guarantee it and B) a big name coach isn't the only way to win football games. There are plenty of ways to skin a cat and a scarcity of head coaching positions available in the NFL. Everyone and their father would kill to be the head coach of an NFL team. We shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking nobody wants this job. Plenty of people would love to be the head coach of the Buffalo Bills. It just so happens that many of those people come without proven track records. Whomever we choose as the next coach will be a risky prospect. Either we take a less than ideal veteran (e.g. Martz, Fox, etc.) or we roll the dice on a young, hungry, up-and-comer with something to prove. But just because our choice comes with risk does not mean that we will be forever doomed to the catastrophic coaching graveyard. Their are many roads which lead to Rome.

I've asked myself that same question many times. All I can figure is that it's not a completely rational decision. I grew up as a kid following the Bills and I have ever since. I know the Bills history more than that of any of team. I've seen almost all of their games in the last decade and keep a detailed collection of all "highlights" from them for posterity. I wouldn't know how to switch to another team. I know I certainly wouldn't feel the same level of passion. So maybe one reason is that I don't feel as if I have any other option. On a deeper level, though, I believe that being a real fan means taking the good with the bad. I mean, think about how much meaning a Bills playoff apperance would have given this decade of ineptitude. There is no light without dark and it is seasons like these that give the good ones their meaning. I also tend to believe that we fans have a small part to play in helping the team along. I was actually in favor of walking out after the first quarter of last year's home game against New England to prompt Jauron's firing. If most of the fans had done that, we would have hit the team where it really hurt and changed the course of the organization. The walkout never came to pass, but I feel it would have had an even smaller chance of happening if I hadn't been on the message board advocating for action. The final reason is that regardless of how the team is doing, it's nice to go down to my city's Bills bar every Sunday, have some food and share an experience with other Bills fans. It's not always fun, but I suppose it beats having no sports community at all.

Dick Jauron say it' his fault and he needs to get the team better prepared. Trent Edwards says he needs to look at tape and see what he can improve. Fine. If no one wants to thrown anyone else under the bus, fire the whole lot of them. They keep admitting they're not gettin the job done. Case closed! Here's a idea. What if every Bills fan put $3 in an envelope c/o Bill Cowher? I'm sure there's enough of us to afford the coach even without Ralph Wilson.

Great!! How do I get on the email list??

This message is intended for Baltimore-area Bills fans. As I'm sure many of you know, our home for Bills games for the past few years, Fletchers, was closed last Sunday. The word I've received from an employee there is that the new owners have sold the bar back to the old owners and Fletchers will be closed for renovations starting October 1. This means that we will probably need a new home on Sundays at least for a few weeks. First, does anyone have any more information about what's happening at Fletchers than I do? Second, I wanted to garner suggestions for a new home for the season so we can get back together. Does anyone have any suggestions? We had about 11 at The Green Turtle on Sunday. - The Guy with the Tie

Oh, don't get me wrong. I think Dick Jauron needs to be fired. I'm just trying to figure out why the players to man support him if he's really the problem. Maybe they're scared of getting their asses chewed out every once in a while.

Deciding not to watch the Bills next year because of Dick Jauron assumes that he is the problem with the team. However, the players, some of whom seemed genuinely upset by losing, insist it's not the coach's fault. I have not heard a single Bills player who's given anything less than whole-hearted support for Dick Jauron. What are we to believe? Are our players playing poorly in a good system, playing well in a poor system, or playing poorly in a poor system? Donte Whitner suggests that it's the players who are underacheiving. I've yet to see a good answer to this question, but it means a lot regarding how we view next year.

Jauron admits to mistakes because he doesn't want the players to have to take all the heat. I've been calling for Jauron to lose his job because of his full body of work, but I don't believe the decision to throw in that position was stupid. If the Jets are expecting run, a pass could secure a first down with high probability and lock away the game in one play. The alternative is possibly punting the ball back to Farve with a minute to go. Does anyone remember the end of the first half? JP held on to the ball too long and didn't play safe football. He had more than enough time and made a critical blunder. The outcome was incredibly unlikely and you can't blame Jauron for Losman's screw-up. A coach has to trust his QB to make simple plays. It was JP's failure, not Jauron's. And for all the flak that Turk's been getting lately, I'm surprised more people aren't applauding taking the decision-making process out of his hands.

Wow, it's about time somebody said that. I'm in the same boat as you. Aside from vague images of good teams back when I was a kid too young to appreciate the game, all I've know from the Buffalo Bills is failure. I mentioned this in an earlier post, but I'll say it again. The past few seasons of heartbreaks have caused me to start hating football. I can't talk to my friends about the game without getting upset. There are some Sundays where I come home in such a horrible mood that it ruins the early part of the week for me. I am not willing to tolerate this forever. There is a point where I will break and not come back. Ralph Wilson had better get that point and quick. I'm still in favor of the boycott.

This thread has articulated some very reasonable arguments on both sides, i.e. that Toronto is necessary long-term to keep the team profitable in Buffalo versus Ralph Wilson is doing this just to make himself more money. Is there anyone out there with business or financial experience who can quantify for us the amount of profit the Bills would need to make to be kept in Buffalo with high probability ( > 80% ? ) after Ralph passes? This would have to be compared with relocation costs, stadium expenses, new tax structure, long-term economic viability, etc. in places like Toronto and LA. Once we have a ballpark number we can look at the amount of profit Ralph Wilson generates without the Toronto deal. If it's greater than the amount needed to keep the team in place, then Ralph should spend money on players and coaches up to that limit to make the team more competitive. Otherwise, he could be fairly criticized as being a crass capitalist acting only enhance his family's personal wealth. But without having access to some hard numbers, this seems like a tough question to resolve just by throwing arguments back and forth.

For those of you who didn't see this on Inside the NFL, Chris Collinsworth made the following statement: CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: In the history of the National Football League there has never been anything dumber than the Buffalo Bills selling out their home game against the Miami Dolphins to go play in Toronto and take the cash. Season over. Thank you very much, Buffalo Bills, don't know what to say... PHIL SIMMS: [interrupting] In history? In history!? CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: In the history of the NFL! WARREN SAPP: Tell us how you really feel! CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: [undeterred] The dumbest thing that's ever happened. PHIL SIMMS: You feel better? CHRIS COLLINSWORTH: I hope they spend the money wisely and get a nice car. I don't know what they're going to do. It's stupid.

I do believe the Bills want to get better, but it is obvious to anyone with a pulse that they are not. I do not believe they are heading in the right direction. They've lost 6 of 7 games. How can you possibly argue that in a year they were supposed to make the playoffs that they are headed in the right direction? There have been some good draft picks (Lynch, Edwards, McKelvin) and some bad ones (Losman, McCargo, Hardy). The players do seem to be working hard. Nobody is questioning that. But you claim that the Bills are trying to get better. Our argument has been that Ralph Wilson is NOT doing everything in his power to make this team better. Your players can have all the heart in the world, but without the right talent and the right direction a team will not rack up wins in a very competitive league. Here's immediately what Wilson could do to make the team better: - Bring in a REAL football GM to organize the team - Spend more money on a high-caliber coaching staff - Invest more in college scouting so that draft picks will become reliable assets - Lobby the NFL to include coaches and scouts under the salary cap If Wilson really and truly cared about doing something good for Buffalo right now, he would invest more of his money in fixing the institutional problems that keep this team out of the playoffs. If he has the ability to do this and chooses not to, then we fans must create the incentive for him to do so.

The last three posters just don't seem to grasp the root of the problem. Teams that fail to make the playoffs for nearly a decade (e.g. Buffalo, Detroit) in a league designed for parity suggest some kind of systematic failure. We're not crapping on the players since they haven't been here for the entire time; they just happen to be a part of this latest collapse. The problem is ownership and management. Unless something FUNDAMENTALLY changes, it's hard to see this team becoming a winner any time soon. If you can suggest a bigger motivational kick in the a$$ than a walkout, I'd love to hear it. Also, we're fans, not professional scouts or sports managers. We are allowed to sing the praises when teams are winning and call for change when they're losing. Ultimately, I hold the judgment of ownership and management to a higher standard than I do the judgment of fans. It's not unreasonable to expect them to be better and more forward-thinking than we are. After all, it's their job, not ours.

Consider that most of the tickets are probably already sold and we're close enough to New England that we risk having Patriots fans fill the stadium. I believe there's little we can do economically at this point for the Patriots game. I continue to support the walkout.

The goal has to be to prompt Ralph Wilson and Russ Brandon into action. We must consider the most effective way to do this. Doing something only in the parking lot or not showing up at all may be ignored or misinterpreted as low attendance for a team out of playoff contention or as result of harsh December weather. Wearing a specific color shirt is ambiguous to NFL fans who don't follow the Bills. Concession sales may put pressure on the team from a financial standpoint, but I believe the pressure needs to be greater. A walkout at the end of the first quarter sends a mighty powerful message. It says that the fans, who will visibly have the ability and desire to show up, will not continue to support the current operating structure of the organization. It will be seen as a national embarrassment for the higher-ups and will generate a fair amount of national press coverage. It's a strong enough statement to put next year's ticket sales in jeopardy (both in Buffalo and Toronto), and may evoke outside pressure from other team owners unwilling to see a loss in mutual profit. Ownership's failure to respond will be seen as a slap in the face to the fans. They will HAVE TO take action. This team doesn't exist without us fans. We, collectively, have tremendous power in this situation. What better way to exercise it than by sending a statement that we refuse to tolerate this status quo anymore? I'm for the walkout.

It's official. There are no longer any good arguments for retaining Dick Jauron. At the end of the first half today, Miami had a first and goal with about two minutes to play. There are only three outcomes: Miami scores a TD, Miami scores a FG, Miami turns the ball over. In ANY CASE, they can, with all probability, only run three or four plays. Can anyone explain how we can retain a coach who didn't have the common sense to call all of his timeouts. We would have gotten the ball back with over a minute and a half and would not have had to forfeit the remainder of the half. Other thoughts: - JP Losman was not prepared to play this game. His throws were off target, he didn't communicate well with his wide receivers, he lacked all pocket presence, etc. The worst infraction is that he did not know, after all these years in Jauron's system, how to best utilize his offensive weapons. Wide receivers are getting open. - You spike down the ball to the 9 when you could have caught it on the 1? Seriously? - When Peters was moved out of his position late in the game, notice how the left side of the line collapsed forthwith? - First and goal on the 3 and you order Losman to throw to a smothered wide receiver? - Thanks Lindell for actually showing up to work today. - We really need to start spending more money on quality college scouting. - Defense played well today (again) and I though Scott made some nice plays. Poz really needs to start becoming more of a factor. McGee redeemed himself. Dick Jauron has proven himself to be a poor game manager, someone who can't build a team to best utilize his weapons, and from my perspective, someone whose team is losing faith in him. This is a total disaster. Jauron is not redeemable. His coaching is causing me to hate football.

I think this hits the nail on the head. Trent has ADMITTED that he wasn't prepared for the defense and THAT IS THE COACH'S FAULT. I also study a bit of statistics, so here's another slant. Jauron apologists will say that there are lots of random factors at play (e.g. his team's turnovers, injuries, weaknesses at key positions, etc.). This is true. But if you sample his win-loss record over a long enough period of time and under enough different situations, those random factors will average themselves out, and you'll be left with Dick Jauron's average performance. The numbers don't lie. He doesn't bring his teams any significant advantage. When an owner is unwilling to invest money in his coaches and staff, we see what the results are. There's no excuse for this. Small market teams like Pittsburgh and Green Bay have had considerably more success than we have. If money is an issue, why doesn't Ralph Wilson get off his high horse, sell the naming rights to RALPH WILSON STADIUM, for example, and use the money to hire a better coach? I'm serious. Why doesn't he do that? It's probably because he truly believes Jauron is the answer and that's major reason for concern.

After making the original posting, I've had some long conversations with a lot of people and have drawn the conclusion that my initial argument was a bit hasty. While it is true that I am more connected to the Bills than Buffalo, I wonder how my fandom would change with a move to Toronto. The poster who argued that the Bills crowd at Fletcher's would dwindle down is probably correct. If that happens, then I don't even have a place to watch the games anymore, and that would be a disaster. I want to quote one of my friends who had some good things to say on this issue: "I totally disagree, Buffalo's problems are not as a result of the small market in which they play. It is the result of terrible mismanagement that will not be cured by any move to Toronto. It's ludicrous to claim that Buffalo simply cannot generate the revenue necessary to hire competent staff, especially when Buffalo's owner purchases, with untold millions each year, a luxury in which only a handful of owners indulge: a stadium named after himself. If the Bill struggles are a matter of finances and if the Bills ownership is seriously committed to staying and competing in Buffalo (and not, say, extorting public subsidies from Toronto or Buffalo) why don't they sell the naming rights for their stadium so they can hire a few more scouts? Now, that's the extra revenue stream I thought of on my way home from work, and without any knowledge of the marketing opportunities open to the Bills. A competent ownership group would be able to make a profit out of any NFL team. The Bills are one of 32 teams in the most successful professional sports league in the country, and even teams from smaller market towns like Pittsburgh and Green Bay have been able to field consistently successful teams with similar financial constraints. Moreover, the team gets an enormous pile of money in shared revenue from the TV contract and tickets no matter how incompetently they manage the team's finances. The profit margins may be a bit less in Buffalo, but it should be enough for a civic minded owner to sustain an NFL Franchise. After all, what is the point of having shared revenue and a salary cap if teams from still-major cities with committed fan bases like Buffalo have to move? I thought the idea was that the league would sacrifice the rather efficient allocation of assigning the largest payrolls to the teams with the most committed and most numerous fan bases in exchange for the benefits of giving every NFL city a relatively equal shot at the title. I don't believe that Buffalo has been deserted in such large numbers over the past 7 years such that it has less potential as a market than, say, Green Bay, if the Bills were actually managed properly. But more importantly, what is the point of being a Buffalo Bills fan if they aren't the Buffalo Bills anymore? What is the essential thing that draws you to them if not the city, your fellow fans, and the uniform, all of which would be changed if the franchise moved to Buffalo? I just can't see how it would be any source of satisfaction to any Bills fan if, in 2017, the Toronto Argonauts won the Super Bowl. For one, it would not be the Buffalo Bills. For another, the people who you celebrated with would not be the Buffalo expats that suffered in Fletcher's all these years, but rather...like....Joanna Nairn [ed: a Toronto acquaintance] and others in the coming Toronto fair weather crowd, who will be able to enjoy the Super Bowl, not because they were loyal and supportive of the team over 40 years, but because they had more money than the blue collar town of Buffalo. And you would be looked at by former Bills fans with the same scorn as if you had jumped ship to root for the Colts." I also wanted to address the other issue of why I'm a Bills fan in the first place. I was born and raised in New Jersey before moving to Boston for five years and now live in Baltimore. Our local teams were either the Giants, Jets, or Eagles. When I was a kid, my dad had arranged a collection of those tiny 25 cent football helmets that you get out of the machines in our basement. When I was 7, I didn't really know what the teams stood for, but I could definitely recognize their logos. As I grew up, I began to pay more attention to sports, watching highlights of games and hearing commentary and such. I would alternate between listening to coverage and checking out those toy helmets. After a while (and I don't know why this happened), my brain just started tuning out other teams and honed in on the Bills. I liken it to falling in love. Sometimes you don't choose your passions. They choose you. So from a very young age, something about the Buffalo Bills resonated with me, and as I've continued to follow them over the years, I've found my love for them has only grown (often increasingly painful...hah). In another cruel twist of fate, my favorite basketball team was the Seattle Supersonics, who are now, of course, the Oklahoma City Thunder. I consider myself a Thunder fan despite their horrible record and a complete inability to ever see them play. Despite that, my connection to them pales in comparison to my desire to see the Bills succeed. I just think it's an interesting and improbable coincidence.

My “outsider” status is that obvious, huh? Well, you are right. I have been a Bills fan for as long as I’ve known what a touchdown was, but I now live in Baltimore and with the exception of the great Bills Backers down at Fletcher’s every Sunday, we remote few live in greater isolation than the current Buffalo denizens. From my perspective, there is a much smaller football community for your team when you’re out of state. The greatest hope I have to cling to is that the Bills will once again rise to prominence and make all of us very happy. But there is a difference between us. For me, I will support the Bills regardless of where I am and regardless of where they are. They are my team and there’s nothing that I can forsee ever changing that. My ultimate frustration is watching them build our hopes up year and year only to dash them in the final weeks of each season. While I do still believe that moving the team to Toronto would increase the chances of their becoming a more successful organization, I completely empathize with local fans. But to me, realize that driving two hours to see my team play would be a welcome blessing, not a reason to give up on the NFL entirely. Perhaps the more reasonable proposal would be for the NFL to begin to include coaches and staff under the salary cap. They are just as important as the players when it comes to winning games, so why has the league, which professes to care about parity, not yet made this change? This would address the competitive disadvantage issue while still allowing the team to remain in Buffalo.

Despite the NFL’s best attempts at creating parity throughout the league, it remains mostly impotent in the arena of overall team revenue. Every team in the NFL is subject to the same salary cap for players, but profits from the sales of luxury boxes, tickets, and merchandising go by and large to teams in the biggest markets. And I haven’t even mentioned revenue from playoff appearances. Just look at the disparity in money generated in luxury box seats alone between the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s biggest problem over the last decade has been a complete inability to “right the ship”. In my estimation, the biggest factors that have played into this are the personnel decisions made by the front office and the coaching regimes. With competition in the NFL at a truly intense level, it is obvious that if a team cannot secure a competitive advantage in these two categories then it will be chronically disadvantaged. I fear that the Bills have fallen into a state of perpetual mediocrity. I don’t believe this is due to a lack of heart on anyone’s part. It’s a simple matter of lacking the tools to hire the best staff and coaches available in the NFL. Unless Ralph Wilson decides to open up the purse strings or western New York’s economy is suddenly revitalized, I don’t see these endemic problems (the type of problems that keep teams out of the playoffs for an embarrassing stretch of time) being overcome any time soon. For that reason, I am in favor of the Bills moving to Toronto. Even when the Bills are playing well, Ralph Wilson Stadium does not always sell out, depriving the team of revenue. The problem has become so acute that the NFL has actively tried to avoid scheduling home games in the month of December in Buffalo. While the Roger’s Center is slightly smaller than The Ralph, this would be more than compensated by the higher ticket prices the organization has proven capable of charging. All luxury seats for the Bills-Dolphins match-up have been sold. Being the only Canadian NFL team is likely to draw in more Canadian spectators, increasing the fan base and driving up merchandise sales. Being part of a larger market would also lead to greater national exposure, something a team that has been playing in the dark for so long sorely needs. While I understand that this suggestion is likely to attract hatred amongst the Bills faithful, I have to beg the question: If you knew that moving the team two hours up the road would significantly increase its chances of returning to the Super Bowl, would the trade-off be worth it? Wouldn’t anything be better than our current status quo? Football in Buffalo is a full day event anyway, and one could imagine the 100 minute drive becoming a new ritual, not unlike the one fans in New York City already participate in to get to The Meadowlands. Furthermore, there is no reason that a Bills team based out of Toronto shouldn’t play at least a game a year in Ralph Wilson stadium, giving the team a dynamic that no other in the league could match. Make no mistake. The Bills will always be a part of western New York, and regardless of where the team resides, an eventual Super Bowl victory parade will march through the streets of Buffalo. But just as we send our sons and daughters to college and our brave men and women of the armed forces abroad, sometimes we realize that we need to send those that we love away to ensure that true greatness can emerge.