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Over 29 years of fanhood

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    Is Josh Allen really as INT prone as being made out to be? Spoiler Alert - NO

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

    Lazy analysts and media pundits look at something like a "total" and do not consider the context of that total like volume of passes.  The more passes you throw then statistically the more INT's you will throw, that is just mathematical probability.  And these comparisons to Brett Farve are just lazy and inaccurate, you will see the evidence below.  

     

    If a player A throws 3000 passes and player B 1500 passes, then the statistical probability is that player A will likely have more INT's, but it doesn't also mean he is more likely to throw an INT on a given play.  

     

    It is true that Allen has the "most since" and you can pick any year since being in the league and that statement is true.  Most in 2023, most since 2022, most since 2021, etc etc.  But does that really mean he is the worst at throwing interceptions?  No it doesn't directly indicate that, to know that, you need to know more context.

     

    There is only one true metric to understand a QB's frequency that he will throw an interception, and it is NOT totals, it is INT % rate...How often he throws an INT for every pass attempt.  So how does Josh stack up against other great QB's of recent year and all time?

     

    Josh's careen INT % rate is 2.4% and here is how that stacks up against QB's that are amongst the most prolific or best of all time:  

     

    Aaron Rodgers 1.4%

    Patrick Mahomes = 1.7%

    Tom Brady = 1.8%

    Drew Brees = 2.3%

    Josh Allen = 2.4%

    Matt Stafford = 2.4%

    Ben Roethlisberger = 2.5%

    Joe Montana = 2.6%

    Steve Young = 2.6%

    Phillip Rivers = 2.6%

    Peyton Manning = 2.7%

    Cam Newton = 2.7%

    Dan Marino = 3.0%

    Troy Aikman = 3.0%

    John Elway = 3.1%

    Kurt Warner = 3.1%

    Randall Cunningham = 3.1%

    Brett Favre = 3.3%

    Warren Moon = 3.4%

    Jim Kelly = 3.7%

     

    Allen as you can see stacks up better than most and in the top 5 of this list all time great QB's.  And we can see why Farve comparison is BS and lazy as Brett was MUCH more wreckless with the football.  

     

    Josh Allen also has a career TD to INT ratio of 2.9 to 1 which is insanely and historically great.  For comparison sakes, lets look where he ranks among some of those all time greats and his common comparison, Brett Farve.

     

    Tom Brady:  3.2 to 1

    Josh Allen:  2.9 to 1

    Drew Brees:  2.4 to 1

    Peyton Manning:  2.2 to 1

    Brett Farve:  1.55 to 1

     

    It is absolutely lazy and atrocious to compare him to Farve, Allens TD to INT ratio is practically DOUBLE Farves.  In todays NFL, he is 3rd behind Rodgers and Mahomes for those with at least 2 seasons played.  

     

    NOW...doesn't mean Josh can't improve on the INT's, doesn't mean he has not made some poor decisions or forced too much.  What it does mean is that Allen has been the Bills offense and he has had to carry this team more than he should and with that comes volume and with volume comes increased totals.  But give me a QB who scores 3 TD's for every INT thrown 10 times out of 10 because there are NOT many better than that in NFL history.

     

    So make your own opinion...would you take the most TD's of all time with an INT % rate of just 2.4% which is better than most the all time great QB's?  For those of you who have been talking about moving on from Josh...good luck with replacing that, as that is historically good and not likely to be upgraded upon in our lifetime in Buffalo. 

     


     

    the full list without selective editing. 

     

    1 Aaron Rodgers 1.4% 

    2 Jacoby Brissett 1.5%

    3 Tyrod Taylor 1.6%

    4

    Patrick Mahomes 1.7% 

    Justin Herbert 1.7%

    6

    Tom Brady 1.8%

    Colin Kaepernick 1.8%

    Russell Wilson 1.8% 

    9 Dak Prescott 1.9% 

    10

    Derek Carr2.0% 

    Joe Burrow2.0% 

    Jared Goff2.0% 

    Carson Wentz2.0% 

    14

    Sam Bradford2.1% 

    Trevor Lawrence2.1% 

    Kyler Murray2.1% 

    Alex Smith2.1% 

    Daniel Jones2.1% 

    Neil O'Donnell2.1% 

    Kirk Cousins2.1% 

    21

    Deshaun Watson2.2% 

    Lamar Jackson2.2% 

    Matt Ryan2.2% 

    Donovan McNabb2.2% 

    Case Keenum2.2% 

    26

    Nick Foles2.3% 

    Jeff Garcia2.3%

    Teddy Bridgewater2.3%2014-20236TM

    Drew Brees2.3%2001-20202TM

    Mark Brunell2.3%1994-20115TM

    RankPlayerInt%YearsTm

    Joe Flacco2.3%2008-20223TM

    32

    David Garrard 2.4% 

    Brian Hoyer 2.4% 

    Jason Campbell 2.4%

    Matthew Stafford 2.4%

    Ryan Tannehill 2.4%

    Josh Allen 2.4%

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    2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    current odds for NFL MVP
     

    2023 NFL MVP ODDS*

    Jalen Hurts, Eagles: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
    Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
    Dak Prescott, Cowboys: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
    Lamar Jackson, Ravens: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
    Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
    Brock Purdy, 49ers: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)

    Rich Eisen Loves him some Josh Allen!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

     

    No QB is perfect.  Not even Mahomes.  Especially against one of the best teams in the league.  I do expect more consistency week to week, but this was not the game to rag on him.  You don't know what you watched.  Josh Allen was the best player on the field in this game.

    Sure… Enjoy the moral victory

    The Bills control their own destiny

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bob Jones said:

    They don’t control their own destiny though. Pretty sure that they need help from other teams. IOW, they need the cards to fall "just right" for them to get in, even at 11-6. Correct me if I'm wrong....


    After looking at remaining schedules 11 wins is a WC, maybe 10 with a tie breaker. There are some late season surprises like AZ and play between the other contenders. 

     

    if they win out they get in. 

    Rich Eisen Loves him some Josh Allen!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

     

    Dude doesn't know what he watched.  Thinks a QB needs to be absolute perfect.


    Yeah- i expect the most highly compensated player on the field to deliver perfection- Especially when you have the chance to win the game instead of putting it on the defense with a back 7 of jags and geriatrics. 
     

    I’ve spent decades hearing all they need is the QB and then it will all work out. They finally got the guy with all world potential that has these random mental misfires that undermine all the good he does. It’s extremely annoying. 
     

    completing half your passes and a bad pick inside your own 30, going 2 for 7 in OT and not winning isn’t nearly perfect no matter how well he played running back or made some great passes in between incompletions and drops. 
     

    this is it. Either he brings more perfect play here on out or this season is done. it’s all on him. 
     

     

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    Rich Eisen Loves him some Josh Allen!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Mango said:


    I don’t know man, I’m pretty critical of Josh. I have some thoughts about him this game for sure, but he wasn’t in my top 5, maybe top 10 criticisms against the Eagles.

     

    Josh played well. There has to be some level-headed-ness around criticizing players.


     

    not bashing-  

     

    he played well, but the Superman thing is overdone imo.

     

    Also that pick inside the Bills 30 was brutal. Probably the momentum shift that Philly needed. 
     

    I know a lot of folks think criticizing isn’t acceptable but he’s the only $250 million dollar player on the field. He’s supposed to be the best. 

    • Sad 1

    Constipation. This one got stuck in my digestive tract.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BobBelcher said:

    Usually, I am pretty good about having a “24 hour process” coming off bad Bills losses in which, by Tuesday morning, the game will still come to mind on and off, but I’ll be over it for the most part.

     

    This time… I can’t get it out of my system; it’s stuck.  Stuck on flashing back to the absolutely ridiculous 59 yard field goal and missed connection to Gabe Davis in OT, specifically. Along with being SO SICK AND TIRED of being involved in “instant classic” games year after year, but being on the losing end of them EVERY TIME!!!  

     

    I absolutely hate this part about being a sports fan. 
     

    And I am just wondering how many of you are in the same boat?  Because we have gone through numerous BAD losses this season, but something about this one, despite being an NFC opponent, has got me so backed up with sh*t thoughts and I am unable to pass this brain stool. 


    It all feels so familiar…. After two decades of digging through the instant recall to unearth  moral victories, we had a couple years reprieve where the team outperformed expectations and appeared to have a bright future.  Now it’s hard to escape the feeling that the franchise has peaked, and now half the fans are calling for a partial or complete housecleaning either forgetting or never experiencing how disruptive that type of overhaul is and that this is the same owner that saw Rex Ryan as a good hire. 
     

    and we’ve got the reality that the team has a lot of both expensive and old, injured, slowing or intermittently performing talent an underwhelming record and a coaching staff that doesn’t seem to have answers.

     

    Of all of the Bills’ issues the biggest is becoming clear - Discipline

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

    Everywhere he went he turned a disorganized team/franchise around. I posted before that this team has no discipline, I think that within the first 5 penalties Dawkins had two of them. It’s nauseating that every time this offense gets going, especially early in the game, they refuse to let success roll their way. I can’t remember ever seeing anything like it consistently. Parcells, amongst many other attributes, believed in being a disciplinarian. If a RB fumbled he went to the bench, if a WR dropped passes he didn’t get to see the field, etc etc. on top of all that McDermott has brought this team/franchise as far as he’s capable of. The rest of anything I can say would only be redundant of what many here have already posted or are aware of. It’s a shame that the Bills had the Eagles beat in their own home despite of the ridiculous officiating just to let it all just disappear into another embarrassing loss. When is enough enough??! Smh.


    wasn’t everyone around here complaining when clappy pulled Cook for a few series after a fumble? 
     

    Wonder how he’d deal with the offensive turnovers… 

    Rich Eisen Loves him some Josh Allen!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

     

    So do you also think he's having the best season of his career because of his completion percentage? I really have no idea what to tell you if you do. 

     

    Josh was elite yesterday if you actually watched the game. 


    I watched… as per usual there was some good, some great, some incredible, and also some bad and some head scratching WTF moments.  

    same old story 

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    Per Benjamin Allbright, McDermott's "seat is warm"

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

    BS, it’s a zone scheme, McClappy doesn’t have some magical voodoo about him.

    What he does do is run a system then customized personnel to it over years. 
     

    Bernard isn’t a starting MLB in a lot of NFl defenses and neither are Benford or Dane. 
     

    recall Poyer and Hyde were not starters early in their career. 
     

    also all the cap tied up in the front 4 positions isn’t necessarily compatible with numerous schemes either. 

    you don’t just switch schemes with the same dudes and everything is perfect…. That’s not how this all works. 

    Per Benjamin Allbright, McDermott's "seat is warm"

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    21 hours ago, Virgil said:

    At this point, with McD being a defensive minded coach and calling the plays, we have lost all our games by one score.  
     

    If he can’t win with his defense and the offense did their part, then he deserves to be fired.  
     

    What argument is there to keep him?


    The argument to keep him is

    - second most wins and playoff wins in bill’s history 

    - highest winning percentage in franchise history

    - 5th highest winning percentage among active nfl coaches 

     

    If the Bills fire him he will immediately land another job and there is a possibility he is replaced with someone worse. Based on history it’s far more likely they downgrade.  But if that’s what the people want let’s go… change is change anyway. 

    What more can Allen do?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    16 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

    Josh is a legend and is on track to be a hall of famer.


    He got robbed of a SB in 2021 and continues to get held back by moronic coaching 

    Right… robbed of a superbowl.

     

    recap of the 2021 theft….

     

    lost to the team that lost to the team that lost to the superbowl champ. 
     

    Pretty insidious plot to steal the win 

    The good news - Josh Allen is back

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Einstein said:

    Time for a positive thread
     

    That was the closest to 2021 playoffs i’ve seen Josh Allen since Daboll left.

     

    Great decision making (outside of one throw), used his legs a ton, was throwing on the run with accuracy… he just looked fantastic.

     

    He was Josh Allening more than i’ve seen him Josh Allen all season. Or last season.

     

    Gives me hope for the future.


    And against 2 straight great defenses.

    The outcome looks familiar anyway 

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