[THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Receivers are a Dime a Dozen]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Bills fans have spent the first five months of 2024 talking about receivers: Whom the Bills have and whom they should get.  The longer I’ve listened to that discussion, the more I’ve come to the conclusion that fans haven’t really internalized what’s happening in pro football.

 

In short, I think that receivers are following in the footsteps of their cousins, the running backs.  Fans, and the New York Giants, were late to realize that in terms of team performance, there isn’t much difference between having a great running back and having a really good one.  And you almost always can find a really good one.  There’s always a Singletary, a Cook, a Pacheco, or someone else.  In earlier eras, if you had a Jim Brown or an Earl Campbell or a Barry Sanders, you were a contender.   Not now.  Now, you can have a Derrick Henry and, well, you have some great highlights, but highlights don’t get it done any more. 

 

Why did that happen to running backs?  Two reasons:  First, young players keep closing the gap between what the great players can do and what the next level of really good players can do.  They learn the moves of the great players, and they condition themselves to be nearly as strong and as powerful.  Second, the defenses have matured – the players are bigger, stronger, faster, so that a guy with Jim-Brown talent now finds a defense full of big, strong, fast defenders, and the coaches have schemed their defenses in ways that allow their big, strong, fast defenders to close gaps and gang tackle in ways that just weren’t done in earlier generations.  Maybe some 250-pound guy who runs like LaDainian Tomlinson will come along, but that’s unlikely.

 

(As an aside, the same thing is happening in the NBA.   In less than ten years, the league has filled up with guys who shoot threes like Steph Curry, guys who are bigger, stronger, and quicker than Steph.  And the defenses have gotten smarter.  The Warriors of five years ago would be good today, but not dominant in the way they were.

 

(And, by the way, there’s a whole generation of pro golfers who have caught up to the greatness of the early Tiger Woods.  They don’t stand out like Tiger because, well, there are a lot of them.)

 

And now we see it happening to receivers.  Again, the difference between truly great and very good has gotten smaller, the number of very good receivers has increased.  It’s happened for the same reasons that it happened to running backs.  Receivers have gotten about as big and fast as they are going to get.  The difference in speed between a 4.3 guy and a 4.4 or even 4.5 guy just isn’t very important – 4.5 is plenty fast enough.  Kids in high school practice catching balls one-handed, practice tucking the ball away after the catch, etc.   By the time receivers have gotten out of college, a lot of them have speed, route-running technique, and catching skills that rival what some of the best NFL players had ten years ago.  In other words, it’s become almost impossible to get better physically in a way that makes any one receiver a dominant player. 

 

In addition to the younger receivers closing the talent gap, the defenders and the defenses they run have improved, too, for the express purpose of stopping the physically dominant receivers.  If you want to win in the NFL, you simply cannot let one player get 150+ yards against you, rushing or receiving, so you create defenses to stop them.  You shadow running backs, you double cover receivers, and then you develop nuanced variations off your defenses to slow down the opponent’s star player.  Quickly, other teams adopt your ideas.   The result is that even the very best running backs and receivers are not stringing 150-yard games, back to back to back, all season long.  Yes, every once in a while a Tyreek Hill comes along, a physical freak, and he does string great games for a while, but it’s just a matter of time before teams adjust. 

 

What about all the great young receivers out there?   Well, I think there’s an important distinction to be made between great receivers and great production.  A guy like Julian Edelman was not a great receiver, in the classic Hall of Fame sense.  He had great production because of the circumstances he was in, and because he was the right guy to take advantage of those circumstanes.  Cooper Kupp is another.  Amon-Ra St. Brown is another.  These guys are all over the league, guys with excellent speed, very good ball skills, and brains.  They have great production, but it isn’t so much that they create the production – they just fit the scheme and get production because they have the skill to take advantage of the opportunities that their offenses create. 

 

I’m not saying those guys aren’t good football players.   What I’m saying is that they are the Pachecos and Cooks and Singletarys of the receiving world.  What I’m saying is that teams are discovering that the physical difference between OBJ and St. Brown does not translate into an important difference in production on the field, just like the difference between Saquon Barkley and Pacheco. 

 

What about the true studs, the OBJs and the DHops of the world?  The guys who actually create their production?  Well, both of those guys came to greatness on their original teams, were true sensations and great weapons, and then were somewhat surprisingly dealt to other teams, where they never recovered their initial luster.  Now they’ve been reduced to hired guns that teams hope can somehow reclaim their greatness or at least be reliable 4th receivers.

 

The bottom line is, I think, that the game has moved on from the days when the ideal was to have a true stud skill player on offense (other than your QB).  If you had a true stud, you gave him the ball every time you could.  In fact, teams have discovered that having a guy who is so good that he demands the ball is a negative, not a positive.  When you have a Derrick Henry or an OBJ, they’re only useful if you give them the ball a lot, and that limits your offense.  Having a guy like Stefon Diggs, who is prone to sulking if he doesn’t get a catch in your first series, is a liability. 

 

The Bills certainly seem to have adopted this thinking. 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

I have thought much the same but I do not think it's a trend that puts WRs in the same tier as RBs.  This may be a trend for teams with a QB at 20 to 25% of their cap and it's likely more of a necessity.  Top WR prospects are still drafted very highly and the top guys are getting 10 to 12% of the cap on their second contracts.  That is very much not like RBs.  So this may become the operational thinking for the better teams with elite QBs on a 2nd contract but it certainly is not a league wide one that applies to all teams in all situations as seems to be the case for RBs.

[Where to sit at highmark?]

The entire lower bowl stands for the entire game.  My knees won't allow for that so my seats in 227/228 are much appreciated.    The latter section is only 5 seats wide which is also much appreciated.  Pretty decent views of both jumbotrons, in the shade on the hottest of days and mostly well behaved fans.

[Congratulations Joe Andreesen!!!]

18 minutes ago, Whkfc said:

Mine graduated in 2019

this all I could find so I think the answer is no.

 

[Congratulations Joe Andreesen!!!]

22 hours ago, Whkfc said:

I wonder if he wrestled my son they are about the same age 25 my kid wrestled for Niagara Wheatfield at 220. 

Looks like Joe graduated in 2018 and he wrestled 220 then.  He was at 195 for most of the 2016-2017 season.  It is easy enough to verify using the archived results at Armdrag and the links there to Matburn and Trackwrestling.

[*2024 UB Football Thread*]

On 10/3/2022 at 3:23 PM, JESSEFEFFER said:

I went to this one for the first time in many years.  Cole was drilling the out the breaking routes for completions on a windy day but not so much to the other areas of the field.  Radio announcer in postgame said the fumble was a bad ruling since it was an obvious forward pitch attempt and to me it seemed he was crushed during a deep ball atempt that made it come up short and get picked.  Receivers Marshall and Williams look like they will tear MAC secondaries apart.   Dolac was all over the place and stood out to me more than Patterson.   You do not get very many quality replays on the scoreboard so it's likely that viewers of the game on ESPN+ or U got much better views to form opinions.

Just to mention that Shaun Dolac is coming back to UB from Utah State.  He made first team All-Mac in 2022.

[Congratulations Joe Andreesen!!!]

Outstanding HS wrestler at Lancaster.  I was also very impressed by West Seneca East's Shaun Dolac's 2022 All MAC 1st team,  UB season.  He entered the transfer portal and signed with Utah State early in January.   I went to see his Utah State profile and then find that he went back into the portal a week or so ago and is returning to UB for his last year.  Crazy times in college football.

[2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.]

13 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

It looks like the team trading up pays more points than they get about 2/3 of the time. This makes sense since a team will only trade up if there is a particular player that they want and so has more incentive to make the trade than the team trading down.  Based on that it is slightly bad but certainly not one of the worse 8n 20 years as claimed by Walder.

 

This may be true but we all suspect Beane was really, really upset that he didn't get a 3rd round comp pick so let's consider the value in making it right when done wrong.

[2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.]

5 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

It’s pretty amazing how NFL teams are keep so much information under wraps.  Their entire production team has access to the team’s board as well as knowledge of their the draft plans which didn’t happen

Think of all the combine interviews and 30 visits for players they did not draft.  For every Beane comment about liking Coleman's 40 time because it meant they would have a shot at getting him at their draft spot, there are 100s more about other combine players.

[2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.]

6 minutes ago, mushypeaches said:

Sugar is one of the basic enjoyments of life that go against "the process"

These videos do reveal some of "the process," sugary baked goods included.  We only get to see the parts that they want us to see or that they can let us see (we probably can't see comments about  players taken by other teams, for instance) but even the UDFA signings process have a process.  Beane cares about every player he puts on the roster.  I think it really bothers him when he loses out on his coveted players.  It explains the trade ups he's made over the years more than anything else, imo.  Small investments to make to ensure the player you wanted didn't go to another team and you have lingering feelings of regret.

[2024 Draft Embedded--Has Dropped.]

 I love these highly edited, extended PR videos and look forward to them after every draft.  Very well done and we get to see some of the decision making process and the draft room interactions.  So, we do learn something from them.  Sad Kim still can't be there to offer her home baked cookies to the room and have McD make a face when he was offered.  

 

Link:  Inside the Bills' 2024 Draft

 

[Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State]

1 hour ago, UmbrellaMan said:

“Keon Coleman (WR – Florida State)

Most similar players: Collin Johnson (0.900), Isaiah Hodgins (0.895), Auden Tate (0.883)

In college, Keon Coleman was a Sportscenter Top 10 play waiting to happen. The issue, as you may notice in those clips, is Coleman’s lack of ability to create separation. According to PFF, Coleman’s separation against single coverage last year ranked 449th out of 450 qualifying players — not great, Bob. Furthermore, when looking at Coleman’s charted stats he falls short in a lot of areas (photo via Reception Perception):

 

After transferring from Michigan State to Florida State for his final season, Coleman led the Seminoles in receiving yards while his targets per route run rose slightly from 22.9% to 24.9%. Also, despite running a 4.61-second 40-yard dash at the combine, Coleman reached a top speed of 20.36 miles per hour during the gauntlet drill, the fastest speed by any receiver over the last two seasons. Whether or not I like Coleman’s profile is a complex battle between my head (his production and efficiency are poor) and my heart (the dude can ball), so I think landing spot and development will matter slightly more than some of the other receivers.”

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2024/04/2024-nfl-draft-player-comps-keon-coleman-xavier-legette-roman-wilson-ricky-pearsall/amp/

 

The pick was a total disappointment with McConkey right there. Non-WRs like Dejean or Newton would have been better selections than taking a player with so much bust risk. I’m still vexed at how the Bills scouting department thought THIS was their guy. 
 

The primary skill a NFL WR needs is the ability to get open (earn targets). Catching the ball is secondary. Catching the ball is akin to shooting free throws in basketball. There are many gym rats at the ymca who can do it better than NBA players. The skill is earning the free throws.

 

Let's hope that Keon Coleman is the 2018 Josh Allen of the 2024 WR prospects.   I think I phrased that correctly.  The conversation feels like deja vu all over again-ish as it's the rematch of the analytics crowd vs. the scouting community.  This leads the discussion to whether he is self aware, can take coaching and is willing to do whatever it takes to shape his skillset to be successful against the best of the best and allow his freakishly rare athletic abilities dominate opponents.

[Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State]

In my part of the world the story is told that Shane Conlan got the last scholarship offered in that particular class after PSU recruiters watched him play a HS basketball game.  Seeing this, Keon shows elite body control as he drives the lane, does the 360 dunks, etc.  That seems like a good skill that translates for a bigger WR to separate and make himself available for the ball.  I can't see how he would be limited.  Teams might have a problem matching up the right kind of defender with him.

[Romo goes banco]

43 minutes ago, Augie said:

What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow? 

Hey Augie,  I do not know your profile but my sense is that as a 60ish, white, American man there are certain cultural references that I (we) should make known to our younger brethren and we need to slip these in to threads wherever they fit.   So well played.

[Romo goes banco]

12 minutes ago, Augie said:

What is the airspeed velocity of an unladen swallow? 

[K J Hamler the new speed threat?]

Isabella and Hamler are similar in that they were smallish, fast, early day 2 draft prospects that failed on their original teams which have proven to have been rather poor situations.  There's a good chance that the Bills liked them in their draft years and are thus willing to give them a chance within their organizational walls and see what they might unlock.  There is such a thing as bad luck with injuries and poor environments where one's career begins.  Josh repeats his dad's "bloom where you are planted" mantra but there are some franchises that are asphalt parking lots surrounded by overfilled dumpsters. Little chance to make roots and bloom there. 

 

They are also decent candidates for one or two of the six veteran slots on the practice squad.  Remember the Bills 2022 season when they were running thin in their WR group heading into the playoffs and brought Beasley and Brown back late in the season?  I think Beane might be inclined to do more to prevent that from happening again.

[Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State]

1 hour ago, stevewin said:

Curious to hear from locals what fans on Buffalo talk radio are saying about this pick - if there is a group with such strong negative feelings as on here.  My brother went to FSU and watches all their games and he was really surprised when I mentioned the vocal negative contingent on here.  As someone who saw all his games at FSU (some live) he said Coleman's the best FSU receiver he's ever seen in 30+ years watching the team, and believes he will "be a force"

This is a knee-jerk reaction to the "traits" of a draft prospect reminding them of a past player that was a "failure."  Big bodied, "slow" poor separator from FSU = Kelvin Benjamin.  Toolsy but inaccurate QB that is not pro ready and needs patience and growth = EJ Manuel.  See how that works?  Ben Solak of the Ringer about to come on WGR and tell them why Coleman is a good fit and how the reading of his analytical profile lacks context.

 

[Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State]

Tee's RAS:

 

 

[Rd 2, Pick 33: WR Keon Coleman, Florida State]

The idea of trading for an established WR who is due a second contract is appealing to some.  Tee Higgins has been a name that has circulated.  Coleman shares a very similar  body type and athletic profile with Tee.  I haven't seen any comps to him but I'll say it seeing some would be happy if we made a trade for him.  In many athletic respects, Keon has him beat.

 

 

[How do the Bills add 2 top 100 picks this draft in order to fill the team's needs?]

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

 

39 may be too far.  I'm thinking one more trade down to 35 or maybe 36.  Arizona has pick 90 and 104,  Washington has 78 and 100 as potential compensation. 

 

I could see something like pick 33 and 128 to Arizona for 35 and 104 (maybe 90 if the Bills toss in another 4th-6th this year or next).  

Plus, there's the added entertainment value of seeing heads explode with another trade down.  Say there are 5 teams in the bidding and they're chewing on it for another 8 hours, someone should offer something sweet.  I said Carolina because of the Dan Morgan thing and #33 was theirs to begin with, but I like your ideas just fine as well.

[How do the Bills add 2 top 100 picks this draft in order to fill the team's needs?]

I think there is a great chance that they trade out of #33.  The Bills have almost 9 more hours to field calls from teams that see a prospect there that they covet and there will be enough interest to create a sellers market.  That's enough interest and time for someone to make the Bills an offer that they can't refuse and the Bills get the 4th "Top 100" pick that we've been discussing.  Maybe with Carolina again, give them #33 and #204 for #39 and and #101.  A trade that's both "close enough" to the Top 100 goal and ironic.

[How do the Bills add 2 top 100 picks this draft in order to fill the team's needs?]

On 4/23/2024 at 12:24 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

That is one top 100 pick acquired and one to go,  There's plenty of 4th and 5th round capital to get the next one and have a total of 4 in the top 100.  Or maybe some team will overpay for #33 after examining their board overnight.  Just sayin'.

[Joe Marino's Bills specific draft board: Horizontal & Vertical]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

He lost me with Xavier Leggette as round 1 and the 4th receiver on the board over Brian Thomas Jr. I've watched a lot of these and nobody has ever been that high on Leggette. It reminds me of when Chris Trepasso had Mason Rudolph as his QB1 and said he would be the next Marino. I think these guys try to be controversial on purpose so if it pans out then they look smart 

He had D K Metcalf at the top of round 1 his draft year also.  That's him being true to his evaluation, imo.  Pick a combo block, hit a seam, break an arm tackle and go.  May be a great KO return guy in the new format.

 

 

[How do the Bills add 2 top 100 picks this draft in order to fill the team's needs?]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The more I read and the more mock drafts I simulate on the net, the more I've come to the conclusion that Beane needs to acquire two more top 100 picks in order to meet the team's needs for a starting WR, and good rotational players (and possible 2025 starters) at S, DL and Edge.  

 

When I look at rankings and the mock drafts there is a tier of WRs from 28-45 (Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and Pearsall), a tier of safeties from 65-80 (Bullard, Nubin, Kinchens, Bishops and Bullock), a tier of DL from 50-70 (Jenkins, Orhorhoro, Hall, Smith & Fiske) and a tier of edge players 65-90 (Isaac, Braswell, Booker, Trice & Elliss).  The Bills currently have picks 28 & 60 and then nothing until 128.  There are also some Edge players at approx 28 (Robinson & Kneeland), WRs at 60ish (Legette, Polk, Corley, Wilson).. I also like WR Devontez Walker as a possible 3rd rd steal.

 

There are 4 approaches to get the picks we need. 1) Trade down from 28.  This should garner us a top 100 pick for just moving down a few slots.  2) Trade down from 60.  To get a top 100 pick this way, we'll have to add one of our 4th rd picks.  A deal might look like 60 and 133 for 65 & 94.  3) The 3rd method would be to package our 4th rd picks and additional 5th or 6th rd picks to move back into the late 3rd rd.  Lastly, I can see Beane trading our 2nd or 3rd in 2025 plus a later pick in 2024 to get back into the 2nd or 3rd rd, especially with the Minn 2nd in hand.

 

Depending of how the draft falls on Thursday, I'd trade down from 28 to 31 for SF's 3rd rd pick (94).  The second move I'd make is trading our 3rd rd pick in 2025 and a 4th in 2024 (133) to Atl for pick 79.

 

When I mocked this, I walked away with McConkey at 31, Fiske at 60, Ellis at 79 (we like Utah players after all  ) and Bullock at 94.  I then added Green (CB FSU) at 128, McCaffrey (WR Rice) at 144 and my sleeper Guerendo (RB Louisville) at 160.

 

Thoughts on the strategy(s)?

The mock drafts I have liked the most involved a trade back and a WR double dip.  Four picks in the top 100 seems compatible with those ideas.  Greg Tompsett of Cover1 used the analogy of needing to hit a bullseye and it being better to have more premium darts rather than taking a step or two closer to the board but only having one.  The Bills had many darts in the 1985 draft and the 4th round, 2nd WR they drafted made the H-o-F.

 

 

 

 

 

I also can't see the Bills staying put at 28.  Every other team knows the Bills have that glaring need and those having the same need have every incentive to jump in front of the Bills and get any valued talent that might have fallen there. 

[J T O'Sullivan's The QB School]

If you have predraft media coverage fatigue and 3 months is enough time for your post playoff loss soul to recover, J T has dropped his review of Josh's playoff loss performance.  These are always informative and well done, imo.  

 

The QB School--JA17 and the playoff loss to the Chiefs

[WR Treylon Burks]

15 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

How often do total bust WRs turn it around? I'd rather draft someone from a D3 school in the 7th that we haven't seen be awful in the NFL yet.

I think WR production is more at the mercy of HC/OC/QB/OL circumstances than any position other than QB.  So, if you are the Bills and you can identify a WR who  you had a high grade on in their draft year but you are convinced came into the NFL into a poor situation or has had bad injury luck, you should be able to get him for less investment and on a cheaper deal and have a reason to believe that they have a shot to thrive with the Bills.  It's the nature vs. nurture argument.  Foster, Brown, Beasley, Diggs all had better years with the Bills and Josh than they had previously.   Burks may or may not be such a candidate but there must be others.