Stock Up and Stock Down

[Astrobot]

As Bills Correspondent to www.DraftTek.com I plan to do a Bills "Stock Up, Stock Down" once a month until the draft. For each position, I will indicate what the Bills might be thinking in terms of drafting/free agency priority. Stock Up means that the Bills need to think harder about drafting a player at that position, and Stocl Down means the position is less of a priority than last month.

 

Here's October's Stock Up, Stock Down:

 

 

FB: Stock Up. McIntyre is better than Barnes, but we need the fastest, biggest FB we can find to blast holes for our RB duo.

 

WR: Stock Down. Relatively speaking, this is currently less of a need as Parrish, Reed, Hardy and a new Evans contract seem to be making great connections with Edwards.

 

TE: Stock Up. This is clearly a need in a Turk Schoenert offense. A second TE is needed to block, catch, and open up spaces between the seams. Right now, we don't know if Derek Fine is the answer because of injuries. Schouman is too small, and we need a top-tier TE to force OC's to game plan for.

 

QB: Stock Up. Losman will be gone and while the Bills (and TSW'ers) like Hamdan, they will most likely draft one.

 

RB:Stock Down. Lynch and Jackson are evolving into a Top 4 one-two punch in the NFL. Xavier Omon looked good in preseason. 'Nuff said.

 

OC:Stock Up. Melvin Fowler's injury and our RB's difficulty running between the tackles underscore the need for a Center of the Alex Mack/Jonathan Luigs caliber.

 

OT:Stock Down. Kirk Chambers looked good in relief of Peters, and we drafted Demetrius Bell, who looks solid. Peters is playing into shape.

 

OG: Stock Up. Butler is good but hurt, Whittle is a solid backup, and Preston is the Bills' backup at two positions (OG and OC). We need another player for depth here.

 

 

 

 

DE: Stock Up. Schoebel has been dinged, and Kelsay-Denney is not striking fear into any OC's game planning. Moreover, this is a banner year for DE's in the draft.

 

DT:Stock Up. The Bills hit pay dirt with Stroud and Johnson, and have proved that good DT's force QB's to make rash decisions. Williams is an overachiever, and evidently McCargo is expendable, evidenced by this month's trade with the Colts that went south.

 

OLB:Stock Up. Crowell will be gone, DiGiorgio is now a question mark, and Bowen is untested. Kavicka Mitchell is a great addition, but will be on the wrong side of 30. Ellison is versatile but we need more speed on the outside.

 

ILB: Stock Up. OLB Ellison and an injured DiGiorgio have been suggested as backups to Poz. Both are big dropoffs. We need ILB more than a month ago.

 

CB:Stock Down. While raw, McKelvin looks like he can play, McGee will be back soon, and Greer has been awesome. Jauron and Fewell have shown that they can get Whitner to play CB as well. Youboty has begun to show promise, and Reggie Corner gives us great depth at a previous weakness.

 

S:Stock Up. Scott has been a very satisfying surprise in recent games. Whitner's a good leader and shows tremendous blitzing ability. Wilson is favored by the coaches. John Wendling is a good ST guy. We need one more safety with range, good instincts, and hitting ability.

[BuffaloBill]

Not sure I agree with CB as Greer is in a final year of contract and Yoboughty - while showing promise has also been injury prone (he has a dark cloud over his head). If Bills resign Greer and Youboty loses the dark cloud definately a stock down. Given all of the "ups" I see taking best center or d-line player on the board at the time of the Bill's pick. I would rank qb as lowest draft day need as there is always a lot of turnover across the league and we should be able to pick someone up.

[BillsfaninFl]

As Bills Correspondent to www.DraftTek.com I plan to do a Bills "Stock Up, Stock Down" once a month until the draft. For each position, I will indicate what the Bills might be thinking in terms of drafting/free agency priority. Stock Up means that the Bills need to think harder about drafting a player at that position, and Stocl Down means the position is less of a priority than last month.

 

Here's October's Stock Up, Stock Down:

 

 

FB: Stock Up. McIntyre is better than Barnes, but we need the fastest, biggest FB we can find to blast holes for our RB duo.

 

WR: Stock Down. Relatively speaking, this is currently less of a need as Parrish, Reed, Hardy and a new Evans contract seem to be making great connections with Edwards.

 

TE: Stock Up. This is clearly a need in a Turk Schoenert offense. A second TE is needed to block, catch, and open up spaces between the seams. Right now, we don't know if Derek Fine is the answer because of injuries. Schouman is too small, and we need a top-tier TE to force OC's to game plan for.

 

QB: Stock Up. Losman will be gone and while the Bills (and TSW'ers) like Hamdan, they will most likely draft one.

 

RB:Stock Down. Lynch and Jackson are evolving into a Top 4 one-two punch in the NFL. Xavier Omon looked good in preseason. 'Nuff said.

 

OC:Stock Up. Melvin Fowler's injury and our RB's difficulty running between the tackles underscore the need for a Center of the Alex Mack/Jonathan Luigs caliber.

 

OT:Stock Down. Kirk Chambers looked good in relief of Peters, and we drafted Demetrius Bell, who looks solid. Peters is playing into shape.

 

OG: Stock Up. Butler is good but hurt, Whittle is a solid backup, and Preston is the Bills' backup at two positions (OG and OC). We need another player for depth here.

 

 

 

 

DE: Stock Up. Schoebel has been dinged, and Kelsay-Denney is not striking fear into any OC's game planning. Moreover, this is a banner year for DE's in the draft.

 

DT:Stock Up. The Bills hit pay dirt with Stroud and Johnson, and have proved that good DT's force QB's to make rash decisions. Williams is an overachiever, and evidently McCargo is expendable, evidenced by this month's trade with the Colts that went south.

 

OLB:Stock Up. Crowell will be gone, DiGiorgio is now a question mark, and Bowen is untested. Kavicka Mitchell is a great addition, but will be on the wrong side of 30. Ellison is versatile but we need more speed on the outside.

 

ILB: Stock Up. OLB Ellison and an injured DiGiorgio have been suggested as backups to Poz. Both are big dropoffs. We need ILB more than a month ago.

 

CB:Stock Down. While raw, McKelvin looks like he can play, McGee will be back soon, and Greer has been awesome. Jauron and Fewell have shown that they can get Whitner to play CB as well. Youboty has begun to show promise, and Reggie Corner gives us great depth at a previous weakness.

 

S:Stock Up. Scott has been a very satisfying surprise in recent games. Whitner's a good leader and shows tremendous blitzing ability. Wilson is favored by the coaches. John Wendling is a good ST guy. We need one more safety with range, good instincts, and hitting ability.

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to give such thorough thought to the subject... and the courage to run the gauntlet with so many points to be responded to. I agree with a number of your points, but have different opinions about a few:

 

1. I believe the center position needs upgrading more than fullback. I keep looking at film of inside runs where the FB comes to the line with no hole to blast into, just the rear end of our bunched up guys.

 

2. Whether the Bills draft a quarterback or not, their priority in this position will be to sign a veteran QB who will be a valuable mentor and be comfortable serving as a back up. Unless Edwards' career goes south because of injury (or something else), the team has to assume he is their guy for the years ahead and plan accordingly.

 

3. I agree that we need help at defensive end. Schobel has already peaked and Kelsey and Denney are good but not great. IF (a big "if") Stroud stays healthy, he probably has a couple of good years left, allowing us to concentrate on DE first.

[ax4782]

I agree that Center needs to be the top priority. We need to sign a solid center and get rid of Fowler. He is serviceable, but just doesn't get the job done. We also do need improved depth on the OL at the G position. DE is also a position of need, though I would like to see what Chris Ellis can do before we start spending first rounders on DE. You forgot about Ko Simpson at the Safety position and he has played well back there, though far from perfect. He has been injured, which is why Scott was primarily in the lineup last week. QB is the last position we need to draft. We can sign an FA. Buffalo has needs, but most of them are no longer at skill positions. I think the Bills should draft as follows.

 

1. C

2. TE

3. DE

4. LB

5. OL

6. LB

7. DL

 

If Buffalo can add some picks to the lineup, we should concentrate on building up the LBs and the OL and DL with solid depth.

[The Dean]

I agree that Center needs to be the top priority. We need to sign a solid center and get rid of Fowler. He is serviceable, but just doesn't get the job done. We also do need improved depth on the OL at the G position. DE is also a position of need, though I would like to see what Chris Ellis can do before we start spending first rounders on DE. You forgot about Ko Simpson at the Safety position and he has played well back there, though far from perfect. He has been injured, which is why Scott was primarily in the lineup last week. QB is the last position we need to draft. We can sign an FA. Buffalo has needs, but most of them are no longer at skill positions. I think the Bills should draft as follows.

 

1. C

2. TE

3. DE

4. LB

5. OL

6. LB

7. DL

 

If Buffalo can add some picks to the lineup, we should concentrate on building up the LBs and the OL and DL with solid depth.

 

Are you suggesting they should draft the players in this order, even if the quality of what is available does not warrant it?

[Lofton80]

Defensive line will be first prority. Denny, ASchobel, Kelsay and Stroud are not young. Add some young talent to the DLine. If not go Oline.

[Astrobot]

I didn't have the positions in a particular order, and I realize I should have rank-ordered the "Stock Up" positions, especially.

My leaning this month (and a really early Bills mock draft reflecting those priorities) is as follows:

1--TE---I like Brandon Pettigrew even more than Chase Coffman for our purposes. Best run and block TE in college.

2--OC---Jonathan Luigs will be there while Alex Mack won't.

3--DE---Greg Middleton, superb athlete is still there (for now) in round 3. Don't count on it in April, though.

4--ILB---There will be a run on OLB's in early rounds, but Scott McKillop from Pgh is top 5 in TFL's and Tackles.

5--OLB---Orion Martin of the Hokies has looked in early games, with 2 game changing plays in 2 games in Sept.

6--SS--Michigan State's Otis Wiley is a hitter and a teammate.

7--DT--Alex Magee, Purdue, plays DE and DT, so he slips to here.

[Andrew in CA]

Defensive line will be first prority. Denny, ASchobel, Kelsay and Stroud are not young. Add some young talent to the DLine. If not go Oline.

FTW. If there is a top flight DE available when the Bills pick, snatch him up. After that, BPA at TE, C, or OLB. I feel you can't have too many great DE's, so you take one if one is available, even if it isn't a glaring hole on your team.

[ax4782]

Are you suggesting they should draft the players in this order, even if the quality of what is available does not warrant it?

 

Not exactly. I see those as the positions where we have the most need in the draft, and assuming that the talent pool and quality of player is there, I would like to see them draft this way. But what I would like to see them do and what they will be able to do on draft day are two totally different things. Frankly, I've been very pleased with the talent the FO has gotten during the last two drafts and I am pretty confident they will do an outstanding job again this year.

[The Dean]

Not exactly. I see those as the positions where we have the most need in the draft, and assuming that the talent pool and quality of player is there, I would like to see them draft this way. But what I would like to see them do and what they will be able to do on draft day are two totally different things. Frankly, I've been very pleased with the talent the FO has gotten during the last two drafts and I am pretty confident they will do an outstanding job again this year.

 

 

Gotcha.

 

Thanks

[auburnbillsbacker]

The bills really need a a de that can apply pressure on the qb. The problem however, is that the good pass rushers go real early in the draft. I think the bills will be in a good position to draft an outside lb or a strong safety, assuming Whinter remains at free safety.

[lets_go_bills]

Good stuf Astro. I agree with all your up/down assessments.

[WVUFootball29]

FB: Stock Up. Agreed, passing on Owen Schmitt was a mistake in my opinion as I feel he would have been very successful in this offense. A speedy blocker will make Lynch and Jackson even better.

 

WR: Stock Down. Agreed, WR is a deep spot on this team and upgrades should really only be found via FA at this point.

 

TE: Stock Up. Biggest need in the draft offensively. Travis Beckum and Brandon Pettigrew come to mind quickly here.

 

QB: Stock Up. Disagree. Don't need another young QB at this point, we need a serviceable journeyman type who can come in and be productive with a low learning curve should TE go down.

 

RB:Stock Down. Agreed, no real need here as the RB corps are pretty solid right now

 

OC:Stock Up. Second biggest need on Offense. Jonathan Luigs is out there from Arkansas and would be a great prospect to look at.

 

OT:Stock Down. Agreed Chambers has been decent and looks to be a good backup. Bell, I'm going to need a lot more convincing on.

 

OG: Stock Up. Agreed, Butler has been good, but has trouble staying healthy and Whittle is at the end of his career. Cedric Dockery, Derrick's brother is available this draft as well as the huge Herman Johnson from LSU

 

 

 

 

DE: Stock Up. Agreed, Ellis hasn't seemed to pan out and Schobel's health really puts the Bills thin on the line. Brian Orakpo from Texas could be a major pass rush threat right out of college, think Jevon Kearse.

 

DT:Stock Up. Partially agree. The DTs have been pretty good this year, but with McCargo's future in question, a second day DT would be a good pick

 

LB: Stock up. Agree, I lumped both OLB and MLB together because the Bills really need depth here as I see it as the most pressing need on defense. I really like Rey Maualuga and Marcus Freeman.

 

CB:Stock Down. Partially agree. This hinges on what Greer does after his contract expires.

 

S:Stock Up. Disagree, I like our depth here. Unless a major prospect falls and becomes incredible value this isn't a high area of need IMO.

 

Just my take on things

[The Dean]

I have little to add, except to say, OUTSTANDING discussion. If we're going to have draft talk, this time of year, this is the way to do it.

[Andrew in CA]

DE: Stock Up. Agreed, Ellis hasn't seemed to pan out and Schobel's health really puts the Bills thin on the line. Brian Orakpo from Texas could be a major pass rush threat right out of college, think Jevon Kearse.

I think we should wait to pass judgment on Ellis until he's had some PT. It's way too early too state he hasn't panned out. That being said, I think the DE stock is always up, Dline is so important.

[WVUFootball29]

I think we should wait to pass judgment on Ellis until he's had some PT. It's way too early too state he hasn't panned out. That being said, I think the DE stock is always up, Dline is so important.

 

I'm not writing him off at all, don't get me wrong. It just looks like he is more of a project than his draft location would indicate and given our current depth and Schobel's injury, DE could very well be a Day 1 priority especially if a good one happens to fall to us.

[d_wag]

quick injury note - travis beckum fractured his left tibula on the weekend so he'll be plummeting down draft boards........puts to an end a tough senior season for him, but he could be a steal if he can get back to 100%