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The Definition Of A Reach - A Lot Of People Are Confused IMO

Steely Dan
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What is a reach?  

54 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think best describes a reach.

    • A reach is a player taken 5-10 places before the draft boards predict.
      5
    • A reach is a player taken 10-20 places before the draft boards predict.
      9
    • A reach is a player taken 20-30 places before the draft boards predict.
      7
    • A reach is a player taken when that player will probably be available when the team makes their next pick.
      27
    • Other - Must Explain.
      6

  2. 2. Teams can trade down in a draft -

    • Everytime they want to.
      8
    • 80-90% of the time.
      1
    • 70-80% of the time.
      1
    • 60-70% of the time.
      1
    • 50-60% of the time.
      1
    • 40-50% of the time.
      1
    • 30-40% of the time.
      5
    • 20-30% of the time.
      12
    • 10-20% of the time.
      12
    • Less than 10%
      7
    • Must explain my answer.
      5

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Dawgg Veteran

Dawgg

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The Bills are already going down this path as they have significantly overpaid according to the trade chart for moving up the last 2 years

 

What they paid to move back and get Poz was ridiculous, especially with David Harris still on the board.

 

Marv said after the draft that the Bills were aggressively trying to trade back into the FIRST ROUND to get him. <_<

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obie_wan Veteran

obie_wan

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What they paid to move back and get Poz was ridiculous, especially with David Harris still on the board.

 

Marv said after the draft that the Bills were aggressively trying to trade back into the FIRST ROUND to get him. <_<

 

What they gave up was the value they needed to get into the 1st round.

 

After those trades fell apart, they basicaly just kept the same deal parameters in place although they were not moving up as far.

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Bill from NYC Hall of Famer

Bill from NYC

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Whitner cost us more than a first round pick? Couldn't it be we didnt want to trade down for fear he would be gone by then?

 

 

 

The problem is, that is not a fact. How can you say it is a fact we could have had Whitner later on and gained a second rounder? Come on, Bill.

 

So you think that at pick number 15, Whitner is a good pick, but at number 8 he is not? So 7 picks qualifies as a "reach" for you. Interesting.

 

The guy is a first round talent, he should be picked in the first round, and he was. Its not even like he was rated at the end of the first round, he was top 15, and thats where we picked him.

 

Please, show me where I stated, or even implied this ans man! In fact, I have never said that Whitner would have been available at #15 (or anywhere else) in any post since he was drafted. Frankly, this was never my concern.

 

You see, your post implies that drafting Whittner was an absolute must. I completely disagree. In 06, we had a horrid OL and holes all over the place, including DT (yeah I know we took McCargo, but he cost us 2 picks). We had 4 first day picks and walked away with Whitner, McCargo and Youboty. Sorry, this is not good imo. To add salt to the wound, we took Simpson early in round 4. I know how popular it is to say great things about him, and I truly hope he is good, but when I have watched him he looks like he is running in sand.

 

And, I agree with Kelly. We got Butler in round 5 and I like the kid but from where I sit, he would have been a good 3rd round pick for virtually any team, not a reach.

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ans4e64 Veteran

ans4e64

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Please, show me where I stated, or even implied this ans man! In fact, I have never said that Whitner would have been available at #15 (or anywhere else) in any post since he was drafted. Frankly, this was never my concern.

 

You see, your post implies that drafting Whittner was an absolute must. I completely disagree. In 06, we had a horrid OL and holes all over the place, including DT (yeah I know we took McCargo, but he cost us 2 picks). We had 4 first day picks and walked away with Whitner, McCargo and Youboty. Sorry, this is not good imo. To add salt to the wound, we took Simpson early in round 4. I know how popular it is to say great things about him, and I truly hope he is good, but when I have watched him he looks like he is running in sand.

 

And, I agree with Kelly. We got Butler in round 5 and I like the kid but from where I sit, he would have been a good 3rd round pick for virtually any team, not a reach.

 

Oh okay. I thought your post said we could have traded back for Whitner and picked up an extra pick.

 

I don't understand how my post implies drafting Whitner was a must. All I said was he was rated as a top 15 player, and that is where we picked him.

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Bill from NYC Hall of Famer

Bill from NYC

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Oh okay. I thought your post said we could have traded back for Whitner and picked up an extra pick.

 

I don't understand how my post implies drafting Whitner was a must. All I said was he was rated as a top 15 player, and that is where we picked him.

 

OK, so we misunderstood eachother. :ph34r:

 

I like this topic. Imo, it comes down to how to build a football team. I will always believe making the secondary the top priority (for a bad team) is an idiotic way to go, and I think that the Bills are living proof.

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Steely Dan Hall of Famer

Steely Dan

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What they paid to move back and get Poz was ridiculous, especially with David Harris still on the board.

 

Marv said after the draft that the Bills were aggressively trying to trade back into the FIRST ROUND to get him. :ph34r:

 

But teams always trade back when they can. It's just a smart thing to do all the time!!

 

OK, so we misunderstood eachother. ;)

 

I like this topic. Imo, it comes down to how to build a football team. I will always believe making the secondary the top priority (for a bad team) is an idiotic way to go, and I think that the Bills are living proof.

 

The cover 2 scheme requires a great safety. If you look at the teams that run it successfully they all have a good safety.

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Bill from NYC Hall of Famer

Bill from NYC

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Besides "reach", the biggest problem i have with the fans and the draft, is how some fans complain our draft sucked because we drafted position X at spot Y. Nevermind how good the player turns out to be, they think our draft was a disaster because we took a specific position. That screams of a personal agenda, with little regard to actual football analysis and knowledge.

 

Way too simplistic, and beneath your posting standards.

 

If a team plays in the cold and can't block nor stop the run, using a #8 on a safety would be stupid under almost any circumstances. If Ronnie Lott is there, take him. If not, build a strong football team, and get players such as Duke Preston off of the football field. When a good DT is there, take him, instead of giving millions to a poor player such as Tripplett. The Bills could have drafted Ngata and acquired a 2nd, or so it would appear. Mangold was there too, as was Davin Joseph.

 

The Bills play in the elements at home, let alone road games in New Jersey and Foxboro. They need strong guys to enable them to run, and stop their opponents from running a lot more than they need to use their best resources on defensive backs. There is no sane way to dispute this.

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ans4e64 Veteran

ans4e64

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OK, so we misunderstood eachother. :ph34r:

 

I like this topic. Imo, it comes down to how to build a football team. I will always believe making the secondary the top priority (for a bad team) is an idiotic way to go, and I think that the Bills are living proof.

 

I agree. This is a great thread.

 

I think your top priority depends on how your team is and what you need. I agree generally with you, but if your front 7 are set and your secondary sucks, you take the DB. And I'm not making a Bills analogy here, or trying to say our picks were justified, just speaking on general terms.

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Dawgg Veteran

Dawgg

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I don't understand how my post implies drafting Whitner was a must. All I said was he was rated as a top 15 player, and that is where we picked him.

 

... and we picked him the top 10.

 

Huge difference. Taking a Top 15 player in the Top 10 is just not a smart thing to do, particularly when your team has a number of holes (as the Bills did).

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ans4e64 Veteran

ans4e64

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... and we picked him the top 10.

 

Huge difference. Taking a Top 15 player in the Top 10 is just not a smart thing to do, particularly when your team has a number of holes (as the Bills did).

 

The real issue that everyone is masking in saying Donte was a reach, is that they really wanted Ngata, and felt we should have picked a lineman first.

 

Since Ngata was rated between picks 10-15, I guess picking him at #8 would have been a reach then too.

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Steely Dan Hall of Famer

Steely Dan

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Not when you overpay :ph34r:

 

The point was a lot of teams passed on the Bills offer because they didn't think taking the offer was worth it.

 

 

The real issue that everyone is masking in saying Donte was a reach, is that they really wanted Ngata, and felt we should have picked a lineman first.

 

Since Ngata was rated between picks 10-15, I guess picking him at #8 would have been a reach then too.

 

To build a team a lot of players will be needed at a lot of positions. These guys know what they're doing. They are looking ahead to future drafts, as well, to see who will be available.

 

They've done a good job so far IMO.

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Dibs Veteran

Dibs

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Still doubtful in my mind. I just don't think too many teams would still do it unless it's for free or very close like a 7th round pick and then I'd be wary of doing that.......

I generally agree.....generally.

Where I differ is that a 5th round pick, though something of value, actually is not worth very much at all. The difference according to the chart & my previous example is getting 40pts instead of 250pts......whereas a 7th rounder would be 13pts. The success rate of 5th rounders is so minimal that in relation to getting your player of choice, a 5th rounder would be close enough to free. Player of choice meaning: the individual team is getting a player that they rate at least a bracket higher than what they are looking at getting, or getting the player of 'need' position in that bracket that they feel they will miss out on.

 

I totally agree that a team should be wary of doing this......in effect they would be giving a 'good deal' to an opposing team. It certainly should never be done within the division(perhaps conference) but if it meant that you end up with a better draft at the expense of some NFC team ending up with a bit more than better draft I don't see the problem.

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Dibs Veteran

Dibs

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...A great example of a reach was Whitner. Not only was he taken at #8, the Bills turned down numerous trade offers (according to Marv) to move down. So in reality, he cost us more than a #8.....

Just on this Bill.....he only cost us more than a #8 if we could have traded down & still picked him up(which is total speculation).

Assuming that we could not have gotten him if we traded down then all he cost us was a #8 pick since the trade down would likely have been done in line with the trade value chart......meaning we would have ended up with the same amount of TVC points being the equivalent of the #8 pick.

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Dibs Veteran

Dibs

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Who gives a sh*t that he outplayed Huff ?

Neither one is a good pick on the basis that very few safeties become true impact players that warrant that being draft that high.

So he out played another safety ....big f*cking deal.

 

You rarely draft punters high in the 1st round for a reason and it also holds true at other positions.

 

It WAS a reach !!!

Ironic user name. :ph34r:

 

Safety has become a far most important position in the modern day NFL than it ever was before. This is not even considering that safeties are the more important position to a Tampa2 D than CB.

 

You rarely draft Safeties that high?

Well let's have a look.

In the last 6 drafts the top 8 selections are as follows

QB - 9

OT - 7

WR - 7

S - 5

CB - 5

RB - 5

DE - 4

DT - 3

TE - 2

LB - 1

 

Seems to me some need to rethink their views on the role a safety plays in the modern game.

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ans4e64 Veteran

ans4e64

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Ironic user name. :ph34r:

 

Safety has become a far most important position in the modern day NFL than it ever was before. This is not even considering that safeties are the more important position to a Tampa2 D than CB.

 

You rarely draft Safeties that high?

Well let's have a look.

In the last 6 drafts the top 8 selections are as follows

QB - 9

OT - 7

WR - 7

S - 5

CB - 5

RB - 5

DE - 4

DT - 3

TE - 2

LB - 1

 

Seems to me some need to rethink their views on the role a safety plays in the modern game.

 

Good post. Interesting info. I wouldn't have thought safeties were picked more than DE, DT, and same as RBs.

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Dawgg Veteran

Dawgg

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You rarely draft Safeties that high?

Well let's have a look.

In the last 6 drafts the top 8 selections are as follows

QB - 9

OT - 7

WR - 7

S - 5

 

Seems to me some need to rethink their views on the role a safety plays in the modern game.

 

Don't think taking a safety in the Top 8 is a bad idea, per se... BUT...

 

Roy Williams, Sean Taylor (RIP), and Laron Landry are in a far superior class than Donte Whitner and Huff. 2006 was not a year to devote a top 10 pick to a safety... important position, no argument there... but Whitner simply is not in that class (yet). I for one would be thrilled to eat crow if I see it happen this year, or any year for that matter :ph34r:

 

That said, I think it was fairly evident even before the draft, that Whitner is not in the same class as Roy Will, Sean T, Palomalu, etc...

Go Bills

 

So in my view, your numbers still don't justify that pick.

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