More on playoff tiebreakers

[tornado681]

In today's article entitled "Best-case scenario puts Bills a win from playoffs" isn't

exactly correct based on my calculations. Assuming the "best case" scenario happens (NE

over JAX; MIA over JETS; DEN over CIN), the Bills wont exactly control their playoff

destiny if they win out. CIN can still beat BUF on a tiebreaker. For proof, see below.

From nfl.com, a 3 way tiebreaker for the WC is determined by:

 

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each

division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon

application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications

of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

 

Thow this out, CIN is not in our division.

 

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if

one club has lost to each of the others.)

 

Throw this out. Continue to 3.

 

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

 

If CIN goes 9-7 we will both be 7-5 in the AFC. Continue to 4.

 

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

 

Throw this out. CIN and BUF will both be 1-3.

 

5. Strength of victory (SoV).

 

CIN's SoV is currently 50-62 = .446

BUF's SoV is currently 45-55 = .450

 

BUF for now is ahead based on this tiebreaker. But, This is close enough so that it

could be different by week 17. BUFs SoV will be helped out a lot by a win over BAL.

Teams we want to win include MIA, GB, MIN, and HOU. Teams we want to lose include CLE,

CAR, NO, and OAK.

 

So even if the best case scenario happens, BUF still wont control their own destiny

because other teams winning/losing will effect the tiebreaker scenarios.

[The Poojer]

wow! alot of information, but you presented it very well...I actually understood it..thanks, I am printing this out for handy reference

 

In today's article entitled "Best-case scenario puts Bills a win from playoffs" isn't

exactly correct based on my calculations.  Assuming the "best case" scenario happens (NE

over JAX; MIA over JETS; DEN over CIN), the Bills wont exactly control their playoff

destiny if they win out.  CIN can still beat BUF on a tiebreaker.  For proof, see below. 

From nfl.com, a 3 way tiebreaker for the WC is determined by:

 

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each

division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon

application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications

of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

 

Thow this out, CIN is not in our division.

 

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if

one club has lost to each of the others.)

 

Throw this out.  Continue to 3.

 

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

 

If CIN goes 9-7 we will both be 7-5 in the AFC.  Continue to 4.

 

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

 

Throw this out.  CIN and BUF will both be 1-3.

 

5. Strength of victory (SoV).

 

CIN's SoV is currently 50-62 = .446

BUF's SoV is currently 45-55 = .450

 

BUF for now is ahead based on this tiebreaker.  But, This is close enough so that it

could be different by week 17.  BUFs SoV will be helped out a lot by a win over BAL. 

Teams we want to win include MIA, GB, MIN, and HOU. Teams we want to lose include CLE,

CAR, NO, and OAK.

 

So even if the best case scenario happens, BUF still wont control their own destiny

because other teams winning/losing will effect the tiebreaker scenarios.

875056[/snapback]

[Sen. John Blutarsky]

5. Strength of victory (SoV).

 

CIN's SoV is currently 50-62 = .446

BUF's SoV is currently 45-55 = .450

 

BUF for now is ahead based on this tiebreaker.  But, This is close enough so that it

could be different by week 17.  BUFs SoV will be helped out a lot by a win over BAL. 

Teams we want to win include MIA, GB, MIN, and HOU. Teams we want to lose include CLE,

CAR, NO, and OAK.

 

So even if the best case scenario happens, BUF still wont control their own destiny

because other teams winning/losing will effect the tiebreaker scenarios.

875056[/snapback]

Right, but if we win out we'll have wins against teams with a minimum 18 combined wins, that won't hurt. it makes it much more unlikely that the Bengals can catch us. if we were playing Oakland or such the next two weeks it would be a bigger problem.

[Dan]

So do I want Denver to win or not?

[Ozymandius]

So do I want Denver to win or not?

875084[/snapback]

The answer will be different depending on the person. If you are confident Miami will beat the Jets, root for Denver. If you are not that confident, root for Cincinnati.

[Ozymandius]

If everything we need to happen happens, we should have the SOV over Cincy.

 

Buffalo victories with projected wins for those teams:

1. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for)

2. Minnesota, 6-8, @GB/vs Stl..... 7 wins

3. GB, 6-8, vs Min/@Chi..... 7 or 8 wins (Chi has nothing to play for)

4. Hou, 4-10, vs Indy/vs Cle..... 4 or 5 wins

5. Jax, 8-6, vs NE/at KC..... 8 or 9 wins

6. Jets, 8-6, at Mia/vs Oak..... 9 wins

7. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for)

8. Ten, 7-7, at Buf/vs NE..... 7 or 8 wins (NE should have nothing to play for)

9. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins

 

Buffalo's projected strength of victory: 67 to 73 wins

 

 

Cincy's victories with projected wins for those teams:

1. KC, 7-7, at Oak/vs Jax..... 9 wins

2. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins

3. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins

4. Car, 6-8, at Atl/at NO..... 6 or 7 wins (NO might have nothing to play for)

5. NO, 9-5, at NYG/vs Car..... 10 or 11 wins (NO might have nothing to play for vs Car)

6. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins

7. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins

8. Oak, 2-12, KC/at NYJ..... 2 wins

9. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins

 

Cincy's projected strength of victory: 64 to 68 wins

[Stussy109]

The answer will be different depending on the person.  If you are confident Miami will beat the Jets, root for Denver.  If you are not that confident, root for Cincinnati.

875088[/snapback]

 

 

Lets just beat the TITANS!

[Dan]

The answer will be different depending on the person.  If you are confident Miami will beat the Jets, root for Denver.  If you are not that confident, root for Cincinnati.

875088[/snapback]

Considering what will have to transpire should the Jets win, there is no alternative. The Jets have to lose on Monday night. Hence, I think I'll be rooting for Denver. Provided of course we beat the Titans. If we don't, then I'll be too drunk to even care if a football game is being played.

[Ozymandius]

Considering what will have to transpire should the Jets win, there is no alternative.  The  Jets have to lose on Monday night. Hence, I think I'll be rooting for Denver.  Provided of course we beat the Titans.  If we don't, then I'll be too drunk to even care if a football game is being played.

875096[/snapback]

I hear ya about being too drunk too care. Still, nothing too outrageous would have to occur if the Jets win and Cincy beats Denver. Pittsburgh would need to beat Cincy and then KC would have to win their last two (Oakland, Jax) and the Bills would make the playoffs provided we win OUR last two.

 

For a lot of people, it'd be best to just root for the Bills and let the other chips fall where they may.

[Dan]

I hear ya about being too drunk too care.  Still, nothing too outrageous would have to occur if the Jets win and Cincy beats Denver.  Pittsburgh would need to beat Cincy and then KC would have to win their last two (Oakland, Jax) and the Bills would make the playoffs provided we win OUR last two.

 

For a lot of people, it'd be best to just root for the Bills and let the other chips fall where they may.

875099[/snapback]

No way, I gotta know who to cheer for. I think its starting to all sink in for me finally, who needs to win what. I wish I had the brain to do all the permutations you playoff gurus are doing. It's great!

[Sen. John Blutarsky]

I sat down and did some more math.

 

We need to win both games, that makes Tennessee a worst case scenario 7-9 and Baltimore a worst case scenario 11-5 at the end of the year. Which makes our SOV 63-65 .492

 

Cincinnati must lose next week anyway so their SOV remains unchanged. For Baltimore's worst possible record to occur they must lose to Pittsburgh this week, Cincinnati would then beat Pittsburgh in week 17 making Pittsburgh 8-8. Cincinnati's SOV would then be 58-70 .453 If the Ravens beat Pittsburgh it makes the Bills' 64-64 and the Bengals' 57-71

 

Given that buffalo needs to win against two decent teams who can finish 7-9 and 11-5 at worst (8-8 and 11-4 at best) and that Cincinnati can ONLY beat a team who will be 8-8 at best that helps the Bills.

 

Add the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game this week to your watch list, we want Baltimore to win because it helps us. Cincinnati split with the Ravens and will have to sweep Pittsburgh in this scenario. A Baltimore win this week will only help the Bengals one time as they have one win against them, a win against an 11 win team becomes a win against a 12 win team (which also helps us in the exact same way the following week since we play Balt. and must win so that increase cancels out) if the Steelers win it will help the Bengals twice because those two 7's for wins against Pittsburgh will become two 8's - also we don't play Pittsburgh at all so we get no benefit from it at all. Go Ravens.

 

Any team you've beaten you want to win, if you've beaten them twice you really want them to win.

 

And yes, you want Denver to win.

[Sen. John Blutarsky]

On the plus side, the Jets game is last, not until Monday night. By then you'll know what you want to have happen because the Denver Cincinatti game will already be over. If Denver wins go Miami, if Cincy wins go Miami anyway but it isn't as big a deal.

 

There are outs either way, there are more if Denver and Miami win though.

[MikeH]

On the plus side, the Jets game is last, not until Monday night.  By then you'll know what you want to have happen because the Denver Cincinatti game will already be over.  If Denver wins go Miami, if Cincy wins go Miami anyway but it isn't as big a deal.

 

There are outs either way, there are more if Denver and Miami win though.

875111[/snapback]

We definitely root for Miami + New England no matter what. We also want KC over Oakland because, if this happens, we cannot be eliminated with a win over the Titans. The outcome of the KC/Oakland game(glad it's on Saturday night) will determine who to root for in the Denver/Cincy game. If KC wins ... root for Denver, because we can then control our own destiny with Miami beating the Jets(and if the Jets win, we are not eliminated). If Oakland wins ... root for Cincy, because I would hate to go into Monday night knowing a Jets win would eliminate us. Oakland, Denver + the Jets winning would be the worst thing that could happen ... besides us losing of course.

[tornado681]

We definitely root for Miami + New England no matter what. We also want KC over Oakland because, if this happens,  we cannot be eliminated with a win over the Titans. The outcome of the KC/Oakland game(glad it's on Saturday night) will determine who to root for in the Denver/Cincy game. If KC wins ... root for Denver, because we can then control our own destiny with Miami beating the Jets(and if the Jets win, we are not eliminated). If Oakland wins ... root for Cincy, because I would hate to go into Monday night knowing a Jets win would eliminate us. Oakland, Denver + the Jets winning would be the worst thing that could happen ... besides us losing of course.

875170[/snapback]

 

Nice. Thats huge. I didnt realize the KC/Oakland game was on saturday. You made a good point here. Go KC, MIA, DEN and NE! Oh yeah, and go BUF too!

[Koufax]

Just to add some math to the puzzle to figure this out, assuming the BUF, NE, MIA, and DEN wins this weekend...

 

Right now Buffalo's 9 victories add up to 62 SOW wins on the books. We have assumed in the best case scenario for this weekend that Miami wins, so we are to 64, and GB plays min so we are to 65. If Miami wins and we win out, the lowest our SOW could possibly be is 65 if everything else went as wrong as possible.

 

Right now Cincinnati could conceivably make it to 69 wins since they have to beat Pit for this to happen (Pit beating Bal since they have two Pit wins on their 9-7). They have 57 in the bank right now, but since they have Bal v Pit, and Oak v KC and NO v CAR on their schedule the lowest they could mathematically have is 60

 

So far based on the above, they could still win this tie breaker as much as 69-65. If Baltimore beats Pittsburgh this drops to 68-66 worst case scenario for the Bills. And we are talking about a bunch of games which would have to go in their favor for this to happen:

 

So Cincinnati can be from 60 to 69, and Buffalo will be at least 65 before anything else goes our way. This could easily be wrapped up this weekend allowing us to control our own fate, but is still not a certainty. We should be rooting for Baltimore, Atlanta, NYG, and Tampa Bay this weekend to help make this probably a definitely heading into the final week.