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Buffalo Playoff Scenarios

ChasBB

By ChasBB
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ChasBB Veteran

ChasBB

Posted
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Here's the relevant information ...

 

Current win-loss records are (Overall/Division/Conference)

 

Week #15:

Cincy (8-5/4-1/6-3) @ Indy

 

Week #16:

KC (7-7/3-2/3-7) at Oak

Balt at Pit (7-7/2-2/4-6)

NE at Jax (8-6/2-4/5-5)

Tenn (7-7/4-2/4-6) at Buf (7-7/3-3/5-5)

Cincy at Den (8-6/3-3/7-4)

NYJ (8-6/3-2/5-5) at Mia

 

Week #17:

Buf at Balt

Jax at KC

NE at Tenn

Oak at NYJ

Pit at Cincy

SF at Den

 

Buf with KC, Pit, Cincy or Den (no head-to-head games)

Buf with Jax, Tenn, & NYJ (head-to-head considered)

 

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

 

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

 

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in common games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

 

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.

2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

 

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

4. Strength of victory.

5. Strength of schedule.

6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best net points in conference games.

9. Best net points in all games.

10. Best net touchdowns in all games.

11. Coin toss.

 

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

5. Strength of victory.

6. Strength of schedule.

7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9. Best net points in conference games.

10. Best net points in all games.

11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

12. Coin toss

 

Buf must defeat Tenn & Balt to finish 9-7

NYJ must lose to Mia if Buf is to finish above NYJ

Cincy must lose 2 of 3 Buf is to finish above Cincy

Den must lose to Cincy & SF if Buf is to finish above Den

Den wins tiebreaker with Buffalo based on common games

Both Buf & Den would be 9-7/3-3/7-5, but in common opponents:

Den & Buf both played NE, Balt, Indy & SD:

Den over NE (Buf lost to NE twice)

Den over Balt (TBD)

Indy over Den (Buf lost to Indy)

SD over Den (twice) (Buf lost to SD)

Den is 2-3 in common games while Buf would be 1-4 (assuming Buf win over Balt)

 

Jax Must lose 1 of 2 to either NE or KC if Buf is to finish above Jax

Really doesn't matter to Buffalo which one they lose.

 

Even if Pit defeats both Balt & Cincy, Buf still finishes above Pit base on conf. %)

Even if KC defeats both Oak & Jax, Buf still finishes above KC based on conf. %)

 

Therefore, these are the possible scenarios for a Buf playoff berth (with help from Ozymandius & Koufax):

 

1. Buf defeats Tenn & Balt

NYJ lose to Mia

Jax loses 1 of 2

Cincy loses to Indy, Den, & Pit

(Den 5th, Buf 6th)

 

2. Buf defeats Tenn & Balt

NYJ lose to Mia

Jax loses 1 of 2

Den loses to Cincy & SF

(Cincy 5th, Buf 6th)

 

3. Buf defeats Tenn & Balt

NYJ lose to Mia

Jax loses 1 of 2

Cincy loses to Indy, Den, & Pit

(Den 5th, Buf 6th)

3b. Same as above exceptg Cincy beats Pit.

Buf might take Cincy on Strength of Victory tiebreaker (see Oxymandius post).

 

4. Buf defeats Tenn & Balt

NYJ lose to Mia

KC defeats Oak & Jax

Den loses to Cincy

(Cincy 5th, Buf 6th)

KC takes Denver in Division tie-breaker, Buf takes KC in Conf. tie-breaker

 

Here's two ways Buffalo picks up 5th seed! ...

 

5. Buf defeats Tenn & Balt

NYJ lose to Mia

Cincy loses to Indy, defeats Den, loses to Pit

Den loses to SF (& loses to Cincy as described above)

Jax loses 1 of 2)

(Buf 5th!)

 

6. Buf defeats Tenn & Balt

NYJ lose to Mia

Cincy loses to Indy, defeats Den, loses to Pit

Den defeats SF

KC defeats Oak & Jax

(Buf 5th!)

KC takes Denver in Division tie-breaker, Buf takes KC in Conf. tie-breaker.

Buf likely wins Strength of Victory tie-breaker against Cincy (see Oxymandius post).

 

There may be some other scenarios that would involve games ending in ties, but I think these are the most likely scenarios.

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

Posted
Posted

chazbb, good catch. I was just about to correct you on the tiebreakers. Basically the material in your original post is incomplete/inaccurate as it stands right now until you work through the correct tiebreakers you just posted. There are several threads out there right now with the correct scenarios if you want to reference them.

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Koufax Veteran

Koufax

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Den must lose to Cincy & SF if Buf is to finish above Den

  Den wins tiebreaker with Buffalo based on common games

  Both Buf & Den would be 9-7/3-3/7-5, but in common opponents:

    Den & Buf both played NE, Balt, Indy & SD:

      Den over NE (Buf lost to NE twice)

      Den over Balt (TBD)

      Indy over Den (Buf lost to Indy)

      SD over Den (twice) (Buf lost to SD)

      Den is 2-3 in common games while Buf would be 1-4 (assuming Buf win over Balt)

 

 

This is assuming a two way tie only, not saying that we need Denver to lose both to finish ahead of them, right? Because I thought if KC, Denver, and Buffalo finish in a three way tie at 9-7, KC eliminates Denver right?

 

If that is correct, there is also this scenario:

 

5. Buffalo wins out

Jets lose to Miami

KC beats Oakland and Jacksonville

Denver loses to Cin but beats SF

 

Doesn't that put Cin 5th, Bills 6th? Just wondering because that would be an important alternative route since none of your scenarios allow Denver to lose to Cincinnati and beat the 49ers, where this one does.

 

Just wanted to add my two cents and get corrected if I've missed something.

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ChasBB Veteran

ChasBB

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This is assuming a two way tie only, not saying that we need Denver to lose both to finish ahead of them, right?  Because I thought if KC, Denver, and Buffalo finish in a three way tie at 9-7, KC eliminates Denver right?

 

If that is correct, there is also this scenario:

 

5. Buffalo wins out

Jets lose to Miami

KC beats Oakland and Jacksonville

Denver loses to Cin but beats SF

 

Doesn't that put Cin 5th, Bills 6th?  Just wondering because that would be an important alternative route since none of your scenarios allow Denver to lose to Cincinnati and beat the 49ers, where this one does.

 

Just wanted to add my two cents and get corrected if I've missed something.

871034[/snapback]

 

I think you are correct. I also realized this when I read Ozymandius' Week 16 post. More good news for Buffalo! I've again edited my original post with this info. Thx.

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ezbills Practice Squad

ezbills

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A lot of the scenarios are discussed here:

 

http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=56563

 

The biggest source of confusion is over the Bills/ Bengals tiebreakers. If the Bengals win tonight against Indy, the Bengals would win the tiebreaker by having a better record vs common opponents.

 

If Indy beats Cincy, the tiebreaker would be strength of victory since the Bills and Bengals would have identical AFC records and records vs common opponents. The Bills hold a decent edge in that tiebreaker at the moment although the final outcome will not be determined until after the final week of games.

 

The Steelers are irrelevant to the Bills playoff chances. If the Bengals and Steelers are tied at 9-7, the Bengals would win the tiebreaker which is applied first before any inter-division ties are broken. If the Bengals dropped down to 8-8, the Steelers would still finish behind the Bills based on AFC record.

 

I'm planning on posting the details of the Cincy/Bills tiebreaker and other helpful info after work...

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ChasBB Veteran

ChasBB

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The biggest source of confusion is over the Bills/ Bengals tiebreakers. If the Bengals win tonight against Indy, the Bengals would win the tiebreaker by having a better record vs common opponents.

871061[/snapback]

 

Edit -- Never mind -- Cincy loses 2 of 3 they end up 7-5 like us. Sorry 'bout that.

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

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ezbills - good link. Since that was the original original tiebreaker thread, I have added it to my Week 16 rooting post.

 

As for the Cincy/Bills tiebreaker... I've tried estimating it right here

 

Buffalo victories with projected wins for those teams:

1. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for)

2. Minnesota, 6-8, @GB/vs Stl..... 7 wins

3. GB, 6-8, vs Min/@Chi..... 7 or 8 wins (Chi has nothing to play for)

4. Hou, 4-10, vs Indy/vs Cle..... 4 or 5 wins

5. Jax, 8-6, vs NE/at KC..... 8 or 9 wins

6. Jets, 8-6, at Mia/vs Oak..... 9 wins

7. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for)

8. Ten, 7-7, at Buf/vs NE..... 7 or 8 wins (NE should have nothing to play for)

9. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins

 

Buffalo's projected strength of victory: 67 to 73 wins

 

 

Cincy's victories with projected wins for those teams:

1. KC, 7-7, at Oak/vs Jax..... 9 wins

2. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins

3. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins

4. Car, 6-8, at Atl/at NO..... 6 or 7 wins (NO might have nothing to play for)

5. NO, 9-5, at NYG/vs Car..... 10 or 11 wins (NO might have nothing to play for vs Car)

6. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins

7. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins

8. Oak, 2-12, KC/at NYJ..... 2 wins

9. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins

 

Cincy's projected strength of victory: 64 to 68 wins

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Koufax Veteran

Koufax

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If Indy beats Cincy, the tiebreaker would be strength of victory since the Bills and Bengals would have identical AFC records and records vs common opponents. The Bills hold a decent edge in that tiebreaker at the moment although the final outcome will not be determined until after the final week of games.

 

871061[/snapback]

 

Right, but that final outcome also requires an impressive Bills win over the Ravens (something already included in the Bengals number), so I have to think if we are both 9-7 we are likely to win this one. It will not be certain until all is said and done, but I am not worried about that one.

 

Edit: Ozymandius just beat me with much more complete information on this uncertainty. Thanks!

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

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Cincy has 3 conference opponents left on the schedule.  If they lose 2 of 3, they finish 8-6 in conference (1.33333...), while Buffalo, if they win out, will finish 7-5 in conference (1.4).  1.4 beats 1.33333 so Buffalo wins tie-breaker even if Cincy defeats Indy tonight, but loses next two after that.  Conf. % comes before common opponents in tie-breaker.

871068[/snapback]

 

chaz, if Cincy loses 2 of 3, they will have a 7-5 conference record, same as Buffalo.

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Ozymandius Veteran

Ozymandius

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No problem, bro.

 

Bills should have the tiebreaker advantage over Cincy if we both finish 9-7, going by my projections above.

 

In that case, one scenario to get the #5 seed would be:

Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh

Jets lose to Miami

KC beats Oakland and Jax

 

In that scenario, Bills get #5 seed, Cincy gets #6 seed (Denver drops out to KC and Jets drop out to Bills under divisional tiebreakers, KC drops out to both Bills and Cincy due to lesser conference record, and then Cincy drops out to Bills due to aforementioned strength of victory tiebreaker).

 

Then:

(1) Buff beats New England

(2) Cincy beats Baltimore

(3) Buff beats Indy

(4) Cincy beats SD

(5) Buff hosts AFC championship game against Cincy, beats them

(6) Buff wins Super Bowl against Saints

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ChasBB Veteran

ChasBB

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No problem, bro.

 

Bills should have the tiebreaker advantage over Cincy if we both finish 9-7, going by my projections above.

 

In that case, one scenario to get the #5 seed would be:

Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh

Jets lose to Miami

KC beats Oakland and Jax

 

In that scenario, Bills get #5 seed, Cincy gets #6 seed (Denver drops out to KC and Jets drop out to Bills under divisional tiebreakers, KC drops out to both Bills and Cincy due to lesser conference record, and then Cincy drops out to Bills due to aforementioned strength of victory tiebreaker).

 

Then:

(1) Buff beats New England

(2) Cincy beats Baltimore

(3) Buff beats SD

(4) Cincy beats Indy

(5) Buff hosts AFC championship game against Cincy, beats them

(6) Buff wins Super Bowl against Saints

871106[/snapback]

 

Great work Ozy -- I like it!

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