BuffOrange Posted November 1, 2006 Author Share Posted November 1, 2006 Rams +11.5? Against Martyball? Had to make the Chargers earn it. Unfortunately they did. 821559[/snapback] I thought it was 9. In any case, since the Chargers got good in 2004 Martyball has managed to score lots of points against bad defenses at home. The Rams offense just isn't that good on the road. That fumble return was a bad break for the Rams though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I have to say, I love the Bills in this game. As is so often the case in the NFL, neither team is as good/bad as they've looked in the last 2-3 games. GB is playing better now, but the Bills looked to be clearly a better team in the 1st month. On a neutral field it's close, so the line doesn't look too off. But coming off a bye, at home against a week NFC team when everyone in Western NY is about to jump off a cliff and/or hoping for a loss and a top draft pick is pretty much the prototypical game where the Bills play well, get a few turnovers, and control the clock. The Redskins game in 2003 when Henry ran wild and the Rams game in 2004 were the same way (I distinctly remember people asking: "Why are we favored in this game? I'm betting everything on the Rams"). I thought "lol, yeah bet on the Rams on the road - that always works out well". Shockingly this annual game was missing from last year, though it really should've been the Atlanta game if JP wasn't so green. Favre is also due for one of those brutal road games that we've all come to know & love. I predict Clements will actually get his head out of his ass with a pick or two. So for only the 2nd time this year (the first being that I loved the Lions +2 a couple weeks ago) I'm pretty sure I know what's going to happen ATS in a Bills game this year. Thoughts? 820025[/snapback] We think alike Orange, I'll be making a decent wager on the Bills. The bye gave them an extra week to prepare, and also gave them an extra week to hear how bad they suck. They will be as ready for this game as any this year. On the other side the Packers posted two consecutive wins against teams that are worse then the Bills. One in Miami, and the second at home against a mortally wounded Cardinal team. On Wagerline the Packers are being bet at a 63% clip, so people are starting to adjust to the two Packer wins. It looks like a classic trap game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornerville Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 Take the Packers with confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stussy109 Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I have to say, I love the Bills in this game. As is so often the case in the NFL, neither team is as good/bad as they've looked in the last 2-3 games. GB is playing better now, but the Bills looked to be clearly a better team in the 1st month. On a neutral field it's close, so the line doesn't look too off. But coming off a bye, at home against a week NFC team when everyone in Western NY is about to jump off a cliff and/or hoping for a loss and a top draft pick is pretty much the prototypical game where the Bills play well, get a few turnovers, and control the clock. The Redskins game in 2003 when Henry ran wild and the Rams game in 2004 were the same way (I distinctly remember people asking: "Why are we favored in this game? I'm betting everything on the Rams"). I thought "lol, yeah bet on the Rams on the road - that always works out well". Shockingly this annual game was missing from last year, though it really should've been the Atlanta game if JP wasn't so green. Favre is also due for one of those brutal road games that we've all come to know & love. I predict Clements will actually get his head out of his ass with a pick or two. So for only the 2nd time this year (the first being that I loved the Lions +2 a couple weeks ago) I'm pretty sure I know what's going to happen ATS in a Bills game this year. Thoughts? 820025[/snapback] BET THE FARM ON GREEN BAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I 90 Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I have no idea what to make of that line. Typically, spreads in the 3.5 to 5-point range are Vegas' way of saying, "Yeah, um, we really have no clue what's going to happen either." 820263[/snapback] Bad, bad line. The half shouldn't really be needed to attract Packer money, IMO. Makes the Bills look like the "smart money" pick. My guess is it doesn't stay at 3.5. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Brady Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 Has Brett ever won in Buffalo...........?? Don't think so............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 We think alike Orange, I'll be making a decent wager on the Bills. The bye gave them an extra week to prepare, and also gave them an extra week to hear how bad they suck. They will be as ready for this game as any this year. On the other side the Packers posted two consecutive wins against teams that are worse then the Bills. One in Miami, and the second at home against a mortally wounded Cardinal team. On Wagerline the Packers are being bet at a 63% clip, so people are starting to adjust to the two Packer wins. It looks like a classic trap game. I won't even touch it. Atl, SD and Chi are the tease for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I won't even touch it. Atl, SD and Chi are the tease for this week. 822230[/snapback] What's your theory- basically take the three games that are projected to be blowouts, tease the line down 10pts, and take the favorite? Not bad. You said it works for you so stick with it. Isn't sometimes hard not to go the other way? Like if the Bears were favored by 14 on the road, does something ever pull at you to take the home team +24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 What's your theory- basically take the three games that are projected to be blowouts, tease the line down 10pts, and take the favorite? Not bad. You said it works for you so stick with it. Pretty much. I modify slightly based on other things. For example I won't touch the Giants this week (vs. Hou), because I think they are looking past the Texans at the Bears. Isn't sometimes hard not to go the other way? Like if the Bears were favored by 14 on the road, does something ever pull at you to take the home team +24? Depends. Who would they be playing? I'd rather make a not-so-close game a pick em and take the superior team to win rather than hope the score stays low. Also, if a team goes up by 14+ points, the team who is down will start taking stupid chances (see Bills @ Bears) to try and catch up. Then 21-7 becomes 41 -14 real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 Pretty much. I modify slightly based on other things. For example I won't touch the Giants this week (vs. Hou), because I think they are looking past the Texans at the Bears. Depends. Who would they be playing? I'd rather make a not-so-close game a pick em and take the superior team to win rather than hope the score stays low. Also, if a team goes up by 14+ points, the team who is down will start taking stupid chances (see Bills @ Bears) to try and catch up. Then 21-7 becomes 41 -14 real quick. 822305[/snapback] I dig. Might put you on the spot and jump on your three-teamer this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I dig. Might put you on the spot and jump on your three-teamer this weekend! You are welcome to try, but I hold no responsibility for losses. Seriously, I think its good. Based upon the NY Post lines today (not yet adjusted for the SD loss of Merriman), you would end up with... CHI vs. Mia +3.5 Atl +4.5 @ DET SD vs. Cle +2.5 Not too shabby, and your roadie is hedged over a FG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 You are welcome to try, but I hold no responsibility for losses. Seriously, I think its good. Based upon the NY Post lines today (not yet adjusted for the SD loss of Merriman), you would end up with... CHI vs. Mia +3.5 Atl +4.5 @ DET SD vs. Cle +2.5 Not too shabby, and your roadie is hedged over a FG. 822330[/snapback] Yeah, I checked it. Looks solid. And I never dog anyone if their tip doesn't play out! I'm a big boy, I know the risks! I can't imagine the SD line getting thrown by more than a half-point because Merriman is out. They are still that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 I can't imagine the SD line getting thrown by more than a half-point because Merriman is out. They are still that much better. Overall, I could see a scenario where Cle covers the original line w/o Merriman. The SD line is right where it opened, 12.5, hence I think it gets a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaliforniaCheez Posted November 1, 2006 Share Posted November 1, 2006 When Bills have the ball: The Bills have the 28th ranked passing offense(29th overall). The Packers have the worst passing defense(27th overall). One of them will improve but they appear closely matched. When the Packers have the ball: The Packer Offense is 11th in passing, 8th in rushing, 9th overall. The Bills Defense is 14th against the pass, 17th against the rush and 15th overall. Advantage Packers. Kick teams Kick offs Green Bay 8th in kickoffs 6th in touchbacks Buffalo 29 in kickoffs and 29th in touchbacks. Returns allowed GB 9th Buffalo 26th. Returns Buffalo 7th Green Bay 25th. Advantage Green Bay. Punting Green Bay 3rd in gross average, 25th in net ave., last for inside the 20. Buffalo 18th in gross average, 5th in net ave., 8th for punts inside the 20. Returns Packers 14th and Buffalo 17th. Advantage Buffalo The Bills have rested during their bye week and are at home. Intagibles favor the Bills. On paper it looks like a close game. If you are going to bet I would recommend betting the over. The over/under is 40.5 points Bills Offense scores 14.3 a game but the Packer D is weak. Packer Offense scores 21.7 on average but the Bills are 21st in points allowed. Don't bet the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokinandjokin Posted November 2, 2006 Share Posted November 2, 2006 If you are going to bet I would recommend betting the over. The over/under is 40.5 points Bills Offense scores 14.3 a game but the Packer D is weak. Packer Offense scores 21.7 on average but the Bills are 21st in points allowed. Don't bet the spread. 822468[/snapback] I'm not saying you're wrong, I just wouldn't touch it. Betting the Bills to go over is always a risky endeavor- the total has been under in 5 of the 7 games this year. FYI- looks to be low 40's with a rain/snow mix in Buffalo Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted November 2, 2006 Share Posted November 2, 2006 I think that... as long as the Pack doesn't throw any double moves against McGee he'll be OK as long as they don't run any sweeps towards Nate he'll be OK as long as they don't run the ball we'll be able to stop the run I'm actually hopefull of a good offensive showing. We should be able to move, just gotta cash in. Defensively I don't have a clue. They put up big yards on the ground last week, but that was against AZ and they have apparently started their off season program. If they can chew up yards on the ground it will depend on whether Brett can be patient, or if he feels like he has to make himself a BIG part of the game. If he decides that he has to be the story line we have a realistic shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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