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Observations From the Play-by-Play


JDG

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JDG, I think you make some pretty astute observations about what happened in the game even though you didn't see it or hear it. You can tell alot by the play-by-play. I know, for example, I never read any books by Charles Dickens. But I did read the page at the front with all the chapter headings. And I could tell by some of those chapter titles that those pages within them completely sucked. Why read the book? You just don't need to.

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I'm sorry, from now on only people living in WNY or with a satellite dish will be allowed to have respectable opinions on preseason games.....

 

And from now on, production will no longer matter. Instead, we're going to get Simon Cowell, Paula Abdul, and Randy Jackson to judge how QB's *look*, rather than how they play....

 

As an added bonus, from now on, we're not going to keep scores in games either. Instead, victories will be awarded to the team that *looked* the best.....

 

JDG

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Um, maybe it's the fact that he's only started like EIGHT games, and those of us who understand that a QB takes time to develop are focusing more on his growth than his final numbers?

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People keep repeating that like a mantra.... but it seems to me that there are scant few examples of a second-year QB performing as badly as Losman did last year and going on to good things....

 

JDG

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it seems to me that there are scant few examples of a second-year QB performing as badly as Losman did last year and going on to good things....

 

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The first year was a wash. He lost better than half the season to the broken leg. Effectively, last year was his first. Compared with another #1 pick after roughly, the same amount of games started, he is right on par…

 

Year G GS Att Comp Pct Yards YPA Lg TD Int Tkld 20+ 40+ Rate

2004 9 7 197 95 48.2 1043 5.29 58 6 9 13/8 11 4 55.4

 

VS.

 

2005 9 8 228 113 49.6 1340 5.88 58 8 8 26/197 15 6 64.9

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The first year was a wash. He lost better than half the season to the broken leg. Effectively, last year was his first. Compared with another #1 pick after roughly, the same amount of games started, he is right on par…

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Don't buy it. Losman went through a training camp, and even saw some live action during the season as a rookie. He was *not* a rookie last year like Eli Manning was in the stats you cite.

 

If you want, you can compare him to other 1st round QBs that did not play *at all* as rookies, say like Carson Palmer or Chad Pennington, but no dice in comparing him a second-year player to a rookie....

 

JDG

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If you think calling me ignorant is going to hurt my feelings, you really haven't spent much time around here. 

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Why would calling you ignorant hurt your feelings? In this case, it's the truth. You haven't watched the game yet you offer up your opinions of it and the players who played. Did you honestly think people would think your opinons of a game you haven't seen were worth reading? Do YOU (honestly) think your opinions of a game you haven't seen are worth much?

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People keep repeating that like a mantra.... but it seems to me that there are scant few examples of a second-year QB performing as badly as Losman did last year and going on to good things....

 

JDG

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You may be right, but I think Losman clearly deserves more time regardless of past history. I'm not saying we need to make this the Kyle Boller experiment part deux, but he needs more than the handful of games he's started.

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Don't buy it.  Losman went through a training camp, and even saw some live action during the season as a rookie.    He was *not* a rookie last year like Eli Manning was in the stats you cite.       

 

If you want, you can compare him to other 1st round QBs that did not play *at all* as rookies, say like Carson Palmer or Chad Pennington, but no dice in comparing him a second-year player to a rookie....

 

JDG

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Fair enough. I am not asking you to buy anything. Pennington sat two seasons and had an offense around him, Palmer sat one and also had alot more talent around him. Also keep in mind that Palmer and Pennington both had a full training camp and season prior to their first year starting. If you really wanted to bring out the big guns you would have probably said Leftwich or Big Ben who in are abberations of most of the first round QBs this decade.

 

If you don't want to compare a second year player, who gets the start on an absolutely crappy team with bad coach, to a rookie who got a start with a better team and a coach that let him play through the problems, that is fine. I guess by that math you assume JP should do better in his first eight starts. Well he did. Not by much, but he did.

 

I don't have any false illusions that he is the next great savior but it is too soon to tell. If you look back at some of the most successful quarterbacks in history you are not likely to find anything but hall of famers who were great right out of the gate, without a few years development. The quarterbacks who have been most "successful" were on teams that chose to sit them for a full year or two so they could mature and/or who had good coaching staffs. For instance, Vick, Pennington, Palmer, Hassleback, Mcnair, Farvre. All of whom were on much better teams the year they became full time starters.

 

You may be right on Losman but the jury is still out. If you think that Holcomb or anyone else who is likely to become available, could get us to the playoffs this year, then I would say fine go for it. As there is noone the Bills have, that is any better and we are highly unlikely to make he playoffs this year, there is nothing to lose by giving the kid a full season as a starter. We either determine he is the QB of the future or he is not. If not, we pick up a decent FA QB and draft a QB to groom under him, as was done with McNair and O'donnell or Chandler & Vick. On the other hand if it clicks, the game starts slowing down for him, and Losman gets rid of the jitters there is legitimate hope for a good playoff tun next year.

 

Want proof? Here are the stats for all of the playoff quartrbacks first year as starters with the career year they started full time.

 

Year Team G GS Att Comp Pct Yards YPA Lg TD Int Tkld 20+ 40+ Rate

 

2004 Palmer 13 13 432 263 60.9 2897 6.71 76 18 18 25/178 34 8 77.3 Starter in 2nd yr.

2005 Big Ben 12 12 268 168 62.7 2385 8.90 85 17 9 23/129 35 12 98.6 1st year starter

2001 Brady 15 14 413 264 63.9 2843 6.88 91 18 12 41/216 32 6 86.5 Starter in 2nd yr.

1998 Indianapolis Colts 16 16 575 326 56.7 3739 6.50 78 26 28 22/109 42 8 71.2 1st yr starter.

2001 M. Hasselback 13 12 321 176 54.8 2023 6.30 64 7 8 38/251 26 4 70.9 - Starter in 3rd yr.

2003 Delhomme 16 15 449 266 59.2 3219 7.17 67 19 16 23/168 46 9 80.6 - Starter in 5th yr.

1998 jake Plummer 16 16 547 324 59.2 3737 6.83 57 17 20 49/280 48 6 75.0 Fulltime in 2nd yr.

1995 Brunell 13 10 346 201 58.1 2168 6.27 45 15 7 39/238 23 1 82.6 Starter in 3rd yr.

2003 Leftwich 15 13 418 239 57.2 2819 6.74 84 14 16 19/90 33 7 73.0 1st yr starter.

1999 Kitna 15 15 495 270 54.5 3346 6.76 51 23 16 32/198 45 5 77. Fulltime in 3rd yr.

2005 Sims 11 10 313 191 61.0 2035 6.50 78 10 7 29/205 21 3 81.4 - Fulltime in 3rd yr.

2005 Eli 16 16 557 294 52.8 3762 6.75 78 24 17 28/184 49 8 75.9 Fulltime in 2nd yr.

 

Man, after doing all that research I have even more hope! Thanks for helping me keep the glass half full.

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it seems to me that there are scant few examples of a second-year QB performing as badly as Losman did last year and going on to good things....

 

JDG

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BTW - If you actually do the research, you will find you have to revise your statement significantly. I'll understand if you don't, there might be too much truthiness to handle.

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Watched the game on Tivo, and since I already knew what happened I watched interesting plays several times looking at them closer (can't do real game tape analysis with a TV broadcast, but I was trying).

 

I think JP made excellent reads all the way around. He through a 3rd and 7 incomplete that looks just like an incomplete, but he scrambled out of a sack, and threw a perfect ball on the sideline that could be either a completion by our guy or out of bounds. The DB made a great play, but I was very impressed with on the run putting a ball where it was catchable for the receiver (Price) if not broken up, but a DB had no chance for an interception, only breaking it up.

 

Also worth noting that after his slow start he completed a lot of passes. I'm not worrying about the quality of the D, etc, because I'm looking at this on his accuracy. He made some bad throws, especially early, but also had a drop among his 9 incompletions.

 

Also, another incompletion that he got some flack for was when the WR got separation beyond the DB on the left sideline deep and he missed the throw long and out of bounds. It is worth noting that as he stepped up his jersey was grabbed (so he was under pressure), and the ball he threw was from the Buffalo 41 to the Carolina 5, so 54 yards in the air. It is nice to throw accurate 54 yard bombs under pressure, but missing it was not like when he missed an open Moulds last year against Carolina in the closing minutes.

 

Additionally he had three completions at least called back for penalties.

 

I think his reads were consistenty good, even when he didn't throw the ball well. I'm very excited to see him next week as the starter against Cincinnati with Evans and McGahee working with him.

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- John DiGiorgio was the first-string long-snapper in this game, playing three quarters.  Ladies and gentlemen, it looks like this undrafted free agent has

a roster spot for him to lose.

 

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Actually he and Schneck share number 54. They did that with several numbers last night - Ricard and Rob Lee both wore 39. There are also 2 #72s. I was surprised they could do that in a game - it caused quite a bit of confusion.

 

I didn't read the whole thread so if someone already pointed this out... sorry. ;)

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People keep repeating that like a mantra.... but it seems to me that there are scant few examples of a second-year QB performing as badly as Losman did last year and going on to good things....

 

JDG

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Hey JDG - not only did I listen to the game but I was there! I forget how much Jim Kelly tore up the league his first year. Oh what about a guy named John Elway? Do you remember his rookie season? He was horrible! They wanted to run him out of Denver.

 

Don't believe me, check out his stats.

| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| 1983 den | 11 | 123 259 47.5 1663 6.4 7 14 | 28 146 1

 

Here is your buddy JP Losman

 

Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |

+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+

| 2004 buf | 4 | 3 5 60.0 32 6.4 0 1 | 2 15 0 |

| 2005 buf | 9 | 113 228 49.6 1340 5.9 8 8 | 31 154 0 |

 

Last I checked John Elway won TWO Superbowls and is a lock for the hall of fame.

 

There is your scant example.

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Actually he and Schneck share number 54.  They did that with several numbers last night - Ricard and Rob Lee both wore 39.  There are also 2 #72s.  I was surprised they could do that in a game - it caused quite a bit of confusion.

 

I didn't read the whole thread so if someone already pointed this out... sorry.  ;)

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Nope, Jay, you were the first to call it -- and the play-by-play is wrong. I just re-racked the Tivo, and that was indeed Schneck on the field.

 

As for Moorman's performance, I know at least one person who wasn't pleased -- Brian. He walked off the field shaking his head quite often last night.

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BTW - If you actually do the research, you will find you have to revise your statement significantly. I'll understand if you don't, there might be too much truthiness to handle.

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Feel free to name them at any time - I'd be interested to see it....

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Actually he and Schneck share number 54.  They did that with several numbers last night - Ricard and Rob Lee both wore 39.  There are also 2 #72s.  I was surprised they could do that in a game - it caused quite a bit of confusion.

 

I didn't read the whole thread so if someone already pointed this out... sorry.  ;)

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Thanks!

 

JDG

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People keep repeating that like a mantra.... but it seems to me that there are scant few examples of a second-year QB performing as badly as Losman did last year and going on to good things....

 

JDG

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Oh what about a guy named John Elway? Do you remember his rookie season?

 

There is your scant example.

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Second year.... Rookie season.....

 

Hmmmmm......

 

JDG

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Nope, Jay, you were the first to call it -- and the play-by-play is wrong. I just re-racked the Tivo, and that was indeed Schneck on the field.

 

As for Moorman's performance, I know at least one person who wasn't pleased -- Brian. He walked off the field shaking his head quite often last night.

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Actually, Nicolas Setta kind of impressed me. His kickoffs were deep and his punting didn't suck either.

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Second year....  Rookie season.....

 

Hmmmmm......

 

JDG

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You are aware that JP missed most of training camp his rookie year and consequently didn't get many reps in practice that entire year. Sure he had the classroom time but that isn't a substitution for actual playing time.

 

It's like expecting someone who just got his/her masters degree to come in and run a buisness smoothly. It's just not going to happen, classroom time is nice but it's no substitution for experience.

 

You might not think so but comparing JP's second year with most QB's rookie year isn't a far fetched idea.

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In this case, it's the truth.  You haven't watched the game yet you offer up your opinions of it and the players who played.  Did you honestly think people would think your opinons of a game you haven't seen were worth reading?  Do YOU (honestly) think your opinions of a game you haven't seen are worth much?

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Given that people who watched the game apparently think that JP Losman played like Johnny Unitas, it may be that not watching the game is actually an advantage to level-headed thinking. ;-)

 

I think it contributes to the discussion by observing things like playing time, substitutions, and statistical production. Of course, its hardly the final word, but I don't think it is worthless either.

 

JDG

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As for Moorman's performance, I know at least one person who wasn't pleased -- Brian. He walked off the field shaking his head quite often last night.

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My fuzzy memory recalls that Aiken (in the eye) inexplicably stepped up to block the line, leaving the rusher an open lane to Moorman.

 

----

 

What the NFL play by play won't also highlight is why a play worked and why it didn't. I thought that JP made a lot of mistakes, but he was also settling into a very nice groove. I think he looked much better than he did last year, and it will be interesting to see how he leads a team when there's no question about him being the starter.

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