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Housing Bubble


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Where, Williamsburgh? Much of Brooklyn (although it too is improving) is still a horror show. Manhattan gets better as we speak (if you are young and have education/cash).

 

I will always prefer the borough of Queens to Brooklyn.

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Williamsburg, or the area that's merging Cobble Hill with the Slope. Haven't seen what's up in Greenpoint lately, though. You could also get a nice deal in Bushwick or East NY :P

 

Queens is a good option, but it never had the cool vibe or the nightlife that Brooklyn has.

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The people who will be hurt most by the real estate bubble bursting are:

 

1. Speculators - Definition of speculate: To engage in the buying or selling of a commodity with an element of risk on the chance of profit. They took a risk in order to make a profit. Although many thought real estate was a sure thing, it can bite you in the ass.

 

2. Buyers using ARM's, interest-only mortgages - Again, people took a big risk regarding the direction of interest rates and the direction of housing prices.

 

3. Banks who made mortgage loans to risky borrowers who had little or no down payment.

 

Each of these groups took on above-average risk in order to make an above average return. Some times it works out, some times it doesn't.

 

Most of the carnage will be in the places where prices skyrocketed the most: Florida, California, Las Vegas, etc.

 

I don't think that we'll see any fallout in places like WNY where prices have not moved much at all and housing is still very affordable.

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What disturbs me about the housing bubble in the first place is the following:

- The increase in housing prices made it harder for people to build equity in their homes, and made it very difficult to get out from under mortgage debt.

- Increases in housing prices were largely caused by interest-only loans. Like SUVs, interest-only loans are an artifical means of increasing people's spending, and therefore decreasing their wealth.

 

Due to the ill effects the housing bubble created, a return to more normal prices would help in the long run. Moreover, the interest-only loans largely responsible for creating this bubble need to go.

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What disturbs me about the housing bubble in the first place is the following:

- The increase in housing prices made it harder for people to build equity in their homes,

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Only for those who got in late. For those of us who bought three or more years ago (depending on geography of course) built plenty of equity. And we will be able to withstand a sizable correction and still have some nice equitly left over to be leveraged to pick up the pieces if the bubble does in fact burst.

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