Peter Posted September 22, 2004 Share Posted September 22, 2004 Latest Zogby Poll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted September 22, 2004 Share Posted September 22, 2004 I think those results are from Zogby's Interactive on-line poll - which IIRC, can be repeatedly replied to by the same individual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkFast Posted September 22, 2004 Share Posted September 22, 2004 The most comical aspect about this season is how quickly people trot out polls when they say their guy is ahead and pooh pooh them the SECOND a poll comes out that says the other guy is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnTheRocks Posted September 22, 2004 Share Posted September 22, 2004 The most comical aspect about this season is how quickly people trot out polls when they say their guy is ahead and pooh pooh them the SECOND a poll comes out that says the other guy is. 41009[/snapback] Exactly! polls schmolls. Oye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted September 22, 2004 Author Share Posted September 22, 2004 It is amazing how these polls have gone this election season. I have no idea which ones to trust -- if any. I guess the most important poll is the one that will be taken on the first Tuesday in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted September 22, 2004 Share Posted September 22, 2004 Earlier this year, one of the Saudi princes referred to our elections as "your tribal warfare season". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Posted September 22, 2004 Author Share Posted September 22, 2004 Earlier this year, one of the Saudi princes referred to our elections as "your tribal warfare season". 41291[/snapback] Funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickey Posted September 22, 2004 Share Posted September 22, 2004 I heard a high muckety-muck (its a technical term) on NPR this morning talking about why you have these variations that seem so contradictory and as he explained it, you easily get varying results based on the polling method. The "likely voter" designation is pretty key. They ask the respondent a number of questions and based on the results and their own subjective criteria, they designate that person as a "likely voter" or simply a "registered voter". That determines whether that person's opinions are reflected in the "likely voter" poll or not. If you ask a series of questions on something that isn't going so well, Iraq perhaps, and then at the end of that series ask if they disapprove of the job the President is doing you will more likely get a negative response. The opposite result is achieved if you instead ask a series on something that is going well and then ask the general question on the President's performance. The likely voter thing is an important variable that I think is where a lot of polls may end up with egg on their faces. Most formulas are based on that voter's prior voting history. Many people lie on that one, saying they voted when they didn't. Further, there are reasons to suggest that turnout may be much higher this year than in years past, especially in Florida. For example, people living abroad have applied for absentee ballots in record numbers this year (As of July 9, 2004, 340,000 Federal Post Card Applications for absentee ballots were sent in response to requests from voters abroad. That's 90,000 more than the number of requests for the entire 2000 presidential election.) If people living overseas that usually haven't voted are suddenly interesting in doing so, isn't that an indication that others who usually don't vote might do so this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted September 22, 2004 Share Posted September 22, 2004 For example, people living abroad have applied for absentee ballots in record numbers this year (As of July 9, 2004, 340,000 Federal Post Card Applications for absentee ballots were sent in response to requests from voters abroad. That's 90,000 more than the number of requests for the entire 2000 presidential election.) If people living overseas that usually haven't voted are suddenly interesting in doing so, isn't that an indication that others who usually don't vote might do so this year? 41512[/snapback] I don't know what it means. We had a Primary election not too long ago and they stated there were more absentee ballots mailed than ever before. Election turnout was about 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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