Predicting the final draft order

[Mikie2times]

Including Buffalo 11 teams in the NFL are 4-8 or worse, and as this night mere of a season wears down some of us tend to think draft more and more. The following is a look at the future schedules of the teams 4-8 or worse, the current SOS which is used to break up ties, and the predicted final record. Next to the strength of schedule % is also the words, higher, lower or same, this is just indicating if the SOS will be on the rise or fall from its current number by seasons end. I can't tell what the exact number will be without doing some serious work, but we can get a pretty close idea by comparing the team’s schedules.

 

I took a lot of things into account for the predictions, so if you feel they might be off feel free to ask why I made that prediction.

 

Current Draft Order

 

1. Houston 1-11 (@Tennessee, Arizona, Jacksonville, @ San Francisco)

Current SOS: .604 Lower

Predicted 2-14

 

2. Green Bay 2-10 (DET, @BALT, CHI, SEA)

Current SOS: .549 Same

Predicted 4-12

 

3. San Francisco 2-10 (@SEA, @JACK, @STL, HOU)

Current SOS: .563 Same

Predicted: 3-13

 

4. N.Y. Jets 2-10 (OAK, @MIA, NE, BUF)

Current SOS: .563 Lower

Predicted: 4-12

 

5. New Orleans 3-9 (@ATL, ,CAR, DET, @TB)

Current SOS: .507 Higher

Predicted: 4-12

 

 

6. Tennessee 3-9 (HOU, SEA, @MIA, @ JACKSONVILLE)

Current SOS: .507 Same

Predicted: 4-12

 

7. Buffalo 4-8 (NE, DEN, @CIN, @NYJ)

Current SOS: .465 Higher

Predicted: 4-12

 

8. Cleveland 4-8 (@CIN, @OAK, PITT, BALT)

Current SOS: .500 Same

Predicted: 5-11

 

9. Baltimore 4-8 (@DEN, GB, MIN, @CLE)

Current SOS: .528 Lower

Predicted: 6-10

 

10. Arizona 4-8 (WASH, @HOU, PHIL, @IND)

Current SOS: .514 Lower

Predicted: 6-10

 

11. Detroit 4-8 (@GB, CIN, @NO, @PITT)

Current SOS: .535 Same

Predicted: 4-12

 

12. Oakland 4-8 (@NYJ, CLE, @DEN, NYG)

Current SOS: .542

Predicted: 5-11

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Predicted Final Draft Order only taking into account teams on the previous list

1. Houston--- 2-14

2. SF--------- 3-13

3. BUF------- 4-12

4. TEN-------- 4-12

5. NO--------- 4-12

6. DET-------- 4-12

7. NYJ---------4-12

8. GB--------- 4-12

9. CLE-------- 5-11

10. OAK------- 5-11

11. ARI--------6-10

12. BALT-------6-10

[Bflojohn]

Great minds think alike as I, too, tried to predict order of finish! Mine is slightly different.....

 

1.) Houston loses @ Tenn, Ariz, Jax, and wins @S.F. 2-14

2.) New York Jets loses Oak, @ Mia, N.E., and win Buf 3-13

3.) S.F. loses @ Seat, @ Jax, @ St.L., and Hous. 2-14

4.) Green Bay wins Det, loses @ Balt, Chic, Seat 3-13

5.) Tenn. win Hous, loses Seat., @Mia, @Jax 4-12

6.) New Orleans loses @ Atla., Caro., wins Det, Loss @ T.B. 4-12

7.) Ariz loss Wash., wins @ Hous., Philly, Loss @ Indy 6-10

8.) Buffalo loses out! 4-12

 

Therefore the final ranking for drafting:

1.) Houston

2.) San Francisco

3.) New York

4.) Green Bay

5.) Tennessee

6.) New Orleans

7.) Buffalo (lucky 7!!!)

My player predictions are thus:

Houston- Reggie Bush

San Francisco- Mario Williams (Trade likely for Lienart)

New York- Matt Lienart, Vince Young IF S.F. trades!

Green Bay- A.J. Hawk

Tennessee- D'Brickashaw Ferguson

New Orleans- Chad Greenway

Buffalo- Mathius Kiwanuka

[Pete]

Nice post Mike! You are becoming one of my favorite posters- thanks for all the work!

[Bflojohn]

Actually, I just found the strength of schedule and on all likelihood we will pick 5th in the first round! If Tennessee and New Orleans manage one more victory than the Bills, that is the draft position we'd be looking at in April. WOW! Revised edition!

Houston- Bush

San Francisco- Williams

New York- Lienart

Green Bay- A.J. Hawk

Buffalo- Ferguson

[BillsObserver]

Nice post. I can't see the NY Jets winning one more game this season. 2 words. Brooks Bollinger.

 

I also don't believe we'll lose every game. We will likely win 1 of the 4, with the NY Jets game being the most realistic. This week's game is going to be the Bills' super bowl. MM knows his job is on the line, as does TD. I don't think we'll win but we'll battle. Weather may be a factor in our last home games too.

 

I know this team comes off as a big joke most of the time but we had 3 games that could've went the other way if we had a real coach (See vs NE, CAR, MIA). We even managed to beat KC. I know they aren't the best team in the AFC but they did just beat the Broncos. Not trying to be the guy who always defends the Bills because I think we need help badly but you never know what you'll get with this team. There's got to be at least ONE game out of the last 4 that we win.

[Mikie2times]

Nice post Mike!  You are becoming one of my favorite posters- thanks for all the work!

523000[/snapback]

 

Thanks Pete

 

Let me also add that some people have said the Jets/Bills game could have a huge impact on the draft order, and yes that theory would make sense.

 

Is it a huge stretch for the Bills to get beat by NE, DEN, and CIN? I just don't think it is, and if the Jets win one out of OAK, @MIA, or NE we could be looking at the Bills/Jets loser being as high as 3, while the winner could drop to 10th or worse.

[Mikie2times]

Nice post. I can't see the NY Jets winning one more game this season. 2 words. Brooks Bollinger.

 

I also don't believe we'll lose every game. We will likely win 1 of the 4, with the NY Jets game being the most realistic. This week's game is going to be the Bills' super bowl. MM knows his job is on the line, as does TD. I don't think we'll win but we'll battle. Weather may be a factor in our last home games too.

 

I know this team comes off as a big joke most of the time but we had 3 games that could've went the other way if we had a real coach (See vs NE, CAR, MIA). We even managed to beat KC. I know they aren't the best team in the AFC but they did just beat the Broncos. Not trying to be the guy who always defends the Bills because I think we need help badly but you never know what you'll get with this team. There's got to be at least ONE game out of the last 4 that we win.

523015[/snapback]

 

 

The Jets were a team I went out on a limb with but even with Bollinger I can still see them winning 2 more. I don't expect Oakland to be that motivated this weekend, and that’s how upsets happen when you got an away favorite. Then you have them going on the road to Miami, and Miami's play has been up and down all season. Rosenfield may have lit us up but he was horrible in his first start in Cleveland, and it's unlikely his success against us carries over.

 

I agree that the Jets game should be the one we have the best shot in, but with two teams out of contention it probably comes down to who wants it more. I see the Bills losing the next three as a real possibility, and it potentially being Herms last game as Jets coach. If those two things end up playing out it would be hard to imagine the Bills bringing the same intensity as the Jets, especially on the road.

[Tortured Soul]

I think a reason to expect the Bills to beat the Jets is that JP is playing to get better every week. Brooks knows he won't be back at QB and won't have much to play for. I just don't think the Bills lose out.

 

Also, I said in a different thread on this topic, I don't see Green Bay winning two more. You can make a case for this week and next, but do you really think Favre won't throw one of those away?

 

When I was trying to figure this out at work today, I came up with the Bills drafting 8th if they go 5-11 and 11th if they go 6-10. What do you think of those cases, Kzoo?

[Mikie2times]

I think a reason to expect the Bills to beat the Jets is that JP is playing to get better every week.  Brooks knows he won't be back at QB and won't have much to play for.  I just don't think the Bills lose out.

 

Also, I said in a different thread on this topic, I don't see Green Bay winning two more.  You can make a case for this week and next, but do you really think Favre won't throw one of those away?

 

When I was trying to figure this out at work today, I came up with the Bills drafting 8th if they go 5-11 and 11th if they go 6-10.  What do you think of those cases, Kzoo?

523082[/snapback]

 

The Bills are a 4-8 team that seems to be coming apart at the seems right now, and despite the struggles they have still played an easy enough schedule to own the draft tiebreakers over the current top 20 picks.

 

A couple weeks ago I tried to convince myself that home field will really make a difference for the Broncos, but how on earth do we stop the run? Then we have to play @CIN with Pittsburgh nipping at their heals, that smells like the SD massacre all over again. If this team still had something to play for I would give them a much better chance against NE this weekend, but I just don't see a huge response coming. We didn’t always see the Bills best effort in big games, so I’m just not all that confident they will come to play with only pride at stake.

 

As for your records and scenarios I have it being pretty close to that, here is a rough estimate of our likely draft position with different records. Keep in mind we should win all tiebreakers which could make the difference of several spots if things get log jammed.

 

4-12 Best Case #3, Worst Case #5-----------0 Wins

5-11 Best Case #8, Worst Case #10----------1 Win

6-10 Best Case #11, Worst Case #13---------2 Wins

[booya2]

Anyone named D'Brickashaw can darn sure play on my team!