Run or Pass?

[finknottle]

In another thread, I argued that if you establish an effective passing attack in the first half, then even if you are behind you can run effectively in the second, since they still have to play the pass. On the other hand, if you run effectively in the first half but still fall behind, it doesn't help because they'll still defend pass first.

 

In other words, I would argue that the winning strategy is pass first well, and then watch the running yards later in the game; to which the following was offered:

 

History makes a far better argument for the opposite. While we've had a contemporary champion in the Rams who used the pass to set up the rest of their offense, it's difficult to point to one other non-West Coast O champion who didn't use a running offense and line to set up their passing games.

463751[/snapback]

 

So I took all the teams with winning records and looked at the ratio of yards through the air to the ground:

 

4.33 3.55 2.19 1.77 Bengals 4-0

2.26 2.66 1.52 2.11 Colts 4-0

2.34 2.89 3.55 .22 Bucs 4-0

.40 .86 14.10 47.25 Redskins 3-0

1.35 3.58 1.29 2.38 Broncos 3-1

3.93 2.77 3.14 2.17 Giants 3-1

21.93 2.19 5.95 38.78 Eagles 3-1

1.93 .52 .99 .46 Falcons 3-1

5.78 6.82 1.76 1.73 Dolphins 3-1

4.57 2.09 .86 2.30 Steelers 3-1

----------------------

2.49 .77 .95 .89 Bills 1-3

 

To me these numbers - or more particularly, their trends - argue that the winning teams now play pass first to set up a closing running game rather than run first to set up the pass. The anomoly here is the Redskins, which are playing run-first, and poorly, relying on big 4th quarter passing to come back.

[DeeRay]

Either one... it makes no difference. It is not a complicated game. He who controls the line of scrimmage controls the game (provided you don't turn the ball over... which, of course goes without saying).

 

Obviously to play on the line you must have the size and some degree of athleticism. You must also have a mentality, and from there develop a synergy/chemistry. Pick 5 guys that have the attiitude and the will to get the job done. 5 guys that take pride in their craft enough to live in the film room, the weight room, and love to practice as well as play on Sunday. Add a position coach that knows something and one who his linemen hate to disappoint and this combination wins championships.

[Chef Jim]

Typically the run sets up the pass but I remember Kelly saying that with that edition of the bills the pass set up the run with thermal. I worked like a charm. The pass set up the run set up the pass set up the run set up 35 pts. per game.

[BillsFanM.D.]

So I took all the teams with winning records and looked at the ratio of yards through the air to the ground:

 

  4.33  3.55    2.19    1.77  Bengals  4-0

  2.26  2.66    1.52    2.11  Colts  4-0

  2.34  2.89    3.55      .22  Bucs  4-0

    .40    .86  14.10  47.25  Redskins  3-0

  1.35  3.58    1.29    2.38  Broncos  3-1

  3.93  2.77    3.14    2.17  Giants  3-1

21.93  2.19    5.95  38.78  Eagles  3-1

  1.93    .52      .99      .46  Falcons  3-1

  5.78  6.82    1.76    1.73  Dolphins  3-1

  4.57  2.09      .86    2.30  Steelers  3-1

----------------------

  2.49    .77      .95      .89  Bills  1-3

 

463948[/snapback]

I think a more accurate assesment would be to look at total number of running plays versus passing plays.....the passing yards are almost always going to average more than the running yards. Check % of running plays versus passing plays....not ratio of yards. For example, if a team (starting at their 20) picks up forty yards rushing on 10 plays and then hits a 40 yard TD pass the yardage is equal. The run, in this case, clearly set up the home run pass.

[BuffOrange]

Yeah, it doesn't really matter and in a perfect world you'd like to have balance, but 2 points:

A) I do believe in Jaworski's "points come out of the passing game" motto.

B) I thought Deirdorf of all people made a great point during the Jets game yesterday: It's a lot easier for a team that doesn't run well to throw successfully, than it is for a team that doesn't throw well to run successfully.

 

Running to set up the pass is fine as a general theory is fine, but I'm not sure how this pertains to the Bills because right now our passing game isn't even competent enough to play off of the run, as we've seen in the last 2 games.

 

AKC's comment is kinda meaningless to be honest, because it's like saying "other than the Pistons, not many NBA teams have won a championship without Jordan, Duncan, or Shaq on their team lately".

If you back say 12 years, the 49ers, Packers, and Bucs were all WCO teams. The Patriots were a non-WCO throw-first team in addition to the Rams. The Cowboys & Broncos had awesome balance, though for the sake of argument and stuborness I'm sure many will insist they were primarily rushing teams - which they may have been - but their ratios were close and neither team relied as heavily on the run as the Rams or Pats did on the pass. The Ravens were obviously a ground team, though their offense had little to do with their championship.

[AKC]

 

In other words,  I would argue that the winning strategy is pass first well,  and then watch the running yards later in the game;  to which the following was offered:

So I took all the teams with winning records and looked at the ratio of yards through the air to the ground:

 

To me these numbers - or more particularly, their trends - argue that the winning teams now play pass first to set up a closing running game rather than run first to set up the pass.  The anomoly here is the Redskins, which are playing run-first, and poorly, relying on big 4th quarter passing to come back.

463948[/snapback]

 

I'd say your basic premise begins with a flaw in the comparison, that being that yardage in the air would have to be weighted equally to yardage gained rushing if we consider the number of passes to the number of rushes. The ratio here is actually about 3:1. You might want to try using yards per attempt but it still is an imperfect comparison.

 

Also you acknowledge that better teams pass less in the end of the game; of course- there's no reason to pass with a lead, the clock ticking and a defense reeling against your running attack! The disparity you show is simply the historical difference in yardage between a rushing attempt and a completed pass and the resultant effect of an effective running game on the necessity to pass.

 

I'd say your stats actually suggest that passing the ball is by far the less desirable thing for winning teams, and hence why winning teams aren't passing the ball in the 4th quarter.

[obie_wan]

In another thread, I argued that if you establish an effective passing attack in the first half, then even if you are behind you can run effectively in the second, since they still have to play the pass.  On the other hand, if you run effectively in the first half but still fall behind,  it doesn't help because they'll still defend pass first.

 

In other words,  I would argue that the winning strategy is pass first well,  and then watch the running yards later in the game;  to which the following was offered:

So I took all the teams with winning records and looked at the ratio of yards through the air to the ground:

 

  4.33  3.55    2.19    1.77  Bengals  4-0

  2.26  2.66    1.52    2.11  Colts  4-0

  2.34  2.89    3.55      .22  Bucs  4-0

    .40    .86  14.10  47.25  Redskins  3-0

  1.35  3.58    1.29    2.38  Broncos  3-1

  3.93  2.77    3.14    2.17  Giants  3-1

21.93  2.19    5.95  38.78  Eagles  3-1

  1.93    .52      .99      .46  Falcons  3-1

  5.78  6.82    1.76    1.73  Dolphins  3-1

  4.57  2.09      .86    2.30  Steelers  3-1

----------------------

  2.49    .77      .95      .89  Bills  1-3

 

To me these numbers - or more particularly, their trends - argue that the winning teams now play pass first to set up a closing running game rather than run first to set up the pass.  The anomoly here is the Redskins, which are playing run-first, and poorly, relying on big 4th quarter passing to come back.

463948[/snapback]

 

 

 

You must run to win, but you pass to score.

 

Look at the roadmap followed by the great 49er teams who typically scored alot early by passing and then dictated the tempo for the rest of the game

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Dolphins are 2-1 and soon to be 2-2, pal.

[todd]

I don't think it's that simple. You've got to play to your player's strengths. We have a weak TE corps, and young RBs who can't pass-block. We also have a 1st time starter at QB. That tells me you run, run, run.

 

There's also fewer turnovers in the run game, IMHO. So in this case, you run. Give me another team with different players, the answer would be different.

 

Either one... it makes no difference.  It is not a complicated game.  He who controls the line of scrimmage controls the game (provided you don't turn the ball over... which, of course goes without saying).

 

Obviously to play on the line you must have the size and some degree of athleticism. You must also have a mentality, and from there develop a synergy/chemistry.  Pick 5 guys that have the attiitude and the will to get the job done.  5 guys that take pride in their craft enough to live in the film room, the weight room,  and love to practice as well as play on Sunday.  Add a position coach that knows something and one who his linemen hate to disappoint and this combination wins championships.

463982[/snapback]

[CentralVaBills]

Either one... it makes no difference.  It is not a complicated game.  He who controls the line of scrimmage controls the game (provided you don't turn the ball over... which, of course goes without saying).

 

Obviously to play on the line you must have the size and some degree of athleticism. You must also have a mentality, and from there develop a synergy/chemistry.  Pick 5 guys that have the attiitude and the will to get the job done.  5 guys that take pride in their craft enough to live in the film room, the weight room,  and love to practice as well as play on Sunday.  Add a position coach that knows something and one who his linemen hate to disappoint and this combination wins championships.

463982[/snapback]

AMEN. Thank You Dee Ray.

 

People make football way more complicated than it actually is. If you are beating someone's ass, you keep going back to it until they stop it. It doesn't matter if it's run or pass. Usually the guys up front dictate if you can do that or not.

 

I was coaching in a game last year. Our offensive coordinator was a 66 yr old teacher who I thought was going to be awful. We ended up getting along great. I actually loved coaching with him. I was the D coordinator, so I was worried about his play calling, as I'm sure he was worried about my aggressive style.

 

So, we're playing this team.....and our QB calls timeout, and comes over to the sidelines confused and tells the old coach that we should pass the ball. LOL, big mistake. We were pounding this team running it down their throat. So, coach says get your ass back in there and run the same play to the right, and then to left and keep repeating that until I tell you to stop or I'll get a freshman who doesn't want to make this harder than it has to be. LOL. I about died laughing.

 

We won the game 42-6 and ran only 5 different plays all night. 1 of those was a pass play. I think we ran something like 71 offensive plays and 59 of them were 35 and 36 powers out of a wing T. LOL. Sometimes, when you find a weakness, you keep pounding it until someone proves they can stop it.

 

Didn't Jimmy Johnson and the Cowboys only have like 8 different running plays with straight ahead blocking? If I'm not mistaken, I also believe Marv's Bills only had a limited number of plays that the Bills were VERY good at. So, after last week's first drive, why did Willis not see the ball 35 times that game? That's what makes me sick.

 

Pass or Run....who cares. Do what is working and then adjust from there. And what is working usually starts up front, and there was no reason to think after last weeks first drive that we couldn't have done that all day. However, we never got to find out.