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Hits and Misses: How Successful Was GM Russ Brandon In The Draft?...REVISED


BuffaloRush

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39 minutes ago, billsfanmiami(oh) said:

 

 

Just because he wasn’t in a nursing home doesn’t mean he wasn’t difficult to deal with. Hell, I’d say it’s fairly well documented he wasn’t easy to deal with in his “prime”. All I’m saying, is that I could very easily see it being a tricky, complex situation with Brandon trying his best to steer the ship, as Kirby has indicated. 

Wilson trusted Brandon so much he not only made him CEO right after the team hired Buddy Nix as GM in 2010.  Brandon was also named team president on Jan 1st, 2013 giving the man full control over the franchise. He could have hired whomever he wanted at that point and yet things remained the same. 

 

Brandon has been actively involved in the football side of operations since Marv retired and was in those cut room meetings as recently with Rex Ryan as head coach.It was noted by Tim Graham that Russ was in the film room breaking down film with scouts. At the combine where he meets with agents about player contracts, in the draft room.   It's my opinion that Brandon has a hand in every coach, GM hires since Marv left. Had the team hired a real NFL GM I highly doubt that the marketing guy is on the phone to players in cut room meetings or in the film room. 

 

Like I said, I'm just grateful that real football people are now running the football side and the result was a playoff appearance. 

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On 2/21/2018 at 2:45 PM, BuffaloRush said:

 

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We will continue to take a look at the past General Managers in Buffalo and who was the most successful with the draft based on hits and misses.   Today it's time to see how Russ  Brandon did.  If you recall Brandon was named "General Manager" after former GM Marv Levy quietly stepped aside.  It is believed that while Brandon was involved in many football decision, the majority of GM duties (including the draft) fell to the competent trio of Tom Modrak (Draft), John Guy (Pro) and Richard "Dick" Jauron (A Bit of Everything).

 

Here's the criteria I shared for defining a "hit" and a "miss"

While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status.  As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick.  A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status.  If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss.  

 

Like many of my polls, I think this will be very debated.   Let's see how Russ did in two NFL Drafts

 

Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
2008 1 Leodis McKelvin 11 DB 2016 0 0 4 29 111                       15   Troy
2008 2 James Hardy 41 WR 2009 0 0 0 1 16                 10 96 2     Indiana
2008 3 Chris Ellis 72 DE 2010 0 0 0 2 15                         1.0 Virginia Tech
2008 4 Reggie Corner 114 DB 2011 0 0 0 8 55                       2 1.0 Akron
2008 4 Derek Fine 132 TE 2009 0 0 0 2 18                 19 158 1     Kansas
2008 5 Alvin Bowen 147 LB 2010 0 0 0 0 2                           Iowa St.
2008 6 Xavier Omon 179 RB 2009 0 0 0 0 7           11 27 0 0 0 0     NW Missouri St.
2008 7 Demetress Bell 219 T 2012 0 0 2 15 40                           NW State (LA)
2008 7 Steve Johnson 224 WR 2015 0 0 5 33 99           2 16 0 381 4764 34     Kentucky
2008 7 Kennard Cox 251 DB 2014 0 0 0 2 29                         0.5 Pittsburgh

 

2008 Draft = 2 Hits/8 Misses = Success Rate of 20%

 

 

This was an unsuccessful draft in oh...so many ways.

 

MISSES

leo-pup.jpg

Yes Leodis McKelvin was a "miss."  You can say that was an an "average NFL starter," but you NOT draft an "average NFL starter" with the 11th pick in the first round.  I am sorry but Leodis never lived up to his draft status this was a miss.  Speaking of miss - one of the most spectacular 2nd round busts in Bills history was James Hardy.  This was an ill-advised pick based on a player's physical size which never materialized.  The rest of the guy are non-factors...just a terrible brutal draft.

 

HITS

Old Russ did the 7th round right.  First, I will give Demetrius Bell a very very very marginal thumbs up.  He essentially was a 3 year starter for the Bills as a 7th round pick.  I will call him a slightly "average NFL starter" which is good for a 7th round pick (not the 11th pick in the 1st round).

033012-Demetrius-Bell-400.jpg

 

 

Then there is Stevie Johnson.  Say what you will, but Russ Brandon made arguably one of the greatest draft picks in Bills history.  

20150317_115854_stevie-johnson.jpg?w=525

 

2009 Draft

2009 1 Aaron Maybin 11 DE 2012 0 0 0 5 48                         6.0 Penn St.
2009 1 Eric Wood 28 C 2017 0 1 9 47 120                           Louisville
2009 2 Jairus Byrd 42 DB 2017 0 3 7 40 118                       25 4.0 Oregon
2009 2 Andy Levitre 51 G 2017 0 0 9 55 141                           Oregon St.
2009 4 Shawn Nelson 121 TE 2010 0 0 1 1 17                 20 181 1     Southern Miss
2009 5 Nic Harris 147 LB 2010 0 0 0 5 30                         1.5 Oklahoma
2009 6 Cary Harris 183 DB 2010 0 0 0 1 6                       2   USC
2009 7 Ellis Lankster 220 DB 2014 0 0 0 5 49                       2 1.0 West Virginia

 

2009 Draft

 

3 Hits/5 misses = 38%

 

Yeah Russ whiffed BADLY on Aaron Maybin.  Perhaps one of the worst draft picks in Bills history.  But he did well in the rest of the 1st and 2nd round netting 3 Pro Bowl players who had decent careers in Buffalo.  This draft will likely save his Hit to Miss ratio.

 

So overall yes, Russ was a very bad GM...BUT thanks to 3 solid picks in 2009 his final score is 28%

 

For those keeping score:

 

Success Rate as GM:

 

Marv Levy:  31%

Russ Brandon: 28%

Russ was terrible as GM.

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