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1st & 2nd down is the biggest reason Dennison's gone... here's your proof

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That’s good stuff and I’m not arguing those figures but the reason he’s gone is 1 second half TD in last 7 games.

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5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I swear in our playoff game almost every offensive series culminated in a 3rd down. It was maddening to watch. You can only convert so many 3rd downs, eventually you have to get in front of the sticks on earlier downs. Good research and this was probably a big factor in why Dennison is gone.

 

 As unpopular as this might be, I thought Taylor played well in the first half of that game. I thought he was playing well enough to make up for some head-scratching faults of our OC.

 

I think Denison liked to just go to the well way too frequently and didn't space it enough. What I mean by that is look at the very first two first downs of the game.

 

They were the exact same friggin play! And it didn't work either time!

 

Actually, first and second down we're almost to the exact same in the first six downs so that we had:

 

1st down- Play Action Bootleg read well by Jax 

 

2nd down- 3 yard rush by McCoy that probably could have been stuffed for less with a different RB

 

3rd & 7- 1 conversion to Zay with a nice pass in the pocket followed by a Jacksonville blitz that quickly gets to Taylor without giving him the opportunity to throw it.

 

Think the Jags saw a pattern?

 

Next drive:

 

1st down- McCoy run for 1 yard 

 

2nd down- McCoy stuffed for -1 yards 

 

3rd & 10- sideline pattern to Thompson who catches the ball 1 yard short of the stick without time to realize he's short and extend the ball.

 

In the 1st half alone the Bills ended up with only 2 3rd and 2s, 1 3rd and 5,  2 3rd and 6s, 5 3rd and 7s, 1 3rd and 10 and 1 3rd and 13 and ended up 6/12 (50%) in converting those for 1st downs with one due to a defensive penalty.

 

That's pretty good against that D.

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8 hours ago, Tenhigh said:

Thanks man, interesting stuff.  Can you easily extract % of total run vs pass attempts per 1st and 2nd regardless of yardage? I tried, my phone no lika da link...

 

Yes just probably on a computer. Go to "play index" on PFR and set your parameters 0:)

8 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

I blame Castillo and our OL.  No running plays work on 1st down when Shady has a guy on his back before he gets back to the LOS.

 

8 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

Interestingly enough, the Bills were 14th in the NFL of rushes of 5+ yards on first or second down.

 

I think both of these posts are indicative of my biggest issue with Dennison:

 

If something was successful once, he believed he could go back to it again on the next play (figuratively) and have the same success.

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8 hours ago, MTBill said:

Fascinating stuff.

 

Not that we did a lot of this - but it does include kneeldowns.  I turned kneeldowns off and we still led the league on offense with 102.

 

What I also found as a positive stat - as the "defense" - we were tied for 6th with 84 stops for 0 or less on 1st/2nd down, excluding kneeldowns.

 

 

 

Damnit!!!

 

I was playing around with this a bit just trying to get it to work for the parameters I was looking for and the freaking thing kept resetting.

 

Can you give me the link with the parameters without the kneeldowns? I'm on a different device now and would like to fix it. :thumbsup:

6 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

ALEX Smith will come to take his job next.  

 

I actually highly doubt this. Like I really really don't think it'll happen.

5 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Agreed.  Very interesting stuff. 

At the risk of being the guy who's too lazy to do the research himself but has no problem criticizing the guy who did ... obviously we run more than just about any other team. Any idea how it looks as a percentage rather than the raw number?

 

I wanted to figure this out but haven't yet. There for the taking, though :flirt: 

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13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&role=rusher&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&yg_gtlt=lt&yards=0&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=RUSH&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&order_by=game_date

 

Guys, I'm really sorry if you feel this didn't deserve it's own thread, but I gotta give a shout out to twoandfourteen who revealed to me the incredible intricacies of pro-football-reference as a resource.

 

Thanks dude :thumbsup: 

It took some tinkering, but I always suspected Buffalo's offensive playcalling was so predictable that it ended up giving us more "stuffed" runs on 1st or 2nd downs than any other team in the NFL. It was just a suspicion of mine, though.

I could never track it.


Well, here you have it. I narrowed my search parameters to "In 2017, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, play type is rush, on 1st or 2nd down, gain of fewer than 0 yards, sorted by game date descending."

The Bills had the most rushes for less than or equal to 0 yards on 1st or 2nd down.

Those of you who don't want to click on the link... the Bills had the most "stuffed" runs of any other team in the NFL. The top 5 are:

1) Buffalo - 115
2) Minny - 112
3) NYJ - 106
4) Seattle - 105
5) Chicago - 101

I didnt click on the link but here is what I saw this year

 

- OL losing the battle in the trenches

 

- Lack of a pound it between the tackles RB 

 

- Crummy offensive scheme/blocking

 

At times we were definitely predictable, but so are many othere teams. It is that, hey, this is what we are going to do, try and stop us mentality that many teams employ. For us, it just doesnt work when your personnel as a whole is below average and your offensive system is lousy. Just my 2 cents- no expert.

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12 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Interesting on how stats can collide like that and not make sense.  Like I think we were one of the worst on 3 and outs but one of the best at converting 3rd downs.

Yeah, but a lot of it is just getting to third down. Teams like No and NE just don't get to third down that much, relatively speaking, and it may be the case that teams like that have a greater percentage of third downs deep in opponents' territory because of the compressed (and therefore easier to defend) field. I don't have the numbers, but the Bills seemed pretty terrible on third down in the red zone. Recall that they failed twice against Jax and were saved once by an offside on the FG kick.

 

Another knock on Dennison's scheme: the Bills were 2-14 on 4th down this season. That is AWFUL.

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16 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The Bills had the most rushes for less than or equal to 0 yards on 1st or 2nd down.

Those of you who don't want to click on the link... the Bills had the most "stuffed" runs of any other team in the NFL. The top 5 are:

1) Buffalo - 115
2) Minny - 112
3) NYJ - 106
4) Seattle - 105
5) Chicago - 101

 

If you account for the number of rushes, I think  it look even worse.    Minnesota rushed more times than the Bills.    So, as a percentage of plays, I bet it looks a lot worse.

 

I think it has a lot to do with the outside zone that Dennison liked to call often in the early games this season.    That play, if executed well, goes for big yards.   If it is not executed well, it is much more prone to getting your running back tackled in the backfield for a loss.     Makes sense too because the running back starts out running horizontally (sideways) instead of running towards the line of scrimmage.

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8 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

I didnt click on the link but here is what I saw this year

 

- OL losing the battle in the trenches

 

- Lack of a pound it between the tackles RB 

 

- Crummy offensive scheme/blocking

 

At times we were definitely predictable, but so are many othere teams. It is that, hey, this is what we are going to do, try and stop us mentality that many teams employ. For us, it just doesnt work when your personnel as a whole is below average and your offensive system is lousy. Just my 2 cents- no expert.

 

 Except for the fact that Denison problem wasn't about those types of plays it was about the place that we are predicated upon unpredictability.

 

One example is that in the first quarter alone of the game last Sunday the Bills ran that play action bootleg play to Taylor's right five friggin times!

 

I don't think ANY were successful!

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1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 Except for the fact that Denison problem wasn't about those types of plays it was about the place that we are predicated upon unpredictability.

 

One example is that in the first quarter alone of the game last Sunday the Bills ran that play action bootleg play to Taylor's right five friggin times!

 

I don't think ANY were successful!

Totally agree and so frustrating!

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I'm starting to believe Taylor is more likely still in a Bills uniform next year than not.

 

Not saying we won't draft a guy in the 1st. In fact, I think that's a virtual lock because I think McDermott's prefers to have "his guy" to mold culturally And competitively.

 

But I'm sorry, I believe the idea we're going to go and get an Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins AND draft a guy in the first is a little naive, which leaves us with some vet QB options that are mostly lateral moves or maybe a step forward at best; guys like Josh McCown. 

 

 

These are guys who weren't part of the team in our massive culture change over the last year, and I think people are really underestimating the type of guy McDermott wants in the locker room. Regardless of whatever you think of Taylor as a player, I think most would agree Taylor is a McDermott type of guy.

 

And I think the fact that McDermott decided to fire Dennison rather than keep him is another sign Taylor stays.

 

But don't worry, we're drafting our future Franchise QB... at least that's what we hope he turns into.

Edited by transplantbillsfan

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On ‎1‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 5:27 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

I'm starting to believe Taylor is more likely still in a Bills uniform next year than not.

 

I agree with you.  I'm not convinced this team is going further than a WC with TT as the QB, however if you look at the potential vets who'll be out there...  are they long term or short term solutions?  I don't think they are interested in Cousins or Smith.  I think they could take a flier on Bridgewater if he's at the right price.  We have to play the long game - Brady isn't going to be in NE much longer before he retires - then the AFCE could be ripe for taking - and getting to host a playoff game again.  I think we still have 2-3 years before that happens.

 

When I look at the new OC, that screams to me a guy who works with what he has...  that just sort of tells me he'll be working with TT.  I think we draft the best QB available at 21/22 - unless there is a way to 'cheaply' move up.  I don't think they are going to go after a top 5 pick, it would cost too many picks for a team with so many holes to plug still - for a position which even going that high would still need a year or two to develop.  So - I think they take the best QB available with one of those picks, and fill out the roster.  They'll work with TT(or maybe a passable vet), the new rookie, and Peterman in 2018 - then the best of them will take over in 2019 if it isn't TT.  That is a "now & future" foundation and seems to fit "the process".  I know it isn't what a large portion of this fanbase wants, but it may be what we should expect.  Dennison was part of the problem, not the solution.  TT was also part of the problem (perhaps in large part due to that system).  Peterman isn't ready, and may never be.

 

Everyone wants to knock TT for making the call to throw on that 1st down inside the 5...  He couldn't know we'd get an OPI call.  If that is just an incomplete pass, they probably try a run...  Using the tool provided here.  79 running plays from inside the 5 happened in 2017 against the Jags.  Only 3 TDs were allowed on those plays from inside the 5 on Goal to Go plays.  The Jags were pretty stout on that D in that spot.  3 TDs were allowed via pass in the same range - out of 33 attempts.  So - trying a pass was more than twice as successful in 2017 from that distance against the Jags.

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We have a very inconsistent line. To me, if we plan on getting an FA QB, upgrading both sides of the line is the priority. 

 

 

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This thread right here should show how bad Dennison was.

 

TT needs to leave as well cause he’s not good enough, as I’m not defending his poor play this year.

 

But I’ve always argued and will continue to argue Dennison was more of a problem than TT.

 

The offensive stats from this year compared to 2015 and 2016 back that up 

Edited by billsfan11
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2 hours ago, Dafan said:

Other QBs\teams would convert on 1st and second downs more often.

With the 3rd most rushing attempts in the NFL, a lot of those 1st and 2nd downs weren't on the QB, forcing the 3rd down pass. So, it's definitely not all on Taylor.

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31 minutes ago, Young34 said:

With the 3rd most rushing attempts in the NFL, a lot of those 1st and 2nd downs weren't on the QB, forcing the 3rd down pass. So, it's definitely not all on Taylor.

As why i said QB\team.  I get it wasn't just taylor, but even the majority of the passes he attempted were short.

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On 1/12/2018 at 8:41 PM, Young34 said:

Tyrod is 12th in the league for 3rd down passing. That can't be right though, because he's the worst QB in the league.

 

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=098&type=Passing

 

I feel like that stat is interesting, but doesn't tell the whole story. What was his passing percentage when playing from behind with the game on the line or when needing to maintain a slim lead? Because I felt no confidence at all that he could pull something out in crunch time. 2 2nd half TDs in the last 7 games is pretty much my take on TT. He can rack up some garbage stats, but he's ineffective when it counts. 

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1 hour ago, Dafan said:

As why i said QB\team.  I get it wasn't just taylor, but even the majority of the passes he attempted were short.

For clarification... Are you saying the majority of passes he made on the 3rd down were short of getting the 1st? Sorry, I'm just not fully understanding this without specific context.

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That site is interesting on passing stats...  Taylor is pedestrian with most of those stats - sometimes not even in the top 20.

 

But - Completion % - 4th quarter.  He ranked 5th in the league.  Ahead of names you'd expect to be higher maybe (Brady, Rogers).  He was 1st in the league in Interceptions/attempt (though Alex Smith was nearly tied at 1% of passes attempted - it's not different by much and Smith had nearly 100 more attempts).

 

Looking at the 3rd down conversion % by range - Short (<3 yds) 9th @ 68.8% first downs, Medium (3-7 yds) 7th @ 53.2%, Long (8+ yds) 12th @ 29.4%.

 

I think you can look at statistics all over the place - when we break every data point down - you darn well better be good at a few things.  I would not be shocked (or entirely sad) to see TT back next season - with a long term answer in the wings.  Peterman does not feel like he is the long term solution - but maybe it was just a bad appearance vs. the Chargers (and his 1 attempt in the WC game).

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