brihs2005 Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 DB had 19 turnovers last year (16 Picks, 3 Fumbles Lost) I see JP struggling throughout the season, and i see him making plenty of mistakes (mis-reads, under throws, over throws, throwing into double or triple coverage, or passes that are ALMOST intercepted). But really, do i see him making a game changing play every game for the negative? 1 turnover a game for a QB in my opinion is unacceptable. I am willing to cut some slack but i don't want to see JPL turn the ball over 19 times next year. I can only imagine that his ball security is decision making (when not to make a throw) will be better than Bledsoe leading to around 13 Turnovers for the season in a run happy offense. Anyone want to start the over/under on turnovers we think the young man will have next year. I think less than 1 per game and we are in the playoffs. PS Bledsoe's Fumble numbers were soft as some of his turnovers were credited to McGahee and Shaud Williams i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 DB had 19 turnovers last year (16 Picks, 3 Fumbles Lost) I see JP struggling throughout the season, and i see him making plenty of mistakes (mis-reads, under throws, over throws, throwing into double or triple coverage, or passes that are ALMOST intercepted). But really, do i see him making a game changing play every game for the negative? 1 turnover a game for a QB in my opinion is unacceptable. I am willing to cut some slack but i don't want to see JPL turn the ball over 19 times next year. I can only imagine that his ball security is decision making (when not to make a throw) will be better than Bledsoe leading to around 13 Turnovers for the season in a run happy offense. Anyone want to start the over/under on turnovers we think the young man will have next year. I think less than 1 per game and we are in the playoffs. PS Bledsoe's Fumble numbers were soft as some of his turnovers were credited to McGahee and Shaud Williams i believe 241328[/snapback] Actually, averaging one turnover per game is typical for an NFL QB. McNabb averaged .875 per game, Culpepper 1 per game, Brady and Vick more than one per game (same as Bledsoe's, actually - 19 turnovers in 16 games), Manning something like .65 per game, Drew Brees .5 per game (both which are pretty freakish, actually). What you're basically saying is that, of all this year's Pro-Bowl QBs, fully two-thirds are unacceptable to you. Methinks you need another metric to judge by, personally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Methinks you need another metric to judge by, personally... 241375[/snapback] How about one that takes into account INTs + 3rd Down completion %, "weighted" relative to the QB's level of experience? I have no doubt Drew would flunk that metric, while JP would do a bit better because of the experience weighting. I realize that the weighting essentially "games" the outcome, but I still think it's important to keep in mind that JP fairly will have some growing pains. That's to be expected. By the same token, it was unacceptable for a 10-year vet to make some of the mistakes Drew made the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scribo Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 Actually, averaging one turnover per game is typical for an NFL QB. McNabb averaged .875 per game, Culpepper 1 per game, Brady and Vick more than one per game (same as Bledsoe's, actually - 19 turnovers in 16 games), Manning something like .65 per game, Drew Brees .5 per game (both which are pretty freakish, actually). What you're basically saying is that, of all this year's Pro-Bowl QBs, fully two-thirds are unacceptable to you. Methinks you need another metric to judge by, personally... 241375[/snapback] How many of thise turnovers were at keys times in the game though? Like when you're driving to beat the Pats or when you're ridiing a wave of momentum against the Steelers. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 How about one that takes into account INTs + 3rd Down completion %, "weighted" relative to the QB's level of experience? I have no doubt Drew would flunk that metric, while JP would do a bit better because of the experience weighting. I realize that the weighting essentially "games" the outcome, but I still think it's important to keep in mind that JP fairly will have some growing pains. That's to be expected. By the same token, it was unacceptable for a 10-year vet to make some of the mistakes Drew made the last two years. 241391[/snapback] I don't like throwing 3rd down completion percentage or any other such thing into a judgement of a QB, for the simple reason that such numbers are dependent on so much more than just the QB. I mean, the receiver still has to catch the ball, doesn't he? Same with sacks...the line still has to block. I'm not saying that Bledsoe's a good QB...I think he's mediocre, at best. I'm just saying that the measure by which most people judge QBs are ambiguous when not outright wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 How many of thise turnovers were at keys times in the game though? Like when you're driving to beat the Pats or when you're ridiing a wave of momentum against the Steelers. Just a thought. 241393[/snapback] And a thought I'd considered. But not one I wanted to spend time on, because I've got better things to do than the play-by-play analysis of every single turnover by every single QB in the leauge it would take to intelligently prove or disprove a correlation. But hey...if you want to spend a couple of days raising that from the level of "assumption" to "fact", be my guest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brihs2005 Posted February 16, 2005 Author Share Posted February 16, 2005 I do agree that the average QB should be around the range of 1 turnover per game, but i don't want an average QB playing for OUR Bills. I want above average at the worst. Compare Stats of Random QB's (picks only) Bledsoe... 450 Pass Attempts, 16 INT's.... 1 INT every 28.125 passes Manning... 497 Pass Attempts, 10 INT's.... 1 INT every 49.7 passes Harrington 487 Pass Attempts, 12 INT's .... 1 INT every 40.583 passes Plummer... 521 Pass Attempts, 20 INT's... 1 INT every 26.05 passes Pennington.. 370 Pass Attempts, 9 INT's.... 1 INT every 41.11 passes Brady... 474 Pass Attempts, 14 INT's.... 1 INT every 33.86 passes Boller... 464 Pass Attempts, 11 INT's... 1 INT every 42.18 passes Carr... 466 Pass Attempts, 14 INT's... 1 INT every 33.28 passes Favre... 540 Pass Attempts, 17 INT's... 1 INT every 31.76 passes I just want to see less mistakes made, particularly ones we can control. Would like to see a number around 1 pick every 35 pass attempts, assuming Losman throws the ball no more than 30 times a game (about what Drew did) i think we will be in good shape. Drew's mistakes were mostly mental and some were bad luck, get rid of the mental errors by way of JP and that number is easy to reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 but i don't want an average QB playing for OUR Bills. I want above average at the worst. 241490[/snapback] I agree...but that's not what you said. You said "1 turnover a game for a QB in my opinion is unacceptable". I merely demonstrated that it's not only acceptable, it's Pro-Bowl calibre, so pick another measure. And now you have...one which I don't necessarily agree with again (if a QB throws an interception, how do you know he threw it to the wrong place, or threw it to the right place but the receiver made the wrong cut, or the defense just made a great play. Again, there's often a lot more that goes into an interception than just the QB doing something stupid - though stupid QB play obviously does happen.) But at least the attempts-interception ratio is not one I can demonstrably discount as false... And by the way...Jim Kelly averaged 1 int per 27 attempts...you're not saying that Jim Kelly was an unacceptable QB too, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABills Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 I do agree that the average QB should be around the range of 1 turnover per game, but i don't want an average QB playing for OUR Bills. I want above average at the worst. Compare Stats of Random QB's (picks only) Bledsoe... 450 Pass Attempts, 16 INT's.... 1 INT every 28.125 passes Manning... 497 Pass Attempts, 10 INT's.... 1 INT every 49.7 passes Harrington 487 Pass Attempts, 12 INT's .... 1 INT every 40.583 passes Plummer... 521 Pass Attempts, 20 INT's... 1 INT every 26.05 passes Pennington.. 370 Pass Attempts, 9 INT's.... 1 INT every 41.11 passes Brady... 474 Pass Attempts, 14 INT's.... 1 INT every 33.86 passes Boller... 464 Pass Attempts, 11 INT's... 1 INT every 42.18 passes Carr... 466 Pass Attempts, 14 INT's... 1 INT every 33.28 passes Favre... 540 Pass Attempts, 17 INT's... 1 INT every 31.76 passes I just want to see less mistakes made, particularly ones we can control. Would like to see a number around 1 pick every 35 pass attempts, assuming Losman throws the ball no more than 30 times a game (about what Drew did) i think we will be in good shape. Drew's mistakes were mostly mental and some were bad luck, get rid of the mental errors by way of JP and that number is easy to reach. 241490[/snapback] And Losman is 1 INT out of every 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawnboy1977 Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 All I know is this..... WTF AM I GONNA DO WITH MY BLEDSOE JERSEY!!!! I'M JUST GLAD I DIDN'T BUY AN AUTHENTIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2003Contenders Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 You are probably right. I imagine that JP is going to make his fair share of mistakes. In fact, if the wild stallion comparison to Favre come close to being true, we can buckle ourselves down for a wild ride in 2005. In Favre's first full year as a starter, he threw 24 picks. But he also had firm, capable coaches in Holmgren, Reid, Gruden, and Mariucci that recognized his potential. With Wyche, Clemments, and Mularkey on hand, let's cross our fingers... BTW, the Packers also made it to the playoffs that year -- and didn't have near the supporting cast that we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obie_wan Posted February 16, 2005 Share Posted February 16, 2005 DB had 19 turnovers last year (16 Picks, 3 Fumbles Lost) I see JP struggling throughout the season, and i see him making plenty of mistakes (mis-reads, under throws, over throws, throwing into double or triple coverage, or passes that are ALMOST intercepted). But really, do i see him making a game changing play every game for the negative? 1 turnover a game for a QB in my opinion is unacceptable. I am willing to cut some slack but i don't want to see JPL turn the ball over 19 times next year. I can only imagine that his ball security is decision making (when not to make a throw) will be better than Bledsoe leading to around 13 Turnovers for the season in a run happy offense. Anyone want to start the over/under on turnovers we think the young man will have next year. I think less than 1 per game and we are in the playoffs. PS Bledsoe's Fumble numbers were soft as some of his turnovers were credited to McGahee and Shaud Williams i believe 241328[/snapback] more interesting will be how many times does JP beat the blitz with a big play to force the defense out of blitz mode. shouldn't be too hard to beat Drew's total inability to deliver the big play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts