A detailed look of our offensive production over the last 5 years

[Bangarang]

So I've been pretty vocal about my dislike for the job Marrone, Hackett and even Pat Morris have done with this offense. I was one who always thought things couldn't get much worse than Chan. I will admit I was wrong about that.

 

For a while I've been saying that Chan was able to do more with less so I figured I'd look up a ton of offensive stats over the last 5 years to see where we stack up offensively under Marrone as opposed to Chan. The results aren't really all that surprising and basically validates that this offense is trash and in several cases has only gotten worse since this regime took over.

 

Keep in mind that Chan coached this team for 3 years from 2010 until the end of the 2012 season. Marrone, obviously, has been here for the last two.

 

Below is a pretty simplistic break down. I listed the category and then for each put what our production was and where it ranked in the league in parenthesis. I've also included some brief comments after some of these categories.

 

 

 

Points per game

2010: 17.7 (28th)

2011: 23.2 (13th)

2012: 21.5 (21st)

2013: 21.2 (22nd)

2014: 21.2 (23rd)

 

 

Points per play

2010: 0.297 (27th)

2011: 0.375 (10th)

2012: 0.350 (19th)

2013: 0.304 (24th)

2014: 0.333 (21st)

 

 

Offensive touchdowns per game

2010: 1.9 (25th)

2011: 2.2 (15th)

2012: 2.2 (17th)

2013: 1.9 (25th)

2014: 2.0 (24th)

 

 

Redzone scoring percentage

2010: 51.35% (20th)

2011: 52.83% (11th)

2012: 50% (23rd)

2013: 47.73% (29th)

2014: 41.18% (32nd)

 

-Pretty self explanatory. One of the worst redzone teams under Marrone and Hackett. We had one year under Chan where we were above average.

 

 

Rushing yards per game

2010: 100.2 (20th)

2011: 120.1 (14th)

2012: 138.6 (6th)

2013: 144.2 (2nd)

2014: 100.2 (20th)

 

-We were 2nd in rushing yards per game but that was largely because we had the most rushing attempts per game in the league with 34. The year prior to Marrone, we ran the ball roughly 27 times per game. The running efficiency has taken a nose dive.

 

 

Rushing yards per attempt

2010: 4.3 (13th)

2011: 4.9 (4th)

2012: 5.0 (4th)

2013: 4.2 (14th)

2014: 3.9 (22nd)

 

-And this is where things get ugly. Chan’s offense was a top 5 unit his final 2 years in rushing yards per attempt. Since Marrone took over this stat has taken a massive nose dive. In 2013 we had the 2nd highest total rushing yards but that was mostly because of the amount of times we ran the ball. Statistically, we were an average running team based on our yards per attempt.

 

 

 

QB sacked %

2010: 6.15% (15th)

2011: 3.83% (2nd)

2012: 5.55% (11th)

2013: 8.42% (28th)

2014: 6.96% (22nd)

 

-Our QBs are getting sacked at a percentage under Marrone and Pat Morris. Is this scheme or talent? Probably both.

 

 

 

Passing yards per game

2010: 197.4 (24th)

2011: 231.6 (15th)

2012: 204.3 (25th)

2013: 193.9 (29th)

2014: 230.8 (18th)

 

-Kyle Orton has really helped improve on this statistic. EJ was averaging 209 passing yards per game which would have ranked 29th in the league.

 

 

 

Passing touchdowns per game

2010: 1.5 (17th)

2011: 1.5 (10th)

2012: 1.5 (16th)

2013: 1.0 (30th)

2014: 1.7 (14th)

 

-Kyle Orton has helped improve on this statistic as well. A plethora of inexperienced QBs helped make this one of the worst in the league last year.

 

 

 

 

Offensive drive success rate

(Measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. Take-a-knee drives at the end of a half are discarded)

2010: .635 (26th)

2011: .677 (15th)

2012: .670 (20th)

2013: .631 (28th)

2014: .616 (32nd)

 

 

 

 

Points per offensive drive

2010: 1.43 (28th)

2011: 1.74 (18th)

2012: 1.71 (20th)

2013: 1.53 (25th)

2014: 1.64 (24th)

 

 

 

Average starting field position per drive (line of scrimmage)

2010: 29.15 (20th)

2011: 26.49 (27th)

2012: 26.53 (22nd)

2013: 26.71 (25th)

2014: 31.50 (2nd)

 

-Below average basically every year except for this year. We have the 2nd best average starting field position in the league. Our efficiency and drive success rate being as bad as they are make this stat even more depressing.

 

 

 

 

 

Time of possession per offensive drive

2010: 2:31 (22nd)

2011: 2:36 (20th)

2012: 2:36 (20th)

2013: 2:12 (31st)

2014: 2:18 (30th)

 

-This was something that we were below average at with Chan but now we’re nearly the worst in the league under Marrone.

 

 

 

 

Offensive DVOA

(DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent)

2010: -14.5% (26th)

2011: 0.3% (16th)

2012: -4.2% (20th)

2013: -11.5% (25th)

2014: -15.4% (27th)

 

-Pretty obvious here that our efficiency on offense under this regime has only gotten worse.

 

More info on DVOA: http://www.footballo...om/info/methods

 

 

 

 

Yards per drive

2010: 26.28 (27th)

2011: 31.54 (12th)

2012: 29.53 (20th)

2013: 26.70 (26th)

2014: 25.47 (31st)

 

-Chan’s offense was able to drastically improve on this category in his 2nd year as HC. In year 3 however, this dipped quite a few spots and has only continued to decline since Marrone has taken over. Part of that could be attributed to having rookie QBs in his first year but why is it so bad this year with a 2nd year QB and 10 year veteran playing most of the games thus far?

 

 

 

 

Plays per drive

2010: 5.38 (23rd)

2011: 5.51 (21st)

2012: 5.43 (28th)

2013: 5.52 (22nd)

2014: 5.14 (31st)

 

-Improved in year 1 under a rookie QB oddly enough. Now, our plays per drive is the lowest it has been in the last 5 years and 2nd to last in the league.

 

 

Side note: This team has been near the top of the league in punt attempts per game under Marrone so far. We have the 3rd most punt attempts per game so far this year. Last year we had the most punts per game in the entire league.

 

 

I've made my thoughts on Marrone and Hackett quite clear over the last year and a half. The numbers indicate that this offense has only gotten worse since their arrival despite what I would consider to be greater talent available. Some of these numbers can be attributed to having young and inexperienced QBs during their first year as a coaching staff but even in year 2 this offense has either stayed the same or gotten worse. It's a major problem and a main reason why I think this team struggles to win games. I firmly believe our defense is the main reason why we are competitive and have a chance at winning every week.

Edited November 11, 2014 by Bangarang

[johnwalter]

love this thread - thank you.

i also quite like this "Offensive drive success rate" statistic.

except for the fact that were ranked last in the league by that metric.

[Orton's Arm]

Great thread! Anyone who hasn't yet taken the time to look at the numbers Bangarang posted should do so. It won't take long.

 

If the level of player talent had declined, the decline in offensive production could be blamed on that. Bearing that in mind, let's look at the talent each coach was given:

 

Quarterback:

Orton is better than Fitzpatrick. But Fitzpatrick is better than Manuel, Lewis, or Tuel. Marrone and Hackett get a mulligan for their first year, but much less so for year two.

 

RB:

Very similar. Fred Jackson is older than he was with Gailey, but still plays well when healthy. Bryce Brown and Boobie Dixon help offset Jackson's aging.

 

Offensive line:

The offensive linemen we have now are fairly similar to those we had with Gailey.

 

TE:

See offensive line.

 

WRs:

Under Gailey, the Bills' #1 WR was Stevie Johnson, with no clear-cut #2. Johnson was traded away for a 4th round pick, IIRC. Now, we have Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and plenty of good specialist type WRs. Hogan for underneath stuff, Goodwin as a deep burner, etc. There is no comparison between this year's WR corps and any that Gailey had.

 

Overall:

When you hire an uncreative, unimaginative head coach and offensive coordinator, you should expect uninspiring results. That's precisely what the Bills have received from Marrone and Hackett. A guy like Chip Kelly would be having a field day with talent like this!

[dave mcbride]

Great thread and post - thank you. I may bump this one occasionally because it's so rich. Hard to argue with the conclusions these stats point to.

[GunnerBill]

The offense isn't so much unimaginative... it is incoherent and confused. I still have no idea what the idea behind this offense is. What are we trying to do? Too many formations, too many concepts... none of which we master. Gailey's offense in his second year had a very strong concept. It struggled to adapt when people caught up with it, which is a different problem but there was a scheme designed to get production out of our best offensive weapons (which at that stage were Fred, CJ and SJ13).

 

What makes it so frustrating is we are wasting the best Bills defense in at least a decade with this shambles of an offense.

[eme123]

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