Numark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) Here is my opinion on what the bills may do to address the offense, a defense topic will follow. Feel free to make suggestions or tell me where I'm wrong. I'm not going to include every single depth player also just for heads up as a lot of people will be in camp next year who we know aren't going to make the team. Color Code --- Likelihood to keep position on depth chart: Likely, 50/50, unlikely FA = Free Agent (On March 11th, this player is free to sign anywhere) RFA = Restricted Free Agent (If the bills offer this player a qualifying contract, the player can negotiate with other teams but the bills can match the offer or be compensated for their loss) EFA = Exclusive rights free agent (If the Bills offer them a contract, then they must accept it) QB Starter: EJ Manuel 2nd String: Thad Lewis 3rd String: Jeff Tuel Other: Kevin Kolb Free Agent Targets: Derek Anderson, Rex Grossman, Chad Henne, and Shaun Hill (For 2nd or 3rd string) Draft: Rounds 4-7 (For 2nd or 3rd string) Extension Possibilities: None Possible Losses: Kolb (cut) Analysis: Like it or not, Manuel will be the starter next year and we are not going to be drafting a QB in the first 3 rounds next year. You may see the bills draft a young QB late (rounds 4-7) that could challenge Tuel or Lewis for a roster spot, or they could bring a veteran to backup Manuel. RB Starter: CJ Spiller 2nd String: Fred Jackson 3rd String: Ronnie Wingo FB: Frank Summers (EFA) Free Agent Targets: James Starks, Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Dwyer, and Jackie Battle Draft: Rounds 3-7 (For 2nd or 3rd string) Extension Possibilities: Spiller, Jackson Possible Losses: Summers (EFA) Analysis: While Spiller and Jackson will once again be a 1-2 punch, the Bills need to add a 3rd running back for a number of reasons. Spiller and Jackson are free agents in 2015, both of them have injury concerns, and Fred Jackson isn't going to be the #2 forever. I believe the bills will draft a running back somewhere in rounds 3-5. WR Starters: Stevie Johnson, Robert Woods 2nd String: Marquis Goodwin, TJ Graham Depth: Marcus Easley, Chris Hogan (EFA), Ramses Barden, Brandon Kaufman Free Agent Targets: Jeremy Maclin ($$$), Kenny Britt, Jacoby Ford, Jacoby Jones, Andre Roberts Draft: Rounds 1-7 Extension Possibilities: N/A Possible Losses: Hogan (EFA) Analysis: What we thought was a strength after the draft last year, turned out to be not so great. Stevie Johnson continues to have injury issues and key drops while TJ Graham is still not developing into an NFL receiver. However Woods and Goodwin look like the real deal. The Bills signed Barden in January and this could become a good signing as Barden has flashed potential in the past. However, the bills could always shock the fans by cutting stevie johnson and going after a top 2 receiver in free agency or the draft. Either way, expect a new face or two. TE Starter: Scott Chandler (FA) 2nd String: Lee Smith Depth: Tony Moeaki, Chris Gragg, Mike Caussin (RFA) Free Agent Targets: Brandon Pettigrew, Tony Scheffler, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Myers Draft: Rounds 1-7 Extension Possibilities: N/A Possible Losses: Chandler (FA), Caussin (RFA) Analysis: A good TE is the best thing you can do for a young QB and a team that struggles in the red zone. Only had 2 TDs last year despite leading the team in targets (this was edited from original post). Finding a great TE is something very difficult to do, and you typically have to invest a 1st or 2nd round pick into one. OT Starters: Cordy Glenn, Eric Pears Depth: Thomas Welch (RFA), Chris Hairston Free Agent Targets: Jared Veldheer ($$$), Eugene Monroe ($$$), Zach Strief, Anthony Collins, Austin Howard, Michael Oher, Eben Britton, Jason Fox Draft: Rounds 1-7 Extension Possibilities: Pears Possible Losses: Welch (RFA), Hairston (Cut/Retire) Analysis: We have to have a better offensive line next year, and while the interior of the line is in much worse shape, depth is needed at tackle and Pears can be upgraded. Interior Line Starters: Eric Wood, Doug Legursky, Kraig Urbik Depth: Mark Asper, Antoine McClain (EFA) Free Agent Targets: Geoff Schwartz ($$$), Travelle Wharton, Rodger Saffold, Jon Asamoah, Matt Slausen, Brian De La Puente, Eben Britton Draft: Rounds 1-7 Extension Possibilities: Legursky Possible Losses: McClain (EFA) Analysis: This is an absolute joke. Out of any position on this team, this is in the worst shape with below average starters and horrible depth. The worst part about that is how important the interior of your line is. If the other team can easily get through your interior line, then your passing game and run game is going to suffer severely. And this is exactly what happened throughout last year. This has to improve with hopefully two new starting guards and then legursky and urbik can be solid depth players. Summary One good thing about going into this offseason is there are no key unrestricted free agents at offense. We should be able to keep every single player we want to keep, and then add through the free agency and draft. So going into next year, this is what I can almost 100% guarantee will be our starters: QB: Manuel RB: Spiller RB2: Jackson WR1: WR2: Woods (will either be WR1 or WR2) WR3: Goodwin TE: LT: Glenn LG: C: Wood RG: RT: This means there are question marks at WR, TE, LG, RG, and RT. As Far as free agency goes, don't expect the bills to sign any big name offensive free agents unless we splurge on the line (Veldheer, Monroe, or Schwartz). The only other big name player you may see the bills target is Jeremy Maclin who should command a huge payday however. Edited January 26, 2014 by Numark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan3434 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 First of all, great post with some awesome research/sight. However, while I do agree with most of your points, I think there is a slight misconception when it comes to judging the QB/WRs/TEs. I think we can all agree that the passing game was horrendous. I think one thing the coaches must figure out, and should be their #1 concern, is: was the passing game a result of: a.) bad depth at the WR/TE position and/or lack of talent, or b.) the instability of our quarterback situation, not having a stable quarterback, and when we did he was still a learning rookie. I am going to go with b. I think with another year or two under E.J's belt, you won't see the same WR corps. Save TJ Graham, that guy is a joke. He shouldn't play back yard football, let alone for the Buffalo Bills. I've saw so many bad drops in key situations. I'm over having him on the field any longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeYouToTasker Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Chandler did not regress. Quite the opposite, he led the team in both receptions and receiving yards, while having a career year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheddar's Dad Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Chandler did not regress. Quite the opposite, he led the team in both receptions and receiving yards, while having a career year. You're missing the point. Numark wants a 1st. Rd. TE and has slanted his remarks toward that goal. Nice colors though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Nice effort! I think our needs are prioritized as follows: 1. Taller, longer, receiver with jumping ability and catching radius. We do not have anything close to this, and it hurts in the redzone especially. Draft 2. Another TE to be our number 1, with Chandler as our second TE, you need to have two good TEs in this offense. Draft or FA 3. Right Tackle. Pears was not strong last year and is getting older. Draft. 4. Interior O-LINE. Speaks for itself. Do this free agency. All these things will make EJ that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) Chandler did not regress. Quite the opposite, he led the team in both receptions and receiving yards, while having a career year. He did have a lot of receptions and therefore more yards, but i think that had to do with having no stevie most of the year. He actually only had 2 TDs though the entire year after having 6 each of the two years before last. Essentially what I'm getting at is that if your career year has you at 2 TDs then you aren't really that great. I think he is an average TE and I would love him as a #2. But scott chandler isn't a threat in the sense that teams gameplan for him or he is going to bail out a young QB and be a reliable target. First of all, great post with some awesome research/sight. However, while I do agree with most of your points, I think there is a slight misconception when it comes to judging the QB/WRs/TEs. I think we can all agree that the passing game was horrendous. I think one thing the coaches must figure out, and should be their #1 concern, is: was the passing game a result of: a.) bad depth at the WR/TE position and/or lack of talent, or b.) the instability of our quarterback situation, not having a stable quarterback, and when we did he was still a learning rookie. I am going to go with b. I think with another year or two under E.J's belt, you won't see the same WR corps. Save TJ Graham, that guy is a joke. He shouldn't play back yard football, let alone for the Buffalo Bills. I've saw so many bad drops in key situations. I'm over having him on the field any longer. Great post and I think you are right. I think the passing production is more to blame on the line and poor QB play. However, I would like to see more talent at TE than chandler and a new face or two at WR. I don't mind stevie coming back as the #1 with woods and goodwin behind him. But I would like different depth after those three, and I wouldn't be shocked to see stevie cut. Edited January 25, 2014 by Numark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSBill Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Chandler did not regress. Quite the opposite, he led the team in both receptions and receiving yards, while having a career year. yes, I had the same thought when I read this. While the rest of your analysis is solid, this point was untenable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 A few thoughts: With Moeaki and Chandler we potentially have 2 very strong, though not elite, TEs in the mix. I don't believe an elite TE is harder to find in the mid rounds than most other positions. A significant upgrade at LG would make Urbik look much better at RG, and Legursky would make for nice depth. Significant upgrades at LG and RT would give us one of the best offensive lines in football. If Hairston's out of the picture it might be a good idea to draft a RT and keep Pears around for 1 more year to ease the new guy in and maintain depth. Our center's name is Eric Wood. I'd like to see TJ Graham play one more season before giving up on him. He's not there yet but he's shown significant progress. If there isn't a blue chip WR this year (it's debatable), specifically one available when we pick, it might be wise to take BPA at a position of some need and look at WR next year or in FA. We've got young talented guys who very well may break out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 (edited) I changed what I wrote about Chadnler and took that out for you all. Here is my Scott Chandler thought process. By regressed I meant he had two solid years with his first two years here, and I thought he was going to continue that path and be the answer at TE, however last year I don't believe he did and showed he is an average TE. Okay stats. What are TEs suppose to excel at and help with? Touchdowns and moving the chains 2011- 6 TDs 2012 - 6 TDs 2013 - 2 TDs (35th in the league) 2011 - 65.8 % of catches for 1st Downs (25 catches, 14 games) 2012 - 83.7 % of catches for 1st Downs (36 catches) 2013 - 49.1 % of catches for 1st Downs (26 catches) (42nd in the league) Yes folks he had a ton more targets and catches this year because of a lot of injuries to a WR core. So his catches and yards increased, but that doesn't mean you simply had a better year. If they throw you the ball 80+ times, you are going to have more catches and yards. Yet other cumulative stats like TDs and 1st downs a game dropped. Despite being 13th in the league for catches for a TE, he was tied for 35th in the league for TDs for a TE. And of TEs with at least 20 catches, he was 42nd in 1st down percentage (only 4 TEs were worse). So again in my opinion, chandler had career highs in targets, catches, and yards. But career lows in TDs and 1st downs a game. If chandler had a "career year" in any sense other than targets/receptions/yards, TE wouldn't be listed as such a need for the bills. The mock drafts wouldn't have a TE going to the bills so often. And there would be a cry for the bills to actually sign him Our center's name is Eric Wood. Thanks I know his name, it was a typo Edited January 25, 2014 by Numark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Chandler did not regress. Quite the opposite, he led the team in both receptions and receiving yards, while having a career year. agreed I have a much bigger problem with Chandler's blocking than receiving- One thing I like about AJS is the way he extends his long arms gets his big hands on DBs and LBs and pushes them around like a shopping cart, he's not explosive he just causally pushes them about 15 yards away from the play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dibs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I changed what I wrote about Chadnler and took that out for you all..... I'm glad you wrote that as I was going a bit loopy trying to figure how your OP(modified) solicited all of the discussions about Chandler. As it stands.....great OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numark Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm glad you wrote that as I was going a bit loopy trying to figure how your OP(modified) solicited all of the discussions about Chandler. As it stands.....great OP. I said chandler regressed heavily. It was a poor choice of words i think, the people spoke, I was wrong haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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