The Margin of Error -- and Success -- is Razor Thin

[BuffaloWings]

That isn't to say that there are players who we couldn't improve on outside of those 4 positions.....but players like Urbik & SJ are all of a level higher than those mentioned that have needed replacing. Realistically TE & RT could be added to the previous two years lists but it is only now that we can think of replacing okay(but not solid-good) players.

 

I was just thinking this the other day...not as many positions are needs as there were before this year. We could even throw WR into that mix - put pressure on Stevie, Woods, Graham, & Goodwin to perform. That is, catch the ball and not fumble it.

 

If anything, we could have used a veteran backup this year. I loathed the Kevin Kolb signing, but he might have come in handy instead of Lewis & Tuel. Who knows if a few of those games are different if Kolb (presumed healthy) was in there.

[reddogblitz]

I was just thinking this the other day...not as many positions are needs as there were before this year. We could even throw WR into that mix - put pressure on Stevie, Woods, Graham, & Goodwin to perform. That is, catch the ball and not fumble it.

 

WR is a glaring need that MUST be addressed in the off season IMHO.

[Gerry]

The Falcons game was the most painful of the year for this fan.

 

Yeah, the Chiefs debacle at the end was bad. We SHOULD have beaten them (with a third-string undrafted rookie QB). But the Falcons? We were SUPPOSED to. Further, it ended our playoff hopes. Fourteen !@#$ing years.

 

Which got me thinking. I've seen a lot of posts here decrying how "far" the Bills are from postseason glory.

 

Nonsense.

 

This team is five plays away from being 9-3.

 

We've been throttled by the Saints and Steelers and were thoroughly outplayed by the Jets the first go-around. That's three games we should've lost.

 

Barring those games, we're one glorious play away from winning each one.

 

We COULD have beaten the Patriots, Browns, Bengals, Chiefs and Falcons. You're probably saying "So could any team." But if you look at these losses, we're literally talking about one play each game -- a pick 6, a missed tackle, a stripped ball -- away from winning. We couldn't say that the previous two years.

 

On the negative side, this team is also three plays from being 1-11.

 

Yeah, we could've lost the Panthers or Dolphins games. A great fade route to SJ and a strip sack on Tannehill won those games. Such a razor thin margin.

 

But the good news is, razor thin can swing both ways ... given the right pieces are in play.

 

What's the point?

 

That's serious progress, even though the record doesn't indicate it. Last year, we were blown away so much it was ridiculous. Not a homer, or eternal optimist, talking here. Just looking at the situation rationally.

 

We're literally three pieces away from being on the right side of the blade.

1. If EJ Manuel becomes the quarterback that management thought he was, that's one glaring piece. I'm neither sold or down on the guy yet. But he's trending in the right direction IMO.
    
   
2. We're sorely lacking a big, fast, physical tight end. Watching Tony Gonzalez, Gronk and Jimmy Graham violently pluck balls out of the air, run deep routes, and not go down at first contact, and it becomes obvious this team could greatly benefit.
    
   
3. The final piece? A shutdown corner. I focused on the Falcons' corners on Sunday, and for the most part they were playing man to man. They were glue. I watched ours. Very loose coverage to say the least. A key part of Pettine's attacking defense relies on shutdown corners. You fill this piece, and our attacking defense is legit on all levels.
   

Everything else is depth in my strong opinion. O line? OK. D line? One of the best in the league. Safeties? Barring Byrd leaving, we appear set. Linebackers? They actually have done pretty well this year. What a fine pick Alonso was!

 

We've witnessed the amazing rise of the Chiefs ... and the deep fall of the Falcons ... in ONE year. The same can easily happen to the Bills. Since there's not much further to drop, I have to believe the opposite will happen.

 

The future is bright my friends. I know you've heard that 13 times before. But I feel this team is damn close.

Look at some of the words used in this piece-SHOULD, COULD, IF, COULD'VE. The Bills are 4-8, and there is no indication that any progress has been made to date from the Jauron and Gailey regimes. They have an opportunity to make a statement in the last 4 games; why not do it and prove that the future is bright? How about EJ going back to FL in the next two weeks and throwing for 250-300 yards each game in warm weather? Everyone is healthy, why shouldn't he be able to do it? No reason for Marrone/Hackett not to turn him loose, he has already started 8 games and playoffs are a pipe dream. Chandler said they should be not only be winning, but dominating teams. How about showing this by blowing out the two FL teams and then Miami at home?

[Dorkington]

I feel like this thread happens every year.

[thewildrabbit]

I was never more enthusiastic about a season as I was for 2008 after Brady went out for the year in the very first game.

 

Then the Bills go on a tear with Trent Edwards starting the season 4-0. Man 0 Man those 4 wins were already more then half of what they scored the previous year.

 

Then the debacle at Arizona where an untouched safety blitzes the QB. Edwards completes the pass but his head hits the turf so hard he is severely concussed. That hit in 2013 would now draw not only a penalty, but probably a fine and even a suspension. Anyway, with Edwards suffering the effects of a severe concussion the Bills lose that game after JP Losman takes over, and they go on to a 5-1 start.

 

After that Trent Edwards was never the same player after that hit, as we now know that the effects of a severe concussion can linger for months, even years. That another concussion can happen much easier and more often with just slight hits. Needless to say the concussion protocol back in 2008 was so different back then as it allowed Edwards to much sooner then he should have. Some players are now forced into surrendering the entire season or forced retirement because of reoccurring concussions.

 

I knew looking at the many mistakes Nix / Gailey made in their first off season, regular season they wouldn't win many games. This new coaching staff / GM made some of the exact same mistakes Nix / Gailey made their first year. I can only think that Buddy Nix being the GM until after the draft had a lot to do with this years start.

 

 

 

All that said, I'm very enthusiastic about the future of this team with Whaley taking over for Nix, Marrone as HC, EJ at QB. Whaley in his first draft was so much better then his predecessors Nix, Jauron / Levy, Donahoe.

 

This next off season will be very telling as to what Bills fans can expect for the future. As of right now it looks like the 1986 Bills coming out of a funk with bad coaches, bad players, constant bad decisions in the off seasons.

 

It is simple, what do we know? The Bills are desperate for an upgrade at LG. Then the current RT is merely adequate, OLB - pass rusher, TE, and perhaps a safety if they choose not to make Byrd the highest paid player at his position (what he wants).

 

The Bills (Whaley) have already addressed the TE position with the pickup of a potential star at TE in Tony Moeaki, who if he can stay healthy will be a great addition to the team.

 

So, OG, OLB, RT, S in any order on draft day would hit a bulls-eye. Then there is always free agency for depth, and to perhaps sign a top WR like Eric Decker, or perhaps Bradys fav new target WR Julian Edelman. RB Ben Tate as a plow horse type for those elusive 3rd and shorts.

 

The Bills with some different moves could have made the playoffs this season, QB, OG, CB, WR. But we know that this GM, HC, OC, QB are all rookies at their jobs. So we cut them some slack.