Compensatory Draft Picks

[NoSaint]

 

Keeping me honest:)

 

I think we would have been in line to receive some compensatory picks in this draft if we had not spent the farm on Mario and Anderson. At a minimum the spooky formula that somehow always gives Baltimore a ton of picks should have coughed up something for the loss of Bell; Although I think Philly would gladly ship him back for a can of Genny Cream Ale after they inked him in 2012 to a 5-year 34.5 million dollar contract and he was terrible.

 

i do what i can.

 

if you pull those two guys, maybe. i dont remember what our equation ended up at last year. given we got nothing, i can say that means we signed more than we lost. if you pull out one of those guys (mario) and it gets you back to even numbers in and out, at most its a 7th rounder that we would be eligible for... and thats assuming it gets us back to a net of zero on the total number of bodies. thats also assuming we didnt sign any other qualifying players with the cap space saved.

[Brainiac21]

We signed Manny Lawson and Alan Branch as guys who weren't cut. They should both count against our potential compensatory picks for next year.

 

Are Levitre and Reinhart the only two who we've lost that will count for us next year? If so, we would be evened out as signing two and losing two. However, we should be in a good spot to gain at least one extra pick, as Levitre far exceeds any of the guys we've signed. If we stand put on signings now, we should get something back.

 

Do we have anyone else out there that was a free agent for us that if they sign elsewhere will give us a pick?

shoot, forgot Branch... Thigpen, Spencer Johnson, and McIntyre are the only guys i think out there whose contracts were up. not sure about Thiggy, as he originally signed a 3 year deal, but took pay cut last year; not sure if they also shortened the deal but i didn't read he was cut so i think his deal is just up which would make him count.

[ColdBlueNorth]

The Bills can't win with some "fans".

If they don't sign anybody, they are cheap and don't want to win.

If they do sign somebody, they either overpaid, signed garbage noone wanted or are just "trying to make a splash"

 

Fixed.

 

I am like any other fan, if the team ownership and management puts a competitive team out there more often than not I am less critical of how they run things. If they don't, then all bets are off and every move they make can and should be scrutinized.

 

No apologies.

Edited April 9, 2013 by ColdBlueNorth

[NoSaint]

 

shoot, forgot Branch... Thigpen, Spencer Johnson, and McIntyre are the only guys i think out there whose contracts were up. not sure about Thiggy, as he originally signed a 3 year deal, but took pay cut last year; not sure if they also shortened the deal but i didn't read he was cut so i think his deal is just up which would make him count.

 

branch! thats the guy i was leaving out. we are in fact sitting at a net of zero this year. very few expiring contracts that id expect to get signed and many holes left to fill. id still chalk thigpen up as a loss (eventually).... but i dont think were seeing more than a 7 (equal in and out) and even that is unlikely in my head... CMac i think will be a last minute guy, but maaaaybe he will end up helping us, and spencer... we will see...

Edited April 9, 2013 by NoSaint

[The Big Cat]

Last year he did not play a significant role in moving the defense forward, and he cost the team picks in this years draft and occupies a significant chunk of cap space - that is why I made the comment that he does not move the team forward.

 

Remember that he was given the largest contract for a defensive player in NFL history.

 

Does anyone feel he played up to that level?

 

I could very well be wrong - I really hope I am, because this defense needs him to get back to being "Super" Mario. I do believe he is or was a rare player and I am optimistic that Pettine is creative enough to get more out of his skillset and the defense as a whole this year a lot of it depends on where his head is at. Many players tank after getting huge contracts, I hope he is not one of them.

 

And as has been said here a gagillion times since the Week 1 NYJ Debacle: Wanny's defense was an absolute joke. Listen to what the players are saying now, and try and extrapolate how they felt about their station during the season last year.

[ColdBlueNorth]

And as has been said here a gagillion times since the Week 1 NYJ Debacle: Wanny's defense was an absolute joke. Listen to what the players are saying now, and try and extrapolate how they felt about their station during the season last year.

 

So what you are saying is that the players blame the coach? Not exactly original, but in this case I agree that whatever magic formula Wanny had back in the day to make his defenses competitive did not translate over in today's NFL against today's offenses.This is still one of those "show me the baby" situations for me. I love this team, but following them as long as I have you really start to feel like Charlie Brown with Lucy holding the football when it comes to moves that translate into better results on the field.

 

I do not think it is that unusual for me to hold some reservations regarding Pettine and his ability to transform our defense. He certainly has the pedigree, my only concern is that he has always been in Rex's shadow and I hope he was not just channeling Rex's game plans these many years. It is a small reservation as I do think he will get more out of the players (Wanny set the bar pretty low) - and I am actually hopeful that our defense will finally crawl out of the cellar.

 

If we select a rookie QB this year or next year and try to groom him with a defense that cannot get off the field and is giving up points, it really tends to put too much of a load on a rookie's shoulders to try to keep up. I do hope they patch up the defense before we throw some kid into the fire. At least if your defense keeps giving your offense the ball back, a young QB will be more inclined to take what he is given, throw the ball away when nothing is there and have less worries about going 3 and out, then punting to keep the D in good field position.

Edited April 9, 2013 by ColdBlueNorth

[Cash]

Recommended reading for anyone interested in comp picks:

 

http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

 

The 2012 predictions go into a little more details about the individual predictions:

 

http://bloggingthebeast.com/2012/02/03/2012-compensatory-pick-projections/

 

I'm hoping this guy does a 2014 prediction once the FA period is over. Anyway, we're at 2 lost and 2 gained so far. Assuming BillsDaily's front office page is correct, here are our remaining unsigned free agents:

 

Kyle Moore

Spencer Johnson

Ruvell Martin

Corey McIntyre

Tyler Thigpen

Kirk Morrison

 

Remember that low minimum-salary type deals generally don't count. (According to Spotrac, Rinehart got 1yr/$1.75mil, so he should still count.) It's hard for me to imagine Martin, Morrison, or Thigpen getting enough above the minimum to count in the formula. And frankly, McIntyre's likely to be pretty close as well, but might have a shot at getting a decent-ish contract. That leaves Kyle Moore and Spencer Johnson.

 

On the whole, I tend to doubt that we'll wind up with any comp picks next year. Keep in mind that we still have some more roster-filling to do, and may very well sign a few more FAs (who weren't cut by their teams) to above-minimum deals. Looking at the way the rules are set up, I think this would be my FA gameplan if I were a GM:

 

1.) Target "unwanted" players whenever possible (cuts, non-tendered RFAs or ERFAs like Donald Jones or David Nelson)

2.) Try to sign guys to minimum-level deals whenever possible. Yeah, every team does that, duh, but I mean being willing to take the last LB left for the minimum instead of needing Manny Lawson for 4 years/$12 mil. The guy you're left with probably won't be as good as the guy you wanted, or maybe will be as good a player but a worse fit for your team, but he'll probably still be pretty good, and you get an extra draft pick in the bargain.

3.) Be aware of the way the matching works. For example, once Houston lost Super Mario last year, he was obviously going to net them a 3rd-rounder UNLESS they failed to have a net loss of free agents. So if you've already lost a guy to a huge deal, be extra careful with your signings. If you don't expect to lose any significant free agents, you can disregard rules 1 and 2 because you're only giving up maybe a 6th or 7th round pick at best.

[JimS]

Okay, you Guys are confusing me...

 

I thought THIS year's compensatory picks, to be used this month (no extra for The Bills) , is based on free agency LAST year, right?

[Brainiac21]

Okay, you Guys are confusing me...

 

I thought THIS year's compensatory picks, to be used this month (no extra for The Bills) , is based on free agency LAST year, right?

yep.

[JimS]

yep.

 

Thank you.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

This still chaps my ***, I was going to say "butt".

 

Those that whine and B word every year wanting our team to spend to the hilt on free agents have to read this and understand how a team like the Texans (that did so well last year with a dominant defense) can jettison a high-priced veteran, free up cap space, and still get treated to a banquet of draft picks as if they were struggling.

 

Not only does Mario take up a large chunk of the Bills cap space; Cap they could use to sign and keep players they need, but we are still paying for that move in our ability to draft players to fill the holes in our current roster.

 

 

http://www.buffaloru...pensatory-picks

 

we should get one for Levitre though.

[NoSaint]

 

 

we should get one for Levitre though.

 

though, like stated by a few in the thread - its actually unlikely that we will. if the offseason were to end today, itd be at the end of the 7th round, behind the teams that lost players but ahead of the section where they start an 8th round until 32 comps are doled out.

[jtewy]

I figured if we ended up with a net of 0 free agents--the same amount lost vs. the number gained, we would get a decent pick for the loss of Levitre. I'm not expecting a 3rd rounder, but possibly a 5th or so due to his HUGE contract and how much he'll contribute with the Titans. Am I off base on this?

 

If we somehow end up -1 in free agency--we lose more than we gain, I think we'll get at least a 4th rounder for him if not a 3rd.

[NoSaint]

I figured if we ended up with a net of 0 free agents--the same amount lost vs. the number gained, we would get a decent pick for the loss of Levitre. I'm not expecting a 3rd rounder, but possibly a 5th or so due to his HUGE contract and how much he'll contribute with the Titans. Am I off base on this?

 

If we somehow end up -1 in free agency--we lose more than we gain, I think we'll get at least a 4th rounder for him if not a 3rd.

 

you can lose tom brady and sign tyler thigpen and the most you can get is a 7th. you need a net loss of guys to do any better. the quality of those guys only determines the order in the 7th, and its after all the teams that actually lost more guys

Edited April 9, 2013 by NoSaint

[San Jose Bills Fan]

kyle was hurt, dareus had his issues... these are still the same guys that if healthy were projected to be a top 5 line. problem is ALL of them had issues. heck even some of their backups had issues. the number 1 thing (besides qb play) that could bounce this team back quick is having those 4 guys play to their full potential for 16 games. i dont know that we had any games with all 4 playing healthy, and it was few and far between if even 3 were healthy.

 

Yeah I'm thinking the replacement of Wanny with Pettine is gonna be a huge upgrade for the Bills.

[jtewy]

Thanks for the clarification, NoSaint. Makes more sense to me now.

 

Let's say we end up losing Spencer Johnson to a team and end up with more lost than gained. What pick do you think we'd get for Levitre? I think it would be a mid-rounder.

 

Basically, I'm hoping Johnson gets picked up by someone, as I think he's the most likely player to get signed elsewhere. I guess Morrison has a shot, and then mayyyyybe McIntyre. Kyle Moore is intriguing, but hasn't seemed to draw much interest. I would Mingus resigning him.

Edited April 9, 2013 by jtewy

[NoSaint]

Thanks for the clarification, NoSaint. Makes more sense to me now.

 

Let's say we end up losing Spencer Johnson to a team and end up with more lost than gained. What pick do you think we'd get for Levitre? I think it would be a mid-rounder.

 

Basically, I'm hoping Johnson gets picked up by someone, as I think he's the most likely player to get signed elsewhere. I guess Morrison has a shot, and then mayyyyybe McIntyre. Kyle Moore is intriguing, but hasn't seemed to draw much interest. I would Mingus resigning him.

 

Given who we have left on the market, levitre would be the guy that gets us the pick in theory. Unlikely to sign a big deal ourselves to cancel him once you start pairing off contracts - I didnt look at the general salary points this year but its likely a 3rd... Maaaaaybe a 4th.

 

I just don't think we end up there, but as I said a few times, we will see.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I would Mingus resigning him.

 

Charles Mingus?

 

That would definitely make up for the loss of Levitre.

[jtewy]

If Kyle Moore indeed is a Bear, that helps our numbers, correct? He wasn't a guy who we non-tendered if I remember correctly.

[NoSaint]

If Kyle Moore indeed is a Bear, that helps our numbers, correct? He wasn't a guy who we non-tendered if I remember correctly.

 

It should.