Would You Trade Any 3 Bills Players for Andrew Luck?

[Billsrhody]

See, I disagree with you. You might be surprised at what some of these teams might do.

 

In Baltimore, Suggs is old and will miss the season with an achilles. Rice is a diminutive running back who has high mileage. Flacco is a sub-elite quarterback.

 

In Houston, Schaub has not been offered a contract extension even though several of his teammates have been extended. The speculation is that the Texans are taking a wait-see attitude towards Schaub and don't view him as elite. Arian Foster is a great running back granted. Andre Johnson has been injury-prone in his last two seasons and might be on a steep downslope… he hasn't been the same player he was for at least two seasons.

 

In Dallas, Romo is sub-elite by most opinion, Dez Bryant has done zero in his career and Miles Austin is again hampered with hamstring problems which washed out 2011 for him. Austin is not practicing and not expected to play this preseason.

 

I think there's a good chance that all 3 teams would make this trade for Andrew Luck.

 

One team that would most certainly not is the Patriots. They would be giving up Brady, Gronkowski and (Wilfork, Mayo, Welker). They would be downgrading at QB and giving up two elite players.

[Brand J]

What will be the reaction around here if Fitz struggles mightily, or goes 7-10 for 28 yds again? (numbers before the MIN Jones TD) If he fails to generate any sort of passing game against the Steelers?

[KD in CA]

I found it actually difficult to watch Luck last night knowing how good this kid really is. The more and more I see some of the better QBs operate, the more I know the Bills are going nowhere with Fitz. My hope this year is to have meaningful games in December and anything beyond that will be some real good gravy....

 

I agree. Fitz is a caretaker, nothing more. If the Bills had had a chance at a top flight QB over the past few years they would have taken one but I think they were right to not trade the farm like the Redskins when they still had so many other holes to fill. It seems like they have done a good job filling many of them so hopefully they will have a real chance at a solid QB in the next year or two.

[Orton's Arm]

It's an interesting proposition, but my answer would still be no. What's the average length of an NFL career? I know "stars" exceed that number, but you've left out one hugely important variable and that's injury. QBs get hurt with more frequency now than ever before. Yes, Luck showed durability during his three year college career, but it's an unknown.

 

In this day and age of "win now" I don't think you can toss away a roster built to succeed on the wing and a prayer of an as-yet unproven QB. I have confidence Buddy will find Fitz's replacement over the next 2-3 seasons, while this roster is kicking ass and taking names.

 

If you were to trade the entire roster for Luck, while keeping Nix as the GM, the outcome I'd envision would be as follows:

 

Year 1: The roster would consist of players other teams didn't want, plus Andrew Luck. The Bills would be a hot destination for UDFAs, because the UDFAs would know there aren't going to be any established players in front of them. This team would go 0-16. Andrew Luck will be the third string QB to keep him from getting killed behind the horrible OL.

 

Year 2: With the first overall pick of the draft, Nix will select an elite player. He will continue to find good, solid players throughout the draft. He will add a few judicious free agent signings, and a few UDFAs will have emerged from the train wreck of year 1. Luck will start, but will not have a great year due to growing pains and an OL which is still below average. The Bills go 4-12.

 

Year 3: The Bills pick in the top 5 of the draft; giving Nix the chance to take another elite player. Nix is able to fill a large number of holes in this draft. The offensive line is better, the offensive skill players are better, the team as a whole is better. The Bills go 9-7, and miss the playoffs.

 

Year 4: Nix uses the draft to fill most of the remaining holes at starter positions, while also adding significantly to the team's depth. The Bills now have a core of elite players who are surrounded with good, solid teammates. This team goes 12-4, makes it to the conference championship, and is narrowly defeated. Fans point to a few mistakes born of inexperience which made the difference in the game.

 

Year 5: With an extra year of experience for Luck and other core players, and with a talent infusion of yet another draft, the Bills win the Super Bowl. The Bills have become the most talented and complete team in the league. The Bills will continue to be a serious threat to win more Super Bowls for the next ten years.

[BRAWNDO]

YES

[Tcali]

One team that would most certainly not is the Patriots. They would be giving up Brady, Gronkowski and (Wilfork, Mayo, Welker). They would be downgrading at QB and giving up two elite players.

The Pats most certainly would. Belicek would dump the 35 yr old Brady in a New York second.Would buy him another 10-15 yrs of SB contention.

[Boludo]

if we traded them our whole roster, they would have to cut tons of and we could just sign them all

If you were to trade the entire roster for Luck, while keeping Nix as the GM, the outcome I'd envision would be as follows:

 

Year 1: The roster would consist of players other teams didn't want, plus Andrew Luck. The Bills would be a hot destination for UDFAs, because the UDFAs would know there aren't going to be any established players in front of them. This team would go 0-16. Andrew Luck will be the third string QB to keep him from getting killed behind the horrible OL.

 

Year 2: With the first overall pick of the draft, Nix will select an elite player. He will continue to find good, solid players throughout the draft. He will add a few judicious free agent signings, and a few UDFAs will have emerged from the train wreck of year 1. Luck will start, but will not have a great year due to growing pains and an OL which is still below average. The Bills go 4-12.

 

Year 3: The Bills pick in the top 5 of the draft; giving Nix the chance to take another elite player. Nix is able to fill a large number of holes in this draft. The offensive line is better, the offensive skill players are better, the team as a whole is better. The Bills go 9-7, and miss the playoffs.

 

Year 4: Nix uses the draft to fill most of the remaining holes at starter positions, while also adding significantly to the team's depth. The Bills now have a core of elite players who are surrounded with good, solid teammates. This team goes 12-4, makes it to the conference championship, and is narrowly defeated. Fans point to a few mistakes born of inexperience which made the difference in the game.

 

Year 5: With an extra year of experience for Luck and other core players, and with a talent infusion of yet another draft, the Bills win the Super Bowl. The Bills have become the most talented and complete team in the league. The Bills will continue to be a serious threat to win more Super Bowls for the next ten years.

 

also once the colts have all our players they will have way too many on their roster and we can sign back everyone they cut so it's not like we have to sign guys off the street

 

also we would have tons to spend on free agency in the following years

[Orton's Arm]

if we traded them our whole roster, they would have to cut tons of and we could just sign them all

 

also once the colts have all our players they will have way too many on their roster and we can sign back everyone they cut so it's not like we have to sign guys off the street

 

also we would have tons to spend on free agency in the following years

Good points!

[Billsrhody]

The Pats most certainly would. Belicek would dump the 35 yr old Brady in a New York second.Would buy him another 10-15 yrs of SB contention.

 

Brady is going to play until he is 40.. why would you give up 5 years of certain superbowl contention for potential superbowl contention?

[Shoutbox]

Andrew Luck for Jake Vermiglio, Derek Session, and Nick Sukay.

[CodeMonkey]

Brady is going to play until he is 40.. why would you give up 5 years of certain superbowl contention for potential superbowl contention?

Generally no. But in this case, for Brady 2.0, yes.

[Tcali]

Brady is going to play until he is 40.. why would you give up 5 years of certain superbowl contention for potential superbowl contention?

 

He may think hes gonna play til 40. A lot of people delude themselves that they can still play at that age. The only one I ever saw with the physical skills still there at that age was Favre. Delusion.---AND----even if somehow the odds are defied---Belicek gets a QB who will soon be better than Brady anyway--very soon. And with his coaching /drafting brilliance would overcome the loss of Gronk.

[Orton's Arm]

He may think hes gonna play til 40. A lot of people delude themselves that they can still play at that age. The only one I ever saw with the physical skills still there at that age was Favre. Delusion.---AND----even if somehow the odds are defied---Belicek gets a QB who will soon be better than Brady anyway--very soon. And with his coaching /drafting brilliance would overcome the loss of Gronk.

Agreed. Jim Kelly toward the end of his career wasn't the same player he'd been in his prime. You could say the same about Dan Marino. Brett Favre's quality of play had also declined, even if you want to argue the physical skills were still there.

 

Admittedly, Brady doesn't look like he's declined thus far. But when (not if) that decline happens, it could happen fast. You might get another five years out of Brady. But maybe Brady will begin his decline in year one of that span, or year 3, or some other year. There's no way of knowing. Once that decline begins, the rest of the Patriots team will have to hold itself to a higher standard if that team is to get a Super Bowl win--a higher enough standard to make up for Brady no longer being at his peak.

 

The Patriots seem to be long-term thinkers. Witness the fact they're always eager to trade away their picks in the current draft for picks in future drafts. Trading away Brady for Luck would be a trade like that writ large. They'd have to love the chance to get 12 years younger at the QB position, while continuing to have a franchise QB. Even if you have to trade away two additional players for that, I think they'd conclude it would still be well worth it.