Hows drafting a 1st round QB looking NOW!!!

[DC Tom]

Alright fine. Lets look at 1998 draft where we have an assclown and Manning in the 1st round to be fair.

 

round:

 

1 Manning, 3

1 Leaf, 1

2 Batch, 1

3 Frost, 1

3 Quinn, 1

3 Griese, 2

6 M Hasselbeck, 2

6 John Dutton, 1

7 Moses Moreno, 1

 

On the Y axis have 3 values:

 

3= Great QB

2= Decent QB

1= Sucky QB

 

On the x axis have the round taken

 

I ranked them with the 3 values at the end of the player. BTW I threw out Frost who was drafted to be a DB not a QB.

 

Plot it out in Excel and you clearly get a downward progression as you head to later rounds.

 

Lets even do it for a QB heavy draft for the 1st round, say the McNabb draft.

 

1-Couch, 1

1- McNabb, 3

1- Smith, 1

1- McNown, 1

1- Culpepper, 3

2- King, 1

3- Huard, 1

4- Germaine, 1

4- Brooks, 2

5- Daft, 1

7- Bishop, 1

7- Griesen, 1

7- Covington, 1

 

Again an Excel plot shows a downward trend when adding a trendline.

 

That means that you are less likely to get a great or even good QB as you go lower in the rounds of the draft!

185585[/snapback]

 

And what the !@#$ is this "1,2,3" criteria you've pulled out of your ass? Try using a friggin' measurable for your Y axis. I'd suggest career QB rating...0.00 for someone who never played a down seems pretty reasonable.

 

Also...your sample sizes are WAY too small. Try recording the QBs drafted in the past 10-20 years, and see how you do.

 

And personally...I think Couch deserves a '2'; it's not his fault he's in Cleveland.

[gantrules]

huh?

185595[/snapback]

 

 

In your first post you use one year worth of data.

 

In your supporting post you use two drafts.

 

How about the last 10 years rather than picking and choosing sample sizes.

 

Because if you read my post last year half of the starting QB's in the playoffs were not first or second round draft picks.

[Oneida Lake]

That means that you are less likely to get a great or even good QB as you go lower in the rounds of the draft!

185585[/snapback]

 

Genius, pure genius.

[JP-era]

And what the !@#$ is this "1,2,3" criteria you've pulled out of your ass?  Try using a friggin' measurable for your Y axis.  I'd suggest career QB rating...0.00 for someone who never played a down seems pretty reasonable.

 

Also...your sample sizes are WAY too small.  Try recording the QBs drafted in the past 10-20 years, and see how you do. 

 

And personally...I think Couch deserves a '2'; it's not his fault he's in Cleveland.

185597[/snapback]

 

Looik I gave you 2 drafts that have stark differences. In both cases they prove my point whether you use QB rating or not. Im not willing to sit here and go through all of that, if you are go for it. How exactly would you have me figure out the QB rating? average all th years in the league? just last year? In trying to use something simple like a fairly obvious, is the guy decent, sucky, or great. I think I was more than fair here.

 

If you want to really analyze it go for it. Id be willing to wager that it still holds true!

[gantrules]

Looik I gave you 2 drafts that have stark differences. In both cases they prove my point whether you use QB rating or not. Im not willing to sit here and go through all of that, if you are go for it. How exactly would you have me figure out the QB rating? average all th years in the league? just last year? In trying to use something simple like a fairly obvious, is the guy decent, sucky, or great. I think I was more than fair here.

 

If you want to really analyze it go for it. Id be willing to wager that it still holds true!

185606[/snapback]

 

Why in the hell would we want to analyze it? It's your point so prove it when you are questioned about it.

 

You aren't using enough data.

[JP-era]

Genius, pure genius.

185604[/snapback]

 

 

Obvious to you and I but not so obvious to assclowns that argue that we can and will win a SB with the next Warner or Garcia at the helm. Its so obvious its stupid but apparently, whne smoking serious amounts of Stadiumwall, obvious goes out the window!

[gantrules]

Then once again why is it that 6/12 of the QB's in last years playoffs wer not 1st or 2nd round draft picks? Please answer.

 

Why not compare another skill position like WR's or RB's and see if it makes a difference where they were drafted and where their team ended up.

[DC Tom]

Obvious to you and I but not so obvious to assclowns that argue that we can and will win a SB with the next Warner or Garcia at the helm. Its so obvious its stupid but apparently, whne smoking serious amounts of Stadiumwall, obvious goes out the window!

185612[/snapback]

 

 

 

So now the comparison is Superbowl wins vs. round of draft?

 

I'll tell you what...why don't you take a step back for an hour or two, relax, have a drink, get your thoughts in order, and figure out what it is you're actually trying to say. When you've finally got it clear in your mind what your point actually is, come back and share it with us. Don't worry, we'll wait.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Hey JP-era, sorry for the delay but the frolic of the holidays and doing a little work (just a little) during this lull week kept me away from TSW.

 

On the contrary, I do not see the recent events as undercutting my arguments at all. This is partially because you misinterpret my argument and partially because this season isn't over yet.

 

To state it again s l o w l y. I argue this. Drafting a QB in the 1st round has a lousy record of helping the team which drafted him win or even get to the Super Bowl. The recent events which still uphold this argument is that the last team to draft a QB in the 1st round who brought that team to an SB win was Dallas picking Troy Aikman with the first pick in 1989. In fact the last team to even make the SB with the leadership of their first round choice was when McNair led the Titans there in 1999.

 

The most recent occurences were 6th round pick Brady leading NE to a win last year and him facinf UDFA Jake Delhomme. No stomach turning recent events yet for this argument.

 

Perhaps the best case to be made for drafting a QB in the first round delivering for the team which drafted him is actually none other than our own Drew Bledsoe who did in real life win a must-win game for NE in their 2001 SB winning run. Thought this is important. i still think that most people view that team as Brady's team and a 6th round pick for them was not the only thing at QB they needed but by far he was the best thing for them at QB that year.

 

I am not arguing that 1st round or 1stday picks at QB suck in all case. However, I am arguing that based on the real world record, a team need not draft a QB in the first and pay him the resulting slotted amount, because 1st rounders like Dilfer and highly rated QBs like Farve will be available to teams on the open market. They can have their first rounder and eat it to by negotiating a cap friendly deal so it does not seem to pay to draft a first rounder and make it more difficult if not impossible to build a team capable of making it to or winning the SB around them,

 

If you disagree with this then name the QBs that teams have drafted in the 1st round who brought the team to the SB in the last 10 or so years or that won an SB for the team which drafted him (that sound you hear is crickets).

 

Now, i think it is worthwhile and fun to consider the current situation. Actually, I was pretty sure when last year's playoffs began that finally in the 2004 playoffs we would see a team led by their 1st round QB pick in the SB. Amazingly, I was wrong in figuring that last year was the year. The NFL stayed pretty true to the form of the last ten years that for all the ballyhoo of 1st round QB choices they make up only 1 out of 4 of playoff teams. Last year of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, only Indy with Manning, Phlly with McNabb, and TN with McNair were in the playoffs. As the playoffs went on, McNair went down but it looked to me like Indy and most likely Philly going to achieve the goal of playing in the last game that all NFL teams are shooting for. Despite making up a clear minority of the teams, 1st round draft picks had survived to command 2 of the 4 final positions.

 

Yet, the rule won out again as the cap consraints (which McNabb's salary are a large part of) left Philly with receivers who got tatooed by the Panthers led by a UDFA QB and Indy cap strapped so that their defense can't stop people in big games were further limited by the refs allowing NEs DBs to neutralize the potent Manning led offense and once again a 1st round drafted QB failed to deliver an SB berth for the team which drafted him.

 

This year, I had once again made the judgment that this would likely be the year for a 1st rounc selection to break the jinx for the team which picked him.

 

However, this is how I see it subject to change this last weekend

 

AFC- my playoff guesses

NE- QB'ed by a 6th roud pick

Pitt- 1st rounder

Indy- 1st rounder

SD 2nd rounder

Denver 2nd rounder by another team

Bills 1st rounder by another team

 

NFC

Philly- 1st rounder

AT- 1st rounder

GB- 2nd rounder by another team

Seattle- 6th rounder

Minnesota- 1st rounder

Carolina or STL- UDFA or 6th rounder

 

This will truly be a landmark year for highly drafted QBs because they should makeup 50% of the playoff teams rather than the typical 25%. Even at 50% I still think this goes against the conventional wisdom that a team must draft a star QB or they are toast. Half the teams are going to get in using some other method. This is not surprising actually as all the other methods represent the field, but it does run against the conventional wisdom which has been fostered by the NFL marketing individuals rather than teams (which really win games), by the QB Club marketing machine and by the extraordinary QB draft of 1983.

 

The ironies are that:

 

1. If the 1/2 of playoffs teams led by a highly touted QB they drafted wins or even makes the SB they will actually only be the exception that was a long time coming it will take a couple of years of winning performance by these QBs against the real world constraints of the cap to reallty set a new precedent.

2. The recent injury to Terrell Owens and the likelihood of cap constraints on Indy once again coming back to haunt them if they play on the road in bad weather may once again denty the two best QBs in the league an SB appearance.

3. Drew Brees may end up being textbook example ofthe follies of high round QB investment as the Chargers made the playoffs without any help whatsoever from their huge 1st round investment in Rivers and a QB capable of delivering SD to the playoffs at least is going to available on the market next year.

 

So again, these results not only do not fly in the face yet of my arguments and actually have a 50/50 shot of confirming them yet again. Even if this year's occurence undermines the argument, it will be the first time a 1st round or high pick delivered an SB berth for the team which picked him it will still be arguably the exception which proves thre rule. Finally, my stomach is far from churning as I would love to see a goodgame and any good games (as long as the Bills ultimately win). Perhaps the most humorous thing about the Wall is how many folks seem to see their arguments as being somehow a measurement of them as people. The important thing to me here is entertainment and not winning or losing arguments which do not make any difference anyway because its only the internet.

 

Consider this:

 

NYJ- Pennington- 1st round

Buff- Bledsoe- 1st round, Losman- 1st round

Pitt- Rothlisberger- 1st round

Ind- Manning- 1st round

Jax- Leftwich- 1st round

SD- Brees- 1st pick of 2nd round

Denv- Plummer 2nd round

Phil- McNabb- 1st round

GB- Favre - 2nd round

Minn- Culpepper- 1st round

Atl- Vick- 1st round

Car- Delhomme- undrafted

NO- Brooks- 4th round

Sea- Hasselbeck- 6th round

STL- Bulger- 6th round

 

NE- Brady- 6th round

 

So, that crap about bringing in some undrafted or late round clown who can get you to the playoffs and win is starting to look like hogwash!

 

Theres a reason why I put NE at the bottom.

 

How did undrafted Garcia do when he went to Clev? How about undrafted Warner when he went to NYG? Undrafted QB's seem to REQUIRE a GREAT supporting cast! Bulger, and Hasselbeck would SUCK on a team without a great supporting cast.

 

BTW, NE is on the bottom because I KNOW Brady would suck BIGTIME for any other team!

 

God Bless TD and drafting JP!

185045[/snapback]

[gantrules]

  Don't worry, we'll wait.

185622[/snapback]

 

Patience is a virtue, right JP?

[JP-era]

Then once again why is it that 6/12 of the QB's in last years playoffs wer not 1st or 2nd round draft picks? Please answer.

 

Why not compare another skill position like WR's or RB's and see if it makes a difference where they were drafted and where their team ended up.

185615[/snapback]

 

 

Why again are we setting aside the premise of the original post? That THIS year the majority of teams in the playoffs or in contention have 1st round QB's?

 

Last year vs. this year, no idea. Again the premise is that the notion of not needing a 1st round QB to goto the playoffs or beyond is not realistic. The truth is that you have a BETTER chance with a 1st round QB. Thats all I was ever trying to say. Our chances of getting to and getting deep in the playoffs or in the SB are BETTER with a 1st round QB at the helm.

 

Why am I picturing myself dragging a dead, and heavily kicked, horse to water to try and make it drink?

 

Forget it guys...Its just not worth it.

[Oneida Lake]

Obvious to you and I but not so obvious to assclowns that argue that we can and will win a SB with the next Warner or Garcia at the helm. Its so obvious its stupid but apparently, whne smoking serious amounts of Stadiumwall, obvious goes out the window!

185612[/snapback]

 

But your comparison was a #1 (Bledsoe) to a Garcia/Warner. You nullify you're own supposition.

 

You've been B word-slapped by DC on the subjectiivity of your data and the dearth of meaningful

representation, and your final thesis is that ... better quarterbacks come out of earlier rounds?

 

Thank goodness. Send that information to the NFL as I'm sure they were considering doing away with the draft.

[DC Tom]

Why again are we setting aside the premise of the original post?

185629[/snapback]

 

 

It had a premise? Why spoil it with a premise?

[gantrules]

Why again are we setting aside the premise of the original post? That THIS year the majority of teams in the playoffs or in contention have 1st round QB's?

 

Last year vs. this year, no idea. Again the premise is that the notion of not needing a 1st round QB to goto the playoffs or beyond is not realistic. The truth is that you have a BETTER chance with a 1st round QB. Thats all I was ever trying to say. Our chances of getting to and getting deep in the playoffs or in the SB are BETTER with a 1st round QB at the helm.

 

Why am I picturing myself dragging a dead, and heavily kicked, horse to water to try and make it drink?

 

Forget it guys...Its just not worth it.   

185629[/snapback]

 

 

Because this year doesn't exist in a vaccum! I don't know how you can look at one year of the NFL and prove your point! The NFL has been basically the same for the last 10 years, so I want to know what the data for the last 10 years says prior to taking your word. That's all.

 

You brought this on yourself by nagging on people to prove you wrong.

[boomerjamhead]

Thank goodness.  Send that information to the NFL as I'm sure they were considering doing away with the draft.

185640[/snapback]

 

I've always thought an auction format would be cool.

[GG]

Dont forget Joey Harrington!

185389[/snapback]

 

 

Ohh oh, I hear a song coming on.

 

"They say we're young and we don't know..."

[JP-era]

Hey JP-era, sorry for the delay but the frolic of the holidays and doing a little work (just a little) during this lull week kept me away from TSW. 

 

On the contrary, I do not see the recent events as undercutting my arguments at all.  This is partially because you misinterpret my argument and partially because this season isn't over yet.

 

To state it again s l o w l y.  I argue this.  Drafting a QB in the 1st round has a lousy record of helping the team which drafted him win or even get to the Super Bowl.  The recent events which still uphold this argument is that the last team to draft a QB in the 1st round who brought that team to an SB win was Dallas picking Troy Aikman with the first pick in 1989.  In fact the last team to even make the SB with the leadership of their first round choice was when McNair led the Titans there in 1999.

 

The most recent occurences were 6th round pick Brady leading NE to a win last year and him facinf UDFA Jake Delhomme.  No stomach turning recent events yet for this argument.

 

Perhaps the best case to be made for drafting a QB in the first round delivering for the team which drafted him is actually none other than our own Drew Bledsoe who did in real life win a must-win game for NE in their 2001 SB winning run.  Thought this is important. i still think that most people view that team as Brady's team and a 6th round pick for them was not the only thing at QB they needed but by far he was the best thing for them at QB that year.

 

I am not arguing that 1st round or 1stday picks at QB suck in all case.  However, I am arguing that based on the real world record, a team need not draft a QB in the first and pay him the resulting slotted amount, because 1st rounders like Dilfer and highly rated QBs like Farve will be available to teams on the open market.  They can have their first rounder and eat it to by negotiating a cap friendly deal so it does not seem to pay to draft a first rounder and make it more difficult if not impossible to build a team capable of making it to or winning the SB around them,

 

If you disagree with this then name the QBs that teams have drafted in the 1st round who brought the team to the SB in the last 10 or so years or that won an SB for the team which drafted him (that sound you hear is crickets).

 

Now, i think it is worthwhile and fun to consider the current situation.  Actually, I was pretty sure when last year's playoffs began that finally in the 2004 playoffs we would see a team led by their 1st round QB pick in the SB.  Amazingly, I was wrong in figuring that last year was the year.  The NFL stayed pretty true to the form of the last ten years that for all the ballyhoo of 1st round QB choices they make up only 1 out of 4 of playoff teams.  Last year of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, only Indy with Manning, Phlly with McNabb,  and TN with McNair were in the playoffs.  As the playoffs went on, McNair went down but it looked to me like Indy and most likely Philly going to achieve the goal of playing in the last game that all NFL teams are shooting for.  Despite making up a clear minority of the teams, 1st round draft picks had survived to command 2 of the 4 final positions.

 

Yet, the rule won out again as the cap consraints (which McNabb's salary are a large part of) left Philly with receivers who got tatooed by the Panthers led by a UDFA QB and Indy cap strapped so that their defense can't stop people in big games were further limited by the refs allowing NEs DBs to neutralize the potent Manning led offense and once again a 1st round drafted QB failed to deliver an SB berth for the team which drafted him.

 

This year, I had once again made the judgment that this would likely be the year for a 1st rounc selection to break the jinx for the team which picked him.

 

However, this is how I see it subject to change this last weekend

 

AFC- my playoff guesses

NE- QB'ed by a 6th roud pick

Pitt- 1st rounder

Indy- 1st rounder

SD 2nd rounder

Denver 2nd rounder by another team

Bills 1st rounder by another team

 

NFC

Philly- 1st rounder

AT- 1st rounder

GB- 2nd rounder by another team

Seattle- 6th rounder

Minnesota- 1st rounder

Carolina or STL- UDFA or 6th rounder

 

This will truly be a landmark year for highly drafted QBs because they should makeup 50% of the playoff teams rather than the typical 25%.  Even at 50% I still think this goes against the conventional wisdom that a team must draft a star QB or they are toast.  Half the teams are going to get in using some other method.  This is not surprising actually as all the other methods represent the field, but it does run against the conventional wisdom which has been fostered by the NFL marketing individuals rather than teams (which really win games), by the QB Club marketing machine and by the extraordinary QB draft of 1983.

 

The ironies are that:

 

1. If the 1/2 of playoffs teams led by a highly touted QB they drafted wins or even makes the SB they will actually only be the exception that was a long time coming it will take a couple of years of winning performance by these QBs against the real world constraints of the cap to reallty set a new precedent.

2. The recent injury to Terrell Owens and the likelihood of cap constraints on Indy once again coming back to haunt them if they play on the road in bad weather may once again denty the two best QBs in the league an SB appearance.

3. Drew Brees may end up being textbook example ofthe follies of high round QB investment as the Chargers made the playoffs without any help whatsoever from their huge 1st round investment in Rivers and a QB capable of delivering SD to the playoffs at least is going to available on the market next year.

 

So again, these results not only do not fly in the face yet of my arguments and actually have a 50/50 shot of confirming them yet again.  Even if this year's occurence undermines the argument, it will be the first time a 1st round or high pick delivered an SB berth for the team which picked him it will still be arguably the exception which proves thre rule. Finally, my stomach is far from churning as I would love to see a goodgame and any good games (as long as the Bills ultimately win).  Perhaps the most humorous thing about the Wall is how many folks seem to see their arguments as being somehow a measurement of them as people. The important thing to me here is entertainment and not winning or losing arguments which do not make any difference anyway because its only the internet.

185627[/snapback]

 

Thanks for a well thought out response. Its refreshing to get something other than, "Im too dumb to understand what your saying", or "you suck" as a post.

 

I cant deny the Tom Bradys and wont try. I simply feel strongly that Brady is an example of a guy who is ONLY decent because of his supporting cast. Garcia and Warner, both of which you USED to use as examples, prove to me that when these guys go to a not-so-good team they stink! Yet, McNabb and to some degree Peyton have put there teams in the playoffs REGARDLESS of supporting cast. Add in the addition of TO, yes now injured and a team to watch to prove our points, and the Eagle WITH a decent supporting cast and WITH a great 1st round QB are considered by many to be the team to beat in ALL the NFL!

 

I buy your arguements and have always seen the reasoning behind them but I cant get over the "Murphys Law" that seems to follow this team. This year we are 1 game away from ending our curse IMO. If we beat Pitt and either NYJ or Denv lose, we are in and have comeback and gotten in DESPITE the controversy. If we lose or dont get in, I could argue that we have only HURT our future, "In the more typical Bills Murphys Law fashion" by denying our future QB the palying time he so desperately needs. IT gets worse. The Bills front office is more likely to continue to start Drew even if we dont get to the playoffs because we remained in the hunt for so long, had new coaches which led to the 0-4 start, blah, blah. Prolonging the pain rather than starting over at QB seems to be worse to me.

 

Thats where I stand. I really believe that this is the year that BOTH the SB QB's are 1st rounders. McNabb and Bledsoe , no more likely McNabb and Manning!

[Mickey]

29 of the last 60 teams participating in the last 30 Super Bowls were quarterbacked by first round draft choices. A number of others were headed by second roung picks like Favre, Esiason, Jaworski and Stabler. There are also a few notable third round picks like Montana, Ken Anderson, Chandler and Hostetler.

Staubach is an interesting case, he wasn't drafted until the 10th round but he had a Naval committment and couldn't play for a number of years which pushed him down the draft boards. Otherwise, he might have been selected in the first round. He played in 3 SB's which would push the total to 32.

 

Basically, if your team is in the SB, odds are they are being run by a QB taken in the first round of the NFL draft, more so by far than QB's taken in anyother round.

 

Lots of crappy QB's have been taken in lots of rounds. However, if you want to get in to a SB, you would do well to take a chance on a QB in the first round when you think the right player is there.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Thanks for a well thought out response. Its refreshing to get something other than, "Im too dumb to understand what your saying", or "you suck" as a post.

 

I cant deny the Tom Bradys and wont try. I simply feel strongly that Brady is an example of a guy who is ONLY decent because of his supporting cast. Garcia and Warner, both of which you USED to use as examples, prove to me that when these guys go to a not-so-good team they stink! Yet, McNabb and to some degree Peyton have put there teams in the playoffs REGARDLESS of supporting cast. Add in the addition of TO, yes now injured and a team to watch to prove our points, and the Eagle WITH a decent supporting cast and WITH a great 1st round QB are considered by many to be the team to beat in ALL the NFL!

 

I buy your arguements and have always seen the reasoning behind them but I cant get over the "Murphys Law" that seems to follow this team. This year we are 1 game away from ending our curse IMO. If we beat Pitt and either NYJ or Denv lose, we are in and have comeback and gotten in DESPITE the controversy. If we lose or dont get in, I could argue that we have only HURT our future, "In the more typical Bills Murphys Law fashion" by denying our future QB the palying time he so desperately needs. IT gets worse. The Bills front office is more likely to continue to start Drew even if we dont get to the playoffs because we remained in the hunt for so long, had new coaches which led to the 0-4 start, blah, blah. Prolonging the pain rather than starting over at QB seems to be worse to me.

 

Thats where I stand. I really believe that this is the year that BOTH the SB QB's are 1st rounders. McNabb and Bledsoe  , no more likely McNabb and Manning!

185654[/snapback]

 

 

Thanks also for your thoughtful response (even I have trouble reading my too-lengthy blather and appreciate those who wade through my thinking our loud).

 

I think the key points once you get through all the considerations is that I agree with you fully that the supporting cast cast is key and the difficulty with spending a a big draft pick on a QB is that the huge contract these players get constrains a team's ability to build a good/great supporting cast around them.

 

I don't argue that Manning and McNabb are bad QBs, I think they are the two best in the league. I argue that the cap constraints imposed by resigning (and resigning again) Manning has made it impossible for Indy to invest in a D capable of even getting them homefield advantage and capable to this point of delivering many playoff wins with Manning (he finally roared ahead of Ryan Leaf in playoff wins for the team which drafted him last year). In addition, the thing I am most impressed about with Philly is that even with the cap constraints imposed on building a team by resigning McNabb to a huge deal the market merited him making they steal had the sklls and the moxie to sign TO to overcome the cap constrsint which left them receivers not good enough to make the plays to get them to the SB last year.

 

I think the unfortunate thing for Indy and Philly this year is that once again I guess it will prove to be the case that the cap constraints which will likely force Indy's road to the SB to go through likely non-passing game weather in NE or Pittsburgh, and Philly to now rely on the low-budget back-up Pinkston due to the injury to Owens will once again make these two teams' investments in 1st round choices of the two best QBs in the game fail to payoff with a place in the SB.

 

As far as the Bills having sacrificed the future by not developin JP this year, its possible but I doubt it actually.

 

First, what the examples of QBs like Brady, Pennington and Vick demonstrate is that it is possible for a QB o be a winner (in terms of making the playoffs) and even win the SB without having started any (or many games in Vicks extraordinary case) . ICE is right that playing is the only way that a QB can learn how to be a true NFL player, but he is flat out wrong if he thinks that starting is the only way you can play. I think JP learns and is benefiting from his mop-up duty. I think pre-season games are real competition against players with NFL speed and running NFL plays. I think that their is valuable off field things which JP specifically needs to focus on in terms of ironing out any mechanical problems in repetitive practice sessions and learning NFL offense and defenses by studying the books, studying film and most important taking the singular opportunity his injury gave him to sit in the the booth and download the Wyche wisdom which ALSO are essential parts of his development.

 

I do not see JP being foced to follow the Tom Brady schedule (at the point where Brady took over an SB winner JP will have had more PT and experience) or the Chad Pennington schedule (which JP is ahead of right now) as condemning him to failure.

 

In fact, I have seen far too many examples of players being rushed along in the Todd Collins development schedule or the ongoing failures of Joey Harrington playing for a bad team that I am quite comfortable if fate forces us to go to the playoffs with JP sitting on bench and building up a sweat fending off women who would love to sleep with anyone on a playoff or (dare I say it) SB team.

 

If JP is good enough to merit going through growing pains and losing watching him play now, I would guess he should also be good enough to have to go through less losing and fewer growing pains as a vet who steps to the fore in his second or third year than depend upon him pulling another RoboQB.

 

The best thing about his situation as far as my read is that by making him the Bills second choice in the draft they used to acquire him we actually held down his salary a little bit allowing us to build a team and acquire a great WR for him to throw to in Evans.

 

I see the JP situation as only positive for the Bills right now.

[JP-era]

Thanks also for your thoughtful response (even I have trouble reading my too-lengthy blather and appreciate those who wade through my thinking our loud).

 

I think the key points once you get through all the considerations is that I agree with you fully that the supporting cast cast is key and the difficulty with spending a a big draft pick on a QB is that the huge contract these players get constrains a team's ability to build a good/great supporting cast around them.

 

I don't argue that Manning and McNabb are bad QBs, I think they are the two best in the league.  I argue that the cap constraints imposed by resigning (and resigning again) Manning has made it impossible for Indy to invest in a D capable of even getting them homefield advantage and capable to this point of delivering many playoff wins with Manning (he finally roared ahead of Ryan Leaf in playoff wins for the team which drafted him last year).  In addition, the thing I am most impressed about with Philly is that even with the cap constraints imposed on building a team by resigning McNabb to a huge deal the market merited him making they steal had the sklls and the moxie to sign TO to overcome the cap constrsint which left them receivers not good enough to make the plays to get them to the SB last year.

 

I think the unfortunate thing for Indy and Philly this year is that once again I guess it will prove to be the case that the cap constraints which will likely force Indy's road to the SB to go through likely non-passing game weather in NE or Pittsburgh, and Philly to now rely on the low-budget back-up Pinkston due to the injury to Owens will once again make these two teams' investments in 1st round choices of the two best QBs in the game fail to payoff with a place in the SB.

 

As far as the Bills having sacrificed the future by not developin JP this year, its possible but I doubt it actually.

 

First, what the examples of QBs like Brady, Pennington and Vick demonstrate is that it is possible for a QB o be a winner (in terms of making the playoffs) and even win the SB without having started any (or many games in Vicks extraordinary case) .  ICE is right that playing is the only way that a QB can learn how to be a true NFL player, but he is flat out wrong if he thinks that starting is the only way you can play.  I think JP learns and is benefiting from his mop-up duty. I think pre-season games are real competition against players with NFL speed and running NFL plays.  I think that their is valuable off field things which JP specifically needs to focus on in terms of ironing out any mechanical problems in repetitive practice sessions and learning NFL offense and defenses by studying the books, studying film and most important taking the singular opportunity his injury gave him to sit in the the booth and download the Wyche wisdom which ALSO are essential parts of his development.

 

I do not see JP being foced to follow the Tom Brady schedule (at the point where Brady took over an SB winner JP will have had more PT and experience) or the Chad Pennington schedule (which JP is ahead of right now) as condemning him to failure.

 

In fact, I have seen far too many examples of players being rushed along in the Todd Collins development schedule or the ongoing failures of Joey Harrington playing for a bad team that I am quite comfortable if fate forces us to go to the playoffs with JP sitting on bench and building up a sweat fending off women who would love to sleep with anyone on a playoff or (dare I say it) SB team.

 

If JP is good enough to merit going through growing pains and losing watching him play now, I would guess he should also be good enough to have to go through less losing and fewer growing pains as a vet who steps to the fore in his second or third year than depend upon him pulling another RoboQB.

 

The best thing about his situation as far as my read is that by making him the Bills second choice in the draft they used to acquire him we actually held down his salary a little bit allowing us to build a team and acquire a great WR for him to throw to in Evans. 

 

I see the JP situation as only positive for the Bills right now.

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Your point on Indy is valid as far as the cap goes. I, as the GM, would not have signed Harrison to all that money and bet set to franchise James, after re-signing Peyton to all that coin. Peyton has proven that he spreads the ball around and would most likely have 2 1000+ yard WR's in Stokely and Wayne if Harrison left. Or, if James was the odd man out, I would have grabbed a RB in the draft or even traded a 2nd for Henry who would be close to as good as James and then spend my 1st on D. With 1 of the trifecta gone ( Harrison or James), the Dolts would have enough coin for 2 quality young vets to help there D. LB would be my first pick where they should never have let Peterson go anywhere. Id sign say a Kendrell Bell and then a Andre Dyson in the secondary. Just my guess.

 

Philly made the better choice and is now in much better shape to go to the SB. Philly picked up a stud #1 and then added a stud to the D, rather than Indy stacking their O and trying to win every point race. I see your point in tying up that much cap cash in a QB. If it were ANY other position I would agree. But the QB handles the ball on EVERY offensive down and has to make a quality throw on EVERY passing play. My logic says that you HAVE to HAVE a good one to do well. Especially when your the Bills and we seem to screw things up so much!