Nawrocki's "Fit-Based Mock"

[KOKBILLS]

Not a fan of him at all.

 

Interesting that a few talking heads are flaming Glenn now, after his profile's risen in the weeks after his solid combine showing...after all, the only insight they usually have is what's whispered in their ear by their NFL sources (who'd never try to put out disinformation on a guy ).

 

I hear ya...

 

It's not like Lombardi and Casserly have not watched Film, or don't now...I get the feeling they both do a bit...Casserly more than Lombardi...Of course Mayock watches more than both of them combined, and he came out against Glenn yesterday...So...Like I said, I'm surprised because the Kid looks awfully good to me in the Games I watched...I still have no problem with Glenn...I think his upside is as good as any of these O-Linemen not named Kalil...We'll see I guess...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I hear Ya!

 

But 2 more talking heads on NFL.com lined up against Glenn today...Lombardi and Casserly both said Glenn should be the last one chosen between Adams, Konz, and Glenn...AFTER the C!!! Both Lombardi and Casserly said Glenn does not have the feet to play LT...Lombardi flat out said he's not a LT, and may not be a RT...Then he said he's may not even be a great G!!! I mean...They were KILLING Cordy Glenn...The day after Mayock KILLED Cordy Glenn...I know what I see with my own 2 eyes...And I LOVE Glenn...I REALLY don't like Reiff, and they ALL seem to feel Reiff should be the 2nd O-Lineman taken...Lombardi and Casserly both say Reiff may not be a LT, but they would make him prove it...

 

I do understand Glenn may have been a little heavy last year, and he does look a little awkward at times...He's not a natural knee bender...I get that...But even with that he's just a mauler, and makes it look easy...When Glenn gets the Coaching and Conditioning he needs, I think his upside is light years ahead of Reiff...But no question...I'm questioning myself now...

 

I don't know what to think anymore...

I'm with you 100%.

 

It's hard to say that you vehemently think that three guys who do this professionally are wrong and you are right, but I couldn't disagree with them more about both Glenn and Reiff.

 

 

[sharebear]

I see him as a guard, or at most right tackle.. why not just pick descastro if your not certin he will start at LT? If thats all your getting might as well get the best one right? Honestly.. I like massie better than glenn, if we could get floyd in the first and massie in the 2nd(doubtful i know but still) that would be awesome

[Lurker]

I'm with you 100%.

 

It's hard to say that you vehemently think that three guys who do this professionally are wrong and you are right, but I couldn't disagree with them more about both Glenn and Reiff.

I wonder how many of these guys (even the upper echelon NFL.com and ESPN talking heads) watch actual game tapes--not 2 minute Youtube complilations. I respect Mayock because I suspect he does, but there's no way some of these other guys do, simply because of time constraints.

 

From the games I watched, Glenn has plenty of mobility in pass pro and was a beast on running plays. I guess we'll find out on the 26th...

[rstencel]

I wonder how many of these guys (even the upper echelon NFL.com and ESPN talking heads) watch actual game tapes--not 2 minute Youtube complilations. I respect Mayock because I suspect he does, but there's no way some of these other guys do, simply because of time constraints.

 

From the games I watched, Glenn has plenty of mobility in pass pro and was a beast on running plays. I guess we'll find out on the 26th...

 

 

No they have interns that do the research for them, but do they take time to read it all.

[Lurker]

No they have interns that do the research for them, but do they take time to read it all.

Read? That sounds like the Tom Donahoe approach to player evaluation...

[KOKBILLS]

I see him as a guard, or at most right tackle.. why not just pick descastro if your not certin he will start at LT? If thats all your getting might as well get the best one right? Honestly.. I like massie better than glenn, if we could get floyd in the first and massie in the 2nd(doubtful i know but still) that would be awesome

 

Well...I know one thing...IF The Bills pick Glenn at #10 they will be 100% sure he can play LT in their Offense...If they are not sure, they won't pick Glenn...

 

I'm interested though...Do you see him as only an NFL Guard based on his play at LT as a Sr?...Because I find it hard to believe anyone can watch that LSU tape and feel Glenn does not have a shot to play LT in the NFL...I mean...How does a guy get voted 1st Team All-SEC as a LT, by the Coaches and the AP, and he has no chance at playing LT in the NFL? It really does not make sense to me at all...And I admit I could be wrong...But still...

 

I'm looking at Glenn like this...He's huge...He has long arms and excellent strength...He can be a mauler...He's just a really big dude who can move (5.15 40 at Indy)...In fact some Scouts have commented on how amazingly well Glenn does on the second level for a man his size...He can get out there...Now...I know some don't feel he has the feet to be an NFL LT...But he certainly had the ability in College...He played at around 340 as a Sr and weight 345 at the Combine...Admittedly, I think that's a little heavy and it's my opinion that is what kept him from dominating at LT the way he did at OG when he was younger and lighter...He'll have to slim down a bit...With that should come added quickness because Glenn IS athletic...I think there are things that are coach-able, and train-able that give Glenn a bit more upside than most OT's in this Draft...Certainly more than Reiff, Adams, or Martin...Glenn is battle tested and never missed a start due to injury in 4 years....The Kid started 50 Games in College...I think he's being over-scouted the same way Chris Hairston was...I think he has big-time upside...

 

And Massie? Better than Glenn? I know he's been flying up some boards, but you know he never played LT right?...I don't see it...I'd MUCH rather have Glenn's upside...We'll see though...There are some massive differences in Scouting Reports out there...The National Football Post has Massie as the 177th overall Prospect...But he is rated between a 2nd and 3rd Round Prospect on most boards...

[Kelly the Dog]

Well...I know one thing...IF The Bills pick Glenn at #10 they will be 100% sure he can play LT in their Offense...If they are not sure, they won't pick Glenn...

 

I'm interested though...Do you see him as only an NFL Guard based on his play at LT as a Sr?...Because I find it hard to believe anyone can watch that LSU tape and feel Glenn does not have a shot to play LT in the NFL...I mean...How does a guy get voted 1st Team All-SEC as a LT, by the Coaches and the AP, and he has no chance at playing LT in the NFL? It really does not make sense to me at all...And I admit I could be wrong...But still...

 

I'm looking at Glenn like this...He's huge...He has long arms and excellent strength...He can be a mauler...He's just a really big dude who can move (5.15 40 at Indy)...In fact some Scouts have commented on how amazingly well Glenn does on the second level for a man his size...He can get out there...Now...I know some don't feel he has the feet to be an NFL LT...But he certainly had the ability in College...He played at around 340 as a Sr and weight 345 at the Combine...Admittedly, I think that's a little heavy and it's my opinion that is what kept him from dominating at LT the way he did at OG when he was younger and lighter...He'll have to slim down a bit...With that should come added quickness because Glenn IS athletic...I think there are things that are coach-able, and train-able that give Glenn a bit more upside than most OT's in this Draft...Certainly more than Reiff, Adams, or Martin...Glenn is battle tested and never missed a start due to injury in 4 years....The Kid started 50 Games in College...I think he's being over-scouted the same way Chris Hairston was...I think he has big-time upside...

 

And Massie? Better than Glenn? I know he's been flying up some boards, but you know he never played LT right?...I don't see it...I'd MUCH rather have Glenn's upside...We'll see though...There are some massive differences in Scouting Reports out there...The National Football Post has Massie as the 177th overall Prospect...But he is rated between a 2nd and 3rd Round Prospect on most boards...

There is a famous quote in Hollywood about the people in charge of the industry by William Goldman, the screenwriter of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, which states, "No one knows anything."

 

The quote very much applies to even the best in the business of drafting. EVERYTHING is projection. In each draft there are no sure things at all, and may be 3-4 near sure things at best, and they aren't even the first 3-4 picks. Not one of these college players have ever played in anything close to an NFL game. College to the pros literally a boy's game to men's game escalation, and every one of the players has to learn the game over again. No one knows how these guys are going to react to the complexity, intensity, intellectual responsibilities, money they are making, competition, going from BMOC to rookie needing to prove himself, etc, etc, etc.

 

When guys look at film or see a college player in person they can only guess, at best, whether the agility, quickness, lightness, etc is going to translate. Often times, a player who best adapts to the NFL is the one who can learn and grow and change, not the one that can play the same dominant way he did in college. All it is is guesswork and if you're a GREAT evaluator, you are right about a guy less than 50% of the time.

 

So when you, who seem like a very astute fan and follower of college players, or Mayock, or Dilfer or Russ Lande or Rich Gosselin or Buddy Nix or Ozzie Newsome (who I think is the very best) look at Cordy Glenn's footwork and IMAGINE if he is going to be able to handle NFL DL on a consistently good or great basis, no one knows anything. It's just a guess. And some guys guess a little more correctly than other guys, but if you look at their overall ratings of all the players on their boards five years down the line, if they were right about one out of three, they are the very best in the business.

[rstencel]

I'm with you 100%.

 

It's hard to say that you vehemently think that three guys who do this professionally are wrong and you are right, but I couldn't disagree with them more about both Glenn and Reiff.

 

 

My biggest fear on Glenn is so many are questioning his desire or passion for the game. Afraid he may turn into another Mike Williams and not really put effort in requires to be good at next level.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

My biggest fear on Glenn is so many are questioning his desire or passion for the game. Afraid he may turn into another Mike Williams and not really put effort in requires to be good at next level.

Really?

 

I try not to read scouting reports so I didn't know anyone was questioning his desire or passion.

 

I know he was selected as a team captain. I know he is the all-time leader in games started at Georgia.

 

I know he went before the NFL Advisory Committee after his junior year and was not given encouraging feedback as to his draft status, so he returned for his senior year, improved steadily throughout the season and made All SEC.

 

None of those things proves anything of course but I didn't see a lazy player when I watched the videotape of him.

 

 

[sllib olaffub]

I've heard and read a ton about LT's in these posts and online, and on television. I know we're going to take a LT, and we're going to take one early. I know we're going to get a WR or two.

 

What I'm interested more in is who are the Bills going to be zeroing in on at LB? There will be at least 2 linebackers added, as well, and I would really like to know who the favorites are for that lot after the 2nd round. Are there many diamond in the roughs out there? Who is the next terror at the linebacker position to wear a Bills uniform? Because, man, I miss having a dominant LB to watch making plays out there!

 

There is a famous quote in Hollywood about the people in charge of the industry by William Goldman, the screenwriter of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, which states, "No one knows anything."

 

The quote very much applies to even the best in the business of drafting. EVERYTHING is projection. In each draft there are no sure things at all, and may be 3-4 near sure things at best, and they aren't even the first 3-4 picks. Not one of these college players have ever played in anything close to an NFL game. College to the pros literally a boy's game to men's game escalation, and every one of the players has to learn the game over again. No one knows how these guys are going to react to the complexity, intensity, intellectual responsibilities, money they are making, competition, going from BMOC to rookie needing to prove himself, etc, etc, etc.

 

When guys look at film or see a college player in person they can only guess, at best, whether the agility, quickness, lightness, etc is going to translate. Often times, a player who best adapts to the NFL is the one who can learn and grow and change, not the one that can play the same dominant way he did in college. All it is is guesswork and if you're a GREAT evaluator, you are right about a guy less than 50% of the time.

 

So when you, who seem like a very astute fan and follower of college players, or Mayock, or Dilfer or Russ Lande or Rich Gosselin or Buddy Nix or Ozzie Newsome (who I think is the very best) look at Cordy Glenn's footwork and IMAGINE if he is going to be able to handle NFL DL on a consistently good or great basis, no one knows anything. It's just a guess. And some guys guess a little more correctly than other guys, but if you look at their overall ratings of all the players on their boards five years down the line, if they were right about one out of three, they are the very best in the business.

 

I love what you're saying about the real randomness, or odds, of these draft projections. I, too, agree, that the whole thing is a crap shoot. I do, however, disagree on one point - there are some college kids you just know are going to be good in the NFL. Not a ton, but there are some that just stand out. Dareus is one. Everyone knew he'd be a good pro. I'd also say an example was Calvin Johnson. Another - J.J. Watt.

There are college kids that just have an "it" factor about them. They are the kind of bodies that just transcend normal limitations. I suggest there are some "sure thing picks", that you know will be good. You just cannot predict GREATNESS.

[Cash]

I love what you're saying about the real randomness, or odds, of these draft projections. I, too, agree, that the whole thing is a crap shoot. I do, however, disagree on one point - there are some college kids you just know are going to be good in the NFL. Not a ton, but there are some that just stand out. Dareus is one. Everyone knew he'd be a good pro. I'd also say an example was Calvin Johnson. Another - J.J. Watt.

There are college kids that just have an "it" factor about them. They are the kind of bodies that just transcend normal limitations. I suggest there are some "sure thing picks", that you know will be good. You just cannot predict GREATNESS.

I don't want to put words in Kelly's mouth, but I think the natural counter-argument is to have you (or whomever) go on record with your "sure thing" prospects before each draft. It might take a couple of years, but you'll eventually be wrong about a few.

 

Personally, I think I fall somewhere between the two of you. I don't think there's really any sure thing, but some guys seem like they're very very close. Dareus is a great example. I viewed him as a 0% risk before the draft last year. Which was probably over-optimistic, but not that far off.