Where were you when it all went wrong?

[bbb]

For some reason nobody ever talks about that but it was def one of the worst decisions in franchise history. Never understood it. Flutie took over for them after Johnson led them to an 0-3 start and got hurt and then took them to the playoffs. It was also the same year the bills lost to the patriots in foxboro because they got flagged for pass interference on a last second hail Mary. The whole bills team left the field before the game was actually over because of the ridiculousness of the call. Either way i was 12 years old and still remember how upset I was of hearing on espn that Johnson was starting over flutie against the titans just because johnson played well in the throwaway game against the colts that we decided to sit our starting qb (flutie) so he would not get injured. Only the bills would make a stupid decision like that. Flutie was a winner. No Jim Kelly but still a winner

 

The Johnson starting the Titans playoff game was the '99 season. The 0-3 start that Flutie brought us back from was the '98 season (his arm really was shot in '99), as was that horrible Patriots game.

[Juror#8]

The defining event was the firing of Polian. Period.

 

Yes, the Bills continued to win for a few years after that. It wasn't as though anyone in the organization was prepared to say, "Polian is gone, let's immediately cut every player he ever drafted." The nucleus Polian had assembled provided dividends years after his firing.

 

John Butler's first draft occurred in 1992. Butler's first round pick was used on John Fina. Fina was consistently among the bottom third of starting LTs. Other than him and a (somewhat) decent safety (Kurt Schultz), the Bills came up empty in Butler's first draft.

 

Butler's second draft was even more disappointing. The first round pick was squandered on a DB--on Thomas Smith, in fact. He left Buffalo after seven years. Their second round pick was used on John Parella, DE. Parella had a very good career--for the San Diego Chargers. He only spent one year in Buffalo before he and the Bills parted ways. Other than those two guys, nobody in particular was drafted that year.

 

In 1994, Butler used his first round pick on Jeff Burris--a CB who immediately went first-contract-and-out. Other than Burris, the only notable acquisition that draft was Sam Rogers, a reasonably solid LB.

 

In 1995, Butler added a Pro Bowl OG in the form of Ruben Brown. He also added another reasonably solid LB in John Holecek.

 

1996 was a better draft than usual for Butler: he added Eric Moulds (WR) in the first round, and Jay Riemersma (TE) in the 7th.

 

In 1997 Butler returned to form: every player from that draft was a bust. You could also say the same thing about the 1998 draft, although Sam Cowart would have been a very good player if it hadn't been for that injury.

 

The first round pick of the 1999 draft was used on Antowain Winfield, a very good CB who was allowed to go first-contract-and-out. The second round pick was used on Peerless Price--a WR whom the Bills would later trade away for Atlanta's first round pick. Other than those two, nobody good was picked that year.

 

The 2000 draft had more busts than a Victoria's Secret catalog.

 

That represented nine years of drafting. Nine years during which the core Polian had put together grew gradually older, then retired. Butler added only two new core players: Eric Moulds and Ruben Brown. One could also argue that Butler deserves credit for having added Antoine Winfield, and that the blame for Winfield's early departure rests with TD. However, Polian allowed other first round CBs--especially Burris--to leave Buffalo in a real hurry. Had Butler still been the GM when Winfield's first contract expired, would Butler have been as casual about Winfield's departure as he had been about Burris's?

 

Using nine years' worth of drafts to obtain a good WR and OG, and some solid ILBs and a TE, is not the way to "reBilld" the team of the Polian era. Butler's drafts brought the Bills precisely nothing at the following crucial positions: QB, LT, NT, RDE (3-4), pass rushing OLB (3-4). It was Butler's failure to find talent at these positions, in combination with the critical injury to Paup, which most greatly contributed to the 3-13 season of 2001.

 

The firing of Polian set the stage for roughly two decades of subsequent failure.

 

Excellent analysis.

 

My goal with this thread was to find a common denominator or, as Timmo1805 very accurately described, find:

 

"[the]period in time when while maybe the wheels hadn't come off the bus, the mechanic in charge forgot to double check that the lug nuts were tightened and thereafter it was only a matter of time."

 

Looking over that decade of drafts in the 1990s (which I hadn't done priorly) is illuminating. It seems as if those drafts were just as fruitless, if not more so, then the last decade of drafting (2000-present). With that said, one of the most impactful issues has been the two decades of bad drafts. We always talk about the drafts since 2000, 2003 or 2007, but that doesn't tell the tale. It really has been bad drafting since 1993. Hopefully that realization can get someone on the path of fixing this train.

 

When I say that out loud, it is sooooo deflating, and unbelieveble: "20 years of pathetic drafting."

 

So throw a bone to the "Ralph's ownership since 1959" crowd because he is the one making the GM decisions. Subsequent to Polian, Ralph hired Butler. Butler (as Edwards' Arm articulated so well) ran the franchise into the ground with draft decisions that didn't bear fruit. It seems as if the franchise, to this day, hasn't recovered from that.

 

Presumptively, an organization should always be upgrading and supplementing positional needs during the draft. That hasn't been the case in Buffalo for sooo long. Draft day in Buffalo has been about back-filling talent and wholesale acquisition of player resources. That can only be the result of 20 years worth of a dearth of talent. That 20 years tracks back to Polian's exit. So there's one for the "Polian being fired" folks.

 

So did Nix start with 2 1/2 strikes? Can anyone backfill that level of talent void in even 5 years?

 

But I digress.

 

I think that the more proximate issue has been the lack of a consistent QB presence. Interestingly enough, that tracks directly to Polian's departure (which I'm beginning to think is the "inciting incident"). I'm not sure is Ralph's stewardship can be seen as the proximate cause or even an inciting incident. Metaphorically, Ralph is running the train but I'm not sure that he is any more to blame than the guy who gives keys to a drunk friend of whom he isn't aware of their level of intoxication. Maybe there is a case there for negligent entrustment...but I'm not sure if he is the proximate cause if an accident happens. He is just the conduit through which a bunch of independent circumstances coalesced.

 

Many here mentioned the departure of Kelly, Thomas, Reed, Smith. Those are important inasmuch as their critical role was never replaced by young, eager, motivated, impactful talent. Those team elders came and went just as in any natural team evolution context; but there was no strong and foundational GM presence ensuring continuity and smoothness post-Kelly/Smith/Thomas/Reed. Instead, their departure was a smack in the face. That is why their departure seems like such a watershed moment...because it overlapped with inadequate GM decision-making.

[st. pete gogolak]

The defining event was the firing of Polian. Period.

 

Yes, the Bills continued to win for a few years after that. It wasn't as though anyone in the organization was prepared to say, "Polian is gone, let's immediately cut every player he ever drafted." The nucleus Polian had assembled provided dividends years after his firing.

 

John Butler's first draft occurred in 1992. Butler's first round pick was used on John Fina. Fina was consistently among the bottom third of starting LTs. Other than him and a (somewhat) decent safety (Kurt Schultz), the Bills came up empty in Butler's first draft.

 

Butler's second draft was even more disappointing. The first round pick was squandered on a DB--on Thomas Smith, in fact. He left Buffalo after seven years. Their second round pick was used on John Parella, DE. Parella had a very good career--for the San Diego Chargers. He only spent one year in Buffalo before he and the Bills parted ways. Other than those two guys, nobody in particular was drafted that year.

 

In 1994, Butler used his first round pick on Jeff Burris--a CB who immediately went first-contract-and-out. Other than Burris, the only notable acquisition that draft was Sam Rogers, a reasonably solid LB.

 

In 1995, Butler added a Pro Bowl OG in the form of Ruben Brown. He also added another reasonably solid LB in John Holecek.

 

1996 was a better draft than usual for Butler: he added Eric Moulds (WR) in the first round, and Jay Riemersma (TE) in the 7th.

 

In 1997 Butler returned to form: every player from that draft was a bust. You could also say the same thing about the 1998 draft, although Sam Cowart would have been a very good player if it hadn't been for that injury.

 

The first round pick of the 1999 draft was used on Antowain Winfield, a very good CB who was allowed to go first-contract-and-out. The second round pick was used on Peerless Price--a WR whom the Bills would later trade away for Atlanta's first round pick. Other than those two, nobody good was picked that year.

 

The 2000 draft had more busts than a Victoria's Secret catalog.

 

That represented nine years of drafting. Nine years during which the core Polian had put together grew gradually older, then retired. Butler added only two new core players: Eric Moulds and Ruben Brown. One could also argue that Butler deserves credit for having added Antoine Winfield, and that the blame for Winfield's early departure rests with TD. However, Polian allowed other first round CBs--especially Burris--to leave Buffalo in a real hurry. Had Butler still been the GM when Winfield's first contract expired, would Butler have been as casual about Winfield's departure as he had been about Burris's?

 

Using nine years' worth of drafts to obtain a good WR and OG, and some solid ILBs and a TE, is not the way to "reBilld" the team of the Polian era. Butler's drafts brought the Bills precisely nothing at the following crucial positions: QB, LT, NT, RDE (3-4), pass rushing OLB (3-4). It was Butler's failure to find talent at these positions, in combination with the critical injury to Paup, which most greatly contributed to the 3-13 season of 2001.

 

The firing of Polian set the stage for roughly two decades of subsequent failure.

 

 

 

This really should have its own thread under the title "Rate John Butler's Reign as Bills' GM". I agree that Polian's firing was the beginning of the end but I think your critique of Butler is too harsh in some respects and not harsh enough in other respects. You're way too hard on Butler's drafts. Butler had a real knack for finding pretty good football players at the bottom of the first round. Fina was a servicable left tackle for a decade. Maybe a grade below someone like a Matt Light. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Burris and Thomas Smith were quality NFL cornerbacks for a long time. Sam Cowert was a great pick. The Antoine Winfield/Peerless Price/Shawn Bryson/Keith Newman draft was a great draft. He hired Wade Phillips, a great DC and a better head coach than the clowns that came after him. He put together the best free agent class in Bills' history (Ted Washington, Bryce Paup and Jim Jeffcoat -all designed to make a 3-4 defense work). On the other hand, he had no concept how to handle a salary cap and gave too much money to scrubs like Ken Irvin and Jerry Ostroski. He had no clue how to find a qb (Todd Collins was a bad pick, traded for Billy Joe Hobart and made one of the two or three worst trades in Bills' history by trading a #1 and a #4 for Rob Johnson and then compounded that mistake by immediately giving him a huge contract before he played a down for the Bills. Of course, he had the guts to sign Flutie so he should get credit for that. And yeah, he had some bad drafts, topped off by the all-time FU to Ralph - the 2000 draft of Erik Flowers, Tavares Tillman and Corey Moore.

 

Given all the above I have to say that John Butler was a seriously overrate GM and clearly is at least partially responsible for the situation the Bills find themselves in today.

[Juror#8]

This really should have its own thread under the title "Rate John Butler's Reign as Bills' GM". I agree that Polian's firing was the beginning of the end but I think your critique of Butler is too harsh in some respects and not harsh enough in other respects. You're way too hard on Butler's drafts. Butler had a real knack for finding pretty good football players at the bottom of the first round. Fina was a servicable left tackle for a decade. Maybe a grade below someone like a Matt Light. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Burris and Thomas Smith were quality NFL cornerbacks for a long time. Sam Cowert was a great pick. The Antoine Winfield/Peerless Price/Shawn Bryson/Keith Newman draft was a great draft. He hired Wade Phillips, a great DC and a better head coach than the clowns that came after him. He put together the best free agent class in Bills' history (Ted Washington, Bryce Paup and Jim Jeffcoat -all designed to make a 3-4 defense work). On the other hand, he had no concept how to handle a salary cap and gave too much money to scrubs like Ken Irvin and Jerry Ostroski. He had no clue how to find a qb (Todd Collins was a bad pick, traded for Billy Joe Hobart and made one of the two or three worst trades in Bills' history by trading a #1 and a #4 for Rob Johnson and then compounded that mistake by immediately giving him a huge contract before he played a down for the Bills. Of course, he had the guts to sign Flutie so he should get credit for that. And yeah, he had some bad drafts, topped off by the all-time FU to Ralph - the 2000 draft of Erik Flowers, Tavares Tillman and Corey Moore.

 

Given all the above I have to say that John Butler was a seriously overrate GM and clearly is at least partially responsible for the situation the Bills find themselves in today.

 

This is essentially my issue with Butler. Almost a full decade and no QB to stabilize the organization. And though Flutie provided much needed energy, the accompanying drama adversely affected the coaching staff and fractured loyalties.

Edited December 13, 2011 by Juror#8