Future of the Bills roster

[BillsVet]

I think your analysis of Pears/Bell/Hairston is right on. Bell has more potential than the other two but he is injury prone and rather soft. A lot of people just don't value quality on the OL and are more than happy to accept mediocrity over what the Bills have had at their worst(like Bell's first two seasons).

 

During the great Peters debate in 2008-09, the standard response when people argued against re-signing Peters was that some SB teams didn't have great OLT's, ergo you don't need one. It was no coincidence those teams typically had great QB's who mitigated the lack of great offensive lines.

 

Amid all this OT talk, I can certainly see this team prioritizing the pass rush in the first round next year. I doubt they'll spend in UFA (they've steadily spent less every year since 2006), so once again the draft will have to provide most of the talent. It's just a lot to ask rookies year after year to fill major holes.

[Orton's Arm]

Yeah let's be clear, the Bills problems on draft day date back to the beginning. That's how you end up with less than 40% winning seasons in your history. . It can't be any clearer than you point out......half of the top picks spent on RB's and DB's is a very large sample of 40 years.

 

RB is the easiest position in the league to stock with guys who can get the job done. End of story. There is no excuse for drafting 3 of them in the first round over 7 years and ending up with a UDFA starting for you. If the Bills never pick another RB in round 1 they would probably be better off.

 

It's not easy to find excellent CB's, but if there is one position on defense that can be covered up by strength at other positions, it remains CB.

 

I know it's an arguable point, but IMO even great CB's don't do much for your run defense. At lot of big plays are made on the perimeter, but those plays are made possible (or prevented) by what happens at the LOS and in the pocket. A great front 7 improves both the pass defense and the run defense.

 

No, you can't move Spencer Johnson to CB and cover him up. But IMO it's better to have average talent out there than it is to have average talent in the front 7. I'd even argue that it's easier to cover up a CB than a safety. Look at what the Bills did to the Chiefs in week one when Piscatelli had to step in for Eric Berry. You can exploit both run and pass defense in that case. The rub being that safety is probably the second easiest position to fill with quality, essentially the RB of the defense.

 

As for the QB.........it's the most impactful, most important position on the team. And it's not like they have had good QB play, which might have made them not want to venture their top pick on a QB prospect. They have probably had good QB play in about 20 of their seasons, or essentially, about as many seasons as they have had a winning record.

 

I have said this many times, the Bills could have used their top pick in the draft on a QB for the past x number of years (let's say 12) and not be any worse than they are now. I have been told such a move have killed their situation with regard to the salary cap? They had to pay all the other mediocre-to-no impact players they have selected so the answer is that it wouldn't have mattered a bit.

 

They currently have 1 starter (Marcel Dareus) on the team to show for their first pick in any of the last 51 drafts.

 

I kid, but it's true. CJ and Leodis aren't even starters. The next closest thing they have is Kyle Williams, a fifth round pick which was acquired in trade with Houston for 1996 first round pick Eric Moulds.

 

If that lack of impact using the Bills methods isn't proof that the draft needs to be treated like an ongoing process......then I don't know what is.

Very strong post! Too often, the Bills have approached the draft looking for immediate results or quick fixes, instead of building toward a clear long-term plan. Even when they have had a long-term plan of sorts, it hasn't been a very good one.

 

Take the second half of the TD era for example. His long-term plan for the offense--such as it was, and what there was of it--seems to have been based on speed. Starting in 2003, TD used early draft picks to add the following players: Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Kevin Everett, J.P. Losman. Each of those players represented a speed upgrade over the guy he was intended to replace. In addition, Losman's strong arm would allow him to connect on passes deep downfield. That plan failed for a variety of reasons, including the fact that mentally limited QBs typically fail in the NFL, and that it's hard to have a great deep passing game when you don't have an offensive line.

 

There is a better way to build a long-term plan than that! First, I would point out a regression analysis done by the New York Times, which demonstrated that passing offense is four times more important than rushing offense, and that passing defense is four times more important than rushing defense. (And no, there was nothing in the analysis to justify the "offense puts people in the stands, but defense wins championships" idiocy you hear so often. Offense and defense are equally important in winning games.)

 

It's been said that a QB's best friends are his running back and his defense. That's absolutely false! A QB's best friends are his offensive line and his receiving corps. The only reason coaches and front office people talk about surrounding young QBs with good RBs and defenses is because they have mixed feelings about trusting the shiny new QB they just drafted to make plays. The thought of putting the game into his hands makes them nervous, so they draft RBs and defensive players in hopes that they'll have to ask the QB to do almost nothing. Such hopes are ridiculous. Sooner or later the shiny new QB will be called on to make plays, regardless of how hard coaches and general managers work to avoid having that happen. When (not if) he's asked to make clutch plays, it would really help if he's given the tools he needs to succeed! Look at how much more Steve Young accomplished with the 49ers than he did with the Bucs. The 49ers gave Young a good OL and a good receiving corps. The Bucs focused their draft day resources on RBs and the defense, even though their OL was a joke and their receiving corps was mediocre.

 

If the three most critical components of a good passing attack are (in order) a good QB, a good OL, and a good receiving corps, the two most critical components of a good pass defense are a good pass rush and good pass coverage. Therefore, teams should focus their early draft picks on those five areas.

 

On the surface, the veritable ocean of early draft picks the Bills have poured out on DBs could be justifiable based on the above list, because they address one of the five key areas. But over the last decade, there have been 3.5 times when the Bills allowed their DB with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment to leave via free agency. Those DBs include Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Jabari Greer, and Donte Whitner. Whitner is the 0.5, because it's highly debatable as to whether he truly represented the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment when he left, and because his play has since been eclipsed by Wilson and Byrd. The only reason he's mentioned at all was because when he left, most other Bills' DBs were either too old (McGee, Florence) or too young or unproven (Byrd, Wilson) to be considered both youthful and proven. The other only reason was because a 3.5 reference was clearly necessary!

 

If a team decides that its best DBs will be allowed to go first-contract-and-out, then any early draft picks it uses on DBs cannot be considered a serious attempt to build the long-term core of the team. I would also argue that, of the five items on the list, DBs are probably the least important. If it's a choice between Aaron Rodgers and Darrell Revis, you take Aaron Rodgers!!!!

 

Overall, I would rank the importance of the positions as follows:

 

1. QB

2. Pass rush

3. OL/pass protection

4. WRs

5. Pass coverage

 

I realize the above places greater importance on offense versus defense. My thinking is this: in order to win the Super Bowl, you almost have to have a franchise QB. If you're doing that anyway, it would make sense to give him the tools he needs to succeed. In previous years' playoff games, the Patriots' defense was often very effective at shutting down Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense, precisely because Manning's offensive supporting cast had been dominated by the Patriots' defense. There's no sense in letting a very valuable asset (a franchise QB) be rendered useless because of the lack of a sufficiently strong supporting cast!

 

The Bills have very seriously neglected the first and third items on the list on draft day. In addition, they have neglected the fifth item on the list when it's come time to extend DBs currently on the roster. Instead, they have chosen to squander their scant financial resources on overpriced and overhyped free agents from other teams, such as Lawyer Milloy, Derrick Dockery, Langston Walker, and others. They've let their best DBs go first-contract-and-out, and have used numerous first round picks on the replacements for those departed DBs.

 

As far as I'm concerned, the correct allocation of the Bills' first picks of the draft should be as follows:

 

1. QB: 20% of the time. (Current track record: 3.8%, if you count Rob Johnson and half of Kelly.) The only reason this number should ever be less than 20% is if the Bills are able to achieve franchise-level play while using fewer than 20% of their first picks of the draft. Obviously, the Bills have failed to find a franchise QB ever since Kelly hung up his cleats.

2. Pass rush: 25%. You want more than one good pass rusher, which is why this number is higher than for QB.

3. OTs: 15%. The focus here should be on OTs known for their pass protection, not necessarily their run blocking. Run blocking is a nice bonus, but pass protection is essential. (Current track record: 5%.)

4. WRs: 10%.

5. DBs: 10%. (Current track record: 25%.) Drafting one first round cornerback every ten years, and keeping him here the entirety of his career, seems about right.

6. Other positions: 15%. Most of this 15% should be used on players who can contribute to the pass offense or pass defense. Pass catching TEs, RBs who can be Thurman Thomas-like on third-and-long, interior OL who contribute to pass protection, etc.

 

The above does not represent a hard and fast rules set. Every draft day strategy needs to be flexible based on the quality of the players actually available. But the emphasis should always be on obtaining strength at the QB position first, OL and pass rush second, DBs and receiving threats third, and everyone else fourth.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Edwards' Arm

[Tcali]

Offensive keepers are Fitz, Jackson, Johnson, Wood, Leveitre, Hairston, and Chandler.

Defensive keepers are Kyle Williams, Dareus, Barnet, Byrd, and maybe A. Williams, Sheppard and Searcy.

 

Everybody else sucks !!

i agree w exc of sheppard. the problem is practically every other team has more keepers than we do. and two of our keepers--kyle and wood--lets hope their injuries are not chronic. so-with this p*ss poor organization-how do we make up that ground?

[Pass the Pipe]

Very strong post! Too often, the Bills have approached the draft looking for immediate results or quick fixes, instead of building toward a clear long-term plan. Even when they have had a long-term plan of sorts, it hasn't been a very good one.

 

Take the second half of the TD era for example. His long-term plan for the offense--such as it was, and what there was of it--seems to have been based on speed. Starting in 2003, TD used early draft picks to add the following players: Willis McGahee, Lee Evans, Roscoe Parrish, Kevin Everett, J.P. Losman. Each of those players represented a speed upgrade over the guy he was intended to replace. In addition, Losman's strong arm would allow him to connect on passes deep downfield. That plan failed for a variety of reasons, including the fact that mentally limited QBs typically fail in the NFL, and that it's hard to have a great deep passing game when you don't have an offensive line.

 

There is a better way to build a long-term plan than that! First, I would point out a regression analysis done by the New York Times, which demonstrated that passing offense is four times more important than rushing offense, and that passing defense is four times more important than rushing defense. (And no, there was nothing in the analysis to justify the "offense puts people in the stands, but defense wins championships" idiocy you hear so often. Offense and defense are equally important in winning games.)

 

It's been said that a QB's best friends are his running back and his defense. That's absolutely false! A QB's best friends are his offensive line and his receiving corps. The only reason coaches and front office people talk about surrounding young QBs with good RBs and defenses is because they have mixed feelings about trusting the shiny new QB they just drafted to make plays. The thought of putting the game into his hands makes them nervous, so they draft RBs and defensive players in hopes that they'll have to ask the QB to do almost nothing. Such hopes are ridiculous. Sooner or later the shiny new QB will be called on to make plays, regardless of how hard coaches and general managers work to avoid having that happen. When (not if) he's asked to make clutch plays, it would really help if he's given the tools he needs to succeed! Look at how much more Steve Young accomplished with the 49ers than he did with the Bucs. The 49ers gave Young a good OL and a good receiving corps. The Bucs focused their draft day resources on RBs and the defense, even though their OL was a joke and their receiving corps was mediocre.

 

If the three most critical components of a good passing attack are (in order) a good QB, a good OL, and a good receiving corps, the two most critical components of a good pass defense are a good pass rush and good pass coverage. Therefore, teams should focus their early draft picks on those five areas.

 

On the surface, the veritable ocean of early draft picks the Bills have poured out on DBs could be justifiable based on the above list, because they address one of the five key areas. But over the last decade, there have been 3.5 times when the Bills allowed their DB with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment to leave via free agency. Those DBs include Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Jabari Greer, and Donte Whitner. Whitner is the 0.5, because it's highly debatable as to whether he truly represented the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment when he left, and because his play has since been eclipsed by Wilson and Byrd. The only reason he's mentioned at all was because when he left, most other Bills' DBs were either too old (McGee, Florence) or too young or unproven (Byrd, Wilson) to be considered both youthful and proven. The other only reason was because a 3.5 reference was clearly necessary!

 

If a team decides that its best DBs will be allowed to go first-contract-and-out, then any early draft picks it uses on DBs cannot be considered a serious attempt to build the long-term core of the team. I would also argue that, of the five items on the list, DBs are probably the least important. If it's a choice between Aaron Rodgers and Darrell Revis, you take Aaron Rodgers!!!!

 

Overall, I would rank the importance of the positions as follows:

 

1. QB

2. Pass rush

3. OL/pass protection

4. WRs

5. Pass coverage

 

I realize the above places greater importance on offense versus defense. My thinking is this: in order to win the Super Bowl, you almost have to have a franchise QB. If you're doing that anyway, it would make sense to give him the tools he needs to succeed. In previous years' playoff games, the Patriots' defense was often very effective at shutting down Peyton Manning and the Colts' offense, precisely because Manning's offensive supporting cast had been dominated by the Patriots' defense. There's no sense in letting a very valuable asset (a franchise QB) be rendered useless because of the lack of a sufficiently strong supporting cast!

 

The Bills have very seriously neglected the first and third items on the list on draft day. In addition, they have neglected the fifth item on the list when it's come time to extend DBs currently on the roster. Instead, they have chosen to squander their scant financial resources on overpriced and overhyped free agents from other teams, such as Lawyer Milloy, Derrick Dockery, Langston Walker, and others. They've let their best DBs go first-contract-and-out, and have used numerous first round picks on the replacements for those departed DBs.

 

As far as I'm concerned, the correct allocation of the Bills' first picks of the draft should be as follows:

 

1. QB: 20% of the time. (Current track record: 3.8%, if you count Rob Johnson and half of Kelly.) The only reason this number should ever be less than 20% is if the Bills are able to achieve franchise-level play while using fewer than 20% of their first picks of the draft. Obviously, the Bills have failed to find a franchise QB ever since Kelly hung up his cleats.

2. Pass rush: 25%. You want more than one good pass rusher, which is why this number is higher than for QB.

3. OTs: 15%. The focus here should be on OTs known for their pass protection, not necessarily their run blocking. Run blocking is a nice bonus, but pass protection is essential. (Current track record: 5%.)

4. WRs: 10%.

5. DBs: 10%. (Current track record: 25%.) Drafting one first round cornerback every ten years, and keeping him here the entirety of his career, seems about right.

6. Other positions: 15%. Most of this 15% should be used on players who can contribute to the pass offense or pass defense. Pass catching TEs, RBs who can be Thurman Thomas-like on third-and-long, interior OL who contribute to pass protection, etc.

 

The above does not represent a hard and fast rules set. Every draft day strategy needs to be flexible based on the quality of the players actually available. But the emphasis should always be on obtaining strength at the QB position first, OL and pass rush second, DBs and receiving threats third, and everyone else fourth.

 

Excellent analysis, I couldn't agree more; by the way who are the running backs in Green Bay and New England anyways? What I would really like to understand is how much money does Buffalo put into collegiate scouting and player personnel in general. All we see are bargin basement efforts around player contracts and free agents, I can just imagine what kind of money is being spent of football operations including fitness facilities; it has to be next to nothing?